• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Where do you expect the Switch lifetime sales to end up?

Switch lifetime sales

  • less than 80 million

    Votes: 10 5.1%

  • 80 to 90 million

    Votes: 27 13.6%

  • 90 to 100 million

    Votes: 36 18.2%

  • 100 to 110 million

    Votes: 46 23.2%

  • 110 to 120 million

    Votes: 37 18.7%

  • 120 to 130 million

    Votes: 17 8.6%

  • 130 to 140 million

    Votes: 7 3.5%

  • 140 to 150 million

    Votes: 4 2.0%

  • more than 150 million

    Votes: 14 7.1%
  • Total voters
    198
  • Poll closed .
P

PresetError

Neophyte
The Nintendo Switch is a 2017 console. Switch Lite launched a year ago without the dock functionality (purely portable console). As of august 2020 Nintendo has sold 61.44 million Switch units. As of june 2020 8.84 million of those sales are Switch Lites.

I don't think it's fair to add up the numbers of a hybrid console with a purely portable console but let's play along. At current pace Switch would reach 100 million units sold by 2022. In 2022 next gen consoles would be 2 years old and the Switch will be a 6 years old system.

There is NO WAY Nintendo doesn't launch a new console or another Switch revision to upgrade a system that was already behind current gen consoles in terms of power. Not only for third party (although Nintendo fans like to pretend Nintendo doesn't care about third party they clearly do) but because the distance between Nintendo first party games and the rest of games would get ugly.

If that Switch revision doesn't arrive in the next 2 years I don't think the Switch surpasses 100 million units sold. If that Switch revision arrives you'd have to add up the numbers of 3 very different consoles under the umbrella of the Switch brand to surpass 100 million units sold, which is straight cheating.
 
vaibhavpisal

vaibhavpisal

Member
It will overtake PS4 likely. But Nintendo follows 5 yrs console cycle so not a given.

Especially if a switch 2 comes about with backwards compatibility.
 
MagnesG

MagnesG

Banned
PresetError said:
The Nintendo Switch is a 2017 console. Switch Lite launched a year ago without the dock functionality (purely portable console). As of august 2020 Nintendo has sold 61.44 million Switch units. As of june 2020 8.84 million of those sales are Switch Lites.

I don't think it's fair to add up the numbers of a hybrid console with a purely portable console but let's play along. At current pace Switch would reach 100 million units sold by 2022. In 2022 next gen consoles would be 2 years old and the Switch will be a 6 years old system.

There is NO WAY Nintendo doesn't launch a new console or another Switch revision to upgrade a system that was already behind current gen consoles in terms of power. Not only for third party (although Nintendo fans like to pretend Nintendo doesn't care about third party they clearly do) but because the distance between Nintendo first party games and the rest of games would get ugly.

If that Switch revision doesn't arrive in the next 2 years I don't think the Switch surpasses 100 million units sold. If that Switch revision arrives you'd have to add up the numbers of 3 very different consoles under the umbrella of the Switch brand to surpass 100 million units sold, which is straight cheating.
Click to expand...
There's a precedent case (New3DS) where a new revision with added specs was released, although not much of it was used actually.
Nintendo has also released a statement informing their investors about their intention to lengthen their Switch generation.

Cheating though? What's the point actually? It's not fair because it's a very different console when it's pretty much all the same architecture inside? How is it any different from PS4 phat, PS4 Slim and Pro? Call it what you want though at the end of the day.
 
LordOfChaos

LordOfChaos

Member
110-120m, momentum still is very strong and if it follows the DS model of having a more powerful refresh it could well keep going.
 
Rattlehead121

Rattlehead121

Member
100 mill. I would have said more, but I think this year, AND the new consoles are going to start slowing down the Switch. A shame, Nin had so much ample time to throw the hardcore crowd some goodwill throughout Corona. I do believe they lost some of those people because of their shit marketing and company practices this year.
 
B

Bodomism

Banned
Birdo said:
About 90-100.

Despite it's current popularity, I don't think it will have long legs. BOTW 2 will be it's swan song, like TP was to the Gamecube and BOTW was to the Wii-U.
Click to expand...
MK8D, ACNH, BOTW, Smash, SMO, Pokemon, and etc won't stop selling.

BOTW2 isn't the only big seller left for Nintendo.

Next 3D-2D Mario
Next gen 9 and Remake of Pokemon
Next Metroid
Next SMP game
Next FE, Xeno, SMT, Mario Port, and etc
New RFA stock
Next Tomodachi game
New price cut for Base Switch
New Revision and Upgrade
Aggrasive promotion and bundled

Nintendo has a lot of cards to play to maintain the momentum of Switch.
 
Varteras

Varteras

Gold Member
I voted 90 to 100 million. I think it will probably surpass 100 million but I'm being conservative after what happened to the Wii and seeing as how the upcoming software lineup coming out of Nintendo is rather barren. Still waiting on Bayonetta 3 and Metroid Prime 4. Both of which we've seen virtually nothing on since their announcements a few years ago. Breath of the Wild 2 is coming so that will certainly help but I'm a little wary of what Nintendo is up to. Getting the feeling that they're already prepping for a new console and I'm going to guess part of the reason is thanks to pressure from third parties who want stronger specs to work with for their next gen games.
 
Lionel Richie

Lionel Richie

Member
Went the conservative way and voted 100 to 110 million. It will depend on how long Nintendo feels they can ride this tech, if they launch stuff like another Pokemon gen or Mario Kart 9 then yeah the Switch will beat the living shit out of the PS4. Not sure if that's in the plans. As it stands, just over 100 million is the safe bet.
 
ShinNL

ShinNL

Member
I'm personally hoping Nintendo would just go the iPhone route and just start making the Switch with generations, that has occasional software not backwards compatible (so a dynamic leap). I think that's the best way forward, but also means counting hardware sales is going to blur more and more. Basically more hardware revisions than actual generations and let the software be the one that has compatibility ranges.
 
Astral Dog

Astral Dog

Member
Honestly im not sure, Nintendo could come up with a Switch 2 bomb any moment because they certainly aren't talking about the current Switch games, besides 7 year old ports and third party announced games
 
iconmaster

iconmaster

Banned
Vawn said:
They'll break 100 million. A lot of that will be due to multiple models and double-dippers.
Click to expand...

Important to keep this in mind. Nintendo has said they want households to own more than one Switch and the Lite is ideally suited for that mission. The Switch is tracking very well with the Nintendo DS and that may continue to be its trajectory.

I don't think Switch will achieve 150 mil like the DS, but I think it'll break 100 no sweat.
 
Last edited:
Vawn

Vawn

Banned
iconmaster said:
Important to keep this in mind. Nintendo has said they want households to own more than one Switch and the Lite is ideally suited for that mission. The Switch is tracking very well with the Nintendo DS and that may continue to be its trajectory.

I don't think Switch will achieve 150 mil like the DS, but I think it'll break 100 no sweat.
Click to expand...

My house has 5 so far, and we are likely to get another once I trust my youngest enough not to break it within a week.
 
danielJackson

danielJackson

Banned
It should be compared to wii+3ds total, because it is home+portable hybrid and pure portable(lite).

So it is not selling that well if counting both.

Weird to see it selling even this good that when it never even got sold out in my country, not even on launch.

And even wiiu were sold out I think, while ps4 is still sometimes around holidays, but switch is not.
 
Last edited:
N

noshten

Member
60% of people think the Switch will sell a maximum of 110M units...

Let me be contrarian and go with the scenario that they sell over 25M this year. They sold just short of 11M in Q4 last year with the Lite launch. A lot of the growth we are seeing this year is due to Lite allowing them to diversify their supply chain, as it's likely assembled in Vietnam since it doesn't require the same level of skill as the OG Switch with all of its different components.
With three weeks left to go unofficial numbers for Japan from Famitsu for Q3 are 1.022.712. an 87% increase compared to last year's total at the same time which was 546.896. In North America, NPD saw sales increase by 100% during August YoY, after only a slight increase in July. With Super Mario Collection launching, at the end of September, I think we will see a slight increase compared to Q2 but it could be large increase depending on the final shipment Nintendo provides for the Quarter(we should get an idea from Famitsu what to expect, but during Animal Crossing's launch we saw figures larger than Lite's launch). Conservatively I'd put Q3 at >6M for this exercise.
The Lite is what will allow them to actually see growth YoY this year, coupled with scaling up production of Ring Fit Adventure and launching it officially in China; Animal Crossing experiencing its first holiday; much stronger Japanese 3rd Party support in the fall and finally, it's a vast array of evergreen titles. Lite is cheaper to manufacture and would allow them to drop the price or provide a bundle with one of their evergreen titles for BlackFriday/Christmas. Scaling up production has also made the OG Switch a bit cheaper to manufacture compared to the launch estimates of around $250 prior to shipping/retailer cut. So this year should fall just short of DS's best years during the holiday quarter. Usually, Nintendo makes 50% of its hardware sales in the holidays but considering that they only recently raised production to 30M I find it hard to believe they could actually ship 15M units for the holidays. So I would go with 13M during Q4.

Q1 - 3.29M, Q2 - 5.67M, Q3 - >6M, Q4 - >13M = >27M

With this, we've wrapped up 2020 at >74.6M units sold, we have Q1 2021 which already has one big game dated, I don't see how they don't' see growth compared to Q1 2020, demand would still be high. Q2 2020 will probably be the time they decide to launch Switch Pro(if it's a thing) with Breath of the Wild 2, only a slight increase compared to 2020 expected here. Q3 stays flat and Q4 sees a slight increase to sales due to the first permanent price cut.

Q1 - >4M, Q2 - >6M, Q3 - >6M, Q4 - >14M = >30M

So at the end of 2021, they are sitting pretty at 104.6M units sold with a few years left before a successor is launched.

I honestly don't expect Switch 2 to launch before 2023, with early 2024 being the more likely scenario if we do really get a Switch Pro next year.
Now if Nintendo just chooses to continuously improve the Switch with older variants being slowly fazed out, and titles from 2023 for example not being compatible with OG Switch that could completely change all these scenarios. It wouldn't be unprecedented as both the DS and GameBoy had a pretty long shelf life.
Another option is for the Pro to actually be a peripheral computing device in addition to the Switch. In other words, a TV only console that would act as a computing device for owners of a Lite/OG Switch, Nintendo does have such a patent and I'm not even sure how something like this would be counted.


In any case, I think any prediction below 110M is pretty conservative knowing what we know so far but people have been expecting the Switch to fall off a cliff for three years now, so it doesn't surprise me.
 
Bonfires Down

Bonfires Down

Member
My prediction is that 80+% of gaffers are underestimating Nintendo... again. I considered putting the low end cut off at 90 million as I thought no sane person could predict lower than that.
 
IDKFA

IDKFA

I am Become Bilbo Baggins
About 375 million. Potentially could hit the magic 500 million mark, but that's probably pushing it.
 
alabtrosMyster

alabtrosMyster

Banned
I expect the Switch to fall off a cliff soon, just like the Wii became irrelevant as of a sudden (it sold very fast for a while).

I expect the PS4 to surpass the GB/GBC sales in 2021-2. maybe it will reach 130millions units, but I doubt it will sell much more than this (sales are already down).
 
MagnesG

MagnesG

Banned
alabtrosMyster said:
I expect the Switch to fall off a cliff soon, just like the Wii became irrelevant as of a sudden (it sold very fast for a while).

I expect the PS4 to surpass the GB/GBC sales in 2021-2. maybe it will reach 130millions units, but I doubt it will sell much more than this (sales are already down).
Click to expand...
When? Next year? 2021? When is this "soon" coming?
 
Last edited:
BlackTron

BlackTron

Member
alabtrosMyster said:
I expect the Switch to fall off a cliff soon, just like the Wii became irrelevant as of a sudden (it sold very fast for a while).

I expect the PS4 to surpass the GB/GBC sales in 2021-2. maybe it will reach 130millions units, but I doubt it will sell much more than this (sales are already down).
Click to expand...

Disagree, I think Wii and Switch are very different beasts. Wii made so many sales on the basis of its motion control gimmick and low price. It made for a lot of one-and-done hardware sales with a bad attach rate. Many of those sales were just getting the hype for motion control Wii Sports out of their system, and that was it.

Switch on the other hand, sells a ton of hardware and accessories despite higher prices, because people buy it for the sheer practicality of its "gimmick" and explosive games library, with many titles breaking 10m units, and tons of third party games and ports.

In short, Wii was a fad, but people are buying Switch just to play normal games they want on a regular-ass controller. I think its extremely strong compared to Wii which will show in the long tail in comparison.
 
alabtrosMyster

alabtrosMyster

Banned
BlackTron said:
In short, Wii was a fad, but people are buying Switch just to play normal games they want on a regular-ass controller. I think its extremely strong compared to Wii which will show in the long tail in comparison.
Click to expand...
That's the part I don't get... Why not get a PS4 and be done with it? (Obviously the exclusives explain that)
 
M

m051293

Member
Quarterly Breakdown by Fiscal Year (NDS / Wii / PS4 / NSW)

yiza67Q.png


NDS peaked in FY4. Wii in FY2. PS4 in FY3.

NSW on pace to peak in Y4 (probably in just three quarters, it only needs 9M). IMO it has a shot at a higher peak again in 2021, but that remains to be seen.

100M will come and go at this point, its trajectory is clearly aiming way higher now. This current year should be ~30M and next year should be about the same (+/- 5%). I think its sitting at 115-120M by the end of FY5 (March 2022), so it should go well past that range as well.

*Sony and Nintendo Fiscal Year's run from Apr - Mar. So quarters fit in that framework.
*Year 0 is launch Fiscal Year (Nov-Mar for NDS/Wii/PS4, Mar for NSW)
 
AJUMP23

AJUMP23

Member
I think it will break 100 million. another 10 million this year during the holidays and healthy sales until its end of life.
 
Ogbert

Ogbert

Member
If we're talking 'Switch family' of consoles, then it will be the greatest seller of all time. Absolutely no doubt in my mind.

150 million plus. Principally because so many current owners will rebuy a Pro version.
 
ReBurn

ReBurn

Gold Member
I expect the high score counter to roll back to zero at some point and the switch will end with 112 units sold on the dial.
 
Woopah

Woopah

Member
alabtrosMyster said:
I expect the Switch to fall off a cliff soon, just like the Wii became irrelevant as of a sudden (it sold very fast for a while).

I expect the PS4 to surpass the GB/GBC sales in 2021-2. maybe it will reach 130millions units, but I doubt it will sell much more than this (sales are already down).
Click to expand...
Big difference between the Wii and the Switch is the sales curve. Four years into the Wii all of Nintendo's teams had to move on to supporting the launch of both the Wii U and 3DS, so Wii software dried up.

Four years into the Switch and Nintendo's teams are all still focused on that platform.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom