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[Vanillalite]

I'd still need a compelling reason to get on board early with the 720/loop/whatever since unlike last go round even with the Wii-U being under powered compared to the 720/PS4 it's design will allow an easier work flow for devs to get games running on all 3 systems.

So I'm wondering what content does MS have to really offer me that would be exclusive to the system other than Halo/Forza and the Kinect stuff? Live's a double edge sword too in that it's the best online setup, but at a yearly cost.

Unlike the Wii where games weren't in the same generation as the current "hd" consoles Wii-U games should be at least in the realm. So my initial choices (going on the assumption Sony is holding out for a while longer) are the 720 with better graphics to an extent coupled with better online with probably a higher price point + pay for online/features verses a Wii-U with worse graphics yet still HD this time coupled with a cheaper price point + free yet wild wild west/ghetto online + Nintendo developed games. Assuming Nintendo can get an online structure up that's closer to say PSN would the 720 be worth it over the Wii-U for the improved graphics + stream lined online if it's going to cost more initially for the system + per year for online?

The PS4 would sort of straddle between those two having a lot of the good bits from both sides of that coin, but I feel that'll be the last to launch so you'll be waiting a while.

I'm not trying to troll with this either. I've been honestly pondering this for the past few days.

 

[Davidion]

Maybe, maybe not. The fact is though that it's the most desirable market. It's the market that leads to mass consumer appeal. The hardcore are easy as shit to please in comparison. Just because this is difficult market to tie down doesn't mean MS shouldn't give them a good amount of attention. This is also the market that's crucial to becoming the definitive living room device. It's MS's great white buffalo.

Yeah, we've had this conversation before and this is ultimately the root of our difference in opinion. I really do think both the hardcore and the casual can be satisfied at the same time. I believe MS is doing that right now with the 360, and I think it's possible to do so from the very start of a console's lifecycle. You say casuals are a risky bet? They also give you the biggest payoff. Also, I strongly disagree that MS doesn't have a loyal fanbase. While I don't think it's going to be the be all end all determining factor in console purchases (and have even argued to the contrary), I do believe that xboxlive has made a huge impact on gamer consciousness this gen.

To tie into that other thread about which company is in the best position to enter next gen, I think this is why MS has the best hand going in. They've dominated the market in the bookends of this generation thus far with a strong performance throughout, and have managed to capture a strong "core" gamer base at the beginning and the mindshare of the casuals now near the end (relative within the context of the big 3). This is a huge market advantage that I really don't think either of its competitors have in full.

There's still time for drastic shifts to occur by the time the next console iterations come out; doesn't seem like there's much time left, though.

 

[specialguy]

On B3D some still think this rumor refers to a slim 360 chip and the rumormonger is getting his wires crossed.

I tend to agree. Simply because 500+mm^2 SOC's are unheard of, and very unlikely you'd go with such a huge, complex, dangerous chip to start a generation.

 

[duk]

it makes sense that beta versions of 720's dev kits should be starting to ship now. i mean we only have realistically 1.5 years left til the first games. if 360 beta dev kits (R420) was anything was to go by, then these kits aren't really the final power either.

 

[whitehawk]

were xbox games pushed to 360 with 720p @ 60 fps?

Amped 3
Call of Duty 2
Condemned: Criminal Origins
FIFA 06: Road to FIFA World Cup
Gun
Kameo: Elements of Power
Madden NFL
NBA 2K6
NBA Live 06
Need for Speed: Most Wanted
NHL 2K6
Perfect Dark Zero
Peter Jackson's King Kong: The Official Game of the Movie
Project Gotham Racing 3
Quake 4
Ridge Racer 6
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 06
Tony Hawk's American Wasteland

I don't think it was as bad as you think. AFAIK, the bolded titles were console ports or PC ports. For example I have Tony Hawk AW, and I know for a fact it was just the XBox game bumped up to 720p. They were so lazy that the menus that are in 2D are stretched lol. Everything that isn't 3D is stretched.

 

[Proelite]

On B3D some still think this rumor refers to a slim 360 chip and the rumormonger is getting his wires crossed.

I tend to agree. Simply because 500+mm^2 SOC's are unheard of, and very unlikely you'd go with such a huge, complex, dangerous chip to start a generation.

That someone, with only 8 posts, is a known troll on other forums.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

On B3D some still think this rumor refers to a slim 360 chip and the rumormonger is getting his wires crossed.

I tend to agree. Simply because 500+mm^2 SOC's are unheard of, and very unlikely you'd go with such a huge, complex, dangerous chip to start a generation.

I've never put much stock in it myself.

I always figured on some variant of a relatively new chip. Something based on 2011 tech, with so many alterations as to be new.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

But what if you downclocked it from 925 to 800? What about 750? 700?

Which will be the case, console GPU's are always downclocked to save power. There were 650 mhz 7800's in PC world in 2006, but the 7800 in PS3 (RSX) was clocked at 500.

Also as I've posted before, 7970 power figures include much of the same things as a console, a circuit board, various outputs, and in 7970's case 3GB of RAM. About all you're missing is an optical drive and a CPU.

If you're cutting down the clock speed that much then you're getting close to 7750 territory. Why pay for the more expensive chip when you can just use cheaper one and get similar performance.

Also as I pointed out in the SAME exact post you quoted, ram accounts for 5 - 10 watts or so, and the board doesn't use all that much wattage either. Though you're not just missing an optical drive and a CPU. You're missing a USB controller chip, a Sata controller chip, wireless radio, wireless and possibly ethernet chips, bluetooth, possibly a memory controller, HDD, you know just to name a few things.

MS is not waiting till 2014 to release their system. It is not going to have an HD8000, or HD9000 based chip in it.

 

[specialguy]

That someone, with only 8 posts, is a known troll on other forums.

It's several people...

I think it just makes sense and have been thinking it for several iteration's of charlie's oban rumors.

If it does turn out to be a slim 360, will be funny to see Charlie's explanation/backpedaling/excuses.

MS is not waiting till 2014 to release their system. It is not going to have an HD8000, or HD9000 based chip in it.

Nobody here knows when they will release it. I've been saying with just as much certainty Xbox is not coming in 2012, even though it seems most of GAF in next gen threads treated it as fact (though I think people are beginning to realize it's not happening after CES).

I think 2014 is very possible, sadly. For example CliffyB, who of all people would know, said in an interview about next gen "expect something cool around 2014".

The thing is I think I use the best available evidence for my conclusions. It's pretty obviously not coming in 2012 because there's lots of evidence it's not, from Halo 4 to the lack of concrete games leaks. So that leaves 2013 or 14. As of right now I put it like, maybe 60-40 in favor of 2013.

And actually, a HD 8000 is very possible. You saying otherwise just proves you dont know what you're talking about. Lets say it launches in 2013, HD7000 came in late Dec 11. It was about a year after HD 6000. Using the same timeline HD8000 will hit in late 12 early 13. If anything, that's almost too early for a fall 13 console release.

In Xenos case, MS REALLY pushed it, Xenos wasn't ready till the last second, and used some of AMD's most advanced tech that wasn't even available in their desktop line yet. Basically the equivilant of going with HD9000 in fall 2013 console launch, perhaps. If it's fall 2014, then who even knows.

 

[duk]

It's several people...

I think it just makes sense and have been thinking it for several iteration's of charlie's oban rumors.

If it does turn out to be a slim 360, will be funny to see Charlie's explanation/backpedaling/excuses.



Nobody here knows when they will release it. I've been saying with just as much certainty Xbox is not coming in 2012, even though it seems most of GAF in next gen threads treated it as fact (though I think people are beginning to realize it's not happening after CES).

I think 2014 is very possible, sadly. For example CliffyB, who of all people would know, said in an interview about next gen "expect something cool around 2014".

The thing is I think I use the best available evidence for my conclusions. It's pretty obviously not coming in 2012 because there's lots of evidence it's not, from Halo 4 to the lack of concrete games leaks. So that leaves 2013 or 14. As of right now I put it like, maybe 60-40 in favor of 2013.

MS isn't going to put THAT much effort in a 360+ at this point the way things are selling.

It's time to move fwd on next gen.

 

[specialguy]

MS isn't going to put THAT much effort in a 360+ at this point the way things are selling.

It's time to move fwd on next gen.

Couldn't disagree more think about it makes perfect sense. This would likely be the last iteration of 360. It could be an "extra extra" slim 360. 32nm and everything on one SOC for ultimate cost reduction. It paves the way probably for eventually, after Xbox next is out, hitting $99 with the low end SKU. 360 will be like PS2, it will have some life for probably, upwards of 5 years, well after it's succesor. You bet your ass they're going to cost reduce it, even if it has nothing to do with this oban rumor.

The way things are selling? 360 still has price drops left, and if you combine Nov and Dec, or look at 2011 as a whole, etc, it's still on an upward trajectory. Regardless that even when it does inevitably start sloping downward, there will be probably tens of millions of sales left in it and it's well worth cost reducing.

One thing that fits with this is talk of spring 2013 and the like for oban from charlie. I dont see MS ever introducing a new console anytime but fall, but something like a redesign can hit in spring or fall, they wont care. It also fits with the idea these things are planned years in advance, which of course product roadmaps are.

 

[TAJ]

I think 2014 is very possible, sadly. For example CliffyB, who of all people would know, said in an interview about next gen "expect something cool around 2014".

Maybe he meant that's when Epic would have a game out for new consoles.

 

[guek]

Couldn't disagree more think about it makes perfect sense. This would likely be the last iteration of 360. It could be an "extra extra" slim 360. 32nm and everything on one SOC for ultimate cost reduction. It paves the way probably for eventually, after Xbox next is out, hitting $99 with the low end SKU. 360 will be like PS2, it will have some life for probably, upwards of 5 years, well after it's succesor. You bet your ass they're going to cost reduce it, even if it has nothing to do with this oban rumor.

The way things are selling? 360 still has price drops left, and if you combine Nov and Dec, or look at 2011 as a whole, etc, it's still on an upward trajectory. Regardless that even when it does inevitably start sloping downward, there will be probably tens of millions of sales left in it and it's well worth cost reducing.

If the Wii U wasn't coming out, perhaps. But the 360 doesn't exist in a vacuum. MS supposedly doesn't take nintendo seriously, but that could potentially be a huge mistake. The 360 is big now, but what if the Wii U becomes the new hotness? I know a lot of people are pessimistic about it, but it's possible. Hell, after what the Wii did to this industry, I think it's very possible. The 360 might have 1 year of guaranteed strong sales in it left and then it might get completely eclipsed if the Wii U is anywhere near as popular as its predecessor.

 

[bgassassin]

I think 2014 is very possible, sadly. For example CliffyB, who of all people would know, said in an interview about next gen "expect something cool around 2014".

That's most likely dealing with UE4 as 2014 is when Tim Sweeney was projecting it to be revealed and/or released.

 

[Vanillalite]

If you're cutting down the clock speed that much then you're getting close to 7750 territory. Why pay for the more expensive chip when you can just use cheaper one and get similar performance.

Also as I pointed out in the SAME exact post you quoted, ram accounts for 5 - 10 watts or so, and the board doesn't use all that much wattage either. Though you're not just missing an optical drive and a CPU. You're missing a USB controller chip, a Sata controller chip, wireless radio, wireless and possibly ethernet chips, bluetooth, possibly a memory controller, HDD, you know just to name a few things.

MS is not waiting till 2014 to release their system. It is not going to have an HD8000, or HD9000 based chip in it.

I see no reason why the 8000 shouldn't be out in 2013 not 2014, and either way if MS/ATI follow what they did with the 360 they put some stuff in their older base gpus that were stuff that ended up in later mainstream desktop GPUs. So it might be a 7750 + extra feature set which could make it more akin to the 8000 series than the 7000 series.

I totally agree though with more GPU options now as compared to the past I see no reason why they'd just underclock a 7800 series when they could just use a 7750 series. There wasn't as large of a range of GPUs when the last consoles launched so this option wasn't there ergo they just underclocked.

 

[duk]

Couldn't disagree more think about it makes perfect sense. This would likely be the last iteration of 360. It could be an "extra extra" slim 360. 32nm and everything on one SOC for ultimate cost reduction. It paves the way probably for eventually, after Xbox next is out, hitting $99 with the low end SKU. 360 will be like PS2, it will have some life for probably, upwards of 5 years, well after it's succesor. You bet your ass they're going to cost reduce it, even if it has nothing to do with this oban rumor.

The way things are selling? 360 still has price drops left, and if you combine Nov and Dec, or look at 2011 as a whole, etc, it's still on an upward trajectory. Regardless that even when it does inevitably start sloping downward, there will be probably tens of millions of sales left in it and it's well worth cost reducing.

One thing that fits with this is talk of spring 2013 and the like for oban from charlie. I dont see MS ever introducing a new console anytime but fall, but something like a redesign can hit in spring or fall, they wont care. It also fits with the idea these things are planned years in advance, which of course product roadmaps are.

yeah but making just 100 chips for it? why do devs need new dev kits at 32nm? they don't need that at all.

this is why i think focus has shipped to next-gen... yes im sure die shrinks are still in works for 360 but it's not a focus area when they are still making $$$ and selling quite well

 

[les papillons sexuels]

I think when they say 7000 series I think they're talking about an parity with things like the number of texture units, the number of vertex/pixel shaders, stream processors etc. The actual core performance, the memory bandwitdth, fill rate etc. are probably going to vary depending on the architecture they deside to implement.

 

[Reallink]

If the Wii U wasn't coming out, perhaps. But the 360 doesn't exist in a vacuum. MS supposedly doesn't take nintendo seriously, but that could potentially be a huge mistake. The 360 is big now, but what if the Wii U becomes the new hotness? I know a lot of people are pessimistic about it, but it's possible. Hell, after what the Wii did to this industry, I think it's very possible. The 360 might have 1 year of guaranteed strong sales in it left and then it might get completely eclipsed if the Wii U is anywhere near as popular as its predecessor.

There is little doubt in my mind Wii U will become the new hotness if it's left unchecked (be that hype train unveils, or rushing production). I think people are grossly underestimating how much demand there is for a new console. Remember by the time Wii U launches, it will have been 6 and 7 years since the last consoles debuted. At this point, I expect even a shit line up with visuals that look like a PS360 side grade could sell gang busters. There is a hunger, and it is powerful. To not PS2 the Dreamcast would be an enormous mistake on Sony/MS's part.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Man, I wish I could just make a site and make up rumors too.

"PS4 is actually a Gundam."

I'd go with Sony is skipping the PS4 and going straight to PS5

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Was this confirmed? Honest question since Ballmer said the 360 was the best selling console WW last year at CES. The ps3 selling more WW would be quite amusing IMO after Mattrick's boasting at last year's E3.

At E3 they still though they had the potential casual juggernaut in Kinect Star Wars (and the gorgeous Star Wars bundle) for the holidays, though.

Anyway, nothing has been confirmed yet, we have to wait for Microsoft's and Sony's quarterly reports.

 

[Monty Mole]

I'd go with Sony is skipping the PS4 and going straight to PS5

Well it's unlikely to be called PS4 due to the usual Japanese reasons. It'll be interesting to see what name they come up with though, hopefully nothing like "Vita".

 

[disap.ed]

Wouldn't it be possible that this is in fact the WiiU chip? There was some speculation here that some guy that worked on the WiiU CPU switched to a 32nm SoC project and that they barely change to projects of different customers.

 

[McHuj]

Wouldn't it be possible that this is in fact the WiiU chip? There was some speculation here that some guy that worked on the WiiU CPU switched to a 32nm SoC project and that they barely change to projects of different customers.

Perhaps, but if the rumor indicates that mass production wouldn't start until late this year, WiiU wouldn't be coming out this year.

IMO, WiiU chips will have to enter mass production at least a quarter before release so if they haven't started manufacturing them yet, they will be by this summer.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

If the Wii U wasn't coming out, perhaps. But the 360 doesn't exist in a vacuum. MS supposedly doesn't take nintendo seriously, but that could potentially be a huge mistake. The 360 is big now, but what if the Wii U becomes the new hotness? I know a lot of people are pessimistic about it, but it's possible. Hell, after what the Wii did to this industry, I think it's very possible. The 360 might have 1 year of guaranteed strong sales in it left and then it might get completely eclipsed if the Wii U is anywhere near as popular as its predecessor.

I'm not sure if Nintendo can repeat history this generation. I have a funny feeling they will offer cheap hardware at the expense of not wanting to sell it at a loss. The tablet controller alone could be half the cost right there. Could anyone seriously consider Nintendo selling a console for more than $299 and if they did would people be willing to pay that much? This would leave me to believe once again it will be eclipsed by both Microsoft and Sony on a technical level which means Nintendo will ride the wave on innovation and exploiting it's 1st party games. That will only carry them so far and Sony is already adopting technology as well as Apple that can enable multiple devices to interact with one another. This seems to be the innovation Nintendo is advertising with the Wii U.

Microsoft on the other hand needs to be more marketable outside of the U.S. Both Nintendo and Sony have much better gaming brands throughout the world. Sony has also invested quite heavily in their own game studios. I am just happy all three major companies have had decent market penetration which will make the upcoming generation more interesting. Sony cannot rest on their laurels like they did with the beginning of the PS3, Nintendo knows the market is shifting to a more service online oriented area and Microsoft needs to identify itself more clearly in the direction they want to go.

 

[KageMaru]

Maybe, maybe not. The fact is though that it's the most desirable market. It's the market that leads to mass consumer appeal. The hardcore are easy as shit to please in comparison. Just because this is difficult market to tie down doesn't mean MS shouldn't give them a good amount of attention. This is also the market that's crucial to becoming the definitive living room device. It's MS's great white buffalo.

I never said MS shouldn't give them some attention, even when the 360 was still very much a hardcore box, MS made attempts to appeal to the more mainstream audience. I also agree that the great mass market is what every company is fighting for, the core market is the minority, I understand this. However the likelihood of your console appealing to this market is slim unless A) your console has a new "hook" and B) the price is worth this "hook". Yet again, I agree that this market is crucial for the living room dominance that MS and Sony are fighting for.

I really have no issue with anything you're saying here, but I don't think you need new hardware for this market we're talking about here. The mass market are rarely early adopters, tech heads, gamers, and loyalists are, so IMO it makes more sense to cater more towards them early on. MS can redesign and maybe even rename the 360 for a 3rd time to accomplish what you've been arguing about, and it would serve the same purpose.

You talk about looking at each gen specifically and then write off certain things you don't like or care for as coincidence. Nice.

I'm not writing off anything, I simply think it's purely a coincidence that the winner each gen hasn't been the strongest console, simple as that. Look at the past 2 generations:

-Sony was the new guy with the PS1, produced one of the fastest mass market 3D machines at launch with a competitive price. They had a marketing campaign that was directed to core gamers and didn't hesitate to roll out the hype machine. Through a combination of efficient hardware, good tools (compared to Ninty and Sega), and an army of 3rd party support, they stole the show. Early on they appealed to gamers and over the course of the generation, as prices dropped, they branched out into the more mass market demographics.

-The PS2 was riding high on the success of the PS1. Sony really knew how to hype their machine up: DVD, 60+ million polys per second, "emotion engine", etc. The biggest factor was the system had the market to itself for ~19 months before the GC launched in Sept. 2001. Developers had no choice but to fully devote themselves to the platform to stay in business, and in reality, it was a safe bet considering the success of the PS1. Sony cemented the PS2 in the minds of the market as the game machine to get, something that wasn't so difficult given their grasp on the development community. Again it was geared mainly towards the core demographic and as prices dropped, the potential market expanded.

In both of these scenarios, Sony could have had the strongest market of it's respective generation and history would have still repeated itself as long as Sony marketed the system as they did before. IMO Sony was the marketing master with the PS1 and PS2, no one could touch their campaigns. Unfortunately that's not really the case anymore.

No, I said specifically that this is not what I'm saying. At all. Come on man. Edit: Keep in mind nowhere did I say MS should make their next console the weakest hardware of next gen.

The DC comment was more of a sly jab honestly =p, the sad reality is that it was never any real competition to Sony at the time ;_;

I also understand that you're not saying they should make the weakest console next gen, but instead be a bit more conservative so they can market it to the more mass market early on. I understand exactly what you're saying, but I still don't agree with it. =p

Yeah, we've had this conversation before and this is ultimately the root of our difference in opinion. I really do think both the hardcore and the casual can be satisfied at the same time. I believe MS is doing that right now with the 360, and I think it's possible to do so from the very start of a console's lifecycle. You say casuals are a risky bet? They also give you the biggest payoff. Also, I strongly disagree that MS doesn't have a loyal fanbase. While I don't think it's going to be the be all end all determining factor in console purchases (and have even argued to the contrary), I do believe that xboxlive has made a huge impact on gamer consciousness this gen.

Can you tell me one leading console that has catered to both the hardcore and casual market equally within the first years with neither demographic suffering in the least? Sony marketed the PS1 and PS2 towards the core gamer early on and opened up their marketing approach when the price allowed it. Nintendo went more towards the casuals early on, which lead to all but the most loyal Ninty fans asking where the games are, why do they have to use friends codes, why no HD, etc. You think it's possible, that's fine as no one can say your opinion is wrong, but history has proven otherwise.

Also looking at this last paragraph, I can't agree that the casuals give the biggest payoff. They are the buyers who will buy one maybe two games a year if you're lucky where a core gamer will buy multiple games throughout the year. Sure the casual market can be very profitable if your hardware is also profitable, but I don't see that being the case for the next xbox.

Basically for the casual bunch, MS should continue to market the 360 as a machine catered to them. It's cheap, offers the few casual games they may want, and can still be the center of the living room. At the same time, MS launches the 720 with competitive specs, sell it at a loss for the first 2-3 years, and markets it towards the hardcore and mainstream crowd. If CoD10 is on the 720, that mainstream market will follow.

Doing what Sony has done the last two generations, while throwing in some Kinect and Live goodness, is probably the best thing MS can do next gen IMO. No reason to hold your new system back to cater to the casuals when you already have a very profitable system that could do the exact same thing.

At E3 they still though they had the potential casual juggernaut in Kinect Star Wars (and the gorgeous Star Wars bundle) for the holidays, though.

Meh, I'm still not convinced that Star Wars bundle would have done much, though I'm not much of a star wars fan so maybe I'm not the best one to gauge it's potential effect.

Still this is all the more reason why a company shouldn't cram their heads up their asses like that before the results are even in.

 

[ii Stryker]

The holy grail for all three console manufacturers is to appeal to all demographics from the get go.

And these billion dollar corporations have teams of people much smarter than us spending millions of dollars on research to achieve just that.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

The holy grail for all three console manufacturers is to appeal to all demographics from the get go.

And these billion dollar corporations have teams of people much smarter than us spending millions of dollars on research to achieve just that.

And some of these billion dollar companies have put their trust in people and plans that lost them hundreds of millions of dollars at different points in the last 5 years. Appeals to authority don't really work in this industry.

 

[charlequin]

To me, it makes much more financial sense for consoles to last a max of about 5-6 years rather than 7-8 like it has this gen. Make money from the very beginning, build modestly, and make money again sooner rather than later.

Yep, a lot of people seem to miss this but it's absolutely true. It is a far better strategy in almost every way to aim for a modest target, sell at a consumer-friendly price, and loop through the generation quickly. The 8-year gen we're looking at is a direct result of the overpriced HD systems and their terrible first few years.

The fact that the weakest hardware won each generation was purely a coincidence IMO.

The point isn't that being weaker is helpful in some way, just that being more powerful has literally no influence on market success until you get to Wii-style full-generation gaps that actively hinder your ability to be in the multiplatform loop. The number of customers who even pay attention to which system has better versions of multiplatform games is minuscule and even those people still make their actual decision on exclusives and other intangibles moreso than system power.

The reality is that the PS3 was the best selling console of last year. If you dont consider that a success, then idk what to tell you.

If you started a new business out of your home, but your business plan was really bad and you bankrupted yourself and accidentally burned down your house, but then you had a really successful bake sale to raise funds to get back on your feet -- was your business a success or not?

How far ahead did that math project?

BluRay royalties can't conceivably make up for PS3 losses over a ten-year timeframe, even if you're just looking at the raw losses and not the delta from hypothetical successful PS3 to real-life failure PS3.

Until we've got a date set I'm still in the Nintex boat.

You should book with a better cruise line. There has been nothing whatsoever pointing to a 2012 release for a Microsoft system and mountains of evidence for a 2013 target date, especially given that their sales numbers for this year make it crystal-clear that they can get through 2012 just fine without a new system. None of the parts (devkits, chip fabs, etc.) are in place for a 2012 holiday season launch; even with 360's late (and rushed) introduction we still had much more info on deck at this point in that cycle.

They could push for an early 2013 release, theoretically, but... why? Summer months are useless and they just put your system in the rearview when it comes to holiday hype. Better to target September, get the launch out before the holiday rush starts and hit the maximum balance of dev/manufacturing time with annual sales.

 

[KageMaru]

Yep, a lot of people seem to miss this but it's absolutely true. It is a far better strategy in almost every way to aim for a modest target, sell at a consumer-friendly price, and loop through the generation quickly. The 8-year gen we're looking at is a direct result of the overpriced HD systems and their terrible first few years.

The problem here is that next gen is likely to be as long as this gen, not because of the poor first years but due to the fact that we're hitting the limit to what we can pack in these boxes to achieve an actual generational jump. In pretty much every next gen thread, there have been countless discussions to what is and isn't feasable from a power consumption and heat perspective. This limit will be harder to work around for the next-next gen. So next gen is likely to be as long, if not longer by default since it would take so long for technology to mature enough to see a worth-while jump.

The point isn't that being weaker is helpful in some way, just that being more powerful has literally no influence on market success until you get to Wii-style full-generation gaps that actively hinder your ability to be in the multiplatform loop. The number of customers who even pay attention to which system has better versions of multiplatform games is minuscule and even those people still make their actual decision on exclusives and other intangibles moreso than system power.

I'm not wishing for MS to make some kind of next gen monster with a gap similar to the xbox and ps2, I just want them to be competitive with each other with the tech they throw in the box.

I suspect both the ps4 and 720 will both launch late 2013, whichever one offers me the best performance for $400 is the console I will pick up first. I'll wait until that must have exclusive hits the other console before I decide to pick that one up. I don't want to be stuck with the lesser version of multi-platform games and as an early adopter I would like to think I'm getting the best my money can buy.

I understand that the hardcore gamers, like those who visit GAF, are the vast minority. However I also think that if both systems launched for $400, but one was noticeably faster than the other, that one would be an easier sell for the parent company.

The way I see it, next gen will be the last gen where we get any decent performance jump from the previous generation, so I'm hoping Sony and MS launch next gen with a bang. =p

 

[AndyMoogle]

You are insane. Wake up and take your medication.

Perhaps you're insane. We are definitely getting at least 16GB RAM (DDR3 RAM is so cheap nowadays, and totally the same as VRAM), and probably twice the capacity of a 7970. All games will run at 60 fps too. This is all happening.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

Perhaps you're insane. We are definitely getting at least 16GB RAM (DDR3 RAM is so cheap nowadays, and totally the same as VRAM), and probably twice the capacity of a 7970. All games will run at 60 fps too. This is all happening.

You kid but I frequent another forum where quite a few posters seriously expect the next gen consoles to do 4K+AA+60fps in 3D!

All with a straight face.

 

[iamshadowlark]

If you started a new business out of your home, but your business plan was really bad and you bankrupted yourself and accidentally burned down your house, but then you had a really successful bake sale to raise funds to get back on your feet -- was your business a success or not?

How many times do I have to explain that im not talking about the overall life of the PS3? The PS3 is successful right now and has momentum and that is what matters most when looking to launch a new product. Of course though, there past mistakes will be lessons learned, and you won't see a CELL or Blu-ray equivalent to skyrocket the price .

Also that analogy is kinda bad.

 

[theBishop]

Yep, a lot of people seem to miss this but it's absolutely true. It is a far better strategy in almost every way to aim for a modest target, sell at a consumer-friendly price, and loop through the generation quickly. The 8-year gen we're looking at is a direct result of the overpriced HD systems and their terrible first few years.

It's smart from a hardware sales perspective, but what about software? Isn't it better for a studio to be able to release 3 or 4 iterations of their technology before having to start over again?

Game consoles are always most profitable in the last few years. So I think there's an argument to be made for the long tail.

 

[KageMaru]

How many times do I have to explain that im not talking about the overall life of the PS3? The PS3 is successful right now and has momentum and that is what matters most when looking to launch a new product. Of course though, there past mistakes will be lessons learned, and you won't see a CELL or Blu-ray equivalent to skyrocket the price .

Also that analogy is kinda bad.

So you think they've already made back the $5-6 billion+ they lost with the PS3?

 

[iamshadowlark]

So you think they've already made back the $5-6 billion+ they lost with the PS3?

Wait, what? Where did that come from?

 

[uneilath]

So what are the odds of there being a kinect free sku of the next xbox? I really don't want to support kinect in any way, shape or form.

 

[KageMaru]

Wait, what? Where did that come from?

Well I was wondering how this turned into a PS3 conversation to begin with, but anyways I guess I should ask how do you determine "success" in this case?

 

[les papillons sexuels]

So what are the odds of there being a kinect free sku of the next xbox? I really don't want to support kinect in any way, shape or form.

slim to none, microsoft wants to make kinect and the interface a new standard for hand free gesture control and the kinect is the best way to introduce people to it. The hands free interface has a huge commercial potential but they need people to feel comfortable with it before introducing it.

 

[Marco1]

So what are the odds of there being a kinect free sku of the next xbox? I really don't want to support kinect in any way, shape or form.

I suppose it depends on how high MS want kinect integrated into the future of xbox.
If it's not possible to purchase xboxnext without kinect then everyone should assume what they are letting themselves in for if they buy it.

 

[KevinRo]

I read Southern Islands architecture. That's 7900 territory.

I can't believe that this is accurate at all.

 

[Marco1]

Doesn't the current kinect have the ability to run at higher resolutions and framerate but is restricted by USB2.0 ?

 

[McHuj]

I read Southern Islands architecture. That's 7900 territory.

I can't believe that this is accurate at all.

77xx and 78xx are supposed to be GCN based as well.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

You should book with a better cruise line. There has been nothing whatsoever pointing to a 2012 release for a Microsoft system and mountains of evidence for a 2013 target date, especially given that their sales numbers for this year make it crystal-clear that they can get through 2012 just fine without a new system. None of the parts (devkits, chip fabs, etc.) are in place for a 2012 holiday season launch; even with 360's late (and rushed) introduction we still had much more info on deck at this point in that cycle.

They could push for an early 2013 release, theoretically, but... why? Summer months are useless and they just put your system in the rearview when it comes to holiday hype. Better to target September, get the launch out before the holiday rush starts and hit the maximum balance of dev/manufacturing time with annual sales.

Oh I know. It isn't based on anything tangible. For me it's just a gut feeling. I think it will come out this year because I don't think MS will give Nintendo the market uncontested (especially their largest market) for any length of time. I don't think it will be a worldwide launch I just have a feeling they won't give Nintendo free reign over the American market.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Well I was wondering how this turned into a PS3 conversation to begin with, but anyways I guess I should ask how do you determine "success" in this case?

I would call out-selling your competitors success. Don't get it twisted though, the overall project from 2006 forward will be considered a failure, all things considered.

Its about how you finish though, and how you set yourself up for the next cycle.

 

[Marco1]

If MS go into next-gen with kinect all singing and all dancing, I wonder if Sony will approach with a more core system.

 

[Curufinwe]

They won't have a free reign. The 360 will be stiff competition for the Wii-U in America at the end of 2012.

 

[ii Stryker]

Its about how you finish though, and how you set yourself up for the next cycle.

Umm yeahhh that means absolutely nothing.

Sony(PS2) led last cycle. This cycle(PS3) last. And in this cycle the strongest performer, nintendo, was the weakest performer and finisher last cycle.

This is a really funny analogy

Its the best analogy in the history of ever.

 

[TheOddOne]

If you started a new business out of your home, but your business plan was really bad and you bankrupted yourself and accidentally burned down your house, but then you had a really successful bake sale to raise funds to get back on your feet -- was your business a success or not?

This is a really funny analogy

 

[Salvor.Hardin]

If you started a new business out of your home, but your business plan was really bad and you bankrupted yourself and accidentally burned down your house, but then you had a really successful bake sale to raise funds to get back on your feet -- was your business a success or not?

I don't frequent the gaming side much for the lack of intelligent and witty quotes, but you have done a splendid job, young man. Bravo.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Umm yeahhh that means absolutely nothing.

PS2 led last cycle. This cycle last. And in this cycle the strongest performer, nintendo, was the weakest performer and finisher last cycle.

Its not as black and white as that, sony did something unprecedented in developing the PS3 the way they did. Nintendo's Wii was unconventional in that it went a completely different direction than the rest of the industry. This whole console cycle was idiosyncratic.