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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Fredrik

Member
So give away the games for free and then make the dev times shorter. Nope on any of that crap. It’s why I don’t think GP is all that good for the industry, it can make AAA gaming worse quality because the incentive structure doesn’t prioritize high budgets

I would rather continue paying retail prices, have third party games available on Xbox too, and just get more new games from new studios

I don’t sub to the higher PlayStation subs. Gaming is a cheap hobby, just give me more games of higher quality and I’ll buy it
Tbh I don’t disagree that there could be long term consequences but I’ve been gaming so long that I don’t think the whole industry will collapse, big changes has already happened, the industry will adapt and evolve as usual if it’s all bad ideas. The games library is where the big money is anyway so I’m always looking for ways to get games cheaper; sales, subscriptions, discounts etc. I prepaid for a couple years on both PS+ Premium and GP Ultimate so definitely hoping for more focus on subscription libraries right now. And if they start increasing prices too much I’ll just drop out when I feel like the monthly cost isn’t giving me enough for my money.
 

Helghan

Member
Can you explain to me why you think this deal is good for you as a gamer or the industry at large?

Wouldn’t it be better for a hugely successful company to stay wholly independent while some of that cash Microsoft had be deployed towards growing existing studios and forming new ones so that the industry gets more games to play overall?
  • Games will be added to Game Pass day 1
  • Developers can properly unionize
  • Developers will have better working conditions, which hopefully results in better games
 

Ozriel

M$FT
I think just seeing other streaming services. That the content doesn't come for free. For Netflix and other services to have all these original shows, we see that they're constantly having to increase subscription costs. And I think this basically will be true for Microsoft. They have more leeway than other companies to just lose money, but it's a lot easier to do when they're not actively releasing games. Once these hundred plus million dollar games actually start to come out, it seems likely that their current prices will not be adequate. The problem is even bigger with COD because it's such an expensive game to make every year. And then it also basically means that MS will no longer be making money on xbox live. Right now, if you enjoy playing COD on xbox and gamepass, you'd be paying MS more money than if COD was just on gamepass.

So in terms of economic profit, I think it would not make sense for MS.


Out of curiosity, do you people assume folks pay for Gamepass with bananas? Or thoughts and prayers?
The service keeps people subscribed, paying $10 - $15 monthly to play these games. Over 25 millions people now, and trending upward. You’d have to imagine these numbers go up significantly if COD is put on the service. And people who play games like COD will remain subscribed for Long.

At the same time, the games are on sale on every other platform. Each Call of Duty game brings billions in revenue from PlayStation and PC releases. Cost already likely fully recouped in a short while.

The Netflix comparison isn’t apt, since content cost for these platforms are spiraling, and total expenditure on content goes over the $10bn mark.
 
How does putting COD on Gamepass become a negative for the franchise? More people play. More MTX revenue. Way more engagement for a crossplay title.
Which means games will even more so then ever rely on mtx revenue. Meaning more stuff to incentivice spending money IN the game probably ending in unfair adavantages for those that have more cash.

This isn't what gaming should be about.
And I will refrain from supporting these kinds of things.
 

aries_71

Junior Member
And people who play games like COD will remain subscribed for long.
Exactly. One day all these enthusiasts and emotional posters will understand that MS strategy doesn’t consist on making an exclusive out of COD and loosing a bunch of money in the process. They want it to have long term subscription to Gamepass, following exactly the same strategy any streaming service employs to retain subscribers. Why is so difficult to understand?
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
Which means games will even more so then ever rely on mtx revenue. Meaning more stuff to incentivice spending money IN the game probably ending in unfair adavantages for those that have more cash.

This isn't what gaming should be about.
And I will refrain from supporting these kinds of things.

😂😂😂😂

You do know what sort of game Call of Duty is, don’t you?

Why exactly would putting it on GP or a bigger playerbase mean they’d rely any further on MTX revenue?
 

Three

Member
How does putting COD on Gamepass become a negative for the franchise? More people play. More MTX revenue. Way more engagement for a crossplay title.
If more people play so more MTX was better for COD then they would have just made it f2p.
 

Brucey

Member
Out of curiosity, do you people assume folks pay for Gamepass with bananas? Or thoughts and prayers?
The service keeps people subscribed, paying $10 - $15 monthly to play these games. Over 25 millions people now, and trending upward. You’d have to imagine these numbers go up significantly if COD is put on the service. And people who play games like COD will remain subscribed for Long.
How many of those 25 million are just trying it out for a $1? Or converted up to 3 years of xbl gold for a $1, giving a price equivalent of $5 per month or less?


b8f09F5.jpg

https://www.pcworld.com/article/397667/get-3-years-xbox-game-pass-ultimate-tip.html
 

ToadMan

Member
Would a Federal judge demand strict remedies that MS doesn't like?

The Federal court doesn’t make that kind of decision to my knowledge.

If it got that far, it would be MS appealing the FTC ruling handed down by the administrative court.

Federal circuit will often defer to prior court rulings anyway - MS would need to find a procedural reason to overturn the ruling or something else that meets judicial criteria. If the Appeal court found for MS, the FTC could appeal that decision to the supreme court.

Possible outcomes at the circuit court are - uphold FTC judgement, favor MS and quash FTC judgement, remit back to the FTC for further assessment. But the circuit court wouldn’t delve deep into the actual remedies because it’s not their jurisdiction or responsibility. They focus on the law and whether it has been applied rationally and reasonably, not the concept of the decision made by the FTC.
 

ToadMan

Member
10 years buy them enough time to make their own COD too.

Let's not kid ourselves, current Sony can do it easily. A Si-Fi TLOU style FPS isn't out of the realm of possibility for them to achieve.

If current sony can do it easily - then it is far easier for current MS.

Another reason the deal is blocked.
 
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DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
c13K3gb.png



Footnote 537 is a reference to Microsoft's response to the CMA where Microsoft reminded the CMA of exactly what they told them they would do with Zenimax's games. Microsoft made themselves clear and CMA has concluded Microsoft has honored existing contractual agreements and acted in accordance with the statements it made on the Zenimax acquisition.

iaLemdQ.png


Phil said Minecraft would stay on all platforms. He kept his promise.

p55HeZE.png


Two more footnotes. 210 and 213. Microsoft specifically told CMA that they were going to make Zenimax games that were exclusive to Xbox in their Form CO when they were being investigated for the ZeniMax purchase. And Microsoft in footnote 210 stated they would honor all ZeniMax obligations and continue to make current games available on other gaming hardware, including Deathloop and Ghostwire Tokyo.

80atJcm.png



Microsoft told the truth on Minecraft. They told the truth about Zenimax. No reason to think they can't be taken at their word on Activision Blizzard.

If you're saying Microsoft never told the EU about its intentions to make some Zenimax games exclusive you are wrong.

The EU literally put it in their final report... a section on Microsoft's strategy on future ZeniMax games.

The EU literally also points out that one of the first questions Microsoft answered was about future zenimax games and them being exclusive on November 6th, 2020 in a question that Microsoft and Zenimax responded to. So they knew about possible Zenimax exclusives on Xbox as early as November 6th, 2020. And Microsoft told them again in their Form CO to the EU on Jan, 29th, 2021.

G3PXoTp.jpg


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The EU fully accounted for exclusivity as a possibility after the ZeniMax purchase by Microsoft. It's all over their final report. Anyone claiming that the EU was totally blindsided about Xbox exclusives is not reading the full facts, which is exactly why they challenged the FTC publicly.

The EU also concluded that input foreclosure using Zenmax games would not be possible because a sufficiently high number of new players wouldn't switch to Xbox in to make it harm rivals. That's what it means for an input foreclosure to prove damaging to competition. We literally have people in this thread saying they won't buy an Xbox to play Zenimax games... so the EU was correct!

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The EU was not blindsided or lied to about the possibility that Microsoft would make Zenimax games exclusive. They just concluded that, even if they did, it wouldn't cause a big enough rush of users switching from playstation to be considered highly damaging. Microsoft DID in fact notify the EU that their determination on future Zenimax games would be made on a case-by-case basis. Microsoft did not lie.

The EU also seems to understand that Microsoft was referring to existing zenimax games and ones under contract, leaving them available for purchase on playstation after the transaction closed. How could they not know, they literally reference Microsoft's statements about future games in their final report 4 different times.

Fuck me, Microsoft never lied and were straight up in their contracts from the beginning.

Praise for bringing the receipts SenjutsuSage SenjutsuSage . This also backs up phils comments on when the sale closed and he said that starfield etc were purchased to bolster Xbox first party output.

On another note, I find it funny that I said what happens if Microsoft threatens or openly considers pulling out of the UK and I got dog piled on....now it seems like they are doing it...this deal is more important to them than the UK market and Microsoft is more important to the entire UK business structure and MS knows it.

This is heating up yet again.
 
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aries_71

Junior Member
Fuck me, Microsoft never lied and were straight up in their contracts from the beginning.

Praise for bringing the receipts SenjutsuSage SenjutsuSage . This also backs up phils comments on when the sale closed and he said that starfield etc were purchased to bolster Xbox first party output.

On another note, I find it funny that I said what happens if Microsoft threatens or openly considers pulling out of the UK and I got dog piled on....now it seems like they are doing it...this deal is more important to them than the UK market and Microsoft is more important to the entire UK business structure and MS knows it.

This is heating up yet again.
There’s some numbers out there comparing overall MS revenue in the UK vs revenue brought by the deal. It’s not as clear cut as I thought some days ago. Its clear that the political downfall would be immense and the potential damage to the UK economy is huge, so at the end they would negotiate. This will be solved as everything else is solved in life: with money.
 

Three

Member
On another note, I find it funny that I said what happens if Microsoft threatens or openly considers pulling out of the UK and I got dog piled on....now it seems like they are doing it...this deal is more important to them than the UK market and Microsoft is more important to the entire UK business structure and MS knows it.

This is heating up yet again.
Where are you getting this fan fiction from. Senjitsusage on twitter?
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
I hate that outright console warriors like you keep pointing out the contracts Microsoft fulfilled post-acquisition. But completely ignoring the fact that Zenimax, whose major franchises and AAA titles, which previously were consistently multiplatform releases, will most likely be kept from the PS community in the future. And with that, it's simply a fact that Microsoft was a gigantic lie with the pompous "Our aim is not to take games away from gamers". Because saying "We didn't take anything away, you can now just buy a new console and the game pass" is not an adequate substitute.

The argument that Starfield and Redfall were never officially announced for the PS5, meaning nothing was taken away, is also one of those narrow-minded lies that console warriors propagate. We all know that titles like this would have been released 100% for the PS5 if MS hadn't put a stop to them. And now I'm curious to see how it will look with the upcoming parts of Elder Scrolls or Wolfenstein - here MS can then prove again that all their pre-acquisition blah-blah was nonsense.
Microsoft bought zenimax, I wouldn't expect any title that any company bought to come out on other platforms. With MS there's a high chance it will come out on PC and will come out on ps5 if it makes sense to them.
Where are you getting this fan fiction from. Senjitsusage on twitter?
I've seen some comments online that they have leaked a kind of potential threat to the CMA that they would consider pulling out of the UK market if they don't pass it. I have no idea if that's true or crazy rumours again.
 

GHG

Gold Member
On another note, I find it funny that I said what happens if Microsoft threatens or openly considers pulling out of the UK and I got dog piled on....now it seems like they are doing it...this deal is more important to them than the UK market and Microsoft is more important to the entire UK business structure and MS knows it.

I'd be interested in reading a source on this and the rationale behind it.

Edit:

I've seen some comments online that they have leaked a kind of potential threat to the CMA that they would consider pulling out of the UK market if they don't pass it. I have no idea if that's true or crazy rumours again.

Ok, where?
 
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Three

Member
I've seen some comments online that they have leaked a kind of potential threat to the CMA that they would consider pulling out of the UK market if they don't pass it. I have no idea if that's true or crazy rumours again.
Where online and what leaked exactly?
 

Gamezone

Gold Member
Can you explain to me why you think this deal is good for you as a gamer or the industry at large?

Wouldn’t it be better for a hugely successful company to stay wholly independent while some of that cash Microsoft had be deployed towards growing existing studios and forming new ones so that the industry gets more games to play overall?

- Steam
- Gamepass
- GeForce NOW
- Xbox Cloud Service

These things sure as he'll won't happen otherwise. They'll just be stuck with the Bnet launcher.
 

X-Wing

Member
What about your amazing gaming pc you guys (you especially I think) have said you all had to play all xbox exclusives on for years now? That makes you more of a console warrior than me then. You're complaining about games you don't even care enough about to get the platform to play them on? Who does that? Really who does that? And Xbox fans like me couldn't give two shits what you do because you don't matter. The market will decide and people will just get the games and Game Pass will significantly lower the barriers to enter.

Millions will do -- and are already doing -- what you won't because, contrary to fanboy beliefs on both sides, there are more real gamers out there than console warriors. We just want great games no matter what platform they're on. Hell, you don't even need to get an Xbox or PC. You can stream Starfield and Elder Scrolls 6 if you wish on Geforce Now or Game Pass in a number of ways through a variety of devices.

You call me a console warrior, and yet you can see I'm one of the biggest defenders of games like Forspoken anywhere. When I call myself a gamer, I walk the walk. I wasn't shitting on Returnal and dismissing its potential the way some were on here before it launched to great reviews, and I stayed positive about Forspoken all the way through, only poking fun at the fanboys who only cared about it because of the initial trailer that showed fancy graphics and because it was a console warrior talking about against Xbox. Anyway, I'm finished with you cause I don't even believe in discussing games with people mad about games that they themselves acknowledge they don't care about enough to play.

Cringe
 

aries_71

Junior Member
One question: is it allowed to bring an ERA post, crediting the OP, so it can be discussed here? Or would it be considered no-go?
 

Ozriel

M$FT
If more people play so more MTX was better for COD then they would have just made it f2p.

Congrats. You’ve just discovered Warzone and COD Mobile in 2023. Better late than never.

In all seriousness, they’re unlikely to go that route since they’re already having the best of both worlds. Premium pricing up front, and then MTX sale for the GaaS MP component.
 

Three

Member
Congrats. You’ve just discovered Warzone and COD Mobile in 2023. Better late than never.

In all seriousness, they’re unlikely to go that route since they’re already having the best of both worlds. Premium pricing up front, and then MTX sale for the GaaS MP component.
Exactly, they have the player and mtx revenue with those. So how would it help COD the premium product to have more players with more mtx revenue at the cost of sales? If anything it might mean they skimp on the single player campaign and concentrate on the GaaS component. Where have you heard that before?
 
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aries_71

Junior Member
As previously mentioned, I found these numbers from a post at Era. Original poster is KodiakGTS. The scenario is very unlikely but numbers give perspective.
91yNKfR.jpg
 

Three

Member
As previously mentioned, I found these numbers from a post at Era. Original poster is KodiakGTS. The scenario is very unlikely but numbers give perspective.
91yNKfR.jpg
So the source is some random who even says no way it would realistically happen? Comparing their expenditure on the acquisition to their net revenue also isn't being financially sound. Lets lose money and hamper our ability to make it back because what we're destined to lose per year is 12x lower than what we've lost!
 
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aries_71

Junior Member
So the source is some random who even says no way it would realistically happen? Comparing their expenditure on the acquisition to their net revenue also isn't being financially sound. Lets lose money and hamper our ability to make it back because what we're destined to lose per year is 12x lower than what we've lost!
Agreed, but at least the numbers really give perspective on the huge size of the operation.
 

Three

Member
Agreed, but at least the numbers really give perspective on the huge size of the operation.
Its a huge investment but the numbers actually work against the idea. You don't spend $70B to reduce your revenue by $5B per year. You do it to increase it. Spending $140B on an acquisition doesn't make it twice as likely you would say goodbye to that revenue since thats a deal 24x it. If anything you would be trying to raise revenue whereever you can to make it worth that investment in as short a time as possible.

Activison makes around $7B revenue per year. now imagine you take $5B + whatever percentage of that $7B that's attributed to the UK off of that. That might make your revenue increase from the acquisition somewhere around $1B, meaning it might take 70 years for you to see a ROI in revenue alone.
 
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As previously mentioned, I found these numbers from a post at Era. Original poster is KodiakGTS. The scenario is very unlikely but numbers give perspective.
91yNKfR.jpg

That's an interesting theory. I don't think they would abandon the market nor they would threaten regulators with that. I don't believe they would threaten them because that would send a message to the others approving the deal which I don't think they want.

Realistically they would probably make some pretty serious concessions to the CMA if they want this deal approved. It doesn't have to include a divestment but unfortunately it's one of the things the CMA wants from them unless they can provide a solution that's equivalent to that.
 
How many of those 25 million are just trying it out for a $1? Or converted up to 3 years of xbl gold for a $1, giving a price equivalent of $5 per month or less?


b8f09F5.jpg

https://www.pcworld.com/article/397667/get-3-years-xbox-game-pass-ultimate-tip.html

Out of the minority that knows this trick, most of the subscribers pay on a monthly or yearly basis.

You would be surprised by the fact that out of gaming forums like this, few people know about it unless told by someone that knows it
 

ToadMan

Member
If Reuters' people already knew the outcome of EU's ongoing study, then we wouldn't be waiting another 2 months for the result.
It doesn't make sense and I call bullshit on this (like all the other "this is easily going to pass" predictions from journalists we've seen in the past year).

You have to remember there is a lot of money tied up in Acti stock on the assumption it’ll get to $93 or whatever the price was.

Now its stuck in the $70s.

Good news stories pump the price now - some can get out t water, others limit losses.

If the original deal ends up back in the hands of ABK and MS to go back to shareholders, or just totally shelved the stock reverts back down to where it should be, and it’ll be plebs left holding the bags as usual. The guys doing the leaking now will be long gone.


  • Games will be added to Game Pass day 1

Doesn’t require acquisition.

  • Developers can properly unionize
  • Developers will have better working conditions, which hopefully results in better games

Debatable but regardless, not a consideration for regulators.

So zero positives of consequence…
 
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X-Wing

Member
I can't believe people actually think Microsoft would pull out of the UK. :messenger_tears_of_joy:
They were caught up paying bribes to increase their presence in much smaller countries, but sure they will pull out of the UK.
 
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feynoob

Gold Member
How many of those 25 million are just trying it out for a $1? Or converted up to 3 years of xbl gold for a $1, giving a price equivalent of $5 per month or less?


b8f09F5.jpg

https://www.pcworld.com/article/397667/get-3-years-xbox-game-pass-ultimate-tip.html
The amount of weed that you take everyday, because most people have no clue about that 3 year trick.

And those 1$ expires fast, which you are forced to pay 15$ after that.

It's ironic that you don't the limitations of that 1$.

I guess it's easy to make those false claims.
 

X-Wing

Member
You have to remember there is a lot of money tied up in Acti stock on the assumption it’ll get to $93 or whatever the price was.

Now its stuck in the $70s.

Good news stories pump the price now - some can get out t water, others limit losses.

If the original deal ends up back in the hands of ABK and MS to go back to shareholders, or just totally shelved the stock reverts back down to where it should be, and it’ll be plebs left holding the bags as usual. The guys doing the leaking now will be long gone.




Doesn’t require acquisition.



Debatable but regardless, not a consideration for regulators.

So zero positives of consequence…

And also doesn't require acquisition.
 
The amount of weed that you take everyday, because most people have no clue about that 3 year trick.

And those 1$ expires fast, which you are forced to pay 15$ after that.

It's ironic that you don't the limitations of that 1$.

I guess it's easy to make those false claims.
Well, you can wait for the GPU subscription to expire and then do the trick once again, but as I stated before, how many people out of forums like GAF knows about this?
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Well, you can wait for the GPU subscription to expire and then do the trick once again, but as I stated before, how many people out of forums like GAF knows about this?
Not that many.
Also the process of doing that trick is not easy.

You have to be out of gamepass for 4 months. Buy 3 years of Xbox live gold card. Apply those first, then use the 1$ gamepass promotion.

If you do gamepass promotion first, then you are only getting 1 year gamepass Ultimate due to the conversion rate which is 1 year gold= 4 month ultimate.
 

ToadMan

Member
The amount of weed that you take everyday, because most people have no clue about that 3 year trick.

And those 1$ expires fast, which you are forced to pay 15$ after that.

It's ironic that you don't the limitations of that 1$.

I guess it's easy to make those false claims.

What? The $1 deal lasts 3 years…

Also GP is free with chips these days…
https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2022/10/03/doritos-rockstar-xbox-game-ultimate-partnership/

No one is paying full price for it. If you can’t find the obvious discounts, you’re certainly unable to know how to even sign up for GP in the first place. In fact I’d doubt you have a credit card…
 
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