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Nintendo 1H 2012 results - $367M operating loss, 5.06M 3DS, 5.5M Wii U forecast

J

Jo Shishido's Cheeks

Member
Regarding the discussions of disparities between 3DS releases in Japan and elsewhere, this should make it clear that the gap isn't quite as large as many may suspect:


Nintendo Published 3DS Titles

2011

FEB- Nintendogs + Cats
APR- Pilotwings Resort
MAY- Steel Diver
JUN- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
JUL- Star Fox 64 3D
AUG- Super Pokemon Rumble
SEP- The 3D Illustrated Encyclopaedia of Flora and Fauna
NOV- Super Mario 3D Land
DEC- Mario Kart 7

2012

JAN- Spirit Camera: The Cursed Memoir
MAR- Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games / Kid Icarus: Uprising
APR- Fire Emblem: Awakening
MAY- Mario Tennis Open
JUN- Culdcept
JUL- Calciobit: Pocket Soccer League / New Super Mario Bros. 2 / Dr. Kawashima's Devilish Brain Training
SEP- New Art Academy / Style Boutique: Trendsetters
NOV- Animal Crossing: Jump Out / Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Magna Gate and the Infinite Labyrinth


Is the onus on Nintendo of Japan to decide localisation schedules for other territories?
 
S

StreetsAhead

Member
Jo Shishido's Cheeks said:
Regarding the discussions of disparities between 3DS releases in Japan and elsewhere, this should make it clear that the gap isn't quite as large as many may suspect:


Nintendo Published 3DS Titles

2011

FEB- Nintendogs + Cats
APR- Pilotwings Resort
MAY- Steel Diver
JUN- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
JUL- Star Fox 64 3D
AUG- Super Pokemon Rumble
SEP- The 3D Illustrated Encyclopaedia of Flora and Fauna
NOV- Super Mario 3D Land
DEC- Mario Kart 7

2012

JAN- Spirit Camera: The Cursed Memoir
MAR- Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games / Kid Icarus: Uprising
APR- Fire Emblem: Awakening
MAY- Mario Tennis Open
JUN- Culdcept
JUL- Calciobit: Pocket Soccer League / New Super Mario Bros. 2 / Dr. Kawashima's Devilish Brain Training
SEP- New Art Academy / Style Boutique: Trendsetters
NOV- Animal Crossing: Jump Out / Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Magna Gate and the Infinite Labyrinth


Is the onus on Nintendo of Japan to decide localisation schedules for other territories?
Click to expand...

4 unannounced (as yet) games for outside of Japan. Apart from Pokemon they're pretty niche. Pokemon will be localised too, only a matter of time.
To be fair, I think people are generally talking about 3rd party games like Monster Hunter 3 G (announced), Bravely Default, Fantasy Life, Dragon's Quest Monsters and so on. And maybe engaging in a bit of hyperbole.
 
J

jcm

Member
GavinGT said:
Like the poster above said, DS had two western holidays in its first 7 quarters compared to 3DS's one. So it's an unfair comparison, but one that 3DS is winning nonetheless.

Your original argument was that 3DS was falling behind and about to fall behind further. But they haven't fallen behind yet. And you point me to Nintendo's future forecast as evidence of this?

And even if 3DS does fall behind DS, it's perpetually one holiday behind. Until it's fallen behind by 5-8 million, I don't think what you're saying has merit.
Click to expand...

Looking at comparable LTDs obscures his point, which is that at this point in the 3DSs lifespan, it is selling much worse than the comparable point in the DS's lifespan. In the first half of the DSs third year they sold 9.99M. In the first half of the 3DSs third year they sold 5.06M.

The TTM comparison looks better, because the 3DS's last holiday was much better than then DS's comparable holiday. But unless 3DS sales really pick up, the TTM comparisons are going to be brutal really soon.


radioheadrule83 said:
I'd like to see a launch aligned graph of 3DS' progress against DS, PSP and Vita.
Click to expand...
Why? What do you think we would learn from that?
 
R

radioheadrule83

Banned
I'd like to see a launch aligned graph of 3DS' progress against DS, PSP and Vita. It would probably need major holidays marked though, given 3DS missed one in major territories at launch... maybe price drops and new models too.
 
S

StreetsAhead

Member
jcm said:
Looking at comparable LTDs obscures his point, which is that at this point in the 3DSs lifespan, it is selling much worse than the comparable point in the DS's lifespan. In the first half of the DSs third year they sold 9.99M. In the first half of the 3DSs third year they sold 5.06M.

The TTM comparison looks better, because the 3DS's last holiday was much better than then DS's comparable holiday. But unless 3DS sales really pick up, the TTM comparisons are going to be brutal really soon.
Click to expand...

I don't think year means what you think it means...

EDIT: Unless you mean financial years...
 
B

Broken Hope

Member
I can't see the 3DS doing as well this holiday compared to last for the simple fact the 3DS doesn't really have any games this holiday, at least in the EU.
 
P

Pociask

Member
AniHawk said:
their $39.99 games are keeping tons of people away. even if they do buy the system, they're not buying much software for it. there's about 4-5 nintendo games above 500k in the united states, and then the next closest thing are a handful of games selling 250k-300k. that is terrible considering these games are traditionally strong on nintendo brands (sonic, lego, kingdom hearts, etc).

the $169.99 price tag is a huge barrier too. at the very least, it needs to be $149.99 next year, especially since there's no signs of a savior in the near-future, and i doubt animal crossing will do the trick.

and the problem is less about how they're fucking up the 3ds and more about how the dedicated handheld market is being fucked overall. if nintendo had gotten a grip and stuck with its formula in the handheld world, they'd probably be making some good money off a portable dreamcast with an emphasis on 2d games and some gimmick. and even if it meant the vita was where it was now, there'd be an argument that people want dedicated handhelds to stick around. right now it looks like consumers are pretty lukewarm to the idea in the united states and europe.

next gen, nintendo may give dedicated handheld gaming another go, but it'll be from a weakened position.
Click to expand...

Agree on all fronts. Hell, the DS was a sales monster, but was it the two screens or the amazing software? I think Nintendo would have been better off going to a single screen handheld (ditch 3D while you're at it) that produced graphics somewhere between the Dreamcast and the Gamecube. Make that thing a haven for video games - retail games priced 20-30 dollars, and while we're dreaming, a Steam powered eShop, with reasonably priced Virtual Console selections (Urban Champion starting at .99 cents, GBA and Super Nintendo Games from 3-10 bucks).

Ah well. Maybe next generation.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
How does the Wii U shipment number through March compare with Wii's first Nov-March?
 
E

Exterminieren

Banned
Broken Hope said:
I can't see the 3DS doing as well this holiday compared to last for the simple fact the 3DS doesn't really have any games this holiday, at least in the EU.
Click to expand...

Not sure about this one. Layton and Paper Mario will push hardware; particularly Layton. Yeah, no records will be broken, but I might argue that it's a better lineup for European tastes than the NA lineup for NA tastes.
 
G

grimshawish

Banned
Layton will be pretty big for some people and sell hardware, even if its down on previous entries to the series. Paper Mario should do well too; plus all those other games are still on sale and were going into the first holiday with the XL.

I think it would be stronger with something else in there, but there are a few smaller releases to keep the shelves filled.

Moshi Monsters is also coming out for the 3DS; whislt a DS version is available, things like Streetpass could really sell the 3DS.
 
G

GavinGT

Banned
jcm said:
Looking at comparable LTDs obscures his point, which is that at this point in the 3DSs lifespan, it is selling much worse than the comparable point in the DS's lifespan. In the first half of the DSs third year they sold 9.99M. In the first half of the 3DSs third year they sold 5.06M.

The TTM comparison looks better, because the 3DS's last holiday was much better than then DS's comparable holiday. But unless 3DS sales really pick up, the TTM comparisons are going to be brutal really soon.
Click to expand...

I still think it's rather alarmist to be worried because it sold less in one six month period. It's still ahead overall and about to hit a holiday, and it did 8.36 million last holiday.
 
McHuj

McHuj

Member
If they're only forcasting 5.5M WiiU's through Q1, I imagine that they will be very supply constrained and may not be that easy to get one until spring/summer because I think they could easily sell more at launch.
 
J

jcm

Member
StreetsAhead said:
Ok, well, doesn't counting by fiscal years obscure the number of quarters its been available for purchase?
Click to expand...

Yes, it does. Do you think that makes a material difference? We're two years in. Launch effects are over. We are comparing two machines in the middle part of their life cycle.

GavinGT said:
I still think it's rather alarmist to be worried because it sold less in one six month period. It's still ahead overall and about to hit a holiday, and it did 8.36 million last holiday.
Click to expand...

You appear to have entirely missed my point.
 
G

GavinGT

Banned
jcm said:
You appear to have entirely missed my point.
Click to expand...

No, I didn't. A single six month period doesn't spell success or failure. One could have looked at the same numbers after last Christmas and concluded that 3DS would easily stay abreast of the DS in sales.
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
grimshawish said:
Layton will be pretty big for some people and sell hardware, even if its down on previous entries to the series. Paper Mario should do well too; plus all those other games are still on sale and were going into the first holiday with the XL.

I think it would be stronger with something else in there, but there are a few smaller releases to keep the shelves filled.

Moshi Monsters is also coming out for the 3DS; whislt a DS version is available, things like Streetpass could really sell the 3DS.
Click to expand...

I could easily see the possibility of moshi monsters being the biggest selling game coming up this year on 3ds in the uk
 
G

grimshawish

Banned
frankie_baby said:
I could easily see the possibility of moshi monsters being the biggest selling game coming up this year on 3ds in the uk
Click to expand...

If there wasn't a DS version of the new game, I'd agree. But it'll sell big when we take both systems into account; 3DS selling 'decently'. DS will be a monster though; much like the first game has been.
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
grimshawish said:
If there wasn't a DS version of the new game, I'd agree. But it'll sell big when we take both systems into account; 3DS selling 'decently'. DS will be a monster though; much like the first game has been.
Click to expand...

True the ds version existing will cut down its potential but I could see if parents are buying a 3ds for their kids for Xmas that will be the game they pick up with it
 
J

jcm

Member
GavinGT said:
No, I didn't. A single six month period doesn't spell success or failure. One could have looked at the same numbers after last Christmas and concluded that 3DS would easily stay abreast of the DS in sales.
Click to expand...

Hell, one could have looked at the first quarter and concluded the 3ds would sell much better. Or one could join us here in October 2012 and discuss what's happening now.
 
G

GavinGT

Banned
jcm said:
Hell, one could have looked at the first quarter and concluded the 3ds would sell much better. Or one could join us here in October 2012 and discuss what's happening now.
Click to expand...

My point is that you're assigning more value to two quarters of sales data than to seven quarters of sales data. Sometimes there are anomalies.
 
A

AntMurda

Member
Why are they posting another loss? Their products are selling moderately well, are they just overcasting sales and failing to meet unrealistic demands?
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
GavinGT said:
My point is that you're assigning more value to two quarters of sales data than to seven quarters of sales data. Sometimes there are anomalies.
Click to expand...

The point is that 3DS NEEDS an anomaly if it's to keep up with the DS in the post-DS lite boom. That may still happen beyond Christmas but so far there's no signs of how.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
AntMurda said:
Why are they posting another loss? Their products are selling moderately well, are they just overcasting sales and failing to meet unrealistic demands?
Click to expand...

1) Yen disparity with other currencies still
2) Them manufacturing Wii Us with no way to sell them right now (they are currently spending the money to make all these consoles and making 0 profit on them)
3) Reall just a lack of big Nintendo releases outside of NSMB2 (which is doing ok, but probably not as well as they wanted)

Edit: People the 3DS has no shot of keeping up with the DS Lite coming up. Pokemon won't be out until at earliest spring 2014 at that's the only thing that could do it. It's really not even worth discussing because it's obvious that in the end the 3DS won't sell 150 million units.
 
J

jcm

Member
GavinGT said:
My point is that you're assigning more value to two quarters of sales data than to seven quarters of sales data. Sometimes there are anomalies.
Click to expand...

Yes, I am. I think recent performance is more likely to be illuminating than older performance. I think the 3ds selling half of what the ds sold over a comparable six month period is unlikely to be an aberration, and is more likely indicative that the 3ds is not another ds. I think comparing LTDs to get an idea of future performance is dumb.

I'm not saying Nintendo is doomed, or the 3ds is a failure. I'm saying investors ought to be considering what Nintendo looks like without a huge, monster handheld.
 
S

Somnid

Member
Graphics Horse said:
The point is that 3DS NEEDS an anomaly if it's to keep up with the DS in the post-DS lite boom. That may still happen beyond Christmas but so far there's no signs of how.
Click to expand...

I think pretty much everyone is not expecting it to keep pace with the DS, not in the current market. The closest anomaly would be Sony taking the Vita out back, clearing lingering handheld developers to drop everything they have on 3DS and making valuable shelf space.
 
K

Kazerei

Banned
Graphics Horse said:
The point is that 3DS NEEDS an anomaly if it's to keep up with the DS in the post-DS lite boom. That may still happen beyond Christmas but so far there's no signs of how.
Click to expand...

I agree that next fiscal year, 3DS is going to seriously fall behind unless something drastic happens. But looking at this fiscal year, 3DS hasn't fallen behind just yet, despite a very slow first half. And Nintendo is forecasting the second half will be much better; close to the pace the DS was at.

jcm said:
Yes, I am. I think recent performance is more likely to be illuminating than older performance. I think the 3ds selling half of what the ds sold over a comparable six month period is unlikely to be an aberration, and is more likely indicative that the 3ds is not another ds. I think comparing LTDs to get an idea of future performance is dumb.

I'm not saying Nintendo is doomed, or the 3ds is a failure. I'm saying investors ought to be considering what Nintendo looks like without a huge, monster handheld.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure we're all on the same page here. It's just that to whoever stated the 3DS was behind DS, it's not true ... yet.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
I'm saying investors ought to be considering what Nintendo looks like without a huge, monster handheld.
Click to expand...


On the bright side, their big first party games are bigger than what they were during the GBA/GCN era. Nintendo will just have to get used to working under much lower profit margins than the Wii era.
 
S

saichi

Member
flattie said:
Nintendo rely on their franchises far too heavily. Understandable to a certain extent, it's what gives them such a rock solid foundation. But my god, I can't remember the last Nintendo game that got me truly excited. SMG was maybe the closest.

They've basically kept the same core of games for 2/3 generations, which have seen incremental improvements at best. Nintendo don't excite [me]. If they are too scared to really shake up their existing IPs, then they should be getting new ones to market (which aren't based around Mii's). As I said in another thread, Sony have three brand new IPs coming out next year for PS3 - all three of these games have turned my head and that's where, as a gamer, my wallet is currently targeted.
Click to expand...

Mii is an integrated part of Nintendo's strategy and I don't understand why any new IP based on Mii doesn't count. It would still be a new IP even if it's not catered to your taste as a gamer.
 
J

jcm

Member
metalslimer said:
On the bright side, their big first party games are bigger than what they were during the GBA/GCN era. Nintendo will just have to get used to working under much lower profit margins than the Wii era.
Click to expand...

That's true, but I think their fixed costs are much higher (hasn't head count doubled since then?), and then yen is much worse, so exports are much less valuable.

I can't look up a citation for the costs right now, so if I'm wrong please correct me, or I'll do it tonight.
 
T

Tallshortman

Member
Nintendo can survive through a third place finish because of the cash reserves from the Wii. I'm still surprised they didn't come up with a better/more interesting product than the Wii U. We'll see how it does in Christmas 2013 or whenever the other 2 consoles come out as that may be a more important holiday than the one coming up.
 
tkscz

tkscz

Member
I can't believe that Nintendo only sees 5.5 Million WiiU's selling world wide by march. I can see it at most doing 10M by then (Christmas season and all). Maybe they're playing the, "If we make it sound like it will do bad, and it does good, investers will come back to us" card.

Tallshortman said:
Nintendo can survive through a third place finish because of the cash reserves from the Wii. I'm still surprised they didn't come up with a better/more interesting product than the Wii U. We'll see how it does in Christmas 2013 or whenever the other 2 consoles come out as that may be a more important holiday than the one coming up.
Click to expand...


You're really sure that the WiiU will be behind the other two next consoles. Why so positive about this outcome?
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
jcm said:
Yes, I am. I think recent performance is more likely to be illuminating than older performance. I think the 3ds selling half of what the ds sold over a comparable six month period is unlikely to be an aberration, and is more likely indicative that the 3ds is not another ds. I think comparing LTDs to get an idea of future performance is dumb.

I'm not saying Nintendo is doomed, or the 3ds is a failure. I'm saying investors ought to be considering what Nintendo looks like without a huge, monster handheld.
Click to expand...

I'm fairly convinced they already are.

From approximately their peak (5 year chart):

nintendopart198l86.png


Max chart on Yahoo Finance:

nintendopart2ntbjg.png


The plus side is, I don't think it's likely to look much worse than it does right now unless the Wii U complete implodes.
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
tkscz said:
I can't believe that Nintendo only sees 5.5 Million WiiU's selling world wide by march. I can see it at most doing 10M by then (Christmas season and all). Maybe they're playing the, "If we make it sound like it will do bad, and it does good, investers will come back to us" card.
Click to expand...

While its possible to give a conservative estimate so it looks good when they beat it there is no way they'll manufacture 10 million by march, currently the wii holds the record launch figures for that time frame at 5.8 million units, as for wii u they'll sell whatever they make could be just under the 5.5 maybe a bit over but it won't be over 7 million
 
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