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Gamepass hits 25m subs

You don't start with 100 million users because Gamepass never had 100 million users. There are 25 million right now.

And many of those 25 million aren't even paying those $10 / month. Some of those are $1-per-3-months subscriptions ($0.33 /month), some are 3-years-Gold-converted-to-Gamepass-for-$120 - like me - ($3.33 /month until 2025), some are even using VPN to buy Gold on the Turkish store for like $30/year to make it even cheaper.

When do you expect Microsoft to have 100 million users? Gamepass has been a great deal for consumers since it released in 2017. But even during the excellent conditions of the pandemic, with government-enforced isolation periods and people stuck in their houses, Gamepass rose 66% in the last 15 months.
With a ~53% growth per year, it'll take until April 2025 to reach 100 million subscribers. Assuming all these purchases compensate for a general decrease in videogame/electronics expenditure if/when people get to leave their houses.
I’m aware of the variability. I simply intended to demonstrate how long it’s going to take to recoup the initial investment even if the subscription service performs incredibly.
 

nosseman

Member
- Investment so far: $75B
- 25 million subscribers
- let's say $120/year each
- new employees (Bethesda + Activision Blizzard): 12 000
- Earlier Xbox Games Studios employees: ~1000 (I think?)
- Cost per employee per year: shall we say $80K? Probably a lot more due to infrastructure and equipment, not just salaries, but let's stay at $80K.


Profit structure:
25 million * 120 = $3B / year

Cost structure:
- $75B investment
- Employees: 13000 * 80K / year = $1B / year


Profit / year = $3B / year - $1B / year = $2B / Year.

Time to recoup investment if 25M people only use gamepass at current prices: 38 years.
If 50M people only use gamepass at current prices: 19 years.


Edit: because some people fail at reading I needed to put bold on some text.
You are forgetting one thing - stock.

If they show healthy and huge increases to Gamepass subscriptions the stock will rise like hell.

There is the real potential.

 

Ozriel

M$FT
the sheer amount of trash is, too.

Eh. More quality than trash.

k2RyFpU.png
 

ZehDon

Gold Member
25 million is a good number - up 7 million in a year, with Halo and Forza pretty much being the only exclusives to launch on it. Can't wait to see what happens when Starfield drops.

With Activision Blizzard games obviously coming to Gamepass - they make sure they mention Gamepass in the purchase press release - I don't foresee a time where I don't have an active subscription.
 
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Stuart360

Member
Eh. More quality than trash.

k2RyFpU.png
Yeah i have talked about this before on here. Haters try to suggest that Gamepass is full of trash but Microsoft are actually quite demanding on the quality of games they bring to Gamepass.
Its either well reviewed games in the 75+ range, or lower rated games but games that have large fanbases and communities (like Conan Exiles, DayZ, etc).

You can label trash at Steam with their 'any game goes' attitude (especially with Indies), but not with Gamepass.
 
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Relique

Member
I’m aware of the variability. I simply intended to demonstrate how long it’s going to take to recoup the initial investment even if the subscription service performs incredibly.
Why are the calculations only including gamepass subs to recoup these investments? Makes no sense. Microsoft games like Sea of Thieves, Forza Horizon, and Halo still sell millions on steam and and their own platforms. We are also excluding microtransactions? Warzone generates 1.8 billion dollars a year and that's a f2p game.
 
Why are the calculations only including gamepass subs to recoup these investments? Makes no sense. Microsoft games like Sea of Thieves, Forza Horizon, and Halo still sell millions on steam and and their own platforms. We are also excluding microtransactions? Warzone generates 1.8 billion dollars a year and that's a f2p game.
It was purely a mathematical exercise to demonstrate the scope of investment. It was not meant to be comprehensive.
 

Beechos

Member
Around the time Disney stops selling their movies on Blu-Ray and makes them exclusive to Disney+ :)
Hey thats one benefit of disney+ their physical movies get discounted all the time now. Prior to disney+ their movies used sell for like $30. Now you can get them for like $10 during sales.
 

Fredrik

Member
I've been able to play more AAA and indie titles in the past year than I played in the past 5 years combined.

If you like gaming, gamepass gives you a lot of choice...
Yeah I bought zero games on Xbox last year and played about 30. I’m turning 46 soon, been gaming since the early 80s, for me Gamepass is the best thing that has happened in gaming during my lifetime. People are weirdly hung up on owning games but I really don’t understand why. Do people still buy TV show boxes?
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Yeah I bought zero games on Xbox last year and played about 30. I’m turning 46 soon, been gaming since the early 80s, for me Gamepass is the best thing that has happened in gaming during my lifetime. People are weirdly hung up on owning games but I really don’t understand why. Do people still buy TV show boxes?
Ya it's a weird thing.

Gaming has weird aura that ownership is everything for many people. But then again it cant be that important as the trend is digital and digital copies can get yanked.

But then for everything else like movies, tv, and music, subs plans are a-ok even though everything can still be bought. Even 99 cent songs and $9.99 BR movies are too much. Better to sign up for Spotify or Netflix.
 
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OmegaSupreme

advanced basic bitch
We also announced today that Game Pass now has more than 25 million subscribers.


Back to the other thread now.

Up from 18m in Jan 21 so 7m in a year.
We?
 

Fredrik

Member
[snip]

But then for everything else like movies, tv, and music, subs plans are a-ok even though everything can still be bought. Even 99 cent songs and $9.99 BR movies are too much. Better to sign up for Spotify or Netflix.
Exactly and with music and movies there is a quality decrease too and it’s still what most people use. The equivalent to Gamepass in the music and movie industry would be downloadable FLAC files and Blu-ray rips.
 
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I've also noticed that nobody seems to be talking about King, I have no doubt they have a higher profit margin than COD. It's the dumb-ass Michael Bay summer blockbuster to finance the niche passion projects that Hollywood used to be creative enough to make.
 

twilo99

Member
Yeah I bought zero games on Xbox last year and played about 30. I’m turning 46 soon, been gaming since the early 80s, for me Gamepass is the best thing that has happened in gaming during my lifetime. People are weirdly hung up on owning games but I really don’t understand why. Do people still buy TV show boxes?

I dunno, people enjoy physical things as well.. which is why vinyl is still a thing;)

But yes, when it comes to video games I really don't care about owning it and that goes for all forms of entertainment.
 
But the Tweet I quoted said the deal is closed? Or have I misread what that means?

You either misread or the tweet you read did not convey the scale of this.

This acquisition will take over a year. Right now it's just Microsoft put forward intent to acquire and Activision agreed to terms.

This will require dealing with government officials and legal systems in multiple countries to approve before it's even really a thing and like with Zenimax nobody is really at liberty to discuss the details of anything which you'll hear Phil Spencer repeat a lot in the next year and a half. Activision is a juggernaut of a publisher that has ties to many different economies around the globe and the money that is exchanging hands here is 10 times what anything in the industry has ever been acquired for. This is so much bigger than the Zenimax acquisition it's mind-boggling.

Ya it's a weird thing.

Gaming has weird aura that ownership is everything for many people. But then again it cant be that important as the trend is digital and digital copies can get yanked.

But then for everything else like movies, tv, and music, subs plans are a-ok even though everything can still be bought. Even 99 cent songs and $9.99 BR movies are too much. Better to sign up for Spotify or Netflix.

To me the value in ownership only exists when the product has actual value, be it nostalgic or financial. There's still something about grabbing a box off a shelf, taking out a cartridge and slapping it in the old NES. My body produces a happy chemical and I feel all warm and fuzzy. It's like a drug, only I bought this one when I was eight.

My brother still has every Nintendo game he ever bought and has them stored properly. I add any games I own that he doesn't own to his collection any time a new system releases. His collection is worth so much more than what he put into it that it will be a feasible way to offset inflation with no real cost associated. When he gets to a certain point (barring world-scale civil war) he'll be able to sell the collection and make his later years easier (assuming everything isn't on fire). Meanwhile my entire Xbox and Xbox 360 libraries are almost completely worthless, so Gamepass and Steam works out just fine for me going forward.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
May as well have. Not like they share sales numbers anyway, right?

There's enough information out from sales charts and Steam releases to infer how well their games are doing at retail.

Your response makes no sense in that context. Basically saying retail sales outside Gamepass are irrelevant and unimportant because they haven't shared official sales numbers.
 

OmegaSupreme

advanced basic bitch
There's enough information out from sales charts and Steam releases to infer how well their games are doing at retail.

Your response makes no sense in that context. Basically saying retail sales outside Gamepass are irrelevant and unimportant because they haven't shared official sales numbers.
Gamepass is where they are putting their eggs is it not? It's obvious that's where the money and effort is going. You'd be a fool to buy halo retail and not to just have gamepass to be fair.
 

Cyberpunkd

Member
My brother still has every Nintendo game he ever bought and has them stored properly. I add any games I own that he doesn't own to his collection any time a new system releases. His collection is worth so much more than what he put into it that it will be a feasible way to offset inflation with no real cost associated. When he gets to a certain point (barring world-scale civil war) he'll be able to sell the collection and make his later years easier (assuming everything isn't on fire). Meanwhile my entire Xbox and Xbox 360 libraries are almost completely worthless, so Gamepass and Steam works out just fine for me going forward.
Rolex Daytonas that are selling for crazy money now we’re sitting in unsold bins in the 1980s because nobody wanted them. Just saying, collecting is always linked to luck.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Hopefully they start peppering in some Acti-Blizzard games onto Game Pass soon, instead of waiting for the deal to close for the mother-load.

I would absolutely not mind Diablo 2 next month or so.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
Gamepass is where they are putting their eggs is it not? It's obvious that's where the money and effort is going. You'd be a fool to buy halo retail and not to just have gamepass to be fair.

Sea of thieves sold 5 million copies on Steam. Forza Horizon 5 has most certainly crossed the million mark on Steam. Halo Infinite’s the second best selling game in December NPD.

There’s a very large portion of the user base that buys retail. And their money and effort is going towards both Gamepass and retail.
 
Eh. More quality than trash.

k2RyFpU.png

If one cannot find games to play for at least one year continuously with Gamepass I question if that person actually likes to play games. There is so much diversity, turnover and A-grade, B-grade and C-grade content to dive into. Absolutely hands down the best value proposition going in gaming today, second to none.
 

Three

Member
Same here, will finally play a COD game since Modern Warfare 😂
Lol, if you liked COD why didn't you actually just play it before? You use to shitmouth COD Nostradamus about how it will flop.

Battlefield will be alright, Vanguard on the other hand ..

On Halo release you were saying how Vanguard is in trouble. This aged like the already out of date milk it was. Battlefield will be alright 😂
 

ZywyPL

Banned
Exactly and with music and movies there is a quality decrease too and it’s still what most people use. The equivalent to Gamepass in the music and movie industry would be downloadable FLAC files and Blu-ray rips.

That's why I believe streaming will easily take over the market, most people simply doesn't care about the quality as much as for the content itself. Many people still watch DVD, SD TV and so on on their 4K TVs, and they couldn't care less as. So a decreased resolution and slight input-lag for couple of bucks per month, most average Joes not only won't mind, they'll love it.
 
Looking forward to all the people who were adamant it was 30 million and it was not a lie and he did know the figures either eating that crow or accepting that Microsoft has lost 1 in 6 of it's subscribers in just 4 months.
That's what you're looking forward to?
 
You are forgetting one thing - stock.

If they show healthy and huge increases to Gamepass subscriptions the stock will rise like hell.

There is the real potential.

He's forgetting microtransactions which are the bigger money maker than the subscription itself, I honestly have trouble reading posts that are supposed to be clever and are completely wrong.
 

IDKFA

I am Become Bilbo Baggins
Serious question, but doesn't anyone else think that's a low figure?

Gamepass has been available for a few years now, plus it's also available on PC. I expected to be higher than 25 million.
 
Serious question, but doesn't anyone else think that's a low figure?

Gamepass has been available for a few years now, plus it's also available on PC. I expected to be higher than 25 million.
It takes time, I'd imagine the uptake will be far faster as this generation continues, expecting 35 to 40m by the end of the year.
 

IDKFA

I am Become Bilbo Baggins
It takes time, I'd imagine the uptake will be far faster as this generation continues, expecting 35 to 40m by the end of the year.

Hold up.

Since Gamepass has been around, they've currently got 25 million subscribers. What makes you think they'll add another 10-15 million subscribers by December?
 
Hold up.

Since Gamepass has been around, they've currently got 25 million subscribers. What makes you think they'll add another 10-15 million subscribers by December?
Bethesda releases Starfield, this acquisition I imagine will attract more customers (even though it will take time for the games to appear). Bigger third party games will appear day of release this year as well, the market has far more confidence in Gamepass with this huge move. Everyone now knows Gamepass is here to stay and more and better games make it more desirable than its ever been.
 

octiny

Banned
Serious question, but doesn't anyone else think that's a low figure?

Gamepass has been available for a few years now, plus it's also available on PC. I expected to be higher than 25 million.

Adding 7 million subs in one year is low? They only released 2 major exclusives last year. Imagine once CoD, Starfield & all the other countless games from all their studios start piling in.

I believe they will be closer to 40 million by end of year provided Redfall, Forza, Starfield etc are out by then. Not counting any other surprises they may have in store. It's the domino effect of momentum.

Hold up.

Since Gamepass has been around, they've currently got 25 million subscribers. What makes you think they'll add another 10-15 million subscribers by December?

Games.
 
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