D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Obviously Abe is trying to do whatever he can to make it look like business as usual in Japan ahead of the Olympics, but it's hard to hide deaths.
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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
- Thread starter keraj37
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Obviously Abe is trying to do whatever he can to make it look like business as usual in Japan ahead of the Olympics, but it's hard to hide deaths.
cryptoadam
Banned
Some good news
www.scmp.com
The last coronavirus patient in Macau to recover was discharged from hospital on Friday, with the casino hub not recording a single new infection for over a month.
Health authorities in Macau announced that the newly discharged woman, 64, was sent to a public health centre for further isolation in the afternoon. Her release meant all 10 Covid-19 cases in the city had recovered.
Macau’s last Covid-19 patient recovers, with no new cases for a month
Casino hub has only recorded 10 infections so far, with health chief praising his bureau’s frontline efforts. Hong Kong has 107 cases and two related deaths.
www.scmp.com
The last coronavirus patient in Macau to recover was discharged from hospital on Friday, with the casino hub not recording a single new infection for over a month.
Health authorities in Macau announced that the newly discharged woman, 64, was sent to a public health centre for further isolation in the afternoon. Her release meant all 10 Covid-19 cases in the city had recovered.
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cryptoadam
Banned
The CCP should be tried for War Crimes over COVID-19
US government should be tried for failure to do what is necessary to help contain an epidemic. A single Chinese businessman has done more for the american people than the entire US regime; Chinese businessman Jack Ma is donating 500 000 COVID-19 test kits and 1 million masks to the U.S.A.
#Phonepunk#
Banned
lol my instagram is full of people complaining about restaurants being full of people this weekend
... and yet how would they know, if they weren't going to those restaurants themselves?
... and yet how would they know, if they weren't going to those restaurants themselves?
off duty ninja
Member
I swear I heard some asshole mumble something shitty about everybody at the store being dumb for panic buying and making his experience worse while my wife and I were getting groceries. Guess what asshole, you're here too! Some people are just so stupid.
eot
Banned
They can't hide the deaths themselves, but they don't need to write COVID-19 on the death certificate
deafmedal
Member
Shit, I’m still eating out. Fuck it. I’m moving hotels tomorrow as long as the project isn’t postponed (and I go home where I won’t eat out) but plan to stock a bit more in the room JIC.
cryptoadam
Banned
Ya they can hide cases but not deaths. And Japan isn't Iran or China, you can't do that shit there. IF there was some giant cover up someone would bust the government.
Sure they can limit testing, but then they should have people dropping dead. Look at Italy where supposdly its so bad people are dying in their homes, cant get into hospitals, morgues are over flowing etc.... If things were that bad it would be like that in Japan and there is no way they could hide that.
I bet in a year from now we are going to read a lot about some countries that did things right and others that completely fubard the situation.
rykomatsu
Member
If there's a huge spike in deaths, it's hard. But if deaths are within a statistical range for any given time of the year, it's not "difficult" to hide.
Chairman Tickles
Banned
Apple, Google ban unofficial coronavirus apps to combat misinformation
bu buh but muh chynah cenzorship!?!
Oh wait...
Where are all the green screen shills to tell us this is now necessary. They were bleating and squealing when Chinese social network and app providers did it.
bu buh but muh chynah cenzorship!?!
Oh wait...
Where are all the green screen shills to tell us this is now necessary. They were bleating and squealing when Chinese social network and app providers did it.
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cryptoadam
Banned
Like I said in the other post, how come they aren't an Italy situation then? If they are hiding things then the hospitals should be over flowing, the dead should not be able to fit in the morgue etc....
We have not heard anything like that with Japan.
At this point with how serious the virus is I think it would be near impossible for a country to hide it from their people and the rest of the world. Even Iran which is probably lying is still putting up huge numbers. There is no way Japan is lying more than Iran.
Captain Zyrain
Member
Good morning lovelies
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
Who?Apple, Google ban unofficial coronavirus apps to combat misinformation
bu buh but muh chynah cenzorship!?!
Oh wait...
Where are all the green screen shills to tell us this is now necessary. They were bleating and squealing when Chinese social network and app providers did it.
I don’t get this. If the coronavirus apparently isn’t bad for the non risk groups WTF are *survival of the fittest rules* implemented?
Jooxed
Gold Member
Looks like DC is starting to lock down nightclubs.
Chairman Tickles
Banned
You new to this thread bro?
I been here since it all began. Gather round children, let me tell you a story.
betrayal
Banned
It's quite simple. The ICU's are generally occupied almost exclusively by elderly patients. If younger patients come in occasionally, you will be given priority. A single younger patient is already enough.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Apple, Google ban unofficial coronavirus apps to combat misinformation
bu buh but muh chynah cenzorship!?!
Oh wait...
Where are all the green screen shills to tell us this is now necessary. They were bleating and squealing when Chinese social network and app providers did it.
No idea what you're talking about in that last paragraph, but Apple and Google ban all sorts of bogus apps and have since the inception of their respective app stores. They are well within their rights to control what is allowed to be sold in their stores.
Cybrwzrd
Banned
That's 50 cases per million residents though. That is when things start going exponential.
Captain Zyrain
Member
We China now?
Chairman Tickles
Banned
Yes, let's just skirt around the hypocrisy like it never happened.
Never gonna happen.
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D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
I'm not buying that the government somehow got all the doctors in the country to lie for the Abe's political benefit.
Yes, let's just skirt around the hypocrisy like it never happened.
Point out specific things that you're talking about. I seriously have no idea. What "censorship" were people complaining about? Is it an apples to apples comparison?
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DunDunDunpachi
Banned
Okay but your non-answer still doesn't help me identify what "green screen shills" contradicted themselves.
Also I've been on the thread since page one.
You might want to tone down the accusations of "shill" by the way, we can all read your posting history, comrade.
Captain Zyrain
Member
Fun Fanboy
Banned
Some hearsay for you all, but a lady at my work just told me her brother works for the government here in CA. Said to expect an announcement at some point for a 3 week lockdown.
Hmmmmm I wonder.
Hmmmmm I wonder.
rykomatsu
Member
I'm not making a statement on whether there is or is not hiding going on. All I'm saying is, if statistically the death rate has not gone above seasonal norms, it's not difficult to re-label cause of death as say..."bacterial pneumonia".
Let's take a hypothetical:
2010 - 100 deaths
2011 - 107 deaths
2012 - 98 deaths
2013 - 92 deaths
2014 - 103 deaths
2015 - 97 deaths
2016 - 112 deaths
2017 - 103 deaths
2018 - 94 deaths
2019 - 106 deaths
Average: 101 +/- 6 deaths / year
But, based on this data and a 99% confidence interval (3x stdev), you can expect an upwards of 101 +/- 18 deaths/year
So let's say in 2020, we see 116 deaths, this might seem high (and does exceed the observation of 112), this is still within what is expected.
Why the death case isn't spiking alarmingly? I have no idea and this isn't intended to address that specific question. If I were to speculate, healthcare not being flooded
- The criteria to be tested is apparently very high (heard this on a news radio stream)
- Fever needs to persist for 4 days
- Other tests need to be carried out first prior to Corona
- Once all tests come back negative, then Corona test is carried out
Edit: Obviously this is an overly simplistic view but...
Let's say of 116, 97 deaths were from "normal" cases and you see 19 cases of "corona", one wouldn't easily see a difference at least with a superficial glance. It's more involved than this, and really depends on how things are ultimately categorized, but someone removed from the nitty gritty likely looks at this type of high level data rather than the specific statistics of how these data are generated.
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Captain Zyrain
Member
Oh shi
cryptoadam
Banned
A little bit more good news
www.jpost.com
Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli biophysicist who won the 2013 Nobel prize for chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems," has become something of a household name in China over the last few months. Although his specialty is not in epidemiology, he accurately forecast the slowing down of the spread of the virus in February, giving hope to those affected by the lockdown.
But far from being a modern-day prophet, he explained in an interview with Calcalist that he simply crunched the numbers.
Levitt's wife, Shoshan Brosh, is a researcher of Chinese art, meaning that the couple regularly travels between America, Israel and China. Consequently, when the virus broke out in Hubei province, Levitt wrote to his Chinese friends in support.
“When they answered us, describing how complicated their situation was, I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers in the hope of reaching some conclusion,” Levitt explained. “The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.”
Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.
But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop," Levitt said. "A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
He doesn't say its over yet
However, that doesn't mean Levitt is dismissive of the precautions being put in place by governments around the world.
“You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt said. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances, a carrier will only infect 1.5 people every three days and the rate will keep going down.”
Isolation and limiting social contact is not the only factor at play, however. In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were.
With the Macau news, Australia maybe having a cure, and this maybe the world isn't ending. Still troubled waters ahead as more countries start hitting their peaks but we can get through this.
Israeli Nobel Laureate: Coronavirus spread is slowing
Michael Levitt praised Israel for its preventative measures. He said most people are naturally immune, and that since the infection rate in China is slowing down, "the end of the pandemic is near."
www.jpost.com
Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli biophysicist who won the 2013 Nobel prize for chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems," has become something of a household name in China over the last few months. Although his specialty is not in epidemiology, he accurately forecast the slowing down of the spread of the virus in February, giving hope to those affected by the lockdown.
But far from being a modern-day prophet, he explained in an interview with Calcalist that he simply crunched the numbers.
Levitt's wife, Shoshan Brosh, is a researcher of Chinese art, meaning that the couple regularly travels between America, Israel and China. Consequently, when the virus broke out in Hubei province, Levitt wrote to his Chinese friends in support.
“When they answered us, describing how complicated their situation was, I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers in the hope of reaching some conclusion,” Levitt explained. “The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.”
Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.
But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop," Levitt said. "A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
He doesn't say its over yet
However, that doesn't mean Levitt is dismissive of the precautions being put in place by governments around the world.
“You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt said. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances, a carrier will only infect 1.5 people every three days and the rate will keep going down.”
Isolation and limiting social contact is not the only factor at play, however. In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were.
With the Macau news, Australia maybe having a cure, and this maybe the world isn't ending. Still troubled waters ahead as more countries start hitting their peaks but we can get through this.
Skyr
Member
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
28 Weeks seems more appropriate, since the whole premise is an outbreak caused by an idiot breaking quarantine.
ThatStupidLion
Member
just watched it on saturday...worse than I remember. i think i like 28 weeks later more.
cryptoadam
Banned
I think either way if Japan is lying or not then they are doing a good job not having their country descend into madness like Italy is.
Maybe they can fudge the numbers for the Olympics, but they can't hide panic from social media, they aren't Iran/China/NK.
So whatever they are doing its working. Either people are recovering and not overwhelming the hospital, numbers are low or whatever. But its a lot better than the shit show in Italy and what soon may be Spain and France. Japan seems to have effectively flattened the curve as they say SO FAR.
Captain Zyrain
Member
Finnish
Smiles and Cries
Member
at 175k cases
www.worldometers.info
Coronavirus Update (Live): 131,897,800 Cases and 2,865,517 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info
Captain Zyrain
Member
cryptoadam
Banned
so if Tom Hanks and that baskeball guy recover from this do you think that will raise peoples spirits? If high profile people recover I can see that giving a lot of hope.
Now god forbid if they don't that will probably cause a lot more panic in people.
Hoping they are ok (and not so people don't panic, I don't want them to die)
Now god forbid if they don't that will probably cause a lot more panic in people.
Hoping they are ok (and not so people don't panic, I don't want them to die)
Smiles and Cries
Member
They will recover. Getting the best care availalble so yeah I would think it would cause a lot of panic if someone getting the best care still dies.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Captain Zyrain
Member
Yeah should be down, yesterday was crazy. Unless other areas are ramping up.
Deaths I don't know if they'll be a steady increase or decrease as not everyone dies at the same rate.
NY:
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
This last week was and this week is going to be fun working in a hypermarket........
I'm changing look
GET READY DEAR CUSTOMERS !!!!!
SHOP SMART SHOP S-MART
Smiles and Cries
Member
I am more curious about French numbers today.
Captain Zyrain
Member
Malaysia closing borders
www.reuters.com
Malaysia closes borders, schools and businesses as virus tally climbs
Malaysia will shut its borders to travellers, restrict internal movement, close schools and universities and order most businesses to shut after its number of coronavirus cases climbed on Monday to the highest in Southeast Asia.
www.reuters.com
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Croatoan
They/Them A-10 Warthog
I frequent another forum which has a dedicated COVID-19 section. This forum has lots of professionals from various diciplines, including doctors. One doctor started a thread that got stickied in which he is basically doing questions and answers (he does the same stuff on facebook). This is non-sensationalized data and details from a frontline doctor in the United States. I will post his updates as he adds them.
Here was his first post last week.
Here is the first facebook post.
Here is his most recent update.
Here is the forum thread where he answers A LOT of questions from people. There are other doctors and scientists in that thread as well helping to answer questions people have.
texags.com
I warn those here that the people that use this forum are generally older than those on GAF and it is moderated heavily. Most of them think this whole thing is bullshit.
edit: I will try and post some of the relevant questions if people want me to. I also fixed the thread link.
Here was his first post last week.
Here is the first facebook post.
Here is his most recent update.
Here is the forum thread where he answers A LOT of questions from people. There are other doctors and scientists in that thread as well helping to answer questions people have.
Covid-19 Update Aggie Physician | TexAgs
Covid-19 Update Aggie Physician discussion on the TexAgs Coronavirus/COVID-19 News & Information forum.
I warn those here that the people that use this forum are generally older than those on GAF and it is moderated heavily. Most of them think this whole thing is bullshit.
edit: I will try and post some of the relevant questions if people want me to. I also fixed the thread link.
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Smiles and Cries
Member
Testing is very important and most places took a long time to start testing, some like Japan avoid testing. In the US the fuss is more or less they only try to use a few selected labs and companies to create the kits, even after they are created, to test they need the protective gear which they did not have enough of. This is the US, it all adds up to slow testing down causing them to only test the most sick.
Smiles and Cries
Member
World Health Organization ships about 1.5 million tests to 120 countries
www.cnn.com
Rhode Island bans gatherings of more than 25 people
www.cnn.com
World Health Organization ships about 1.5 million tests to 120 countries
The World Health Organization has shipped almost 1.5 million novel coronavirus tests to 120 countries, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a news briefing on Monday.
Rhode Island bans gatherings of more than 25 people
Rhode Island bans gatherings of more than 25 people
All public gatherings will be restricted to 25 or less people in Rhode Island, Gov. Gina Raimondo announced Monday. The ban applied to municipal buildings, such as the Department of Motor Vehicles.
rofif
Banned
Better build a wall to isolate the sick
Captain Zyrain
Member
- Status