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[Mr Hyde]

I think it will surpass 150 million when all I said and done. It will be the most successful console if all time. This thing is absolute nuclear on the charts.

 

[noshten]

Conservatively I'd put Q3 at >6M for this exercise.
The Lite is what will allow them to actually see growth YoY this year, coupled with scaling up production of Ring Fit Adventure and launching it officially in China; Animal Crossing experiencing its first holiday; much stronger Japanese 3rd Party support in the fall and finally, it's a vast array of evergreen titles. Lite is cheaper to manufacture and would allow them to drop the price or provide a bundle with one of their evergreen titles for BlackFriday/Christmas. Scaling up production has also made the OG Switch a bit cheaper to manufacture compared to the launch estimates of around $250 prior to shipping/retailer cut. So this year should fall just short of DS's best years during the holiday quarter. Usually, Nintendo makes 50% of its hardware sales in the holidays but considering that they only recently raised production to 30M I find it hard to believe they could actually ship 15M units for the holidays. So I would go with 13M during Q4.

Q1 - 3.29M, Q2 - 5.67M, Q3 - >6M, Q4 - >13M = >27M

So as expected 6M was a conservative estimation for the Quarter.

Even if we maintain a conservative outlook of 13M units for the holidays, that would be very close to 29M units for the calendar year

Q1 - 3.29M, Q2 - 5.67M, Q3 - 6.85M, Q4 ->13M = >28.81M / 81.3M


Next year Q1 and Q2 will probably be up YoY, due to COVID this year they couldn't supply enough to meet demand even for the New Horizon launch. There are also additional markets where they will continue to see the growth that Nintendo entered this year, for example recently it was noted that Switch is catching up very quickly to the PS4 in China, they are already the dominant dedicated platform in Taiwan and South Korea, re-entered Brazil a few months ago etc. The new consoles will not impact them while PS5 will have subpar performance and support in Japan. The vast majority of Japanese 3rd Parties will be reluctant to support the new consoles as it means taking pretty substantial gambles - Square Enix for example really underperformed this quarter because of Marvel's Avengers, unless Sony or Microsoft are footing the bill - I don't see them rushing to support next-gen. Bandai had a bunch of PS4 exclusives this year and all underperformed, while Sega hasn't really built an audience on the platform in any meaningful way and despite this Mario & Sonic at the Olympics is probably their biggest game in over a decade.

Overall this holiday Quarter and next year will be full of mid-sized and huge third party games, which will be especially impactful in Japan, this year the Top Selling 3rd Party games on the Switch in Japan will be Momotaro(Konami), Age of Calamity(Koei Tecmo), eBaseball(Konami), Minecraft(Microsoft).
Starting November we are finally starting to see the type of support we should expect for the platform that has close to 90% of the Dedicated Video game market in Japan. A lot of mid-sized efforts, starting with SMT III, which launched this week with >50K sales on the Switch. Also a fair few exclusives for the Platform,

2020 & 2021 Switch line-up
- Shin Megami Tensei III(Atlus) - multiplat
- Pikmin 3 Deluxe (Nintendo) - exclusive
- Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin(Marvelous) - multiplat
- Age of Calamity(Koei) - exclusive
- Momotaro(Konami) - exclusive
- Fitness Boxing 2(Imagineer) - exclusive
- Atelier 2(Koei) - multiplat
- Derby Stallion(Game Addict) - exclusive
- Kingdom Hearts: Melody of Memory(Square) - multiplat
- Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack(Bandai) - exclusive
- Puyo Puyo 2(Sega) - multiplat
- Immortals Fenyx Rising(Ubisoft) - multiplat
- BOND(Koei) - exclusive
- Disgaea 6(Nippon) - multiplat
- Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury(Nintendo) - exclusive
- Bravely Default 2(Square) - exclusive
- Story of Seasons Olive Town(Marvelous) - exclusive
- Monster Hunter Rise(Capcom) - exclusive
- Balan World(Square) - multiplat
- Rune Factory 5(Marvelous) - exclusive
- SMT V(Atlus) - exclusive
- No More Heroes 3(Marvelous) - exclusive
- Monster Hunter Stories 2(Capcom) - exclusive

Marvelous - 4
Koei Tecmo - 3
Square - 3
Atlus - 2
Capcom - 2

Nintendo entering an unprecedented dominant position in Japan, where there is no successful Playstation console or portable, so some third parties might not even bother porting their AA to the Sony ecosystems. PS5 will see a further decline from the PS4 and a lot of PSP/PS Vita focused studios have already transitioned to the Switch.
The situation on the Japanese market is entering a pretty substantial shift especially for Capcom, Koei, Marvelous, Konami. Next year there will be a multi-million-selling game in Monster Hunter Rise, which will catapult Capcom to the Top spot as far as 3rd Parties on the Switch. Momotaro, and Age of Calamity will be the biggest games for their Publishers in Japan for over a decade. Marvelous has made a full shift towards the Switch and Olive Town and Rune Factory 5 are likely to be the biggest games in those franchises. Atlus will get a big push by Nintendo for SMT V. Bravely Default 2 will see growth compared to its predecessor and should have no problems surpassing 2M sales WW.
This will impact the rest of the Asian markets which are already trending pretty heavily towards Nintendo, and we still don't know what will launch as far as 1st Party and 2nd Party titles from Nintendo and Pokemon Company. Pokemon Snap for example could be a pretty big hit, Bayonetta 3 should be pretty close to being ready to launch. Breath of the Wild 2 would probably have the highest launch in the franchise's history.

So to me, it seems that Switch will be close to flat in Japan next year, will have its peak year in Asia, will probably see expansion in some developing markets, while in the West the holiday season might give us an idea of what to expect in 2021.
Personally, I think 2021 will be the peak calendar year for the Switch, this year there was huge demand that could not be met, New Horizon & Ring Fit Adventure will continue to attract new audiences over the holiday and into 2021, while Monster Hunter Rise, steady releases of 3rd Party games, and most of all hardware supply will ensure that in Q1 and Q2 are up YoY. Q3 will be either flat or down but I don't see how there isn't a huge holiday game on the Switch next year. Whether it's Breath of the Wild 2 or something else remains to be seen. But this year Nintendo are in an unprecedented situation pushing a Koei Tecmo game for the holidays, so Koei is in a very fortunate position and Breath of the Wild 2 will likely help Age of Calamity remain relevant into 2021.


Q1 - >6M, Q2 - >6M, Q3 - >6M , Q4 ->15M = >33M / >114.3M

 

[Luminoth-4545]

This is amusing, at the time this thread was posted the Switch was 3 years old and had sold 55.77m and some people thought 80 million was all it could sell lifetime WTF? In reality It only took another 9 months to reach 80m, I know we have the benefit of hindsight but that is an extremely negative prediction. Now it is at 89.04m with 150m a possibility.

FY'17 - 2.74m
FY'18 - 15.05m
FY'19 - 16.95m
FY'20 - 21.03m
FY'21 - 28.82m
FY'22 - 4.45m Q1, 25.50m forecast
FY'23 - 20m?
FY'24 - 15m?
FY'25 - 10m?
FY'26 - 5m?
LTD - 160m?

 

[nightmare-slain]

Switch only needs to shift another 30m units or so before it over takes PS4 and Gameboy. the PS4 is old news now but Switch has still got some life left in it. a new model out next month and the lite could get a revision. still got a couple Pokemon games to come (diamond/pearl remakes + arceus) and of course BOTW2. those are the big hitters. now remember that the Switch hasn't had a price drop! in fact the new OLED model is getting a price increase lol. if Nintendo were to give the console a price drop (either the standard or lite) then they would probably have a chance of reaching the DS or PS2 who are at 150m plus.

 

[Marty-McFly]

Another thread where people on the first page are downplaying Switch? It will be past 100 million this December.

Where is the poll option for best selling platform ever?

 

[Marty-McFly]

This is amusing, at the time this thread was posted the Switch was 3 years old and had sold 55.77m and some people thought 80 million was all it could sell lifetime WTF? In reality It only took another 9 months to reach 80m, I know we have the benefit of hindsight but that is an extremely negative prediction. Now it is at 89.04m with 150m a possibility.

FY'17 - 2.74m
FY'18 - 15.05m
FY'19 - 16.95m
FY'20 - 21.03m
FY'21 - 28.82m
FY'22 - 4.45m Q1, 25.50m forecast
FY'23 - 20m?
FY'24 - 15m?
FY'25 - 10m?
FY'26 - 5m?
LTD - 160m?

This thread is only about a year old and it was at 55.77m?

It's now close to 100 million.

It's mind boggling how fast it's selling.

 

[Bodomism]

Awesome to see i voted above 150M which is around 60M to achieve that result.

 

[Bodomism]

This thread is only about a year old and it was at 55.77m?

It's now close to 100 million.

It's mind boggling how fast it's selling.

Many will blame Covid for Switch explosive sales lol.

 

[Marty-McFly]

Many will blame Covid for Switch explosive sales lol.

Don't get me wrong, I think there's been a bit of a Covid surge, but the reality is Switch sold 21 million in 2019 which is better than PS4's best year on the market and that was before Covid was even a thing. Lest we not forget, Covid is probably also helping Sony and MS with their fastest company launches ever as well. So it works both ways.

 

[Gameplaylover]

It will beat the PS4 for sure, but i don't think it can beat the PS2.

 

[Zannegan]

I thought 140 was a bit of a stretch when I picked it, now it looks like a cert. They haven't even dropped the price yet.

I do wonder what their followup will be and if it will follow their rollercoaster up-down pattern by being a failure. Could a relatively unimaginative hybrid followup be enough to find the same success, or is that elusive mainstream audience always looking for something new from Nintendo?

 

[Bodomism]

Don't get me wrong, I think there's been a bit of a Covid surge, but the reality is Switch sold 21 million in 2019 which is better than PS4's best year on the market and that was before Covid was even a thing. Lest we not forget, Covid is probably also helping Sony and MS with their fastest company launches ever as well. So it works both ways.

Covid certainly helped especially during the holidays when Switch barely had any AAA software to push the hardware and gave Nintendo a breathing room to schedule their AAA titles in 2021.

Without covid i think Switch would've been sold around 23-24M for FY2020.

 

[Ogbert]

It’s going to be the best selling console ever.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

This thread is only about a year old and it was at 55.77m?

It's now close to 100 million.

It's mind boggling how fast it's selling.

Selling 28.82m in a fiscal year is absolutely monstrous, that is better than the Wii's peak year and more than double the peak year of the 3DS. To compare here are the peak year sales for other Nintendo & Sony consoles that have shipment Data (MIcrosoft don't provide shipment data). This shows just how great NSW performed in FY 2021, although not the record it is arguably more impressive than the peak of DS because it is sold at double the price.

Nintendo DS - 31.18m - FY 2008
Nintendo Switch - 28.82m - FY 2021
Nintendo Wii - 25.95m - FY 2008
Playstation 2 - 22.52m - FY 2003
Playstation - 21.60m - FY 1999
Playstation 4 - 20.00m - FY 2017
GBC - 18.86m - FY 2000
GBA - 17.60m - FY 2004
Playstation 3 - 14.30m - FY 2010
Playstation Portable - 14.06m - FY 2006
Nintendo 3DS - 13.95m - FY 2013
Super NES - 13.03 m - FY 1993
NES - 10.97m - FY - 1989
Nintendo 64 - 9.42m - FY 1998
Nintendo Gamecube - 5.76m - FY 2002
Nintendo Wii U - 3.45m - FY 2013

 

[bit_blaster]

probably something close to the Wii's sales

 

[Bonfires Down]

Selling 28.82m in a fiscal year is absolutely monstrous, that is better than the Wii's peak year and more than double the peak year of the 3DS. To compare here are the peak year sales for other Nintendo & Sony consoles that have shipment Data (MIcrosoft don't provide shipment data). This shows just how great NSW performed in FY 2021, although not the record it is arguably more impressive than the peak of DS because it is sold at double the price.

Nintendo DS - 31.18m - FY 2008
Nintendo Switch - 28.82m - FY 2021
Nintendo Wii - 25.95m - FY 2008
Playstation 2 - 22.52m - FY 2003
Playstation - 21.60m - FY 1999
Playstation 4 - 20.00m - FY 2017
GBC - 18.86m - FY 2000
GBA - 17.60m - FY 2004
Playstation 3 - 14.30m - FY 2010
Playstation Portable - 14.06m - FY 2006
Nintendo 3DS - 13.95m - FY 2013
Super NES - 13.03 m - FY 1993
NES - 10.97m - FY - 1989
Nintendo 64 - 9.42m - FY 1998
Nintendo Gamecube - 5.76m - FY 2002
Nintendo Wii U - 3.45m - FY 2013

GBA had it's peak year the same year as NDS release. It really got done dirty by Nintendo, though obviously it was the right decision in hindsight.

 

[MrA]

probably something close to the Wii's sales

the system was just shy of 90 million at the end of last quarter, nintendo is going to ship about 13 million more fy 2022, it would have to dead stop selling to end close to the wii, unless sony has some incredible plans to revive the ps4, the switch is going to blow past that unless it collapse worse than the wii

 

[Luminoth-4545]

GBA had it's peak year the same year as NDS release. It really got done dirty by Nintendo, though obviously it was the right decision in hindsight.

It was to combat the threat of the PSP, Nintendo didn't want to give it a head start. At the time some analysts were predicting that Sony would surpass Nintendo in the handheld space just like they had done for home consoles. The PSP actually outsold the DS in it's first year but then the DS lite arrived and an easy Nintendo victory followed.

 

[Marty-McFly]

probably something close to the Wii's sales

It will pass Wii this December.

 

[Bonfires Down]

The Switch has now sold over 100M (pending official data), which means it has outsold the expectation of 37% of the voters here. When all is said and done that's gonna be more like 90%.

So no, you are no less biased or off the mark than the posters in the original Switch betting thread. You had the advantage of years of sales data and you still got it horribly wrong.

 

[Kacho]

Yeah it’s amazing how well it’s selling. Total beast mode and Switch is gonna have a strong 2022 software wise too.

 

[TGO]

The Switch has now sold over 100M (pending official data), which means it has outsold the expectation of 37% of the voters here. When all is said and done that's gonna be more like 90%.

So no, you are no less biased or off the mark than the posters in the original Switch betting thread. You had the advantage of years of sales data and you still got it horribly wrong.

Nah seriously, Who was you replying to

 

[Trimesh]

The Switch has now sold over 100M (pending official data), which means it has outsold the expectation of 37% of the voters here. When all is said and done that's gonna be more like 90%.

So no, you are no less biased or off the mark than the posters in the original Switch betting thread. You had the advantage of years of sales data and you still got it horribly wrong.

It's important to remember that Gaf is a site that's absolutely stuffed full of graphics whores - to them, the idea that a platform that attaches such little importance to graphics capability could be this successful is a serious threat to their world view - which seems basically to be that graphics aren't just the most important thing, they are the only important thing.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Now i'm thinking that 150 million hardware is a lock and at least 1.3 billion Software. I think it's clear now that a successor will not be released untill 2024 at the earliest.

 

[Marvel14]

Sales will end up, up the asses of all those who say it's just a handheld thereby causing them to develop spastic colons.