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[Yjynx]

How much time did you spend thinking about this one?
1) game developers can design a game not based around production values, just like modern PC exclusive games
2) why would MS be in a worse position than Sony? Their games sell bucketloads and they don't suffer from cashflow problems..

I'm thinking more about how long it'd take for the game to come out in console. For example I believe both Sony and Nintendo (first party)already preparing game for their next gen. While I still hadn't hear any third party or first party from MS so far.

What I'm afraid of is MS dependence on third party -> third party game took long enough to come out -> resulted in barren amount of game for Xbox (at least in the initial year).

 

[derFeef]

I'm thinking more about how long it'd take for the game to come out in console. For example I believe both Sony and Nintendo (first party)already preparing game for their next gen. While I still hadn't hear any third party or first party from MS so far.

What I'm afraid of is MS dependent on third party -> third party game took long enough to come out -> resulted in barren amount of game for Xbox (at least in the initial year).

Uhm, Alan Wake 2 is apparently in the making, Forza 5 for sure, then the games from the new studios could be next gen as well, Ryse may have been shifted to Durango, and I am sure Epic is preparing something as well for the next system.

 

[Yjynx]

Uhm, Alan Wake 2 is apparently in the making, Forza 5 for sure, then the games from the new studios could be next gen as well, Ryse may have been shifted to Durango, and I am sure Epic is preparing something as well for the next system.

The one that for sure is Alan wake 2 and Ryse. Other than that?


Edit: the new studio could be for developing next gen... kinect games....


Edit2: Now I'm more afraid of more kinect games...

 

[TheOddOne]

I'm thinking more about how long it'd take for the game to come out in console. For example I believe both Sony and Nintendo (first party)already preparing game for their next gen. While I still hadn't hear any third party or first party from MS so far.

What I'm afraid of is MS dependent on third party -> third party game took long enough to come out -> resulted in barren amount of game for Xbox (at least in the initial year).

- Microsoft Vancouver project has apparently been moved to next console.
- 343's Halo 5 and Halo 6 will be for the next console.
- Turn10 and Lionhead are hiring for the next console.
- Their publishing team is expanding to focus on "core" games.
- We have yet to hear from their other newly upstart studios.

All points to them moving to the new console.

 

[gaming_noob]

I am excite. If Durango has a life span of 10 years, then these costs will eventually level as another poster has stated here. We may need to wait an extra year for each release or see shorter games but I'm fine with that.

- 343's Halo 5 and Halo 6 will be for the next console.

Didn't MS or Bungie state the next trilogy would be on 360? Liars!

 

[TheOddOne]

Didn't MS or Bungie state the next trilogy would be on 360? Liars!

Nope.

 

[GraveRobberX]

Edit: the new studio could be for developing next gen... kinect games....

Edit2: Now I'm more afraid of more kinect games...

20 Teams, 400 people?

 

[maquiladora]

Why are there two articles from this hack on the front page?

That "hack" has worked for EA, Activision and Capcom. He is an editor on GI.biz, check the archives of his previous articles tagged exclusive, you'll find nothing hackish about them.

Just because someone writes things you don't want to hear doesn't make them a hack. Jesus.

 

[derFeef]

The one that for sure is Alan wake 2 and Ryse. Other than that?


Edit: the new studio could be for developing next gen... kinect games....


Edit2: Now I'm more afraid of more kinect games...

Sure, about 500 people...
People always claim "ahaha, it's going to be a Kinect game" - but that never happened, not even with American Nightmare.

Why are you afraid of more Kinect games? Nothing of that indicates "Kinect game" - to me it sounds like a core push.

 

[Yjynx]

Sure, about 500 people...
People always claim "ahaha, it's going to be a Kinect game" - but that never happened, not even with American Nightmare.

Why are you afraid of more Kinect games? Nothing of that indicates "Kinect game" - to me it sounds like a core push.

The sweet temptation and taste of casual gaming? LOL that aside I really do hope that would be the case.

 

[Coolwhip]

One thing that will take so much more time and money with the next batch of consoles is making characters realistic. If the visuals become even more photo realistic, bad voice acting, animation, faces and acting of characters in general will stand out so much more. Great actors get paid millions for movies, how will videogame characters become believable if they look real, but act like C class actors. Add to that poor writing, poor story that plagues most games. I think things like these will become a real problem.

 

[dr_rus]

Learn

To

QFT

 

[mugurumakensei]

My first thought was double his budget he can spend on polygons,textures res and bones for rigging. Really if cost are going to increase because you can use more polygons then something is wrong with you. If you are used to make 15k polygon models and can now use 45k polygons doesn't mean you have to go all the way or just use a cheap shortcut called subdivide/tesselate.

More detail = More time to model. Making a mistake in the modeling could cause the collision detection of the engine to break.

 

[Replicant]

I know it's unlikely but I hope neither MS or Sony change the name for their next console. "Durango" and "Orbis" sound good to me.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I know it's unlikely but I hope neither MS or Sony change the name for their next console. "Durango" and "Orbis" sound good to me.

Merge them. Durangorbis.

 

[dark10x]

Isn't it true that higher resolutions models are typically generated in order to create normal maps? Wouldn't it be possible to use more of the original mesh with the new hardware?

 

[EXGN]

Not surprising. Developing on a platform becomes easier and the budget declines over time as familiarity increases. Like Killzone 2 cost $60 million to make while Killzone 3 cost only $40 million.

 

[disco]

Oh well. There goes the neighbourhood. Looks like COD will be the only survivor having destroyed everything else. Great, just great.

 

[zoukka]

Isn't it true that higher resolutions models are typically generated in order to create normal maps? Wouldn't it be possible to use more of the original mesh with the new hardware?

Yes, yes it is and same goes for texturing. But does it matter that the "developer" comment is bullshit when we can go apeshit in a funny thread?

 

[derFeef]

Isn't it true that higher resolutions models are typically generated in order to create normal maps? Wouldn't it be possible to use more of the original mesh with the new hardware?

Yep. Plus you can still use lower polycount with intelligent use of tessellation (now that we might get it).
And don't reduce the texture maps in resolution as heavily. There - much better looking realtime model - see Witcher 2.

 

[AceBandage]

Yes, yes it is and same goes for texturing. But does it matter that the "developer" comment is bullshit when we can go apeshit in a funny thread?

Reminds me another thread by GameBiz that was posted recently...

 

[HylianTom]

So...Durango is real and is fucking beast? Good. Now just need to hear confirmation for PS4 and we're good.

Indeed.

Sony needs to beef the hell out of their next console. If it isn't incredibly, mind-blowingly powerful, then what's the purpose? Really.

 

[Criminal Upper]

This news is and SHOULD be alot more worrying to everyone than if the WiiU is as powerful as current gen machines or not.

Edit: Sadly, as expected, I see there's alot of "FUCK YEAH! This machine is gonna be a beast!" posts.

smh

 

[Mandoric]

This is horrible. If the average cost of developing HD games this generation is between $18 million to $28 million then Mr. Yves Guillemot's forecast of next gen game development cost of $60 million is likely to be true.

What this means is that the console sector of the video game industry will likely crash if indeed costs for developing next gen games double.

Wait, the average cost for a western HD game is around $25 million? When Japan's budgeting around $3.5m?

(Which I guess goes to show exactly how much good keeping a small budget does, :lol)

 

[kylej]

I would be fine with them using the same assets as this gen and render them in 1080p and 60fps, maybe better draw distance, more enemies on screen.

Absolutely.

 

[Derrick01]

This news is and SHOULD be alot more worrying to everyone than if the WiiU is as powerful as current gen machines or not.

Edit: Sadly, as expected, I see there's alot of "FUCK YEAH! This machine is gonna be a beast!" posts.

smh

Some of us want to see an actual improvement, and I'm not going to celebrate Nintendo's extreme cheapness to the point where they still won't even have a current gen machine (assuming rumors are true).

There's going to be a lot of corpses next gen but that's because so many now don't budget well. If dev costs are going to double that's their fault. As it's been said in this thread there's no reason why it should double, at least for what they're talking about.

 

[Erethian]

It's the reason I'm arguing for the Wii U a few posts above this.
As far as technology is concerned, we have reached the point of diminishing returns. Modest power bumps are the way of the future, at least for a generational cycle or two.

This same argument was made with the Wii, and we saw where that went. Now the system didn't adhere to the sort of architecture developers were used to, especially the ex-PC developers who switched over en masse to consoles and now make the bulk of the games, so that complicated things a bit. But I don't think there's any indication that game companies are going to stop chasing the blockbuster model and "settle", as some people would put it.

What I do think we'll see are a lot of multiplatform titles that utilise the same engine on the 360/PS3 as they do on the WiiU/PS4/Nextbox, at least in the first year or two.

 

[magash]

Wait, the average cost for a western HD game is around $25 million? When Japan's budgeting around $3.5m?

(Which I guess goes to show exactly how much good keeping a small budget does, :lol)

I do not know how the Japanese developers arrived at 3.5 million. Maybe their costs do not include every single facet of development...who knows but one should keep in mind that just licencing UE3 for commercial use costs at least $700,000.

 

[derFeef]

This news is and SHOULD be alot more worrying to everyone than if the WiiU is as powerful as current gen machines or not.

Edit: Sadly, as expected, I see there's alot of "FUCK YEAH! This machine is gonna be a beast!" posts.

smh

I have counted one post of that kind ;-) And this isn't news - games bigger in scope are going to cost more, but those games get budgeted correctly beforehand if I would have to guess.
And yeah, next get is going to be "Wichter 2 +" on consoles - so all is good.

 

[gaming_noob]

This news is and SHOULD be alot more worrying to everyone than if the WiiU is as powerful as current gen machines or not.

Edit: Sadly, as expected, I see there's alot of "FUCK YEAH! This machine is gonna be a beast!" posts.

smh

If developers have smaller budgets they can stick with XBLA, which is growing in popularity. With Durango, the developer gets to choose, whereas on the WiiU there's a much lower ceiling for graphics.

 

[Mandoric]

I do not know how the Japanese developers arrived at 3.5 million. Maybe their costs do not include every single facet of development...who knows but one should keep in mind that just licencing UE3 for commercial use costs at least $700,000.

Well, it's a self-selected survey, and the AAA outliers didn't volunteer their info. But I'm assuming the $18-$28m figure ($10m per platform apparently?) also includes a lot of B games or it wouldn't be called "average".

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

You know, aiming for 60 fps/1080p/more AA would actually save developers time and money versus trying to squeeze as much detail as possible into 720p/30fps. Food for thought. Unless your game is GTA, CoD, AC, or BF, I don't see how a budget doubling is sustainable.

 

[erpg]

Japan's been uprezzing PS2 game for 5 years, we can learn a thing or two.

Today's console gen games at 60 FPS, 1080p, and max filtering, better LOD and shadows - I'm okay with that.

 

[plufim]

WHO WANTS 70 DOLLAR GAMES?!?

A lot of people are acting like this would double the total budget, but this is only about the art budget, is it not? Still a significant percentage of the overall budget, but not all of it.

 

[Criminal Upper]

Some of us want to see an actual improvement, and I'm not going to celebrate Nintendo's extreme cheapness to the point where they still won't even have a current gen machine (assuming rumors are true).

There's going to be a lot of corpses next gen but that's because so many now don't budget well. If dev costs are going to double that's their fault. As it's been said in this thread there's no reason why it should double, at least for what they're talking about.

We've seen dozens of great developers go under that had nothing to do with their games being bad, or being overbudgeted. Bizarre, Pandemic, and Zipper just to name a few.

If you're looking forward to more of that next gen, more power to you, I guess.

 

[magash]

Well, it's a self-selected survey, and the AAA outliers didn't volunteer their info. But I'm assuming the $18-$28m figure ($10m per platform apparently?) also includes a lot of B games or it wouldn't be called "average".

Probably.

I have a strong feeling the Japanese developers will be extremely hesitant this time around in going with whatever development paradigm both MS and Sony present.

As things stand today games are too expensive to develop so just adding more expenses and increasing the cost to what we have now might push the console sector towards a point of no return. I shudder to think the effect an average development cost of $60 million will have on the industry.

 

[Ponn]

I'm out next gen. This is getting to expensive and ridiculous. Just going to play my backlog and handhelds. Positive I see is a lot of jrpg's sticking with ps3 past ps4 release like last gen but to a greater degree.

 

[Dead Man]

I would be fine with them using the same assets as this gen and render them in 1080p and 60fps, maybe better draw distance, more enemies on screen.

From the first page, but still correct.

 

[CSX]

$60 for the disc. $60 for the rest of the game through DLC

Welcome to the future

 

[dragonelite]

More detail = More time to model. Making a mistake in the modeling could cause the collision detection of the engine to break.

Standard art pipeline is already make high res art source containing 100k+ to multiple millions of polygons to bake all the info in normal maps and other. So that is not the issues. The issues will come when you have to remake that 100k+ to multiple million polygon model in to a mesh containing only 15k which also is convincing to people that the model has the same detail as the 100k+ ones.

And no that is not how collision work unless your new to it and want to fuck up precious resources. Most devs will use a collision mesh which is way simpler then the detail mesh players see.
Yellow is the collision mesh.

 

[eve241]

Hopefully as development costs rise, developers will start to REALLY focus on original concepts instead of trying to have great graphics and technology.

This obsession with eye candy has got to die. I yearn for the day when people won't really care about the graphics and middleware use will be so widespread, developers won't spend all their efforts working on their own engines and the like.

 

[Clear]

More hardware power inevitably has a knock-on effect.

Look at it this way: If you aren't using the added grunt to make things better, what's the point? And all it takes is for one title to lift that bar a notch or two higher, then the pressure is on for everyone with a similar or competing product to match it.

As to the stuff being spouted about ZBrush and using high-poly models for env-mapping. Yes, that does happen but its actually less relevant than you might imagine.

For a start off, quickly making a super-high poly model is not the same deal as making the best model you can within a certain fixed poly-budget. That is to say, if you aren't making efficient use of the number of triangles/textures in a model you're simply wasting gpu-time and memory. This is an engineering and logistics thing, you start skimping on/being sloppy with parts and the whole will assuredly suffer.

There will always be a need to do the best possible within a constrained poly-budget.

 

[phosphor112]

Quick question. Don't they create models in their highest resolution first, THEN create the LODs?

 

[subversus]

Yellow is the collision mesh.

this is why collision looks bad in most games.

 

[TxdoHawk]

I can't believe there are still people who argue that the new consoles will save us from blandness in game design and sequelitis, in the face of reports like this. Well no, scratch that. I'm sure there are people who believe this, but when I hear dudes like the Giant Bomb crew (who should definitely know better) preach this stuff, it blows my mind.

I was talking about this with a good friend of mine yesterday and he argues that aside from the DLC issue, we have never had it better with console games than we do now. I'm inclined to agree, and I wonder if this will ultimately be the high point.

 

[Dead Man]

More hardware power inevitably has a knock-on effect.

Look at it this way: If you aren't using the added grunt to make things better, what's the point? And all it takes is for one title to lift that bar a notch or two higher, then the pressure is on for everyone with a similar or competing product to match it.

As to the stuff being spouted about ZBrush and using high-poly models for env-mapping. Yes, that does happen but its actually less relevant than you might imagine.

For a start off, quickly making a super-high poly model is not the same deal as making the best model you can within a certain fixed poly-budget. That is to say, if you aren't making efficient use of the number of triangles/textures in a model you're simply wasting gpu-time and memory. This is an engineering and logistics thing, you start skimping on/being sloppy with parts and the whole will assuredly suffer.

There will always be a need to do the best possible within a constrained poly-budget.

Better doesn't have to equal more polygons though.

 

[CrankyKong]

Let's just go back to sprites

 

[Kyoufu]

Welp, I fear for Japanese developers next-gen. Good luck Capcom, Namco and S-E.

 

[dark10x]

Let's just go back to sprites

That would actually be pretty expensive as well.

 

[derFeef]

Let's just go back to sprites

Because nice sprites make themselves. You need more highly talented people overall.