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[Barack Lesnar]

Earlier this year someone made a thread with predictions on NPD bombs and hits for the first half of the year and I thought it was really neat and to-the-point so I wanna make one for the next 5 months, Aug-Dec. Please post yours. I'm missing a lot of games like The Last Story cause I don't anything about them. Also not listing obvious mega hits like CoD, AC, MoH, and so on.

Here's a list of upcoming games to use: http://www.ign.com/games/upcoming?filter=latest

Darksiders II (August 14) - surprise semi-bomb, meaning it'll chart in the top 10 and give this perception that it sold well but the numbers will be like 200-250k across all platforms. Sort of like a Deus Ex HR type of semi-bomb which I believe sold around 200-300k its first month.

Sleeping Dogs (August 14) - mega bomb

Transformers Fall of Cybertron (August 21) - sadly a bomb

Guild Wars 2 (August 28) - monster hit, expecting over a mil in its first few days and 1.5 mil the first month.

Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (September 11) - semi-bomb

Borderlands 2 (September 18) - big hit, easily totaling over 500k first month across all platforms PC/360/PS3, probably around 700-800k'ish.

Dead or Alive 5 (September 25) - huge bomb

Dishonored (October 9) - surprisingly huge bomb. This will be a big critical success but bomb sales-wise, probably under 200k first month.

X-COM Enemy Unknown (October 9) - sadly a mega bomb

007 Legends (October 16) - huge bomb

Playstation All Stars Battle Royale (October 23) - big bomb, will probably be #8 or 9 on the individual sku top 10 for npd. I'd say around 100k

Hitman Absolution (November 20) - semi-hit, been too long since the last one so not a big hit.

Far Cry 3 (December 4) - semi-hit, I think the delay to December will help a bit, gives it a little breathing room.

ZombiU (November?) - assuming this isn't in a bundle I think it could be a small bomb, meaning it'll put up around 125 -150k

 

[Jarmel]

I'm expecting this fall to be a graveyard for the most part. RE and AC will sell because they always sell but I expect a majority of the rest to bomb and hard.

 

[dallow_bg]

Lugi's Mansion - 3DS - bomb

 

[toythatkills]

In the UK, everything will be £17.99 week three.

 

[nhlducks35]

Lugi's Mansion - 3DS - bomb

 

[Yoshichan]

Not sure on any of these besides Borderlands 2. I'm positive it'll sell!

Oh and TTT2 will semi-bomb, unfortunately.

 

[Acquiescence]

Dishonoured will do alright on the PC, but bomb badly on consoles.

 

[ComputerMKII]

Assassin's Creed 3, Resident Evil 6 and GTA V: Huge hits

 

[Salvadora]

Assassin's Creed 3, Resident Evil 6 and GTA V: Huge hits

GTA V won't be this fall.

 

[Verelios]

TTT2 is going to be fine. People are just too sensitive.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Dishonoured will do alright on the PC, but bomb badly on consoles.

This is probably what will happen.

 

[Razek]

The funny part is, if some of these games are so easy to tell if they will flop or not, how did they get green-lit in the first place?

 

[PSYGN]

Assassin's Creed 3, Resident Evil 6 and GTA V: Huge hits

Huge tits.

 

[GrandHarrier]

I think X-Com may end up surprising people. Also, I think Transformers will end up doing fairly decently as well.

 

[VillageNinja]

Borderlands 2 is going to be a fucking massive hit. Mark these words. Easily a million, first week. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a million~ per platform first week.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Too many shooters, so ALL fighting games will be a bomb. I mean which fighting game isnt a bomb lately.

 

[Zeouterlimits]

The level of marketing for a few of the titles are the big questions for them e.g. Dishonoured.

I think it can do well, it just has to be sold correctly.

 

[legacyzero]

I'm hoping Far Cry 3 is a big success.

 

[ULTROS!]

Tekken Tag Tournament 2 - hit

 

[kayos90]

Why isn't AC3 and RE6 on that list?

 

[spats]

PSA:BR will bomb hard, as will Dishonored. Borderlands 2 will do really well, I'll propably be contributing to that success myself.

 

[dave is ok]

My prediction: Mists of Pandaria will sell worse than any previous WoW expansion.

 

[Labadal]

Dishonored will bomb hard and it will crush my spirits.

 

[Alienups]

I want Darksiders 2 to do well but i'm not confident it will.

A game i am confident about is Borderlands 2, i really expect it to light up the charts.

 

[Guevara]

3DS XL (hardware) - I'm guess slow. In fact I think we'll see a flood of 3DS/3DS XL bundles this Fall/Winter.

 

[Somnid]

Out of the OP's list I really only see Borderlands not bombing. Playstation All-Stars will do okay.

I think CoD will do less than usual. Halo 4 will be a hit but won't exceed the franchise expectations.

I think everything Nintendo puts on Wii U will do at least decently given the start-up userbase. Most of Ubisoft's will do okay but not great.

Luigi's Mansion will do okay. Paper Mario will do well.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

The funny part is, if some of these games are so easy to tell if they will flop or not, how did they get green-lit in the first place?

I was thinking the same thing while looking through the list. It reminds me a lot of the movie industry when you see these obvious mega bombs like John Carter being green-lit for 300 million (decent movie btw!). Moms on Mars (200 mil), Conan (150 mil), there's so many of these that just make you shake your head.

 

[Yoshichan]

Why isn't AC3 and RE6 on that list?

Because they're both guaranteed to sell millions.

There is literally 0.0% chance that any of these will "bomb" or even "semi-bomb".

 

[Razek]

I was thinking the same thing while looking through the list. It reminds me a lot of the movie industry when you see these obvious mega bombs like John Carter being green-lit or 300 million (decent movie btw!).

It just goes to show how out of touch publishing execs are when it comes to the industry.

 

[Tagg9]

Sly Cooper: TiT - Bomb. =(

 

[Canis lupus]

TTT2 semi hit
AC3 huge hit
Darksiders 2 semi bomb
DOA 5 semi bomb
PSASBR semi hit, word of mouth will help this game
Sly 4 semi hit
One Piece PW huge hit, more than 500k

 

[Derrick01]

Dishonoured will do alright on the PC, but bomb badly on consoles.

Maybe not. It's coming out the same day as Xcom and Steam users love both the franchise and the developer behind it. Dishonored will probably bomb and I will go on hating people even more than I do now.

 

[kayos90]

Because they're both guaranteed to sell millions.

There is literally 0.0% chance that any of these will "bomb" or even "semi-bomb".

But this is a bomb/HIT list. Not simply a bomb list.

 

[spats]

Sly Cooper: TiT - Bomb. =(

Yeah, that one's going to sting.

 

[Yoshichan]

But this is a bomb/HIT list. Not simply a bomb list.

Yeah, you're right, haha!

 

[TimeEffect]

For some reason, I thought this was a terrorism/assassination thread.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

But this is a bomb/HIT list. Not simply a bomb list.

Well it just feels like a waste of space to put CoD, MoH, AC, RE6, NSMB 2 on the list as they're all guaranteed to sell tons. Maaaaybe RE6 isn't 100% guaranteed like the others but it still probably will.

 

[Tobor]

Anything released on Vita other than Persona 4: Bomb.

 

[2San]

Deus Ex HR semi-bombed? Did it at least have good after sales? I finished the game yesterday, the game is great imo(the final part was meeehhh though).

 

[Pooya]

Darksiders II will sell quite a bit less than first one in NPD.

 

[Pranay]

Games will sell well in fall.

Darksiders II (August 14) - good

Sleeping Dogs (August 14) - Under whelming sales

Transformers Fall of Cybertron (August 21) - average

Guild Wars 2 (August 28) - Will do great

Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (September 11) - Decent enough for the franchice

Borderlands 2 (September 18) - Hit

Dead or Alive 5 (September 25) - Decent enough for the pranchise

Dishonored (October 9) - average

X-COM Enemy Unknown (October 9) - Average, decent on PC

007 Legends (October 16) - ........

Playstation All Stars Battle Royale (October 23) - Will do great. Should do 600k imo

Hitman Absolution (November 20) - Hit

Far Cry 3 (December 4) - Hit



BO 2 - 7 million
Halo 4 - 4 million [will outsell BO2 on 360]
RE 6 - 1 million +
AC 3 - 1 million +

 

[kayos90]

Deus Ex HR semi-bombed? Did it at least have good after sales? I finished the game yesterday, the game is great imo(the final part was meeehhh though).

It had pretty good overall sales. Boosted S-E profits a bit.

 

[XANDER CAGE]

Darksiders II (August 14) - Small hit.

Sleeping Dogs (August 14) - Likewise, respectable surprise hit. Not any other open-world modern games.

Transformers Fall of Cybertron (August 21) - Bomb.

Guild Wars 2 (August 28) - This will either be a massive bomb or a massive hit. People are sick of MMOs, but GW2 is also not a typical MMO - will be interesting to see.

Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (September 11) - Bomba.

Borderlands 2 (September 18) - Smash hit.

Dead or Alive 5 (September 25) - Kablooey.

Dishonored (October 9) - Will probably be a cult hit, but bomb. I hope I'm wrong.

X-COM Enemy Unknown (October 9) - Decent hit. It could lure enough people unaware of the series.

007 Legends (October 16) - Bomb.

Playstation All Stars Battle Royale (October 23) - Decent hit, for a PS3 exclusive. Not s system mover, though, I'd imagine.

Hitman Absolution (November 20) - Hit. Could imagine this being a pretty big hit, honestly. I'm at least expecting critical success + cult status, although it could bomb sales-wise.

Far Cry 3 (December 4) - December launch? Eeeeeh. Cruisin' for a bomba, but the game could be great. Small hit, I'd say.

Assassin's Creed 3 - Ubisoft drowning in money for months to come

BLOPS 2 - Will be interesting to watch. Will it be the first COD to have a decline? Will it break records? How will it perform critically? My money is on lukewarm critical reception, great sales, and either cult status or total hatred within the COD community.

Halo 4 - I don't see any way that this couldn't be a sales hit, especially for a system exclusive.

 

[Spirit of Jazz]

In the UK, everything will be £17.99 week three.

On PC DD everything will be £17.99 pre-purchase.

 

[Aguirre]

Far Cry 3 - bomb. trying to be edgy, but the only edge they will achieve is the one from the sword they have fallen on.

 

[Darklord]

Darksiders II (August 14) - Does okay but no sequel.

Sleeping Dogs (August 14) - semi-hit

Transformers Fall of Cybertron (August 21) - Bomb

Guild Wars 2 (August 28) - Hit

Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (September 11) - semi-bomb

Borderlands 2 (September 18) - Hit

Dead or Alive 5 (September 25) - Bomb

Dishonored (October 9) - Hit

X-COM Enemy Unknown (October 9) - Semi-bomb

007 Legends (October 16) - Bomb

Playstation All Stars Battle Royale (October 23) - Semi-hit

Hitman Absolution (November 20) - semi-hit

Far Cry 3 (December 4) - Hit

ZombiU (November?) - Semi-hit

 

[Eideka]

Dishonoured will do alright on the PC, but bomb badly on consoles.

Why ? Why could not this do very well on consoles ?

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Darksiders II will sell quite a bit less than first one in NPD.

How much did the first one sell its first month?

 

[2San]

It had pretty good overall sales. Boosted S-E profits a bit.

That's good, would've beena shame if it didn't sell well.

 

[Hindle]

Resi 6 - Will underperform.

Dishonoured - Deus Ex style hit, 2m+

Xcom - The sleeper hit for this year.

Borderlands 2 - Blows everyone away. 8M+

Hitman Absolution - The real breakout hit for the series. 5m+

Darksiders II - Does way better then the first, enough so a 3rd game gets made.

Ac III - 10m+ easily.