Nintendo consoles always had the best first and third party games before PlayStation. It wasn't even close enough to call it a competition.
Anyone voting for Sega is crazy. If history stayed as it was pre-Sony, all the games we play on PlayStation and Xbox, would be Nintendo exclusives.
It's time to step away from the playground little one, recess is over.
I see Xbox as the successor to Sega anyways.
Eh, kinda-sorta? OG Xbox was definitely a lot like a spiritual successor to Dreamcast, and the 360/PS3 gen mirrored a LOT of what the Genesis/SNES era was before it. If you want to be a bit loose tho then there's a lot of thematic ties between the XBO and Saturn in terms of market performance and general fates (hard fall-offs from their prev consoles especially in key Western markets, tons of cancelled 1P titles/exclusives, notably absent sequels to certain key IP created, bigger push to PC, relatively quicker pivot to next-gen talk ahead of competitors (Sony), pretty quiet last-year lives for then current-gen (XBO, Saturn) notable releases (particularly 1P) before releasing next-gen consoles (Series, Dreamcast), etc.).
In fact there's probably some argument to be had in parallels between the Series and Dreamcast, i.e a bigger focus on smaller A/AA games of various varieties as primary draws into the ecosystem, launching cheaper than the competition (in MS's case via lower-priced Series S SKU), etc. Of course that may not exactly be the best comparison either considering what ultimately happened with Dreamcast in the face of PS2, and IMO the PS5 is taking a very PS2-era strategy (relying on a lot of big 3P AAA timed exclusives, some earlier 1P exclusives from Day 1 to tide over for the bigger 1P AAA games to come shortly, etc.).
------------
OP I picked everyone in that poll. I think if things played out as they did except with Sony not entering, Microsoft would have chosen to not enter, either, and Nintendo still going with carts would've given a bigger opportunity for companies like Sega. TBH without PlayStation I think the Saturn would've taken its place in the industry. People lament how hard it was to develop for but it's actually easier than say the PS2 or especially the PS3 would end up being, and Sega provided a lot of documentation on the hardware itself so that wasn't an issue. Sony simply changed the game on that front, Sega and Nintendo didn't see that coming.
Maybe the PC-FX does a bit better in Japan than it did but I still think it'd of needed the 3D graphics chip they ended up removing anyway and putting in the PC GPU accelerator card. However the whole reason they removed it was because the 3D wasn't as good as Saturn's or PS1's, so the PC-FX would've taken the place Saturn had perception-wise with 3D compared to PS1, and Saturn taking the PS1's place instead. I think you'd have less 3Ps outright abandoning Nintendo like they did, so you'd probably end up with Square at least still supporting them with FF games. But with Saturn having CDs as an advantage I think based on early JRPG results on Saturn you'd start to see companies like Square pressure Nintendo to push the 64DD sooner and more aggressively, or maybe do something like packing in a new Final Fantasy with it to drive adoption rates. I do think other primarily-Nintendo JRPG devs would take the plunge and at least do ports of N64 titles to Saturn or do Saturn-specific releases, especially if the 64DD wouldn't work out.
Other companies like Namco, would probably just support both Nintendo and Sega that gen because they technically did that with PS1 and N64 in reality anyway. Same goes for Capcom, Konami, etc. So Japanese 3P support between Nintendo and Sega would be at much greater parity than it was in the MegaDrive/SFC era, easily. Considering even the PS1 did not make Nintendo drop the 64DD in lieu of a CD-ROM add-on there's virtually no chance they'd do so due to a timeline where only the Saturn was their big competitor.
Ironically in this same kind of timeline it's possible Nintendo does better in the West with N64 because Sega emphasis less relationships with Western devs (due to bigger gains with Japanese developers), leaving Nintendo open to snag up more of their support. N64 already had a good amount of Western support but imagining Nintendo forming partnerships with studios like Lobotomy would've been very interesting. But anyway, regarding NEC and SNK, while I couldn't picture them doing too much better in a market where Sony wasn't a player, I could see them maybe teaming up to develop a next-gen 2D/3D Neo-Geo 2 type of arcade system and just focus their gaming efforts there primarily, while doing ports to Nintendo and Sega consoles (which is what they eventually did anyway).
While the PC-FX might've done a bit better with the 3D included out of the box, it still would've came a distant third to Nintendo and Sega, and probably even behind 3DO globally (tho bettering it sales-wise in Japan). I think even by the tail end of PC-Engine NEC didn'd see the console market as fruitful for them, but if they wanted to stay in gaming, why not focus on a sector where the hardware is sold with high profit margins, i.e arcades? SNK already had a lot of arcade experience and I think together they could've done something like a Hyper Neo-Geo 64 earlier and with possibly better 3D while having genuine (then) next-gen 2D capabilities basically taking the spot of the M2 while having at least as good 3D and vastly better 2D specs, aiming at a lower pricing tier for arcade operators compared to something like the Model 3 (and squeezing out the Titan-STV in performance metrics).
But then there's also SNK to consider there; without PS1 that gives a stronger Sega and Nintendo and maybe SNK just "skips" the Neo-Geo CD as-is for a new console in late 1996 or early/mid 1997 that serves as a relatively consolized version of a 2D/3D "Neo-Geo 2". And, maybe they decide to not work with NEC/Hudson, or only consider such if NEC/Hudson approach them with the proposition as a means of moving on quickly from the PC-FX (especially if they don't go with integrated 3D built-in).
One thing's for sure, the market would've been a lot more active with more companies pulling in different directions, which would've been neat to see happen in its own way TBH.
