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Where do you expect the Switch lifetime sales to end up?

Switch lifetime sales

  • less than 80 million

    Votes: 10 5.1%

  • 80 to 90 million

    Votes: 27 13.6%

  • 90 to 100 million

    Votes: 36 18.2%

  • 100 to 110 million

    Votes: 46 23.2%

  • 110 to 120 million

    Votes: 37 18.7%

  • 120 to 130 million

    Votes: 17 8.6%

  • 130 to 140 million

    Votes: 7 3.5%

  • 140 to 150 million

    Votes: 4 2.0%

  • more than 150 million

    Votes: 14 7.1%
  • Total voters
    198
  • Poll closed .
Bonfires Down

Bonfires Down

Member
The Switch has come a long way since the messy ass price reveal thread. Where do you think it will end up when all is said and done?

Switch sales
FY' 17 - 2.74 M
FY' 18 - 15.05 M
FY' 19 - 16.95 M
FY' 20 - 21.03 M
Total Switch sales up to March 31st 2020 - 55.77 M

Best selling consoles:
PS2 - 155 M
DS - 154 M
GB+GBC - 119 M
PS4 - 110 M
PS1 - 103 M
Wii - 102 M

Compared to PS2:
FY1 - 1.41
FY2 - 9.20
FY3 - 18.07
FY4 - 22.52
FY5 - 20.10
FY6 - 16.17
FY7 - 16.22
FY8 - 14.20
FY9 - 13.70
FY10 - 7.90
FY11 - 7.30
FY12 - 6.40

 
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Saber

Saber

Gold Member
I doubt it will sell that much, not because it's a bad console at all. It's just that not all places in the world have Switch to sell.
 
namekuseijin

namekuseijin

Banned
I'm guessing with PS5 release and probably price cut on PS4, switch sales may start their slow descent into more irrelevancy

but perhaps not, I think the audiences are different. Switch folks are clearly ok with playing retro indies on the go and some messy downgrades. Mobility is what matters so it may well go steady until Nintendo comes up with their next gimmicky console - let's see, they've already done motion controls, then tablet thing, now have this portable doubling as console... perhaps VR after that Labo experiment? Yeah, can't wait to watch nbois raving for it and fighting off anyone calling it a gimmick
 
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Same ol G

Same ol G

Member
it'll probably reach 100 mil.
There are still some games left to release, the second BOTW, Bayonetta 3. Prime 4 and NMH3 are my most anticipated games and there are lors of games we don't know about.
I don't see the sales stopping anytime soon.
 
teezzy

teezzy

Banned
FUCK YEAH MORE THAN 150 MILLION

4eef818e08c77.png
 
Ten_Fold

Ten_Fold

Member
With a switch pro hopefully with graphics that’s on par with ps4 pro or Xbox one X, will add 5 extra years to its life imo. I could see it selling 100+M.
 
Investor9872

Investor9872

Member
I vote less than 80 million. I would love to have a Switch Pro, but that doesn't seem to be happening, and it's probably better for Nintendo to release a Switch 2 with BC next instead, hopefully in the next 2-3 years. In order for the Switch to sell over 80 million, which of course is possible, there needs to be a sustainable pipeline releases of 1st party Nintendo games. Zelda BOTW 2 and Mario Odyssey 2 are the only ones I can see coming at the moment since Nintendo's Directs have gone the way of the Dodo bird. There's nothing but Wii U and 3DS ports coming in the near future (which is not necessarily a bad thing if they do it right), but they are not going to be moving tens of millions of more Nintendo Switch systems.
 
Bonfires Down

Bonfires Down

Member
Coolio McAwesome said:
They're nearly at 60 million and they haven't had a permanent price drop. That's unprecedented. This thing will eventually hit $149 and take off like a rocket. 100 million+ is guaranteed. 150 million is a lot more realistic than 80 million.
Click to expand...
I'm really scratching my head at those less than 80M votes. I suppose if one believes that Nintendo will release a successor in a year or two or that the next gen consoles will kill the Switch momentum... neither of those seem likely at all though.
 
N

NahaNago

Member
I didn't even think about a price drop. I was expecting 90 to 100 million because it was already nearly at 60 million.
 
JimiNutz

JimiNutz

Banned
Definitely over 100 million, maybe 110-120 million.
They still have a few really big games to come and I think Nintendo will support the Switch family of consoles for another four years.

They being said I've been a little disappointed with Nintendo's recent output, especially now that they only have to support on platform. Hopefully their momentum isn't slowing down too much.
 
P

PresetError

Neophyte
The Switch needs anoher pandemic and another Animal Crossing New Horizons to keep 2020 pace. Maybe a new main line Mario or a decent new Pokemon game could achieve another big push. Zelda games don't sell like that. Metroid neither.

IMO the Switch catalogue will suffer with the release of next gen consoles. It will be progressively reduced to first party and indies. I don't think Nintendo can afford to keep the Switch as a flagship console for too long after that. On the other hand, the Switch Lite could have long legs as a merely portable console.
 
B

Bodomism

Banned
PresetError said:
The Switch needs anoher pandemic and another Animal Crossing New Horizons to keep 2020 pace. Maybe a new main line Mario or a decent new Pokemon game could achieve another big push. Zelda games don't sell like that. Metroid neither.

IMO the Switch catalogue will suffer with the release of next gen consoles. It will be progressively reduced to first party and indies. I don't think Nintendo can afford to keep the Switch as a flagship console for too long after that. On the other hand, the Switch Lite could have long legs as a merely portable console.
Click to expand...
Pokemon Remake - 15M seller
Pokemon Gen 9 - 20M seller
BOTW2(BOTW sold over 19M) - 20M seller
Next 3D Mario - 15M seller
Next 2D Mario - 15M seller
MK9 - 30M seller
Splatoon 3 - 10M seller
Official price drop for base and lite model
New pro model

100M is guaranteed at this point.
 
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B

Bodomism

Banned
Investor9872 said:
I vote less than 80 million. I would love to have a Switch Pro, but that doesn't seem to be happening, and it's probably better for Nintendo to release a Switch 2 with BC next instead, hopefully in the next 2-3 years. In order for the Switch to sell over 80 million, which of course is possible, there needs to be a sustainable pipeline releases of 1st party Nintendo games. Zelda BOTW 2 and Mario Odyssey 2 are the only ones I can see coming at the moment since Nintendo's Directs have gone the way of the Dodo bird. There's nothing but Wii U and 3DS ports coming in the near future (which is not necessarily a bad thing if they do it right), but they are not going to be moving tens of millions of more Nintendo Switch systems.
Click to expand...
You need to take a look at sales thread sometimes 😂, Switch is currently in ultra instinct mode and likely to surpass 3DS number(75M) on the next FY without any problem. Nintendo are going to post the highest hardware ever sold in this generation for Q1.
 
P

PresetError

Neophyte
Bodomism said:
Pokemon Remake - 15M seller
Pokemon Gen 9 - 20M seller
BOTW2(BOTW sold over 19M) - 20M seller
Next 3D Mario - 15M seller
Next 2D Mario - 15M seller
MK9 - 30M seller
Splatoon 3 - 10M seller
Official price drop for base and lite model
New pro model

100M is guaranteed at this point.
Click to expand...

With data from April 2020 (I don't know where you get yours).

Animal Crossing New Horizons - 14 million copies sold in 2 months
Zelda Breath of the Wild - 18 million copies sold in 3 years
 
B

Bodomism

Banned
UnNamed said:
I predict things will end Wii: huge success in the first years, then an abrupt stop in sales.
Click to expand...
Nah, Switch sales trajectory is different than Wii thanks to the core audience vs soccer mom audience.

Zelda Skyward Sword sold 4M on the Wii
Zelda BOTW sold 17.4M on the Switch and likely to surpass 20M mark in this FY alone.

Nintendo Switch is currently selling like hotcake without even one official price drop on its 4th year and didn't have to bundle together with top seller software like Wii did with Wii sports outside of Japan.
 
B

Bodomism

Banned
PresetError said:
With data from April 2020 (I don't know where you get yours).

Animal Crossing New Horizons - 14 million copies sold in 2 months
Zelda Breath of the Wild - 18 million copies sold in 3 years
Click to expand...
Zelda BOTW Switch - 17.41 M
Zelda BOTW WiiU - 1.6M
Animal Crossing NH - 13.41M in 6 weeks for US/EU/JP
 
S

SpongebobSquaredance

Unconfirmed Member
Bodomism said:
Nah, Switch sales trajectory is different than Wii thanks to the core audience vs soccer mom audience.

Zelda Skyward Sword sold 4M on the Wii
Zelda BOTW sold 17.4M on the Switch and likely to surpass 20M mark in this FY alone.
Click to expand...
to be fair though, Skyward Sword would have sold better if it was released at launch or close to it. It could have been a 10 million seller. Releasing at the very end of the console's life cycle when all the fuzz was gone already definitely hurt its sales. I know Twilight Princess was released on launch and it sold pretty well (about 8 million I think, about 10 including gamecube), but why didn't Nintendo do the same thing with the Wii U launch? It was such a missed opportunity to not release a HD version of Skyward Sword at launch.
 
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Faenrir

Faenrir

Member
I'm guessing between 100 and 110M...but that's only if the next zelda game is released for it.
PS2 had a much longer lifespan than other consoles and it probably won't happen again with any console.
 
CuNi

CuNi

Member
I'm waiting for Metroid Prime 4 to be released and then I'm going to get that baby as well. 110 - 120m I guess. Depends on how long they'll keep selling it after a eventual successor hits the market. I could see this get close to PS2 or overtake it if they keep production running for 12+ years as well.
 
jigglet

jigglet

Banned
120 million. I think the potential is high because they've used an nVidia chip, so it's going to be very nicely scalable and they'll also have access to DLSS tech in the future. This means backwards compatibility should be good, and they should be able to just keep improving the hardware without burning the house to the ground every generation. I don't see why Switch as a platform couldn't go on for a solid decade with another 2-3 hardware revisions.

All 3 companies have done the smart thing and avoided going too custom with their consoles. I'm sick of seeing the slate wiped clean every generation.
 
Faenrir

Faenrir

Member
jigglet said:
120 million. I think the potential is high because they've used an nVidia chip, so it's going to be very nicely scalable and they'll also have access to DLSS tech in the future. This means backwards compatibility should be good, and they should be able to just keep improving the hardware without burning the house to the ground every generation. I don't see why Switch as a platform couldn't go on for a solid decade with another 2-3 hardware revisions.
Click to expand...
What does the gpu brand has to do with scalability?
 
Yoboman

Yoboman

Member
Depends on Nintendo

When is their next console due? Nintendo have often had sharp drop offs after their new system comes out, and their output of new software drops off in the last few years
 
Birdo

Birdo

Banned
About 90-100.

Despite it's current popularity, I don't think it will have long legs. BOTW 2 will be it's swan song, like TP was to the Gamecube and BOTW was to the Wii-U.
 
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KingT731

KingT731

Member
Dr.Morris79 said:
That sounds lovely an all but it sounds like a battery nightmare..
Click to expand...
Absolutely would murder batteries hell the Switch battery life now isn't even that great. Then add in that Nintendo likes to cheap out on hardware...that would be a hard pass.
 
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