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[bgassassin]

What I *suspect* might happen/might be happening right now is Wii U/PS3 development is pumping up, with an eye towards eventually dropping the PS3 when the PS4 comes out.

For the next 2 years I think most HD projects will at the very least have Wii U/PS3 versions.

I give it one year or however long it takes PS4 to launch tops. I think Japanese devs bail on PS3 as soon as possible

Some statistics (all Famitsu)

PS2 in its first 4 weeks sold more software than Vita in its first 8 months
GBA in its first 2 weeks sold 85% of software Vita sold its first 7 months
GCN in its first 7 months sold 2,5 times more software than Vita for the same period
XBX in its first 8 months sold 50% of software Vita sold at the same period

After 7 months in 2012 3DS has sold more software than the entire 2011
3DS is the top software seller this year with more than 30% share, Vita less than 5%, 360 has half software sales of Vita

NDS has sold more software than PSP this year

Oh dear.

You are righ, one last. Wii releases at first half were exactly 2, Kiki Trick And Mario Party 9.

H1 Wii software sales = 2,5 x Vita

What Cipherr said.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

It probably has the highest number of big sellers in the last quarter. 3DS will have bigger sellers (AC) but not as many of them.

Yakuza 5
WE 2013
Tales of Xilia 2
Hokuto Musou 2
Resident Evil 6

Well, it also depends on what's the initial WiiU line up and unannounced Q4 3DS releases.

On a related note, talking about big third parties, only S-E seems to be missing from the Q4 PS3 train. Sega, Konami, Bandai Namco, Tecmo Koei and Capcom are all releasing potential huge sellers.

3DS may match it in number too really.

Animal Crossing: Jump Out
Paper Mario: Sticker Star
Style Savvy: Trendsetters
Professor Layton Versus Ace Attorney
Inazuma Eleven Go 2

Those are all likely 400k+ sellers, all confirmed for 2012, similar to your PS3 list. I'd also say Level 5 is missing from the PS3 list of big 3rd parties.

 

[schuelma]

It probably has the highest number of big sellers in the last quarter. 3DS will have bigger sellers (AC) but not as many of them.

Yakuza 5
WE 2013
Tales of Xilia 2
Hokuto Musou 2
Resident Evil 6

Well, it also depends on what's the initial WiiU line up and unannounced Q4 3DS releases.

On a related note, talking about big third parties, only S-E seems to be missing from the Q4 PS3 train. Sega, Konami, Bandai Namco, Tecmo Koei and Capcom are all releasing potential huge sellers.

That is a pretty nice lineup. Will be interesting to see what Nintendo has in store.

 

[Alrus]

3DS may match it in number too really.

Animal Crossing: Jump Out
Paper Mario: Sticker Star
Style Savvy: Trendsetters
Professor Layton Versus Ace Attorney
Inazuma Eleven Go 2

Those are all likely 400k+ sellers, all confirmed for 2012, similar to your PS3 list. I'd also say Level 5 is missing from the PS3 list of big 3rd parties.

Layton Vs AA is a 2012 game? I didn't know that... Also Style Savvy is in no way guaranteed to sell over 400k.

 

[Takao]

There's also HSG6 for PS3. But that's more a "long tail to 400k" kind of game.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Layton Vs AA is a 2012 game? I didn't know that... Also Style Savvy is in no way guaranteed to sell over 400k.

First one did ~900k. I know the market's a bit different now than in 2008/2009, but I wouldn't rule out higher sales for it.

 

[Spiegel]

That is a pretty nice lineup. Will be interesting to see what Nintendo has in store.

Yeah, and I forgot to list the Super Robot Wars game.

 

[Madao]

First one did ~900k. I know the market's a bit different now than in 2008/2009, but I wouldn't rule out higher sales for it.

maybe it will do like Freddy vs Jason in the box office and sell more than what the individual parts do on their own.

 

[timetokill]

You are righ, one last. Wii releases at first half were exactly 2, Kiki Trick And Mario Party 9.

H1 Wii software sales = 2,5 x Vita

Hahahahaha oh god damn that is ridiculous

 

[Takao]

maybe it will do like Freddy vs Jason in the box office and sell more than what the individual parts do on their own.

He was talking about Style Savvy, not any Layton or Ace Attorney games.

 

[schuelma]

You know, just from what we know of Nintendo's first party efforts, Wii U could have some massive selling titles right from the start.

NSMB U and Wii Fit U are successors to the best selling console games of last generation.

Pikmin is a 500K or so seller, or was on Gamecube.

Nintendoland is the wildcard, but that seems tailor made for huge success in Japan.

That looks like 3 million plus sellers easily.

 

[grimshawish]

Pikmin is a 500K or so seller, or was on Gamecube.

Been a while since Pikmin 2 though, it could do quite a bit worse or end up taking off.
I don't think its past performance can really be used as an expectation.

 

[Tenki]

You are righ, one last. Wii releases at first half were exactly 2, Kiki Trick And Mario Party 9.

H1 Wii software sales = 2,5 x Vita

It's just sad.

 

[Father_Brain]

The point is that if there's money to be made with little effort, third parties will do it. Wii U is an easy port machine. Most multiplatform titles last gen didn't come to the Wii because it simply lacked the architecture to be ported to, it'd be too expensive and just a waste of time, because of this it never had the userbase that most third parties needed. COD might not have been an easy port, but it was still a slap job and its a big enough of a franchise that didn't need the userbase that smaller franchises needed to justify a port, so it was still able to recoup the costs of a port.

While I don't dispute that PS4/Durango titles should be much easier to graphically port down to Wii U than PS3/360 titles were on Wii, I think your implicit assumption that specs are the primary, overwhelming reason why a platform would be ruled out for multiplatform titles is a bit naive. There are other significant reasons, including the costs of redesigning a game's interface to accomodate the GamePad, and (especially, I suspect) publishers' presumption about the demographics and size of Wii U's audience and its overlap, or lack thereof, with the target demographics for their software.

 

[ffdgh]

Some statistics (all Famitsu)

PS2 in its first 4 weeks sold more software than Vita in its first 8 months
GBA in its first 2 weeks sold 85% of software Vita sold its first 7 months
GCN in its first 7 months sold 2,5 times more software than Vita for the same period
XBX in its first 8 months sold 50% of software Vita sold at the same period

After 7 months in 2012 3DS has sold more software than the entire 2011
3DS is the top software seller this year with more than 30% share, Vita less than 5%, 360 has half software sales of Vita

NDS has sold more software than PSP this year

.....ouch

 

[watershed]

You know, just from what we know of Nintendo's first party efforts, Wii U could have some massive selling titles right from the start.

NSMB U and Wii Fit U are successors to the best selling console games of last generation.

Pikmin is a 500K or so seller, or was on Gamecube.

Nintendoland is the wildcard, but that seems tailor made for huge success in Japan.

That looks like 3 million plus sellers easily.

I'm not sure how many consumers are still interested in Wii Fit like games or more accurately, willing to buy new hardware just for that experience. It think it will be like Nintendogs and Brain Training 3ds. Solid but a dramatic drop off from past entries.

 

[airmangataosenai]

.....ouch

It isn't really as bad as people are trying to make it sound, at least on the software side. The reason software is low is because of the lack of games. There haven't ever been any real bombs on the Vita yet and with the one mid-profile game it has gotten doing as well as it did, I doubt that the situation will get any worse. With Miku out next week and poised to potentially have the biggest debut to date for the series (Or at minimum, top Extend), we could see things start to turn around finally.

 

[Takao]

It isn't really as bad as people are trying to make it sound, at least on the software side. The reason software is low is because of the lack of games. There haven't ever been any real bombs on the Vita yet and with the one mid-profile game it has gotten doing as well as it did, I doubt that the situation will get any worse. With Miku out next week and poised to potentially have the biggest debut to date for the series (Or at minimum, top Extend), we could see things start to turn around finally.

I highly doubt Project Diva f will have the highest debut in the series' history.

 

[The Horror the horror]

I'm not sure how many consumers are still interested in Wii Fit like games or more accurately, willing to buy new hardware just for that experience. It think it will be like Nintendogs and Brain Training 3ds. Solid but a dramatic drop off from past entries.

I'm surprised that Nintendo isn't releasing a brand new IP specifically tailored toward non-gamers. Last generation, we saw the introduction of Wii Fit, Wii Music, Wii Sports, Brain Age, Nintendogs, etc.; however, we have heard very little to nothing with respect to fresh franchises aimed at the casual market.

 

[ohlawd]

Pikmin is a 500K or so seller, or was on Gamecube.

Gosh I really hope Pikmin 3 sells like 3 million WW when the dust settles (dunno... 2-3 years after release?)

Pikmin 2 was just brilliant and I have no doubt Pikmin 3 will top it in quality. One of my favorite Nintendo IPs.

 

[disco]

I'm surprised that Nintendo isn't releasing a brand new IP specifically tailored toward non-gamers. Last generation, we saw the introduction of Wii Fit, Wii Music, Wii Sports, Brain Age, Nintendogs, etc.; however, we have heard very little to nothing with respect to fresh titles aimed at the casual market.

I feel as though Nintendo have run out of ideas. All of those ideas were fantastic - and obvious; except Brain Training. Otherwise they we're all pretty guessable ideas for their respective hardware. I wonder why Wii Relax never came out. Maybe the pulse peripheral wasn't sensitive enough?

 

[schuelma]

I'm surprised that Nintendo isn't releasing a brand new IP specifically tailored toward non-gamers. Last generation, we saw the introduction of Wii Fit, Wii Music, Wii Sports, Brain Age, Nintendogs, etc.; however, we have heard very little to nothing with respect to fresh franchises aimed at the casual market.

While I kind of get your point, Nintendoland is definitely directed towards the casual market.

 

[schuelma]

Been a while since Pikmin 2 though, it could do quite a bit worse or end up taking off.
I don't think its past performance can really be used as an expectation.

Not an expectation, but a starting point. Have to start somewhere.

 

[airmangataosenai]

I highly doubt Project Diva f will have the highest debut in the series' history.

Perhaps it won't, especially with hardware bundles and digital copies eating into the MC figures next week. At the same time however, Miku has been a fixture on the Amazon chart since it became available so we'll see.

If I have to make a guess, I'd say around 200k FW is a fair estimate.

Miku is not going to be the savior for a system's software sales. Not by a long shot.

Again, Miku is the very first "Major" release for the Vita. Sega will be watching it closely and should it meet or exceed expectations they'll be more likely to follow it up. It performing well would give them and possibly other devs/pubs a reason to revise their stance on the platform (Moving from nothing, to something). No one's using the word "savior" here but you.

 

[jman2050]

It isn't really as bad as people are trying to make it sound, at least on the software side. The reason software is low is because of the lack of games. There haven't ever been any real bombs on the Vita yet and with the one mid-profile game it has gotten doing as well as it did, I doubt that the situation will get any worse. With Miku out next week and poised to potentially have the biggest debut to date for the series (Or at minimum, top Extend), we could see things start to turn around finally.

Miku is not going to be the savior for a system's software sales. Not by a long shot.

 

[The Horror the horror]

While I kind of get your point, Nintendoland is definitely directed towards the casual market.

Except Nintendoland is a mini-game collection based on existing hardcore IPs. I don't consider the Mario Party or Smash Brothers franchises, albeit very accessible, aimed exclusively at the casual market, but the likes of Nintendogs, Brain Age, and Wii Fit are, IMO.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

It isn't really as bad as people are trying to make it sound, at least on the software side. The reason software is low is because of the lack of games. There haven't ever been any real bombs on the Vita yet and with the one mid-profile game it has gotten doing as well as it did, I doubt that the situation will get any worse. With Miku out next week and poised to potentially have the biggest debut to date for the series (Or at minimum, top Extend), we could see things start to turn around finally.

You put too much faith on Miku, lol.

 

[Nekki]

It isn't really as bad as people are trying to make it sound, at least on the software side. The reason software is low is because of the lack of games. There haven't ever been any real bombs on the Vita yet and with the one mid-profile game it has gotten doing as well as it did, I doubt that the situation will get any worse. With Miku out next week and poised to potentially have the biggest debut to date for the series (Or at minimum, top Extend), we could see things start to turn around finally.

But it IS really as bad as people make it sound.

 

[terrisus]

Again, Miku is the very first "Major" release for the Vita.

Persona 4: Golden doesn't count?

 

[Takao]

I will eat something gross if Miku f debuts near 200k.


Note: I find many things gross so this could be like bologna or something.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Persona 4: Golden doesn't count?

The fact that people are counting a PS2 port as a major release illustrates my point better than anything else could. Portable Persona before P4G didn't even always crack 100k FW and yet at the time of it's release it was for and away the most high profile release the system had ever had. Miku is the first decently budgeted third party game made from the ground up for Vita.

 

[Takao]

The fact that people are counting a PS2 port as a major release illustrates my point better than anything else could. Portable Persona before P4G didn't even always crack 100k FW and yet at the time of it's release it was for and away the most high profile release the system had ever had. Miku is the first decently budgeted third party game made from the ground up for Vita.

The problem with Miku is the looming PS3 port ...

 

[Boney]

200k first week is crazy. LTD seems more like it.

 

[jman2050]

The problem with Miku is that it's a low-to-mid-tier software seller at best.

 

[airmangataosenai]

The problem with Miku is the looming PS3 port ...

Looming? AFAIK it doesn't even have a release date.

 

[Erethian]

Miku has been a fixture on the Amazon chart since it became available so we'll see.

If we're going to be using Amazon chart rankings we might as well use Comgnet, which points to Diva F having a worse debut than Project Mirai.

Now I don't see that happening (though who knows with Vita software), but doing less than the PSP entries is a pretty fair bet considering the state of play at the moment.

 

[donny2112]

It isn't really as bad as people are trying to make it sound, at least on the software side.

Yes, it is. Maybe you missed Chris1964's posts a little higher up. Take the time to read them (for the first time apparently).

The reason software is low is because of the lack of games.

Overall, mostly, but doesn't explain individual game's performance. Very poor hardware sales does a good job explaining that, though.

There haven't ever been any real bombs on the Vita yet

If that were true we probably would've 1) not been seeing a Minna no Golf 6 PS3 port, 2) been hearing more about the other Tales remakes hinted at with Tales of Innocence R, and 3) seen PSV MGS HD handily outsell the generally lambasted MGS3D on 3DS. Since none of those things happened, it's pretty safe to say that there's been bombs on Vita.

the one mid-profile game it has gotten doing as well as it did,

*insert discussion of Persona Arena's sales indicating a quite possibly even more lucrative sales source if Golden leaves Vita*

I doubt that the situation will get any worse.

It'd be hard to get worse without outright cancelling the system, but with the known lineup it has coming, it may still be possible.

With Miku out next week and poised to potentially have the biggest debut to date for the series

:lol

On the smallest userbase? Comgnet isn't useful for general stuff, but it seems to be pretty good at repeat core series, and from Mpl90's posts, it's not looking anything like "the biggest debut to date for the series."

we could see things start to turn around finally.

Turn around, as in "save" the Vita?

No one's using the word "savior" here but you.

*nods head*

 

[MasterSheen]

Project Diva 2nd's FW was 240k. It's definitely not topping that.

 

[saichi]

At the same time however, Miku has been a fixture on the Amazon chart since it became available so we'll see.

If I have to make a guess, I'd say around 200k FW is a fair estimate.

Miku is the first decently budgeted third party game made from the ground up for Vita.

Yet it's tracking lower than P4G and P4G didn't open with 200K FW. How do you expect it to open higher than P4G?

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

Yet it's tracking lower than P4G and P4G didn't open with 200K FW. How do you expect it to open higher than P4G?

I doubt a Miku game would get more preorders than a Persona game, not that COMG is the end-all be-all for FW sales either.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Minna no Golf being ported to PS3 wouldn't really imply failure in my book considering that there seldom is a game that Sony leaves on portables alone.

Tales of Innocence R: We haven't really heard anything one way or the other. I don't see why you're expecting to hear about future plans before TGS when we didn't know about the game before TGS last year.

MGS: Fair enough saying this one underperformed. Bomb seems like an exaggeration considering how little was put into it though, along with both being a late port and stripped of content from the console release.

And to the other guy comparing pre-orders for Persona and Miku: Project Diva 2nd debuted higher than Persona 3 and 4. We can't say for sure how many of those were preorders but it's pretty likely that there were more, especially with the way the game dropped so rapidly in the second week.

 

[Boney]

Minna no Golf being ported to PS3 wouldn't really imply failure in my book considering that there seldom is a game that Sony leaves on portables alone.

But HS6 is the worst performing game in the series by a lot except for Minna no Golf Online on ps2 :/

http://garaph.info/gamesearch.php?t...d1=&sltd2=&gameid=&orderby=&res1=&res2=&opt=1

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Minna no Golf being ported to PS3 wouldn't really imply failure in my book considering that there seldom is a game that Sony leaves on portables alone.

This is the first time ever that Japan Studio's ported a handheld game back to consoles. It really isn't an encoraging precedent for Vita.

Tales of Innocence R: We haven't really heard anything one way or the other. I don't see why you're expecting to hear about future plans before TGS when we didn't know about the game before TGS last year.

Innocence R bombed hard, but I don't think the non-announcement of Hearts R means gears have shifted quite yet. I agree TGS is the likely place to expect it.

MGS: Fair enough saying this one underperformed. Bomb seems like an exaggeration considering how little was put into it though, along with both being a late port and stripped of content from the console release.

It's content equal in Japan though. I'd say the Vita ZOE HD Collection going suddenly m.i.a. is pretty discouraging too, is Kojima Productions getting cold feet?

 

[saichi]

I doubt a Miku game would get more preorders than a Persona game, not that COMG is the end-all be-all for FW sales either.

probably more reliable than the Amazon chart. Besides, Miku game is pretty front loaded as well.

 

[Father_Brain]

It's content equal in Japan though. I'd say the Vita ZOE HD Collection going suddenly m.i.a. is pretty discouraging too, is Kojima Productions getting cold feet?

TBH, I wouldn't be that surprised if Vita is mysteriously absent the next time KojiPro discusses platforms for Fox Engine, which might be as soon as this week.

 

[electroplankton]

Again, Miku is the very first "Major" release for the Vita. Sega will be watching it closely and should it meet or exceed expectations they'll be more likely to follow it up. It performing well would give them and possibly other devs/pubs a reason to revise their stance on the platform (Moving from nothing, to something). No one's using the word "savior" here but you.

So you think that developers and publishers will start to work on Vita just seeing Miku performance on Vita, that will be 100% lower than PSP entries?

 

[Mr Swine]

So you think that developers and publishers will start to work on Vita just seeing Miku performance on Vita, that will be 100% lower than PSP entries?

And didnt people buy vita games only to sell them after completing it? (didn't that happen to Persona 4 or was I dreaming?)

 

[electroplankton]

And didnt people buy vita games only to sell them after completing it? (didn't that happen to Persona 4 or was I dreaming?)

It's difficult to know to what extent this happened. We know a lot of people did so with 360 and Blue Dragon but I don't think we're near that situation with Vita.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

It's difficult to know to what extent this happened. We know a lot of people did so with 360 and Blue Dragon but I don't think we're near that situation with Vita.

Wasn't there some images of a store that had a ton of pre-owned games on the shelf? Can't remember which game.

 

[Fisico]

Tales of Innocence R: We haven't really heard anything one way or the other. I don't see why you're expecting to hear about future plans before TGS when we didn't know about the game before TGS last year.

We have

KoT: Tales of Innocence was remade for the PlayStation Vita as Tales of Innocence R. The game holds many clues about future remakes for Tempest and Hearts as well. Yet, there hasn’t been any info about those games ever since. Does it have anything to do with the poor sales of the Vita?

Y: As you know, Tales of the Tempest, Tales of Innocence and Tales of Hearts were released on Nintendo DS. We would indeed like to remake those games, but we have to reconsider our projects for now. As you said, the PS Vita isn’t selling well, and we are now waiting a little longer to make sure we take the best decision.

Innocence R was a complete bomb (70k), selling worse than the shittiest spin-off the series ever has on PSP (Twin Braves 110k).

And because of that, Radiant Mythology 4 probably won't be released in 2013

KoT: About handheld consoles, the last entry in the Radiant Mythology series is Radiant Mythology 3, and we’re sure we can expect a fourth game. The PSP is at the end of its life term, the PS Vita isn’t selling very well, and the 3DS does not look like the favorite console for Tales fans. Which console would you like to develop Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 4 on?

Y: This is a difficult question and I can hardly answer that now. What you’ve said about those three consoles is true, and our developers for the RM series have been used to develop on the PSP. I suppose they will have to change their habits for the next episode.