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[watdaeff4]

I don't think so. Wii and DS sold 90% on first party games. Sure there were a few decent 'hardcore' third party efforts at launch like RE4 and COD3 and Tiger Woods but after third parties shat the bed with Madden Babiez and light gun cheapos, it was all on Nintendo, and they did with with New Super Mario Bros, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart, Nintendogs, Brain Training, Mario Galaxy, Pokemon, Animal Crossing etc.

Now ALL their effort is going to be on one platform. It could potentially be getting the next Brain Training AND the next Wii Sports AND main Pokemon AND handheld Animal Crossing AND Console Mario AND Splatoon etc etc. Add to this it's a platform people really like (as opposed to the divisive 3DS and Wii U), and they can carry it all themselves.

I'm not disregarding your points as they are valid. But just for clarification, what are your expectations regarding Switch sales?

 

[nordique]

Happy for Nintendo!

 

[MrCaliaztec]

I'd love to see GTA V release, as I think that would sell a shit load of units. I could actually imagine a lot of people double/triple dipping on that game. I wonder if L.A Noire is almost a test for Rockstar.

I agree with you with regards to your second point, Doom especially is going to be a hard sell. I'm quite pessimistic at the minute but I think all of Bethesdas titles are going to do crappy numbers.

I want to be wrong, as I have a weird affection towards Nintendo, but my vibe at the minute with regards to how things will be next year on switch is third party wise, a Fifa 19 legacy edition next year, and maybe some token Ubisoft games, a thriving indie scene and Nintendo exclusives.



Yeah it's not great to browse the store. Honestly there were a lot of random titles I've never heard of before, like some serious shovelware bottom of the barrel type shit.

I literally own everything that plays games haha, Nintendo has fallen far from graces for me since the Wii days but they are doing a lot of good with the Switch restored a lot of faith in people and earned a lot of second chances from fans.

I just want to see it continue, I want good first party titles. We got some really great software already but I’m worried that it’ll start to slow down. I’m afraid Nintendo put all the eggs in the basket for year one and am curious to see them maintain the momentum but they gotta continue to follow up I am super curious what 2018 will hold without Zelda, Mario, and Splatoon.

We will assuredly see Mario Maker and Smash 4 ports and people have mentioned Kirby and Yoshi but the last two outings on WiiU for those franchises didn’t sell well at all. Really hoping to see a return to form for Kirby... no more clay or other gimmicks... give us Kirby maybe with an open world and tons of abilities to copy and mix and match. As for Yoshi I don’t really know what they can do with Yoshi to freshen it up, Wooly world was fun but fairly boring towards the end, and I wonder what new they could do with maybe returning to Yoshis Island.

It’s totally up in the air but I gotta question if Nintendo truly has a strong line up for 2018 or will it be a few second tier first party releases and them hoping to attach all the 2017 first party titles to 2018 new switch buyers.

 

[NHarmonic.]

Happy for Nintendo's success. They are needed in the industry.

 

[Malakai]

The 3DS is going to end up selling half of what it's predecessor sold, while being a system that had a severe price cut to save it from complete disaster, which hurt Nintendo's financials badly for quite some time. They also had to divert software resources to buoy the 3DS which inevitably hurt the WiiU. Does it really strike you as a success?

So, just because the 3DS only sold half of what it predecessor sold, Nintendo should go third party? Even if we approach this from a financial perspective, should Sony and/or Microsoft go third party due to the staggering financial losses sustained by those two during generation 7? The summation of Nintendo losses (~120.2 billion yen over 3 years) is a drop in the bucket compared to what Sony and Microsoft loss during the gen 7.

Why doesn't anybody say, I can't wait to play Forza Horizon 3 on the Switch?

They had to divert software resources because of third parties. For the 3DS, Nintendo was letting third parties have their day in the sun due to third parties were complaining that Nintendo first party games were taking all the sales. So, Nintendo launch the 3DS with just Nintendodogs and PilotWings. Next, thing we know the 3DS is tanking in sales and third parties were pulling away from 3DS like Nintendo had a deadly and easily infectious disease. Yet, here we are 6 years, 7 months and 23 days from it Japanese debut (in the U.S. it is 6 years, 6 months and 22 days) and the 3DS is still chugging along in sales with basically Nintendo only support with minor Japanese support.

Anyway, even if though the Wii U was a failure in sales, the 3DS demonstrated that Nintendo damn near carry a platform by itself something the other two holder platforms can't do.

 

[Jonneh3003]

Switch is simply an appealing system. I know lots of buddies eyeing one up for Christmas!

 

[watdaeff4]

snip

I just want to see it continue, I want good first party titles. We got some really great software already but I’m worried that it’ll start to slow down. I’m afraid Nintendo put all the eggs in the basket for year one and am curious to see them maintain the momentum but they gotta continue to follow up I am super curious what 2018 will hold without Zelda, Mario, and Splatoon.

snip

It’s totally up in the air but I gotta question if Nintendo truly has a strong line up for 2018 or will it be a few second tier first party releases and them hoping to attach all the 2017 first party titles to 2018 new switch buyers.

Of course 2018 isn't as strong as 2017.

IMO Nintendo realized after the WiiU flop and the 3DS slow start , it needed to start out strong with the Switch to get initial hype and momentum.

I still contend that while the games for 2018 aren't as strong, if they are good they will be fine in addition to the ports.

It still will come down to the need for some 3rd party support

 

[boiled goose]

Of course 2018 isn't as strong as 2017.

IMO Nintendo realized after the WiiU flop and the 3DS slow start , it needed to start out strong with the Switch to get initial hype and momentum.

I still contend that while the games for 2018 aren't as strong, if they are good they will be fine in addition to the ports.

It still will come down to the need for some 3rd party support

We don't know what's coming out in 2018 beyond quarter 1.

 

[Takat]

I do believe we'll see more new IPs from Nintendo, just for the fact that if they used to have a Zelda handheld team and a Zelda console team, they don't need both of them. Same with Mario, etc. I don't see Nintendo having another pure handheld that's not related to the Switch.

 

[Jonneh3003]

Just because we don't know 2018's lineup doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Nintendo tend to release games months after their announcement. I wouldn't be shocked if January opens with something big.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

We don't know what's coming out in 2018 beyond quarter 1.

We probably don't even have a full picture of quarter 1 either.

 

[OCD Guy]

We will assuredly see Mario Maker and Smash 4 ports and people have mentioned Kirby and Yoshi but the last two outings on WiiU for those franchises didn't sell well at all. Really hoping to see a return to form for Kirby... no more clay or other gimmicks... give us Kirby maybe with an open world and tons of abilities to copy and mix and match. As for Yoshi I don't really know what they can do with Yoshi to freshen it up, Wooly world was fun but fairly boring towards the end, and I wonder what new they could do with maybe returning to Yoshis Island.

I'm still wondering what I'd like more, new I.P's or for Nintendo to delve into their treasure chest and bring back the likes of F-Zero, a new Donkey Kong etc

I'd love to see a sequel to Captain Toad to be honest, what a surprise that game was....Oh and Bayonetta 3 would be good lol

The more I think about it, Nintendo have so many damn good i.p's that it'll make the Switch worthwhile even if third party support becomes Wii U tier...

 

[Thud]

Sad to see Pokken bomb. That game was legit.

 

[James Scott]

There’s probably no beating Mario Odyssey and BOTW in the same year, but 2018 can still probably be good.
We didn’t know any of 2017’s line up until January and even then pokken and rabbids was announced in June.
Right now I think we have no dates for any switch game in 2017, likely focusing on Mario for now.
Maybe a December or January direct

 

[conpfreak]

Of course 2018 isn't as strong as 2017.

IMO Nintendo realized after the WiiU flop and the 3DS slow start , it needed to start out strong with the Switch to get initial hype and momentum.

I still contend that while the games for 2018 aren't as strong, if they are good they will be fine in addition to the ports.

It still will come down to the need for some 3rd party support

I wouldn't count out a strong 2018 for Nintendo. We're expecting a new Metroid Prime game, a mainline Pokemon(!) game, a new mainline Fire Emblem game, whatever Retro is working on, a possible Smash Bros. port/remaster, and many unannounced third party titles. That's excludes DLC for some of the heavy hitters of this year. Plus, internal 3DS game development is coming to an end, so resources are all being diverted to the Switch now.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Very true I guess my main fear is with a Zelda, 3D Mario, and Splatoon all year one I gotta hope that they have follow ups already planned for those... I mean when it came to the WiiU we got a single 3D Mario, we shared a Zelda title with the Switch launch... I guess I’m just hoping that 1st party main franchises have stuff lined up and planned because we can’t hold out 4-6 years for another Zelda, or 3D Mario... you know

No other N franchises attach as well as Mario, Zelda, MK and Pokemon so they need to keep those coming.

Yoshi, Kirby and FE don’t have the attach or push for console sales like the former

I think you're forgetting some big franchises. Animal crossing and smash bros both have the chance to sell 10 million plus and are right up there with Nintendos biggest franchises.

They also have a lot more mid tier titles like pikmin, metroid, luigis mansion etc. There is also the opportunity for new IPS.

 

[boiled goose]

I think you're forgetting some big franchises. Animal crossing and smash bros both have the chance to sell 10 million plus and are right up there with Nintendos biggest franchises.

They also have a lot more mid tier titles like pikmin, metroid, luigis mansion etc. There is also the opportunity for new IPS.

Brand new 2d mario.
Mario maker.
Pokemon
Smash
Animal crossing.

Lots of big franchises not out yet.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't like how Nintendo says "pieces" for software.

1. "Pcs" reminds me of people who say "thx" instead of thanks.
2. It also reminds me of like a really fat person with just tons of food in their mouth and they are opening their mouth and food is falling out. I don't know why. Maybe it's the sound of the word pieces.

 

[watdaeff4]

We don't know what's coming out in 2018 beyond quarter 1.

I wouldn't count out a strong 2018 for Nintendo. We're expecting a new Metroid Prime game, a mainline Pokemon(!) game, a new mainline Fire Emblem game, whatever Retro is working on, a possible Smash Bros. port/remaster, and many unannounced third party titles. That's excludes DLC for some of the heavy hitters of this year. Plus, internal 3DS game development is coming to an end, so resources are all being diverted to the Switch now.

Fair enough, but 2017 had new games for Mario AND Zelda AND Splatoon, in addition to a Mario Kart port.

As a Switch owner, I would be happy as a clam if 2018 is that strong, but I doubt it will be

EDIT: please note from my posts I'm not shitting on the 2018 known lineup, in fact I said it's "fine"

 

[PSNTheNAC]

Is Smash Wii U getting a Switch port?

 

[OCD Guy]

Fair enough, but 2017 had new games for Mario AND Zelda AND Splatoon, in addition to a Mario Kart port.

As a Switch owner, I would be happy as a clam if 2018 is that strong, but I doubt it will be

The only way 2017 will be beaten is if we get a Mario Kart 9 and Odyssey 2 the same year lol

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Fair enough, but 2017 had new games for Mario AND Zelda AND Splatoon, in addition to a Mario Kart port.

As a Switch owner, I would be happy as a clam if 2018 is that strong, but I doubt it will be

It won't be as strong for many Nintendo fans.

Should see three or four big IP like Animal Crossing, Smash Bros., 2D Zelda/Mario, etc. + lots of mid-tier stuff like Pikmin, Kirby, Fire Emblem, etc.

 

[D.Lo]

I'm not disregarding your points as they are valid. But just for clarification, what are your expectations regarding Switch sales?

I said earlier in the thread the floor is probably 40 million now.

But above that is a fool's errand to predict with much certainty right now. It has still yet to see a single holiday, and has spent most of its life supply constrained in most of the world. All we know about current demand is that it is more than supply.

If I had to make a call, I'd say 80 million+. And it smells like a 100 million device. to me, for a few reasons:

• Nintendo's development consolidated on a single platform - a force that hasn't been seen in 30 years, and they've now had 20 years of practice carrying platforms basically alone too. They sold 250 million Wii/DS basically alone, nobody else even comes close in potential clout.
• Extremely appealing hardware - much better than 3DS or Wii U, and in many ways better than DS and Wii. The console itself is great, people are loving playing anything on it.
• New breakout IP from Nintendo is likely - they just keep doing this. Even the Wii U had Splatoon. If the Switch gets its own 'Wii Sports/Brain Training' type cultural phenomenon game, all bets are off. Or even an existing IP can explode to the next level with a new spin or focus - see Animal Crossing Wild World or Mario Kart Wii (GTA3 and GTA5 are third party examples of this - hitting a whole new order of magnitude with an existing franchise)
• Multiple hardware iterations - it is like a handheld console in one significant way - it can be revised to be smaller, cheaper and feature diverse with a material impact on the machine. Unlike a redesign like a PS4 Slim, which does not affect gameplay. A cheap handheld only revision with integrated controls for kids to play Pokemon is assured IMO.
• Multiple hardware purchases per household - for the same reason as above.

That said, it's not guaranteed. Other things could come onto the market to steal the thunder (see Kinect which became the 'new Wii'). Maybe the market as a whole is in a further contraction phase - Destiny 2's performance is a possible sign of saturation. Maybe a new breakout hit or idea happens elsewhere, PS4, Xbox, iPad who knows.

I think Nintendo have a killer hand, but you are still not guaranteed to win even with a full house.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Regarding 2018 we should remember that Nintendo devs have not been working on 3DS titles for some time now, so the combined output of something like 15 to 20 games a year may start to show up.

Sprinkle in a few third party exclusives (Platinum), a Wii U port or two (Hyrule Warriors deluxe please) and the launch of the virtual console and 2018 will be stacked.

 

[watdaeff4]

I said earlier in the thread the floor is probably 40 million now.

But above that is a fool's errand to predict with much certainty right now. It has still yet to see a single holiday, and has spent most of its life supply constrained in most of the world. All we know about current demand is that it is more than supply.

If I had to make a call, I'd say 80 million+. And it smells like a 100 million device. to me, for a few reasons:

• Nintendo's development consolidated on a single platform - a force that hasn't been seen in 30 years, and they've now had 20 years of practice carrying platforms basically alone too. They sold 250 million Wii/DS basically alone, nobody else even comes close in potential clout.
• Extremely appealing hardware - much better than 3DS or Wii U, and in many ways better than DS and Wii. The console itself is great, people are loving playing anything on it.
• New breakout IP from Nintendo is likely - they just keep doing this. Even the Wii U had Splatoon. If the Switch gets its own 'Wii Sports/Brain Training' type cultural phenomenon game, all bets are off. Or even an existing IP can explode to the next level with a new spin or focus - see Animal Crossing Wild World or Mario Kart Wii (GTA3 and GTA5 are third party examples of this - hitting a whole new order of magnitude with an existing franchise)
• Multiple hardware iterations - it is like a handheld console in one significant way - it can be revised to be smaller, cheaper and feature diverse with a material impact on the machine. Unlike a redesign like a PS4 Slim, which does not affect gameplay. A cheap handheld only revision with integrated controls for kids to play Pokemon is assured IMO.
• Multiple hardware purchases per household - for the same reason as above.

That said, it's not guaranteed. Other things could come onto the market to steal the thunder (see Kinect which became the 'new Wii'). Maybe the market as a whole is in a further contraction phase - Destiny 2's performance is a possible sign of saturation. Maybe a new breakout hit or idea happens elsewhere, PS4, Xbox, iPad who knows.

I think Nintendo have a killer hand, but you are still not guaranteed to win even with a full house.

I agree that 40 million is the floor.

I personally expect 60-80 million with the previously mention caveat that if it gets a lot of good 3rd party support it will hit PS4 numbers (>100 million is where I think the PS4 lands)

 

[SuperBlank]

I can't imagine 2018 will be as strong (lineup-wise) for Nintendo as 2017 was, but if they've got that core Pokemon game, Animal Crossing, a Smash port (doubting Smash 5), plus the games we already know for sure about, I'm sure they'll do just fine.

Plausible releases like a new 2d Mario/Mario Maker, Luigi's Mansion 3, Retro's project, etc. can only help.

 

[OCD Guy]

[*]Multiple hardware iterations - it is like a handheld console in one significant way - it can be revised to be smaller, cheaper and feature diverse with a material impact on the machine. Unlike a redesign like a PS4 Slim, which does not affect gameplay. A cheap handheld only revision with integrated controls for kids to play Pokemon is assured IMO.
.

A very good post, however I disagree with the above.

I can't see them releasing a revision that removes the unique selling point of the console. A Switch that can't "Switch" is going to be really confusing.

One of the Wii U's issues was the confusion around the product, so I just can't see Nintendo putting themselves in that position.

Although I wouldn't say never, but I can't see anything like that happening for a very long time.

I think the most likely initial revision will be bigger internal storage, especially if it starts becoming more common that physical copies of games need additional downloads.

After that an X2 soc seems inevitable, although would they introduce a two tier system like PS4 and Pro, or simply save it for the successor....

As someone who's never even used the dock (or detached the Joycons aside from initial set up) I'd love to have had the option to buy a cheaper handheld only unit though.

 

[Zzoram]

A very good post, however I disagree with the above.

I can't see them releasing a revision that removes the unique selling point of the console. A Switch that can't "Switch" is going to be really confusing.

One of the Wii U's issues was the confusion around the brand, so I just can't see Nintendo putting themselves in that position.

Although I wouldn't say never, but I can't see anything like that happening for a very long time.

I think the most likely initial revision will be bigger internal storage, especially if it starts becoming more common that physical copies need additional downloads.

After that an X2 seems inevitable, although would they introduce a two tier system like PS4 and Pro, or simply save it for the successor....

The 2DS is a 3DS that can't 3D and it's great and not confusing many.

 

[ArtHands]

Just because we don't know 2018's lineup doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Nintendo tend to release games months after their announcement. I wouldn't be shocked if January opens with something big.

Yah. Its like many people here still haven’t from the period when Nintendo reveals the Switch early this year. Doom, Pokken, Mario & Rabbids etc didn’t get announced back then.

 

[Trogdor1123]

SNES is the real deal!

 

[OCD Guy]

The 2DS is a 3DS that can't 3D and it's great and not confusing many.

The clue's in the name though. A 2DS is pretty obvious that there's no 3D.

Yes there's nothing stopping them using a different name for a handheld only unit, but I just feel the whole marketing is centred around the detachable joy cons, and hybrid nature of the device.

As I said never say never, but if a handheld only device does release it won't be for a very long time in my opinion. It would just be a terrible idea to release a unit like that any time soon, they'd be cannibalising sales of their own accessories, and going against their own marketing.

 

[Speely]

Sticking to my guns and saying 50m WW by the end of 2020.

 

[Calm Mind]

It won't be as strong for fairweather Nintendo fans.

I believe it can be equal to or stronger than 2017.

 

[James Scott]

I believe it can be equal to or stronger than 2017.

I think that’ll probably be pretty impossible. But I’ll be happy with we get some platinum games action on there

 

[Thud]

As for 2018, it probably misses heavy hitters, but there's potential for more good ass games.

So yeah I'm expecting a larger quantity of games.

 

[MrCaliaztec]

Sticking to my guns and saying 50m WW by the end of 2020.

They are probably sitting just shy of 6m worldwide it’s doable... I mean that’s 44m units over the next 38 months! Gonna take a lot more work on Nintendo’s part keep the software announcements coming!

 

[trixx]

I mean if 2018 has metroid prime (I know it won't do well sales wise), but that's my game of the console right there

It should do decent in 2018, more third parties, indies maybe virtual console... =/

 

[Astral Dog]

The only way 2017 will be beaten is if we get a Mario Kart 9 and Odyssey 2 the same year lol

Switch/Nintendo needs to calm down on Mario after Odyssey imo

 

[Thebullfrog]

I mean if 2018 has metroid prime (I know it won't do well sales wise), but that's my game of the console right there

It should do decent in 2018, more third parties, indies maybe virtual console... =/

I don't think Prime is happening until 2019 at the earliest. By all accounts it seems it was still in pre-production, or very early production when they announced it. I expect we'll see the game at next E3, with a 2019 release date, and this assumes no delays.

 

[gamerMan]

Nintendo's success got Colin talking about gaming.

 

[Luke_Wal]

If MP4 was close to ready for next year, we would have seen footage at E3. At least for Pokémon, TPC had the excuse of not wanting to up-stage US/UM.

While I understand this notion, do you think that Samus Returns would have gotten anywhere close to as much press attention and buzz as it did had MP4 also been at the show? I think this is the exact same scenario - Nintendo is full of surprises, and I wouldn't be surprised if the January Direct showed Metroid footage with a Summer 2018 release (I think even Nintendo knows Metroid is not big enough to be their big fall game like Odyssey is this year).

Kirby, Yoshi, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing (to go along with mobile), Virtual Console, and maybe a handheld-tier $40 Zelda game would be a great second year for Switch, IMO. And that's not even including the inevitable Mario Maker port or Smash Bros port or something completely out of left field.

 

[silva1991]

I think it's safe to say that Pokemon and Metroid arn't 2018 games. I'm expecting a new Smash and Animal Crossing as the biggest Nintendo games for next year and maybe one or two third party exclusive.

 

[OCD Guy]

Switch/Nintendo needs to calm down on Mario after Odyssey imo

That's never going to happen though, 2D mario and Mario maker are almost inevitable.

In an ideal world I'd love to see some new I.P's or even some of their dead franchises brought back to life.

Nintendo's success got Colin talking about gaming.

Is he on GAF? He sounds like one of those 5 people that keep frequenting all of the Switch threads to shit on it?

 

[Hero]

Nintendo's success got Colin talking about gaming.

Colin is dumb as fuck.

 

[Weltall Zero]

Makes all the posts in the other thread saying Nintendo will be third this christmas after Sony and Microsoft even more hilarious, if that's possible.

 

[capylikesgames]

Still in shock at this thing's momentum. I'm currently content over at the PC camp, but as someone who was a Ninty Loyal during the Wii U days, it's cool to see them properly execute the concept, and find success within it. Curious to see this month's results. Went to help my mom find one for my little brother's birthday, and she got the last one. Sadly a bit late for an extra Joycon set, as they were out of stock. Not at all a hunt like back in the Wii days, but clearly an active product.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Nintendo's success got Colin talking about gaming.

Humble as always.

 

[phanphare]

Nintendo's success got Colin talking about gaming.

colin says some dumb shit

sun rise sun set

 

[AusRoachman]

Only had my switch for a month and my gaming time has almost double, love the portability.

Huge first year of games, cant wait to see whats coming next year, i love that they just announce them a month or 2 from release.

 

[Zarovitch]

Nintendo's success got Colin talking about gaming.

Who's that guy?