I'd like to hear thoughts/feedback on this thesis.
I think you're right that Sony's best bet is to focus on the core market, but I think it's only the best move for them and not the best move in general. As much as I love Sony as a gamer, I don't have much faith in their ability to bring everything together into that "center of the living room" box that Microsoft is focusing on. I think that ultimately, Microsoft is on a very good track to succeed at what they're trying to do with the traction they've gained this generation in the U.S. and their software capabilities when it comes to crafting a nice OS and gluing all kinds of features to it.
I guess Microsoft is taking a bigger risk? But this is probably
the time to do it, and I think that they are in a very good position to pull it off. Plus, if they don't, oh well. This is what they wanted all along, and now is their time to go after it. So it's sort of, "We're more ready now than we ever will be."
I like Sony's approach on a personal level, and I
really hope that, at worst, they find the profitable niche that you're talking about. I think Nintendo did a fantastic job with the Wii carving this sort of niche out for themselves, where they are no longer really part of the console competition and even if traditional consoles go away they will still be able to put out unique boxes that play their first party games exclusively and make a profit.
I think if Sony is going to carve its own niche (the console for "core" gamers), the absolutely pivotal moment for them will be in the very initial push. They have to come out immediately with games that are separated from what is on the next Xbox. Otherwise, the PS4 risks being seen by too many as the same thing as an Xbox, but without all of the extra features. It has to be something more than an Xbox, but without all of the extra features- and it has to make that clear very quickly. According to rumors, it looks like the PS4 will be a bit more capable of a gaming machine, but I don't think that is nearly as important as we might assume. All this means is that developers
can get more out of it, it doesn't mean that they will end up doing it. Personally, I believe that the success of the PS4 (and maybe of Playstation as a brand going forward) lies totally on the shoulders of the first parties that they have been priming over the past several years. They need these developers to come through strongly, and show everyone that the PS4 is a more capable gaming machine. Even if it
wasn't, this would still be the case. Sony's chips are all on their first party developers right now, in my opinion. Which I guess is exactly the way it should be, I really hope that they succeed.