electroplankton
Banned
Sure, but that's a really nice base to begin with.
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Media Create Sales: Week 31, 2012 (Jul 30 - Aug 05)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Sure, but that's a really nice base to begin with.
KillerMan91
Member
It went to Wii because when the decision was made PS3 was selling like shit and Wii was breaking all kinds of records even in Japan. Shame that noone knew that Wii would fall of the cliff and PS3 would have actually rather active userbase even in this late to the gen. Not to mention that especially for MMO hw and online infrastructure of PS3 would have been miles better.
test_account
XP-39C²
True, but it doesnt really mean much at this point in my opinion because it completely depends on how many players who want to continue playing it and pay for it. It could be 20% or it could be 80%, impossible to know at this stage. If they can get ~40% to stay, it should be quite good i think.
I wonder how the kids' hour works regarding subscription by the way. If it is free to play 2 hours every day, then Square Enix cant cancel a single subscription?
electroplankton
Banned
Now, the most important thing is to sell as much as possible with the retail release, so to have a good userbase to begin with.
test_account
XP-39C²
What it sells in the begining doesnt really matter that much if people wont continue to pay for subscription. People who buy a new copy might be tired of the game after the free period is over. They make money from the retail sales too, sure, but it is in the subscription where the real money is. Otherwise they could just make a single player game only and sell maybe 1.5 - 2 million more copies. I'm not saying that it will be many or few subscribers, i'm just saying that it is too early to say much about it. They used many years developing the game, so i hope that it is successful.
Wow, lots of good analysis, and things to shake my head at.
I think the biggest misconception is that people in Japan will buy anything with Dragon Quest on it. This is the lazy man's understanding as to why Dragon Quest games sell. People didn't buy DQIX just because of the name.
Most of the negative reviews on Amazon are complaining that the game is online only. Quite a few reviews say "this game is only for gamers, not for regular Dragon Quest players", meaning that for the millions of people who really only play Dragon Quest every few years, this is the game to skip. People are informed consumers, and are skipping the game because they're not interested in an online game.
As for NSMB2 being a bomb, I'm new to analyzing sales here, but isn't it the fasted selling game on the 3DS ever? What would not be considered a bomb?
---
I'm happy with 3DS sales. Whenever I see non-gamer looking women looking at 3DS's (or playing them on the train), it's with a nice shiny little 3DS, not with an LL. Then of course there's the kids who're begging their parents for a 3DS. I bet lots of them would refuse to go for the "expensive model". I wonder if it will average above 100k until the end of the year.
---
Lastly, I'm thinking of buying a white Vita, but i) I want Game Archives compatibility not only confirmed, but available and ii) they have to start some incentive to buy one soon, right? They can't just stay on course with 8,000 a week, right?
I think the biggest misconception is that people in Japan will buy anything with Dragon Quest on it. This is the lazy man's understanding as to why Dragon Quest games sell. People didn't buy DQIX just because of the name.
Most of the negative reviews on Amazon are complaining that the game is online only. Quite a few reviews say "this game is only for gamers, not for regular Dragon Quest players", meaning that for the millions of people who really only play Dragon Quest every few years, this is the game to skip. People are informed consumers, and are skipping the game because they're not interested in an online game.
As for NSMB2 being a bomb, I'm new to analyzing sales here, but isn't it the fasted selling game on the 3DS ever? What would not be considered a bomb?
---
I'm happy with 3DS sales. Whenever I see non-gamer looking women looking at 3DS's (or playing them on the train), it's with a nice shiny little 3DS, not with an LL. Then of course there's the kids who're begging their parents for a 3DS. I bet lots of them would refuse to go for the "expensive model". I wonder if it will average above 100k until the end of the year.
---
Lastly, I'm thinking of buying a white Vita, but i) I want Game Archives compatibility not only confirmed, but available and ii) they have to start some incentive to buy one soon, right? They can't just stay on course with 8,000 a week, right?
There's clearly still enough people using the Wii to have made the DQX decision worth it. In addition, being able to sell/transition onto Wii U will probably be a big deal for the early life of the Wii U as well as the game itself. That's going to be a great launch(?) purchase for a lot of people.
It probably would have done fine on the PS3 too, but I can't say SE chose "wrong" here. No one can (unless you are talking aout the MMO decision, and even then, as I said, this might make them more money than all the other titles if it stays around).
metalslimer
Member
Uh..no. I think this whole NSMB2 thing needs to be saved for next week. Of course the game will be selling little by little all generation. The thing is that NSMB sold over 6 million so far. If NSMB2 starts selling 20k weekly before the game even reaches 2 million that would be a huge dropoff from the original or even the Wii game. Of course that doesn't make this a flop, but in the same way that many games this generation weren't flops but didn't live up to their expectations.
I'm pretty sure the DS install base was a lot higher at the time? If NSMB2 sold 2 mil right off the bat with only 7 million 3DS's out there, that would (well should) be beyond anyone's expectations.
I bet the NSMB2/3DS ratio will be consistent with the NSMB/DS ratio (is there a word for that?).
I bet the NSMB2/3DS ratio will be consistent with the NSMB/DS ratio (is there a word for that?).
electroplankton
Banned
Maybe I wasn't clear, so I'm formulating again what I've just said: now it's important to sell as many copies as possible, since now Square Enix is earning from the retail release (and a bit from specific merchandising); the higher the userbase, the higher the likelihood more people will pay for the monthly subscription. If Final Fantasy XI started with just 63k on PS2 and then a few year later could achieve a peak of 500k active users (with PC version, expansion, etc.), starting from 420k the first four days is already a nice result, because the LTD will grow for sure, and the game will have a nice userbase to begin with. Then how many people will decide to pay the montly fee is an issue to talk about when the free trial ends and the retail game starts to decline.
metalslimer
Member
It sold over 1.2 million in the first 2 weeks on DS. Maybe I'm remembering wrong but I don't think DS was at 14 million at the time
Edit: Man old threads are blast to read found this:
dacuk
Member
Nah, he will move it to WiiU
electroplankton
Banned
Nope. Mario Kart 7 and Monster Hunter 3G sold a bit more after their second weeks (IIRC, MH3G was released on Saturday as well).
metalslimer
Member
Found it
8,571,596 is what the DS had sold in the first two weeks of NSMB. You can't count the NSMB attach ratio as the same here.
8,571,596 is what the DS had sold in the first two weeks of NSMB. You can't count the NSMB attach ratio as the same here.
I went to the same thread! Shame it didn't have LTD. I checked Wikipedia (as I had no idea where people usually go), and it said that the DS sold 9.24m as of June 30th/2006. So I'm wrong with the ratio.
Still (as I back pedal), anyone assuming similar success to the first is being unrealistic.
Fair enough! I think there's a chance NSMB2 will be the best selling 3DS game by the end of the year.
metalslimer
Member
I went to the same thread! Shame it didn't have LTD. I checked Wikipedia (as I had no idea where people usually go), and it said that the DS sold 9.24m as of June 30th/2006. So I'm wrong with the ratio.
Still (as I back pedal), anyone assuming similar success to the first is being unrealistic.
Fair enough! I think there's a chance NSMB2 will be the best selling 3DS game by the end of the year.
I think it will have a hard time passing MK7 so fast. Especially if 2d Mario sales get split this holiday.
It sold over 1.2 million in the first 2 weeks on DS. Maybe I'm remembering wrong but I don't think DS was at 14 million at the time
Edit: Man old threads are blast to read found this:
[NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) {2006-05-25} 865,024 / 865,024 | NDS LTD 8,389,168
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) {2009-12-03} 936,734 / 936,734 | WII LTD 8,906,104
As posted in the previous sales thread.
The Wii's Mario Bros managed to have around 80,000 (console were 600,000 apart) higher debut thanks to the higher LTD at the time. With the 3DS having have 1.5 million sold than the DS at the time for the New Mario Bros game launch, it's pretty easy to guess that its not going to do as well as the other two at the start. That and we don't have any download information, we have no idea how it did offline. Unlike games like Fire Emblem, Rune Factory and such who don't really need to worry about a higher user base to sell, Mario games tend to do. I really think Christmas is probably the best bet to get an idea on how well this game is going to do in the future.
You know things aren't going well when Sony finally starts admitting some cracks in the dam. (After all these months of the "Vita is selling in-line with our expectations" PR bullshit) - IGN Link
Yoshida told Playstation: The Official Magazine, "We’re having a more difficult time than we had anticipated in terms of getting support from third-party publishers, but that’s our job.”
Not necessarily Japan-centric news, but it fits here. He basically lists the cause as the allure of the social/mobile sector drawing 3rd-parties away from Vita.
Yoshida told Playstation: The Official Magazine, "We’re having a more difficult time than we had anticipated in terms of getting support from third-party publishers, but that’s our job.”
Not necessarily Japan-centric news, but it fits here. He basically lists the cause as the allure of the social/mobile sector drawing 3rd-parties away from Vita.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Active userbase? Let me know when PS3 manages a multimillion seller... that's why DQ went to Wii, the biggest base and the most mainstream base, where hit games can literally sell millions.
DQX uses SE's online structure anyway, all they really needed was an online connection, a USB port and the biggest most "everbody" oriented userbase available. And so far it's working out for them.
smart phones killing traditional handhelds confirmed
metalslimer
Member
The problem I see here is that Sony (crazily) thought they could build their handheld on western 3rd party support to the detriment of falling far behind in the Japanese market. But holy shit at them actually admitting it. I'm more interested than ever in Gamescon and TGS now.
It's important they admit it. Yoshida does, al least.
Father_Brain
Banned
I hope that Yoshida is only referring to Western third parties, because he can't possibly actually believe that 3DS has nothing to do with the poor state of Japanese support thus far.
(Even then, that wouldn't be entirely true - Scribblenauts Unlimited and Mirror of Fate are Western 3DS titles that could have at least been multiplatform gets for Vita - but it'd be a lot more true for the West.)
I think he admits some and leaves out something else, like: 3DS' success eating Vita's arse and a much needed price cut
Yes, of course. But this is at least one step.
I think Yoshida is the more down-to-earth person in Sony. At least among the public people of the company.
You must be new here.
The amazon reviews are being submitted by fanboys or marketing (FUD in this case) firms. Same shit went on with DQ9. The best it can do is convince otherwise clueless users that Amazon's rating system is unreliable. It clearly did little to affect sales as we know from history. I believe at the lowest point review scores were at 1.5 stars.
What WILL be interesting to see is if this convinces Amazon to do more policy/usability revisions. DQ9's reviews made Amazon Japan adopt the 'no reviews prior to release' model for games. Taking it a step further and showing only verified purchase reviews by default may make it a little more relevant.
Yoshida's point about the third party support is spot on. The mobile phone sector has eaten the market that belonged to early PSP, both in the east and the west. GTA for PSP was its big title, but now you can get GTA3 on iPhone for $5. Retro remakes and ports filled PSP's eastern lineup, especially from Capcom - but now SF, Megaman, GnG etc are all available on phones for a fraction of the price. All they have left is the possibility of a Square-Enix title to push the platform, but we know how long those take to develop.
Calling someone out then starting off with a ridiculous statement like that, nice work.
Is it too personal to ask what you work as, and what your gaming tastes are?? I'm just curious lol.
Anyway another point on the whole DQX being an MMO:
It's coming out during times of change for online RPGS, times where a lot of products are moving into a free-to-play format with other forms of revenue.
Does anybody think this will hinder its performance, or that it won't matter in the end?? I think it's going to cut a bitt of its potential, but in the future we will all see this as a good move within the DQ franchise.
Of course, admitting the competition is kicking your ass this early into the lifecycle would be PR suicide.
Edit: Woot! I'm a member now!!
Except he does admit the competition is kicking their ass. Mobile competition, that is.
But it would indeed be bad PR to mention the 3DS. It's just funny how that works. Admitting mobile is eating away at sales is being realistic, whereas admitting the 3DS is doing the same is being defeatist.
In a way it's like he's indirectly acknowledging that the 3DS and Vita are kind of "in it together" against mobile. But he does this by not acknowledging the 3DS.
eighty(one)
Member
I was just going to ask that same question. Pre-NSMB2/Oni-Training, the retail cap was stocked to the brim with D/L cards. I wonder how those same sections are looking, currently?
I have a feeling a nice chunk of users probably opted for a digital Mario purchase. Maybe not 20 or 30%, but maybe 7-13% of retail sales were the cards? Seems reasonable, right?
Of course, the above is just my speculation.... ^_^
I also wanted to touch on your earlier point, about NSMB2 being tailored to kickstart western sales. I would agree that is highly possible. It's a type of game that will have long legs, selling millions (in each territory) over the next few years. However, I think the west needs it now, so Nintendo made it happen. Accelerated development and primed it for a lead in to holiday to carry other key titles...
We'll see how it does, I do see it being really successful in both the East and West.
Yeah, i think in a way i tried to say this.. but it came out totally wrong. But yeah i meant direct competition as in "dedicated handheld gaming device".
I don't think the strategy is to sell a DQ to MMO players but to sell an MMO to DQ players. In the official thread Parakeet has stressed that this is a DQ first, MMO second. SE also went to great lengths to make the hurdles associated with this type of game as small as possible.
A lot of DQ fans are holding off buying this game but when their friends who did can convince them that their concerns are unfounded they still might buy it in the end.
Especially with kids I can imagine that all the boys (and girls) in any one class will want to hang out at the one or two kids' houses who have it and then go back nagging their parents to buy it too. Great build up for Wii U also.
I think SE wants to build a large user base with kid's hours and is counting on that enough of the user base will also pay for subscriptions now and then. Ideally this should be a mixture of large scale DQ success and smaller but more long term subscription income.
Regulus Tera
Romanes Eunt Domus
I wasn't even aware either of these games were already out.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
why ?
FF11 is the most profitable FF to date and i'll spank my own arse in Woolworths window to a watching throng of people if DQX isn't basically running on a modified FF11 engine.
Sub cash - as long as it keeps coming in - will be significant.
Seems like a good move - modify an existing MMO's engine and set up/infra - hey presto!
Plus - i have a sneaking feeling that this isn't going to stay on the Wii/Wii U - i suspect we're going to see it hit the PC -at least-.
(P.s. sales look great for an MMO - way above what i was expecting , regardless of it being a Dragon Quest game)
electroplankton
Banned
July's best-selling games
01. [NDS] Pokemon Black/White 2 855,502 / 2,474,123
02. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 430,185 / NEW
03. [WII] Kirbys Dream Collection 131,720 / NEW
04. [3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV 121,401 / NEW
05. [PS3] Persona 4 Arena 117,318 / NEW
06. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Chibi Dragon to Fushigina Orb 116,867 / NEW
07. [3DS] Rune Factory 4 107,513 / NEW
08. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terrys Wonderland 3D 104,850 / 848,817
09. [PSP] Digimon World Reigitize 103,345 / NEW
10. [3DS] Danball Senki Baku Boost 96,196 / NEW
01. [NDS] Pokemon Black/White 2 855,502 / 2,474,123
02. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 430,185 / NEW
03. [WII] Kirbys Dream Collection 131,720 / NEW
04. [3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV 121,401 / NEW
05. [PS3] Persona 4 Arena 117,318 / NEW
06. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Chibi Dragon to Fushigina Orb 116,867 / NEW
07. [3DS] Rune Factory 4 107,513 / NEW
08. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terrys Wonderland 3D 104,850 / 848,817
09. [PSP] Digimon World Re
igitize 103,345 / NEW10. [3DS] Danball Senki Baku Boost 96,196 / NEW
Opus Angelorum
Member
Damn. When are we expecting a Pokemon title on the 3DS?
BassForever
Member
Opus Angelorum
Member
Likely to sell gang busters?
lol dude, u just don't quit do u?
electroplankton
Banned
Inazuma Eleven 1+2+3 for 3DS, November 15, priced 5800 yen. Will it sell? I say so.
slaughterking
Member
I wonder if that means that IE Go 2 wont make it this year.
I remember IEGo2 being slated for this Winter.
electroplankton
Banned
Actually, I do think that's a good way to bring the userbase on 3DS even more; it's 6 games priced as one.
slaughterking
Member
You're right.
Well, it's really just three games. The rest is window dressing.
Still, this could be a little more Western (European) oriented move: bringing the fanbase to 3DS with all the other games already released AND the yet-to-be-released Inazuma Eleven 3, in order to launch then IEGo in European countries.