So I was trying to figure out how you'd even sell that many so fast, but if they are using march 31st, 2023 as the 2022 fy end, that could break down to something seriously optimistic but possible.
FY 2016 2.7m ltd
FY 2017 20m ltd (17.3m)
FY 2018 40m ltd (20m)
FY 2019 63m ltd (23m)
FY 2020 88m ltd (25m)
FY 2021 110m ltd (22m)
FY 2022 130m ltd (20m)
Seems even optimistic to me, and I'm pretty bullish on Nintendo, but it's not the 5 years I first thought it was, this is possible if it sells like the Wii but with a longer sales life cycle thanks to Nintendo's support and being far more future proof of a platform than Wii was.
Switch does benefit from revisions that Wii really never got, at least "upgrades" like the DS and 3DS received, and while Switch doesn't have a Wii Sports, it does seem to have a long life cycle infront of it, with Nvidia making comments about 20 year relationship and Nintendo is a poor position to introduce a new handheld that isn't part of the Switch brand.
Remember Nintendo didn't just sell 100m+ Wii units and 150m+ DS units, it sold about 260m gaming units during this time, if Switch doesn't have the driving force behind Wii and handheld gaming has suffered, Switch could still easily hit 130m LTD in just over 6 years with even a 50% reduction to their overall market share, and while some people might point out that Wii and DS had overlap, I assume Switch revisions will have overlaps too, I've owned 3 DS systems and 2 3DS systems, I'll pick up the next Switch revision with a power increase to put it on par with current gen consoles and the power increase after that.
Ultimately, my prediction for the Switch is 100m by April 1st 2022, but I don't expect the platform to see a replacement for at least 5 years after that. DS lasted 8 years, but I expect Switch to last 10 years minimum, so 150m? well given enough time and enough sustained demand, sure anything is possible.