TyrantGuardian
Member
If Dishonored turns out even half as good as it seems to be, I bet it will be one of those ridiculous underrated games that will generate a cult following but flop sales wise. Which is a complete shame, since I love the genre.
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Bomb/Hit predictions for this Fall
- Thread starter Barack Lesnar
- Start date
Deus Ex did ok if not very slightly disappointing on its first month of NPDs. But it did amaaazing on Steam. It was around 56k concurrent users every day and people have estimated you need to sell around 10 times as much to get those numbers. So it did really well on PC on release.
Sly 4 will sell decently, but not enough to make a dent in the charts.
Sleeping Dogs and Darksiders 2 will sell well enough to make their publishers happy.
Depending on how SCE does the marketing, All Stars might do better than people expect.
X-Com will do amazingly on PC, but sell next to nothing on consoles.
Dishonoured will surprise people by selling extremely well. It'll basically pull a Fallout 3.
Sleeping Dogs and Darksiders 2 will sell well enough to make their publishers happy.
Depending on how SCE does the marketing, All Stars might do better than people expect.
X-Com will do amazingly on PC, but sell next to nothing on consoles.
Dishonoured will surprise people by selling extremely well. It'll basically pull a Fallout 3.
blame space
Banned
it's cute when you guys do this
Deus Ex ended up with about 2.5 million shipped, but a low average selling price.
It's not a bad comeback for the franchise.
If Dishonored does that well, I'll be quite impressed.
I think TTT2 will be the best selling fighter this gen- outselling SF and MK.
DOA5 and Sony Smash Bros are going to bomb hard though.
Agreed with all of this except that AC3 is going to sell way, way more than 1 million. I predict Halo 4 level numbers for AC3 across all platforms.
People saying games like TTT2 and such will "bomb" are just going by the idea that all hit games must be million sellers, I guess? The publishers know how many copies these things sell. 300,000 copies could very easily be a "hit" for a game planned to sell that many.
Speedymanic
Banned
Darksiders 2, Sleeping Dogs, Dishonored, All Stars and Transformers will range from mild bomb to huge catastrophic bomb that will sink that respective studio/developer.
Transformer devs are all but certain to be shuttered by years end.
Transformer devs are all but certain to be shuttered by years end.
The PC version is a good port, so well deserved on that front also.
Yeah hope the game will be good and will have the sales to back it up. While the footage looks great, I need impression to convince me to buy.
I would be really happy if it could pull that number by the end of the year.
I know I get really angry when people confuse this as a Bethesda game but that could help it sell more after Skyrim's success. If that's what it takes to sell it then I'll deal with it.
2San said:
Yeah and I'm pretty sure the 10 hour leak of the game helped it a lot too. It was near unanimous praise.
High Moon already has a new game in the works. They're making the deadpool game.
High Moon just announced a Deadpool game at comic con, so where do you get this from?
Franklinator
Member
I think Playstation Allstars is gonna bomb really hard. Even as a huge Smash Bros fan, it's utterly unappealing to me.
And like others have said, Borderlands 2 is going to be huge.
And like others have said, Borderlands 2 is going to be huge.
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
Offtopic but that deadpool looks wack.
How much did deus ex do in the second month ?
Honestly it doesn't look that good to me either.
Still though, no reason to believe that High Moon witll be shuttered. Even less so when they saw the sales of War for Cybertron and aren't probably expecting the world from Fall.
I do think this is the last we will see of Transformers for a long time, but not High Moon.
Yoshichan
And they made him a Lord of Cinder. Not for virtue, but for might. Such is a lord, I suppose. But here I ask. Do we have a sodding chance?
What exactly is "under-performing" for a game like RE6?
Barack Lesnar
Banned
I'd be really surprised if it sold worse than that. Sub 170k That would be an epic bomb.
About RE6, I'm starting to agree that it might be in some trouble. It'll sell well but a good amount less than RE5 so it'll be considered a pretty big disappointment overall for Capcom. I feel like Q1 or Q2 2013 would've been a better time frame to release this.
BLOPS2 - biggest CoD first month sales ever. Blops1 was so huge, I just feel people are aching for a 'return to form' after MW3.
AC3 - 1.2-1.5 mil first month
MoH Warfighter - 700-800k
Halo 4 - wouldn't be surprised it sells less than Halo 3 its first month, but not a lot less just a little less.
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Since everyone buys the same 2-3 games every year, those franchises will do well. Nothing else will, gamers are the problem for a stale industry and no new IP.
I will probably only buy games that will "bomb", they look the most interesting.
I will probably only buy games that will "bomb", they look the most interesting.
Speedymanic
Banned
I forgot about DP. They'll probably be shuttered after that if it doesn't so well.
I'm basing it on Activision's shuttering of studios that have two/three bombs. They'll either be downsized and moved onto CoD or they'll be completely shuttered like Bizarre.
I dont think it will do the same numbers as Resi 5, mainly because that game pissed a lot of people off.
Edit. Maybe it does more in it's first day but less overall.
That game also created alot of new fans.
RE6 given all the returning characters, multiplayer and huge amount of content can easily do the same.
HamPster PamPster
Member
Vita Software: If a bomb drops in the woods and no one hears it, is it still a bomb?
WanderingWind
Mecklemore Is My Favorite Wrapper
No way Dead or Alive bombs. It's on the 360 and T&A is one of the bullet points. Also, there is violence.
Tekken may bomb compared to Street Fighter IV, but it'll do well enough, I think
Tekken may bomb compared to Street Fighter IV, but it'll do well enough, I think
Speedymanic
Banned
I'm not so sure. I think the demo which is coming will attract those who otherwise ignore RE titles, it will balance out.
It's anecdotal, but a guy at work who has never played an RE game in his life is really looking forward to it after I burned him a copy of the demo. He's since passed it on to his friends, so are also apparently interested.
You're wrong about Halo 4.
lol who did Resident Evil 5 piss off? What are you basing this off? A couple angry people on the internet?
The fact that a piece of shit spinoff like Raccoon City did so well completely negates that claim.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
DoA 5 will be a huge bomb. T&A won't make a diff
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
This. Halo 4 is the start of a new trilogy it could really be a turn around for the franchise. And have dat halo 2 type effect.
Yeah if anything ORC would be the thing to turn people off, and given that it is clearly a spin off and still did that well it likely won't effect how people take in a main entry.
I'm curious to see how Playstation All-stars is going to do. I don't think it will be a huge success, but I think it will do a little better than the bomb most people expect it to be. Its pretty much Sony's biggest game this holiday and they will apparently be marketing a lot.
There are far to many games coming out this Fall/Holiday. Only a handful I think will see any major success. It's just a matter of how much money people will have and if certain titles will cannibalize each other.
Darksiders 2 I think will do poorly. I think the choice is this or AC3 even though AC3 doesn't come out until October. Does one spend the money to buy DS2 now at full price or wait until AC3 comes. It's clear which will be the more popular game and the showing of it at E3 could have sealed the deal for a LOT of people. I don't not feel confident in DS2 and part of why I'm waiting in general (not even for the Wii U version) to see how quickly the price on that drops.
Then there is the issue of the Wii U. I would expect the launch of a new console would hurt sales of games around that time. That's a lot of money to invest and early adopters would be people across all systems. I would expect the same when the PS4 and 720 launch as well. Only certain titles would be able to withstand that type of event during the launch months. Halo 4, Black Ops 2, AC3 and maybe RE6 should be fine for example when it comes to big successes. Everything else that isn't in that group or Wii U launch game could take a beating. Launch games as a result, some of them, would see unexpected success (the type certain games would normally not get).
For Wii U launch games I see the following doing okay with varying degrees of success..
New Super Mario Bros U
Zombi U
Black Ops 2 (if it's a launch game)
Just Dance 4
Pikmin 3
Assassin's Creed 3 could really go either way. I think it will just do okay but be very close to bomb unless somethings sets it apart from the others.
Edit: Is the hype for Borderlands 2 really that high?
Darksiders 2 I think will do poorly. I think the choice is this or AC3 even though AC3 doesn't come out until October. Does one spend the money to buy DS2 now at full price or wait until AC3 comes. It's clear which will be the more popular game and the showing of it at E3 could have sealed the deal for a LOT of people. I don't not feel confident in DS2 and part of why I'm waiting in general (not even for the Wii U version) to see how quickly the price on that drops.
Then there is the issue of the Wii U. I would expect the launch of a new console would hurt sales of games around that time. That's a lot of money to invest and early adopters would be people across all systems. I would expect the same when the PS4 and 720 launch as well. Only certain titles would be able to withstand that type of event during the launch months. Halo 4, Black Ops 2, AC3 and maybe RE6 should be fine for example when it comes to big successes. Everything else that isn't in that group or Wii U launch game could take a beating. Launch games as a result, some of them, would see unexpected success (the type certain games would normally not get).
For Wii U launch games I see the following doing okay with varying degrees of success..
New Super Mario Bros U
Zombi U
Black Ops 2 (if it's a launch game)
Just Dance 4
Pikmin 3
Assassin's Creed 3 could really go either way. I think it will just do okay but be very close to bomb unless somethings sets it apart from the others.
Edit: Is the hype for Borderlands 2 really that high?
Ghost_Protocol
Member
You forgot Dark Souls PC, which is going to bomb incredibly hard.
Just people I generally speak to. The franchise has been shit for a while imo, it's bound to affect the sales eventually.
Speedymanic
Banned
An ad campaign playing up the various powers and showcasing the somewhat unique aesthetic would certainly help to attract a few sales.
They especially need to focus on the powers, that will help attract a lot of people who might otherwise have ignored it.
4 (when combined) and 5 are two of th best selling entries in the franchise, and numbers keep going up. Regardless of quality I don't see anything that points to 6 suddenly doing worse, even less so when Capcom are throwing in so much stuff that fans asked for at least on the surface.
yankeehater
Member
Far Cry 3 will be a big bomb and Borderlands 2 is going to be a huge run away hit. BL2 is going to be such a great game.