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ELDEN RING |OT| One Ring To Rule Them All

Yes I think we can

Fortunately there's a similar game recently released in the same caliber as Elden Ring in term of market anticipation, Cyberpunk

Cyberpunk was released on December 10, 2020, on PC+PS4+Xbox. Since it's recently released, gamers install base should be relatively the same between Dec-2020 to today.

Cyberpunk Steam peak players right after it's released is 1.054 million. A couple of months after release, CDPR said despite issues, Cyberpunk has sold 13.7 million in 2020 (that's 3 weeks worth of sale) with breakdown of 56% PC, 28% PS4, and 17% Xbox

Elden Ring Steam peak players is 891K. But we know Soulsborne PC install base is 40% PC and 60% console.

So using those numbers

Cyberpunk PC sales in 3 weeks = 0.56 x 13.7 = 7.672 million
Elden Ring to Cyberpunk PC sale ratio = 0.891/1.054 = 0.8444
In 3 weeks, Elden Ring PC sale should be around = 0.8444 x 7.672 = 6.478 million (Even Steamspy estimates that Elden Ring PC sales already reached, AT LEAST, 5 million)
Soulsborne install base is 40% PC, so total Elden Ring sales in 3 weeks should be around 16.2 million (PC+PS+Xbox)

A year after its release, at the end of 2021, Cyberpunk sales is estimated at 18 million copies, that's 30% of its Dec-2020 sales.

If we're to use the same ratio, Elden Ring 1-year sale should reach 21.2 million

Can someone better in math verify my numbers?
 
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AV

We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
This is guesswork at absolute best, you can't just compared different games like they're the same thing (most of the time).

Anecdotally I know a LOT of people who have bought Elden Ring that have never touched a From game before. I think it will easily be the best selling one, but by how much, who knows.
 

yazenov

Member
PS5 keeping retail afloat

Yes retailers should push the PS5 to potentials consumers who are undecided on which console to get based on physicals sales. It should get most of the shelve space and center display. If only Sony manages to produce more PS5s.
 
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Buggy Loop

Member
Studying Matt Damon GIF by MIRAMAX


I can safely say that it sold more than 890k copies
 

winjer

Gold Member
You can't compare these two games.
CP2077 was decent enough on PC, but a freaking mess on consoles. So there was a bias towards better sales on PC.
Elden Ring is almost he opposite. It runs better on consoles. And besides, From Software games have a bigger following on consoles than on PC.
 

tmlDan

Member
so you think its gonna outsell dark souls 3 by double?

I can't take this seriously.

Yes its the best launch for them ever but that's built up hype by current fans not new fans.

The game will sell more than any in the franchise but i don't think it hits 20.
 
so you think its gonna outsell dark souls 3 by double?

I can't take this seriously.

Yes its the best launch for them ever but that's built up hype by current fans not new fans.

The game will sell more than any in the franchise but i don't think it hits 20.

Elden Ring anticipation far exceeds that of Dark Souls 3, so yeah I think it can easily double DS3 sales
 
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AV

We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
Double is not even in question, triple easily or more.

It's an outstanding game but this is just silly. It doesn't have COD / Skyrim / Witcher 3 mainstream appeal to shift that many units.
 

Scotty W

Gold Member
I love this game so much that instead of playing it I am going to speculate using an arbitrary metric about how popular this game is so that I can know a few days before the official numbers are released.
 

JackSparr0w

Banned
It's an outstanding game but this is just silly. It doesn't have COD / Skyrim / Witcher 3 mainstream appeal to shift that many units.
It sold on par with Cyberpunk on PC so yes it does at least on PC. Along with Cyberpunk, Elden ring has the biggest opening ever of a single player focused game on PC.
 
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Bragr

Banned
That's some huge claims , does the sense of exploration and discovery better then BOTW ? That's why i absolutely loved BOTW
Right now everyone is hyped as hell on the game and most of the takes are bad. It's hard to say that one is better than another when it comes to exploration. One thing Elden Ring does not have is relaxation, BOTW is tranquil at times, same with Skyrim. In BOTW sometimes you will climb a mountain, just to fly back down, or spend time in certain areas because it's nice and beautiful, there is nothing like that in Elden Ring.
 
I think that's roughly correct, though I imagine the Elden Ring audience is more hardcore, plays for longer and therefore produces a higher CCU per copy sold than would normally be expected.

Either way, I think 20+M lifetime is a lock.
 

LENCH187

Member
So I took a break from exploring etc today and tried some invasions, not liking the way they are set up.. whenever you invade you are always gonna be at least 1v2 which is no fun,. I can kinda see what they are going for, but theres no point in doing it at the moment.
 

JokerMM

Gay porn is where it's at.
One thing i wish this game had is sheathing animation
Small detail but it would've added to the immersion
 
According to some report, PC number is already much higher than my estimation

 

AJUMP23

Gold Member
Is there a way to see summons signs without using the thing you craft? Or do I have to use one every time I die?



EDIT: I don't die very often though.....only like 10 times an hour.
 
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I'm now 40h in, I've never played a game where my jaw drops roughly every 5 minutes. The whole time I'm playing I'm thinking "how the fuck will FROM ever top this‽", absolute masterpiece. As I guessed earlier in this thread, the map is absolutely massive, easily 100+ hour game. When I'm not playing it I'm thinking about it, Miyazaki's dark sorcery has invaded my mind, praise the Ring!
 
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AV

We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
It sold on par with Cyberpunk on PC so yes it does at least on PC. Along with Cyberpunk, Elden ring has the biggest opening ever of a single player focused game on PC.

On PC only, maybe. I don't see Elden Ring shifting 30 millions units total but I'd love to see it happen.
 

ckaneo

Member
Isn't the UK one of the 5 biggest countries for gaming and the biggest or 2nd biggest in Europe? How is that irrelevant?
"It's irrelevant, but does help us look at trends" is the dumbest contradiction anyway.

Irrelevant as in in nolonger lets us accurately estimate the size of a release like it use to, but lets us see trends in next gen adoption and digital vs physical that the japanese market differs too greatly to take anything
 

LENCH187

Member
I'm now 40h in, don't think I've ever played a game where my jaw drops roughly every 5 minutes. The whole time I'm playing I'm thinking "how the fuck will FROM ever top this‽", absolute masterpiece. As I guessed earlier in this thread, the map is absolutely massive, easily 100+ hour game. When I'm not playing it I'm thinking about it, Miyazaki's dark sorcery has invaded my mind, praise the Ring!

well the good thing for us, is that they have set the bar now.. cant give us less next time ;)
 

kikkis

Member
So far in 25 hours only fun bosses have been Margit and Godrick, rest of them have had ton of frustrating elements. King of rancid bullshit has been Radahn.
 
On PC only, maybe. I don't see Elden Ring shifting 30 millions units total but I'd love to see it happen.

But Souls games typically sell more on Playstation due to its original fanbase. The same way for Cyberpunk sell more on PC due to CDPR origin.

So if Elden Ring PC sales already on par to that of CP77, imagine when we include PC+console number
 

Swift_Star

Banned
What’s a good endurance cap for a str/fth build? Is 18 enough? For vig/str/fth/mind I’m planning to go 35/40/40/25
 
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Maiden Voyage

Gold™ Member
It's kinda hilarious to just Leeroy Jenkins on Torrent through some enemy-filled areas and pickup every item without taking a single hit.
I got an important quest item this way.
Is there a way to see summons signs without using the thing you craft? Or do I have to use one every time I die?



EDIT: I don't die very often though.....only like 10 times an hour.
Every time as far as I know. Crafting materials for it are super easy to find so I don’t mind.
 
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