• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

akimbo009

Gold Member
A lot of times it does feel like the biggest change with MS has been in their messaging, not necessarily the desire to stomp out competitors. Some of the offers we've seen them give to Sony for COD feel indicative of that; why would Sony be interested in COD on PS+ when their revenue model is based predominantly on direct sales for gaming?

There was some ruling in the European market a couple years ago involving Microsoft doing something with one of their products, and they had to implement changes. It was only within the past 4-5 years, that ruling. And I agree that because personal computers aren't seen as "mainstream" devices anymore (the way they were in the '90s and '00s), it's allowed MS to skirt by with things regarding Windows that would have gotten a lot more attention if it weren't for smartphones.



So somehow a $2 trillion company is able to offer to buy a 3P publisher valued at $69 billion, yet can't outbid a $100 billion company for exclusivity contracts that at most probably amount to $50 million on average for the big AAA games? How does that even begin to make sense?

And that's supposing MS were even interested in pursuing those sort of deals, or other "deals" that involved them actually co-funding and co-developing those 3P exclusives alongside marketing them. Because it's pretty evident that MS were scaling back on Xbox investment heavily starting sometime around 2015 and up until they figured to buy some 3P developers in 2018.

That's almost three years where they simply wrote the XBO off more or less when it came to software exclusive investments, particularly with 3P devs/pubs. Meanwhile Sony didn't let up because when you have a platform actually meeting your expectations and is successful, you're supposed to not ease off what works. And you're ignoring the fact that software sales of 3P games on XBO were already dropping on average even as soon as 2015, outside of some exceptions.

The RotTR fiasco was due to MS being stupidly unclear on the exclusivity terms, and they had just declared all 1P games would be Day 1 on PC the year prior, suggesting their angle was to prioritize PC more. Yet they secured a third-party exclusive that wasn't even going to go to PC until two months later? Why say you're bringing your 1P games to PC Day 1, but get a 3P exclusive that won't go to PC until months after it hits your consoles? That was terrible messaging on Microsoft's part, they got chewed out for it.

Sony's "weight" when it comes to getting 3P exclusives is due to them providing a product actual gamers/customers came to prefer over competitors, and Sony giving a damn to actually work with 3P developers in co-funding, co-developing and co-marketing games. It's not their fault Microsoft provided a console gamers didn't gravitate towards as much, or that Microsoft cancelled multiple 3P games left and right (like Scalebound) and didn't invest in things like Marvel offers, or lock down Double Helix, etc.

Stop blaming Sony for all of Xbox's problems.

Ain't blaming Sony for anything but what they do, and calling out for every action there is a reaction. No one got tears for Sony or MS.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Interesting, so which one does the Vita and PSP fall in again?

Where the fuck is the HDMI port on this damn console?

GUEST_41eabaf7-139b-4991-837c-e9b4edefe81c
 

Three

Member
Ahh the true PS2 competitor.
Sounds absurd right? Yet that's what some wax lyrical about here.

But I know you're referring to my post which you completely misunderstood.

I replied to

No, cause it failed against even the DS let alone consoles.
I only said this doesn't make sense because "let alone consoles" makes it seem like the DS didn't outsell every single console except PS2.

What didn't fail against the DS except PS2?

Wait, the PS2 and DS were competing?
 
Last edited:
This is the most important factor of this acquisition, but for some strange reason, also the most dismissed factor. It also speaks volumes as to Microsoft's decision making. They were not expecting any push back from any sector. If they did, they would pushed the completion date back a year or two.

Some forum members will contest that Microsoft went into the acquisition knowing the potential road blocks. But if you go back a few pages, those same members were also saying this was a done deal as soon as it was announced.

???

These dates have been pushed back before...
 

reksveks

Member
Thinking about the following and how the regulators typically do this kind of analysis especially what level of price increase they test.

Demand-side substitution​

Demand-side substitution takes place when consumers switch from one product to another in response to a change in the relative prices of the products. If consumers are in a position to switch to available substitute products or to begin sourcing their requirements from suppliers located in other areas, then it is unlikely that price increases will be profitable. Therefore, it is necessary to progressively include in the relevant market the products to which consumers would most likely switch in response to a relative price rise, repeating the exercise at each stage until a collection of products is reached that is worth monopolising.

When examining the likely responses of consumers, it is the response of the marginal consumer, not the average consumer which is important. Therefore, a small but significant number of consumers (generally 5 to 10 percent) switching to another product when there is a price increase is considered a sufficient condition for both goods to be defined as forming part of the same relevant market. Therefore, the existence of a group of consumers who would never switch in response to a relative price increase is not by itself sufficient to conclude that the relevant market should be defined narrowly.

Also interesting the level % of consumers changing is quite small.
 
Last edited:
Interesting, so which one does the Vita and PSP fall in again?
Console. So if you want to believe that the Vita was in competition with Xbox go right ahead. I'll stick with it being a Gameboy competitor. None of that has anything to do with Switch being in the same market as Xbox and PlayStation. Like it or lump it.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
Stalker 2, The Medium, Ascent, W40k: Darktide, Scorn. Just a few

Thanks for the reply. Definitely happening, but these are AA and indies. Some gems in there but nothing like FF7R or Ghostwire, etc.

I don't think MS has grabbed a AAA exclusive for while. I don't think it's not for trying, but their position in the market doesn't make them too appealing for leading publishers to get in on a deal like that.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Thanks for the reply. Definitely happening, but these are AA and indies. Some gems in there but nothing like FF7R or Ghostwire, etc.

I don't think MS has grabbed a AAA exclusive for while. I don't think it's not for trying, but their position in the market doesn't make them too appealing for leading publishers to get in on a deal like that.
Stalker 2 is not a AA Indie, lol.
 

feynoob

Member
Paying to keep games off of game pass and whole sale releasing on Xbox, but also concerned that MS might release CoD on game pass day 1.

real Veruca Salt energy here from Sony. :messenger_unamused:
This is normal industry behavour.
MS would do the same, once they are in strong position.

Remember Xbox360? That is what would happen to the next xbox, if they keep their trajectory.
 

reksveks

Member
R reksveks What do you think about this?

Three (if I have that correct) delays kinda feels like you are taking the piss but I am trying to figure out when the federal court case that currently is going is ending and when we are expecting the judgement cause it may be just rather irrelevant.

I think the ftc may be able to take it back in-house if they lose in federal system.

If they win, mark I think has said he is dropping the acquisition.
 

kungfuian

Member
Also the same “gamers” that bother to write to the CMA are the same sorry fucks who will cry on Twitter if COD remains multiplatform.
Microsoft is such a sleazy company and their tactics are obvious to anyone who isn't a warrior or doesn't have their head in the sand. Fast forward a year from now and I wouldn't be surprised the headlines reading "Evidence suggest Microsoft used bots in respond to CMA Public Response E-mail campaign".

It's all lies. They are one of the largest companies on earth attempting to buy out the games industry one publisher at a time. They have no interest in competition. That's a load of crap. They want full control of the market, and they will lie, steal, cheat, and manipulate the system to get what they want; all within the boundaries of the 'law'.

Any GAF members actually believe these e-mails are legit or in any way representative of public opinion please PM me, I've got some great time shares in Arizona you might be interested in.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
This is normal industry behavour.
MS would do the same, once they are in strong position.

Remember Xbox360? That is what would happen to the next xbox, if they keep their trajectory.

"Once they are in a strong position"
"next xbox"

You're saying similar things some of the detractors said to CMA "we're worried that next gen we might have to buy a different console because of CoD" :messenger_grinning_sweat:

The practice of getting exclusive content is not new, but in light of their public whining about possibility of losing CoD or even it releasing on game pass day 1, while actively holding back several big named franchises from releasing on Xbox, it comes off a bit pompous.

Also the same “gamers” that bother to write to the CMA are the same sorry fucks who will cry on Twitter if COD remains multiplatform.

Are you talking about the "gamers" who wrote for the deal or against the deal ? or both ?
 
Last edited:

Three

Member
Console. So if you want to believe that the Vita was in competition with Xbox go right ahead. I'll stick with it being a Gameboy competitor. None of that has anything to do with Switch being in the same market as Xbox and PlayStation. Like it or lump it.

Brilliant. All Nintendo needed to do to convince potential xbox and PS2 owners to buy a DS instead was include a hdmi out and ability to use an external controller then took out an ad in the newspaper. Think of all the PS2 and xbox users who would have migrated to it instead. That's all that mattered, performance for game development and audience is completely irrelevant after all. Just that one feature and the little library crossover that existed would have made them a viable competitor. Should have told them not to bother with the gamecube.

I like the fact that you broadly say xbox and playstation too instead of Xbox Series and PS5 because little to no games that are next gen exclusives have that library crossover with switch (like PS5 and Xbox Series do) due to that growing power difference.

When was the major title MS grabbed this way... Since Tomb Raider I can't think of any (it's a real question)
If it's a genuine question they had a timed exclusivity deal for Dead Rising 4 after Tomb Raider. PUBG after that too. The Medium and several currently active gamepass timed exclusive contracts.
 
Last edited:

KingT731

Member
Sony is egregious in this way though. They use their market position to get favorable terms which - using FF7R - have become effective proxies to locking out content from other platforms. We also know that Starfield was about to undergo a similar exclusive rights process as well.

MS has an obligation to provide content to its customers. There's a lot of ways they can do that, but if their competitor is isolating content consistently and asymmetrically then they need to do something different (acquire in this case).

There's a lot of ways they can combat the situation, but papering over Sony's bullshit is just more bullshit.
Bro MS literally had multiple showcases where the majority of the things shown were "Console Launch Exclusive" and if it wasn't that it was launching on GP. BE FOR REAL.
 
Last edited:

akimbo009

Gold Member
Microsoft is such a sleazy company and their tactics are obvious to anyone who isn't a warrior or doesn't have their head in the sand. Fast forward a year from now and I wouldn't be surprised the headlines reading "Evidence suggest Microsoft used bots in respond to CMA Public Response E-mail campaign".

It's all lies. They are one of the largest companies on earth attempting to buy out the games industry one publisher at a time. They have no interest in competition. That's a load of crap. They want full control of the market, and they will lie, steal, cheat, and manipulate the system to get what they want; all within the boundaries of the 'law'.

Any GAF members actually believe these e-mails are legit or in any way representative of public opinion please PM me, I've got some great time shares in Arizona you might be interested in.

Do you take salt with your coffee?
 
Idas expects CMA to approve without remedies.


https://www.resetera.com/threads/th...e-right-to-put-cod-on-ps.633344/post-98577454

OK, let's play the guessing game :p

My crazy gut feeling is that the CMA will approve it... without remedies.

Reasons:

- I don't think that there are good arguments for a complete prohibition.

- Behavioural remedies would be the logic way to go but right now the CMA does not like behavioural remedies (unless they are easy and cheap to control, just for a few years and on a very regulated industry). That's not the situation here and they won't set a precedent just for this case (it would mean trouble for the future).

- In the last 3 years there have been 6 cases (Amazon/Deliveroo, Liberty Global/Telefónica, Bottomline Technologies/Experian, Sony Music/AWAL, NortonLifeLock/Avast and London Stock Exchange/Quantile) where the same happened: very negative feedback in Phase 1, clearance without remedies in Phase 2. In two of those six cases the chair of the Inquiry Group for Phase 2 was Martin Coleman, the chair for the MS/ABK case.

The alternative is approval only if MS/ABK divest Activision or a similar asset, something that MS won't accept (the merger agreement is clear) and in that case the deal will be abandoned in January or in March if they wait until the final report.

Anyway, we'll know for sure in 2-3 weeks.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
Brilliant. All Nintendo needed to do to convince potential xbox and PS2 owners to buy a DS instead was include a hdmi out and ability to use an external controller then took out an ad in the newspaper. Think of all the PS2 and xbox users who would have migrated to it instead. That's all that mattered, performance for game development and audience is completely irrelevant after all. Just that one feature and the little library crossover that existed would have made them a viable competitor. Should have told them not to bother with the gamecube.

I like the fact that you broadly say xbox and playstation too instead of Xbox Series and PS5 because little to no games that are next gen exclusives have that library crossover with switch (like PS5 and Xbox Series do) due to that growing power difference.


If it's a genuine question they had a timed exclusivity deal for Dead Rising 4 after Tomb Raider. PUBG after that too. The Medium and several currently active gamepass timed exclusive contracts.

I'll concede here. PUBG was a real get.

No one better bitch about moneyhat again though :)
 

feynoob

Member
"Once they are in a strong position"
"next xbox"

You're saying similar things some of the detractors said to CMA "we're worried that next gen we might have to buy a different console because of CoD" :messenger_grinning_sweat:

The practice of getting exclusive content is not new, but in light of their public whining about possibility of losing CoD or even it releasing on game pass day 1, while actively holding back several big named franchises from releasing on Xbox, it comes off a bit pompous.
This isnt about ftc or anything.
Once a company is in strong position, they will do whatever they can to maintain that position.

If MS improves xbox, they would be aggressive with their business, and go full ham with exclusives.

Its just your normal day in the business world.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom