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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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  • Poll closed .
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They’ve already suggested acceptable resolutions.

I don’t view the CMA’s handling of Microsoft (or any company) as brutal punishment. They’ve made their recommendations, it’s now up to Microsoft to either comply, come up with alternatives that equally address the concerns, or ignore it completely.
It's not like that was carved on a stone tablet brought down from Mount Sinai... The first words are even 'at this stage' suggesting moving past that stage is an option, no?

People are putting way too much faith, hope and charity into the CMA here. Especially when they have already agreed to a stay of litigation. If you need a clearer indicator than that that things have changed I don't know what to tell you. Not even close to this level (pretty much no one is) but I spend way more of my life than I ever hoped to dealing with lawyers in litigation, mediation and negotiation and nothing is ever set in stone in the business world - nothing.
 
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Schmick

Member
It shouldn't have to be like that.

As judge Corley said, "all this for one videogame?". The same people that were celebrating her quips a couple of weeks ago should abide by them going forwards regardless of the outcome.
You are absolutely right, but unfortunately there are some mentally unstable people out there who will struggle to comprehend an outcome where MS doesn't get ABK.
 
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jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
YU2vJyw.jpg

They’ve already suggested acceptable resolutions.

I don’t view the CMA’s handling of Microsoft (or any company) as brutal punishment. They’ve made their recommendations, it’s now up to Microsoft to either comply, come up with alternatives that equally address the concerns, or ignore it completely.
I do find it fascinating that some ppl look at as MS being unfairly treated...when every business that tries an acquisition has to deal with this.

...didnt MS just acquire Bethesda with barely a peep from regulators....including the CMA...

:pie_thinking:

Hell, at one point it looked like Sony wasnt gonna get Crunchyroll.
 
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AJUMP23

Gold Member
I think, dont crucify me, Activivsion stock gets delisted if MS buys them out. You either get a payout of what the stock is worth at sale or you can convert the shares, I think, into MS shares.
I know that is what the deal states. I should probably cash out now. But I was just wishful thinking.
 
With all due respect, you're kidding yourself a bit there. The lawyers have been talking the whole time about what would be an acceptable resolution - it happens in every case, with far less able lawyers than are involved here. The idea of the CMA brutally punishing Microsoft whatever happens is a pipe dream. They are just too powerful and important to the economy to make a legit enemy out of - even for a country.

Don't be surprised if the order not to close or invest is withdrawn before the 18th, just in time, or that approval is given with conditions.
The CMA have IMO too much power and IMO the block is unfair but it stands.
I honestly wouldn't do that. The negative repercussions are far greater.

The CMA can fine companies up to 10% of the global turnover. Microsoft could be penalized up to $6.9 billion. That's what at risk here.

I'd instead focus on ensuring that ABK is in this with me at least until August 29 and sweeten the deal for them to incentivize the extension, if needed. Then focus on working with the CMA to arrive at an acceptable compromise to get the deal through.
It's alot of money but not to Microsoft and they'd make considerably more by closing the deal anyway, if you're looking at it as purely on a financial basis. I can't imagine they would close without the CMA but then again they have to fork out 3 billion to Activision if it doesn't close.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Makes no sense, but if that's what they are calling it then CMA just flat-out caved. Dat "political pressure" @Riky talked about.

Awkward John Krasinski GIF by Saturday Night Live


And so this is why MS wasn't worried about CMA any longer as HeisenbergFX4 HeisenbergFX4 said. They already agreed on this prior to the FTC ruling. CMA has been lying the whole time about this possibly leading to a new investigation, if this happens.

New info....CMA hasn't agreed to anything.


And you got golded for that post too.
Season 2 Lol GIF by Insecure on HBO


So even Microsoft thinks Starfield and the Indiana Jones game could both sell 10 million copies on the PS5 by itself and still decided to make them exclusive......





This is insanity. If this deal goes through COD won't be on the PS6. MS just straight up don't care about losing money.

Money GIF
 
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DrSammyD

Neo Member
Regarding the judge's use of the word "may" vs "will". Hoeg weighed in....



Below is the paragraph in question since he only quoted a single sentence. So I don't think this will fly in the appeals court. Also, Judge Corley emphasized the word "substantially" which is the crux of she is saying, that the FTC has not shown that the acquisition "will probably substantially" lessen competition. But the paragraph below also says that a "certainty, even a high probability, need not be shown".

And this paragraph strikes me as damn familiar....

"The theory of competition and monopoly that has been used to given concrete meaning to section 7 teaches that an acquisition which reduces the number of significant sellers in a market already highly concentrated and prone to collusion by reason of its history and circumstances is unlawful in the absence of special circumstances. "

Section 7 forbids mergers and other acquisitions the effect of which "may" be to lessen competition substantially. A certainty, even a high probability, need not be shown. Of course the word "may" should not be taken literally, for if it were, every acquisition would be unlawful. But the statute requires a prediction, and doubts are to be resolved against the transaction. See, e.g., United States v. Philadelphia National Bank, 374 U.S. 321, 362-63, 83 S.Ct. 1715, 1740-41, 10 L.Ed.2d 915 (1963); United States v. Falstaff Brewing Corp., 410 U.S. 526, 555-58, 93 S.Ct. 1096, 1112-14, 35 L.Ed.2d 475 (1973). The theory of competition and monopoly that has been used to given concrete meaning to section 7 teaches that an acquisition which reduces the number of significant sellers in a market already highly concentrated and prone to collusion by reason of its history and circumstances is unlawful in the absence of special circumstances. See, e.g., Hospital Corp. of America v. FTC, 807 F.2d 1381, 1389 (7th Cir. 1986).

Look at the Falstaff decision. It’s even more explicit. The reduction in competition Hass to be probable.
“As we stated in Brown Shoe Co. v. United States, 370 U.S. 294, 323 (1962): "Congress used the words `may be substantially to lessen competition' (emphasis supplied), to indicate that its concern was with probabilities, not certainties. Statutes existed for dealing with clear-cut menaces to competition; no statute was sought for dealing with ephemeral possibilities. Mergers with a probable anticompetitive effect were to be proscribed by this Act”
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Pretty easy math. If Starfield being exclusive increases Gamepass subscriptions or converts people to the Xbox ecosystem at say 1 million new users, and BGS doesn't release a new game (lets say Elder Scrolls 6) for 5 years, the LTV (life time value) of the new users over those 5 years would offset the 10M lost sales on Playstation.

If 10M lost sales on Playstation really is the projected numbers for Starfield, a 70% cut of a $70 game is $49, so $490M lost sales by making Starfield exclusive. If the yearly LTV of a new customer exceeds $100, it would take less than a million new Xbox/Gamepass customers to make up the $490M in loss sales over the 5 years until a new BGS game is released.

That's assuming those 1 million "NEW" users stay on GP for 5 full years and never jump off. That also assumes that games like Starfield would never release add-on content or any MTX during the life of the game. Which I don't see happening.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Dave Chappelle Gotcha GIF


Wait so Ginzeen GAF account created on... June 20 2023, has only ever posted in the merger thread (and has posted a hell of a lot for a new member)

KingOfTheDead (same avatar, exact same writing style) accounted created on.. July 3 3023, has only ever posted in the merger thread (and has posted a lot)

He's literally spamming the same soundbytes between GAF and Icon-Era:

doRfPxv.jpg
c5Qg5aS.jpg
Detective Gaf was always best Gaf :pie_roffles::messenger_ok:
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
The judge also said "consoles are dying, and there won't be any consoles in the future, and all games will move to Cloud" but then also surmised that this acquisition does not harm the future cloud gaming market 😄

The FTC can bring that up in their appeal.

I for the life of me still can't understand how the judge can say this and still not at least do a P.I. If consoles die in the future, it wouldn't be because gamers chose that. It'll be because corporations like MS forced it down our throats.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Dave Chappelle Gotcha GIF


Wait so Ginzeen GAF account created on... June 20 2023, has only ever posted in the merger thread (and has posted a hell of a lot for a new member)

KingOfTheDead (same avatar, exact same writing style) accounted created on.. July 3 3023, has only ever posted in the merger thread (and has posted a lot)

He's literally spamming the same soundbytes between GAF and Icon-Era:

doRfPxv.jpg
c5Qg5aS.jpg

Oops.

sXwIg4p.png
 
Imagine Microsoft proceeding despite the CMA. It would be one of the biggest downgrades the UK has experienced since they lost WWII :p

edit: just to preempt any acksuallys, I know the UK were on the side of the Allies. I hope I didnt just ruin my own joke.
 
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Bernardougf

Gold Member




They kinda did.
Saying you are committed to something is not swearing you will do something ... words are really important when you bind them to "oaths" .. he can be committed and at the same time dont achieve .. i canbe committed to buy a ferrari.. if i will be able to is another history my friend
 

Pelta88

Member
Some of you people need GHG GHG in your life to explain what is going on with ATVI's stock listing. Some have zero market understanding to the point where they believe, ATVI wont be available on monday. Zero understand of the procedure so, in their minds, ATVI has been removed from the market because Microsoft said so.

Shit is hilarious and kinda pitiful.

Preach to the uninformed GHG GHG Preach!
 
I for the life of me still can't understand how the judge can say this and still not at least do a P.I. If consoles die in the future, it wouldn't be because gamers chose that. It'll be because corporations like MS forced it down our throats.
Microsoft create their own consoles so you're reasoning is illogical at least in the current market, with the amount of time in R&D these consoles take its unlikely to be in the immediate future either.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
It's not like that was carved on a stone tablet brought down from Mount Sinai... The first words are even 'at this stage' suggesting moving past that stage is an option, no?
I understand that.

They’ve made their recommendations, it’s now up to Microsoft to either comply, come up with alternatives that equally address the concerns
People are putting way too much faith, hope and charity into the CMA here. Especially when they have already agreed to a stay of litigation. If you need a clearer indicator then that that things have changed I don't know what to tell you.

They’ve explained publicly what the terms are.
 

GHG

Gold Member
Some of you people need GHG GHG in your life to explain what is going on with ATVI's stock listing. Some have zero market understanding to the point where they believe, ATVI wont be available on monday. Zero understand of the procedure so, in their minds, ATVI has been removed from the market because Microsoft said so.

Shit is hilarious and kinda pitiful.

Preach to the uninformed GHG GHG Preach!

To be honest, some of this stuff is so basic it shouldn't need explaining.

Being removed from an index isn't the same as being delisted from the market entirely. If the deal falls through and usual trading resumes for the stock then they can easily reinstate it to the Nasdaq 100. But as it stands it's of no benefit to anyone for it to remain in the index and there's the added bonus that they will have done the necessary admin amd rebalancing ahead of time in case the deal does go through.

But all in all it's fine for people to get things wrong, it's how we all learn. The issue only comes in when someone is wrong and then proceeds to be stubborn, digging their heels in despite evidence to the contrary.
 
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IFireflyl

Gold Member
We are extending it by a month but don't worry we're gonna figure this out ASAP? Why do they feel the need to mention that part if i were them i would be taking my sweet time..

They probably will take their time on this. The "we're gonna figure it out ASAP," comment is just P.R. Everyone does it. Even the CMA.
 
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Lol good lord. An index changes constantly
Just wondering, when was the last time Activision Blizzard was removed from an exchange? Just a coincidence though that it's the day before the merger deadline? How often are companies in good standing replaced unless part of a merger? How often are companies replaced by other companies with a significantly lower market cap? Just wondering what you think the reason is, if not merger related?

No one knows why the call was made - maybe it was someone at NASDAQ and they got the call wrong because they read ResetEra rather than NeoGAF for their expert opinions, but how often do you think that happens? You think they just guess? They also specifically called out that it's not part of the rebalance, when this would usually be done... They have a special rebalance on July 24th according to the press release anyway, but this couldn't wait for one week for that?

Definitely unrelated though. Can you believe these fools can even speculate there's any possibility it's related?

"The Nasdaq-100 is officially rebalanced once each year, on the 3rd Friday in December. Not surprisingly, that’s also when most new additions take place (Chart 3). However, index changes can happen during the year if a company is acquired or if securities fail the ‘Continued Eligibility Criteria,’ which includes becoming too small during the year. Historically around 10% of the companies rotate out of the Nasdaq-100 each year (although usually, these are the smaller companies, so the impact on turnover is lower)."
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
That's assuming those 1 million "NEW" users stay on GP for 5 full years and never jump off. That also assumes that games like Starfield would never release add-on content or any MTX during the life of the game. Which I don't see happening.
It also assumes that the new users only spend $100 the entire year.

The problem is we don't have the numbers on how many consoles Starfield will sell, how many new GP subscribers are gained because of Starfield, what the GP retention rate will be, what the true average LTV will be, when Bethesda Game Studios next game will be released. Could be 5 years, could be 6 or 7. The more years between releases the less new customers would have to spend per year to make up the lost sales on Playstation.
 

gothmog

Gold Member
Some of you people need GHG GHG in your life to explain what is going on with ATVI's stock listing. Some have zero market understanding to the point where they believe, ATVI wont be available on monday. Zero understand of the procedure so, in their minds, ATVI has been removed from the market because Microsoft said so.

Shit is hilarious and kinda pitiful.

Preach to the uninformed GHG GHG Preach!
Most people are being willfully ignorant as part of their whole arguing in bad faith policy when trolling these threads.
 

Gudji

Member
To be honest, some of this stuff is so basic it shouldn't need explaining.

Being removed from an index isn't the same as being delisted from the market entirely. If the deal falls through and usual trading resumes for the stock then they can easily reinstate it to the Nasdaq 100. But as it stands it's of no benefit to anyone for it to remain in the index and there's the added bonus that they will have done the necessary admin amd rebalancing ahead of time in case the deal does go through.
Wouldn't nasdaq announce AB being delisted like a couple of hours before opening or something like that?
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Im out of the loop currently. Is the appeal going through?

I can't see how anyone would think this acquisition passing is beneficial to gamers at all. Limiting player choice is never good.
Appeal has not been decided on yet.

More than likely MS/ABK agreed upon an extension addendum to draw up a new deal with conditions / divestment that they hope will satisfy the CMA which extended the deadline to August 28th.
 
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Just wondering, when was the last time Activision Blizzard was removed from an exchange? Just a coincidence though that it's the day before the merger deadline? How often are companies in good standing replaced unless part of a merger? How often are companies replaced by other companies with a significantly lower market cap? Just wondering what you think the reason is, if not merger related?

No one knows why the call was made - maybe it was someone at NASDAQ and they got the call wrong because they read ResetEra rather than NeoGAF for their expert opinions, but how often do you think that happens? You think they just guess? They also specifically called out that it's not part of the rebalance, when this would usually be done... They have a special rebalance on July 24th according to the press release anyway, but this couldn't wait for one week for that?

Definitely unrelated though. Can you believe these fools can even speculate there's any possibility it's related?

"The Nasdaq-100 is officially rebalanced once each year, on the 3rd Friday in December. Not surprisingly, that’s also when most new additions take place (Chart 3). However, index changes can happen during the year if a company is acquired or if securities fail the ‘Continued Eligibility Criteria,’ which includes becoming too small during the year. Historically around 10% of the companies rotate out of the Nasdaq-100 each year (although usually, these are the smaller companies, so the impact on turnover is lower)."

I think you need to stop looking for fire when there's no smoke
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Some of you people need GHG GHG in your life to explain what is going on with ATVI's stock listing. Some have zero market understanding to the point where they believe, ATVI wont be available on monday. Zero understand of the procedure so, in their minds, ATVI has been removed from the market because Microsoft said so.

Shit is hilarious and kinda pitiful.

Preach to the uninformed GHG GHG Preach!
But before you do that, for fuck's sake, GHG GHG , please change your Avatar! 😑 😛
 

Mega_Deth

Member
Appeal has not been decided on yet.

More than likely MS/ABK agreed upon an extension addendum to draw up a new deal with conditions / divestment that they hope will satisfy the CMA which extended the deadline to August 28th.

Thanks for the update. Does this mean the FTC also have til August 28th to appeal?
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Thanks for the update. Does this mean the FTC also have til August 28th to appeal?
Appeal process has already started, it all depends on when the 9th circuit decides to make a decision.

P.S. Don't listen to their media shills, they've been obfuscating and misleading based on fanatic emotion pipering.

Going forward, listed to what comes out of the appeal decision and the CMA themselves.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
We are extending it by a month but don't worry we're gonna figure this out ASAP? Why do they feel the need to mention that part if i were them i would be taking my sweet time..
According to the law, they can extend by 6 weeks. The CMA expects to announce the decision before that.

I think it also shows that the CMA is not being unreasonable (which may help them later if the case again goes to CAT).
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Appeal process has already started, it all depends on when the 9th circuit decides to make a decision.

P.S. Don't listen to their media shills, they've been obfuscating and misleading based on fanatic emotion pipering.

Going forward, listed to what comes out of the appeal decision and the CMA themselves.
At this point, it's fine even if the 9th circuit rejects FTC's appeal.

The CMA has pushed it to Aug. 29. By that time, FTC's court case would have started. FTC just needs to stay firm until that.
 

havoc00

Member
Appeal process has already started, it all depends on when the 9th circuit decides to make a decision.

P.S. Don't listen to their media shills, they've been obfuscating and misleading based on fanatic emotion pipering.

Going forward, listed to what comes out of the appeal decision and the CMA themselves.
Is there a timetable for the 9ths decision? Could it come any day or are we talking at least weeks?
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
At this point, it's fine even if the 9th circuit rejects FTC's appeal.

The CMA has pushed it to Aug. 29. By that time, FTC's court case would have started. FTC just needs to stay firm until that.
If they reject the appeal, it's fine due to the CMA, but not for established case law. The judge had way too many errors rushing it out, which she admitted to herself prior.
 
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