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Apple Reports record results, 47.8mil iPhones, 22.9mil iPads, wall street still mad

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beast786

Member
Based on revenue growth
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2012/03/31/2017883795.jpg

They're a retailer that's growing very quickly. They're going to have razor thin margins which means by definition price per earnings is going to be high.

P/E with E small due to reinvestment means very high P/E. It's math.

Stock price isn't just based on static earnings, but fundamentals and speculation on future earnings. If investors think that Amazon is going to be the #1 online retailer and have a massive market in the future and make a solid 10-15%, then they will buy the stock, increase demand, increase price and with amazon investing lowering E, you have high P/E. This is investing 101.

This is from the article I posted:
"
Amazon.com on Thursday evening missed analysts' growth estimates for the fifth quarter in a row and saw its shares rise.
"
so who cares about margin when your total revenue has been below expectation. add to the fact that even the margin are getting bigger.

Hey, I am not stupid. I never fight the trend. Even the loss I received today was more due to option trade in August that realized this week.

so, obviously market has a trend with Amazn, and its irrelevant what I think because none here are market makers. and I totally know that if stock market was based on fundamentals , we all would be rich right now, it isn't and that is why I never try to fight the trend
 

eastmen

Banned
The data does not reflect what you are saying at all. The ASP of the iphone did not go down.

Q1 '12 37,044 units with 23,950 revenue = 646 ASP

Q1 '13 47,789 units with 30,660 revenue = 641ASP

Looks like the iphone and ipad are down YOY in ASP esp the ipad.

The mac is just down YOY and so is the ipod.
 
The main difference is that converging a toaster and a refrigerator sounds like a good idea.

8797555_xxlg.jpg


About that...
 

user_nat

THE WORDS! They'll drift away without the _!
Looks like Windows 8 has even killed Mac sales..

Or the entire market is shrinking
 

border

Member
I hear this way too much. The "Apple waits until the technology is fully baked" card. Let me guess, you think a laptop with a touchscreen is like converging a toaster and a refrigerator.

Convergence is something that people could arguably want in large numbers. Though it might be easier to make that argument if the Win8 tablets and Surface hadn't flopped pretty hard.

NFC is largely unsupported as a payment platform, and in terms of user-to-user interactions it doesn't seem like there's much there that couldn't be done with BlueTooth. "Wireless" charging is as ultimately dumb and limiting as wired charging. "Oh so now I have to set my phone on the coffee table and can't move it, but it's on an expensive pad rather than plugged into a cheap USB cable!" They're little more than bullet points for a few Android phones. Esoteric features that most people won't use, don't have much marketing zing, but increase the cost of making each phone.
 

Cipherr

Member
Convergence is something that people could arguably want in large numbers.

NFC is largely unsupported as a payment platform, and in terms of user-to-user interactions it doesn't seem like there's much there that couldn't be done with BlueTooth. "Wireless" charging is as ultimately dumb and limiting as wired charging. "Oh so now I have to set my phone on the coffee table and can't move it, but it's on an expensive pad rather than plugged into a cheap USB cable!" They're little more than bullet points for a few Android phones. Esoteric features that most people won't use, don't have much marketing zing, but increase the cost of making each phone.

Doesn't matter what you personally think of NFC and the like, your statement that Apple only ships 'fully baked' tech is the height of kool-aid drinking fanboy bullshit.

Siri and Maps were anything but fully baked, and don't get me started on that goddamn podcast app. For Christ sakes, Siri is a beta, that alone absolutely craps all over your 'fully baked' nonsense.

Just stop. Its not NFC's fault, or Wireless chargings fault that the stock is down, so stop lashing out.

Why picking on wireless charging ? I'm excited to get it going on my phones.

Not to mention the fact that you can still plug it in to charge if you want. Its not an either or thing. And an NFC chip cost $8 per chip 3 years ago (which would work out to about ~1% of the cost of a smartphone)... Its surely cheaper now, and especially when ordered in mass bulk for electronics. The cost is absolutely marginal, and is rolled into the subsidy by the carriers in the U.S. anyway.
 

eastmen

Banned
Convergence is something that people could arguably want in large numbers.

NFC is largely unsupported as a payment platform, and in terms of user-to-user interactions it doesn't seem like there's much there that couldn't be done with BlueTooth. "Wireless" charging is as ultimately dumb and limiting as wired charging. "Oh so now I have to set my phone on the coffee table and can't move it, but it's on an expensive pad rather plugged into a USB cable!" They're little more than bullet points for a few Android phones.

Why picking on wireless charging ? I'm excited to get it going on my phones.


I'd love to be able to go home and just put my phone on my night stand and have it charge and if I get a call I pick it up and answer and then just put it down when I'm done. No more fumbling with plugs in the dark or worrying about the plugs / ports going bad.

I'd hope at some point it becomes so common that when I go to a restaurant I can put my phone down on the table and have it charge or on a plane it charges when on the tray.

Same with tablets. I've love to be able to say set my surface down to watch a movie and while its on the tray it will get charged.
 

border

Member
Siri and Maps were anything but fully baked, and don't get me started on that goddamn podcast app. For Christ sakes, Siri is a beta, that alone absolutely craps all over your 'fully baked' nonsense.

Siri also pretty much sold the 4S to millions. Unlike NFC or wireless charging, it was a feature that intrigued a pretty wide audience.

I didn't say that Apple ONLY shipped fully-baked stuff. When it comes to things that increase the actual physical cost of producing the phones (or battery life), they seem to be pretty shrewd and cautious.
 

numble

Member
Doesn't matter what you personally think of NFC and the like, your statement that Apple only ships 'fully baked' tech is the height of kool-aid drinking fanboy bullshit.

Siri and Maps were anything but fully baked, and don't get me started on that goddamn podcast app. For Christ sakes, Siri is a beta, that alone absolutely craps all over your 'fully baked' nonsense.

Just stop. Its not NFC's fault, or Wireless chargings fault that the stock is down, so stop lashing out.
You don't address any of his points with regard to NFC and wireless charging, make up straw men arguments like he thinks NFC/wireless charging are causing the stock to go down, yet accuse him of lashing out?

It's fairly easy to distinguish implementing added-cost hardware versus crowdsourced-based software, for one. A better argument might be Apple's implementation of LTE (unavailable in most iPhone markets), Retina displays in iPad 3, or the HD voice tech (not available on most carriers).
 
Convergence is something that people could arguably want in large numbers. Though it might be easier to make that argument if the Win8 tablets and Surface hadn't flopped pretty hard.

NFC is largely unsupported as a payment platform, and in terms of user-to-user interactions it doesn't seem like there's much there that couldn't be done with BlueTooth. "Wireless" charging is as ultimately dumb and limiting as wired charging. "Oh so now I have to set my phone on the coffee table and can't move it, but it's on an expensive pad rather than plugged into a cheap USB cable!" They're little more than bullet points for a few Android phones. Esoteric features that most people won't use, don't have much marketing zing, but increase the cost of making each phone.

My family was using NFC at Thanksgiving, sharing pictures with each other. What separates NFC is that you don't have to manually connect to anything (bluetooth). You just find a picture/playlist/whatever and tap phones. Easy. It's actually a lot of fun to share photos and music via NFC. But wait, once iPhone supports NFC, it will suddenly become "fun to share" songs and pictures with people in person. Of course. Only then will NFC be fully baked, won't it?

I didn't say that Apple ONLY shipped fully-baked stuff. When it comes to things that increase the actual physical cost of producing the phones (or battery life), they seem to be pretty shrewd and cautious.

Ah, physical cost. That's a good save clause.
 

Risette

A Good Citizen
Doesn't matter what you personally think of NFC and the like, your statement that Apple only ships 'fully baked' tech is the height of kool-aid drinking fanboy bullshit.

Siri and Maps were anything but fully baked, and don't get me started on that goddamn podcast app. For Christ sakes, Siri is a beta, that alone absolutely craps all over your 'fully baked' nonsense.

Just stop. Its not NFC's fault, or Wireless chargings fault that the stock is down, so stop lashing out.
The guy responsible for both of those things lost his position. That should tell you something.
 

KHarvey16

Member
If there's one thing I know, it's that the masses are really clamoring for NFC. Why I can't walk 10 feet without having to duck under two strangers tapping phones, and the number of sighs and confused looks I see when I try to pay with something as quaint as a debit card instead of using the NFC terminal is just mind boggling.

Clamoring I tell you!
 

Cipherr

Member
The guy responsible for both of those things lost his position. That should tell you something.

Oh it absolutely does. That no one is infallible. Everyone knows Apple is conservative. I just don't like it when people pretend that they only ship software and features that are fully mature and ready for prime time. Thats not true, and especially not recently. And more importantly, in this particular thread, the miniscule cost of adding NFC to a device is really pretty irrelevant. The market isn't moving the way it is because they didn't stick an NFC chip in their 2012 lineup.
 

mcfrank

Member
Q1 '12 37,044 units with 23,950 revenue = 646 ASP

Q1 '13 47,789 units with 30,660 revenue = 641ASP

Looks like the iphone and ipad are down YOY in ASP esp the ipad.

The mac is just down YOY and so is the ipod.

iPhone asp down less than 1% is not anything to use as a data point. It is barely noise. iPad asp was way down due to iPad mini, which is expected.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Looks like Windows 8 has even killed Mac sales..

Or the entire market is shrinking

Windows PC sales have fallen off the cliff, they are dropping in sales far more severely than Mac sales are. Tablets are killing the consumer PC market. Within 10 years the home PC market is pretty much only going to be for enterprise and the niche hardcore PC users. It's why Microsoft is trying so desperately with phones and tablets, their bread and butter is dying at the consumer level.
 

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
I sure do see that little wave logo around a lot for something that's largely unsupported..

Not to mention how easy it makes sharing. And wireless charging is sublime. But as someone posted earlier, it will be considered useful and awesome to these guys once apple bakes it into their phones, and not a second sooner.
 

Wiktor

Member
Windows PC sales have fallen off the cliff, they are dropping in sales far more severely than Mac sales are. l.
Not really, looking at those numbers Macs crashed twice as badly as PCs did. And I wouldn't go all doom and gloom on them yet. Yes, they're loosing their dominance, but they're still selling close to 400 mln units a year (not even counting those people build themselves) and people are using them far more years than they do tablets.
 

rezuth

Member
Oh it absolutely does. That no one is infallible. Everyone knows Apple is conservative. I just don't like it when people pretend that they only ship software and features that are fully mature and ready for prime time. Thats not true, and especially not recently. And more importantly, in this particular thread, the miniscule cost of adding NFC to a device is really pretty irrelevant. The market isn't moving the way it is because they didn't stick an NFC chip in their 2012 lineup.

I don't know if people think they ship stuff when they are "fully baked" as much as they ship stuff the way they should be made. Also NFC makes sense in the future but barcode scanners are found everywhere so in that case something like Passbook makes more sense the way its designed now but I agree that NFC is most likely the future.
 
Windows PC sales have fallen off the cliff, they are dropping in sales far more severely than Mac sales are. Tablets are killing the consumer PC market. Within 10 years the home PC market is pretty much only going to be for enterprise and the niche hardcore PC users. It's why Microsoft is trying so desperately with phones and tablets, their bread and butter is dying at the consumer level.

Still think Mac can expand. Just Apple basically stamped its foot like a little child.
Why is there not more cross-functionality between their hardware?
 

border

Member
I sure do see that little wave logo around a lot for something that's largely unsupported..

http://www.mastercard.us/cardholder-services/paypass-locator.html

When I search for places that support PayPass, it's not much more than a collection of gas stations and the occasional fast food restaurant. Support at actual retail stores seems pretty spotty. I see someone pay with their iPhone everytime I go to Starbucks, whereas I don't think I've ever seen anyone use an NFC payment option anywhere.

I'd hope at some point it becomes so common that when I go to a restaurant I can put my phone down on the table and have it charge or on a plane it charges when on the tray.

Considering that most restaurants that aren't fast food or cafes still are too cheap/lazy to provide WiFi or electrical outlets for every table, I wouldn't expect many of them to start coughing up $50-$100 (plus maintenance costs) per table for charging mats. Most places want to get you in and out as expediently as possible....not provide you with a reason to sit at your table screwing around on a laptop for 20 minutes after you've finished your meal.
 

LCfiner

Member
Not really, looking at those numbers Macs crashed twice as badly as PCs did. And I wouldn't go all doom and gloom on them yet. Yes, they're loosing their dominance, but they're still selling close to 400 mln units a year (not even counting those people build themselves) and people are using them far more years than they do tablets.

Apple's line is that this was due to supply constraints with the iMac more than industry trends (PC sales down 6% YoY) or ipad cannibalizing Macs. it should be fairly easy to see if their story holds up in subsequent quarters. those future YoY Mac numbers in the upcoming quarters should be positive if Apple wasn't lying to the investors.

we'll see.
 

Dreaver

Member
So Apple sells a record amount of iPhones, the profits are even a bit higher then expected, even when the market is starting to saturate?

Why the hell do the stocks drop so hard? Why are the shareholders(?) not "happy", can somebody explain me in simple words?
 

Cheebo

Banned
So Apple sells a record amount of iPhones, the profits are even a bit higher then expected, even when the market is starting to saturate?

Why the hell do the stocks drop so hard? Why are the shareholders(?) not "happy", can somebody explain me in simple words?

Investors want growth. Lots of it. If Apple does another 13 billion in profit alone a year from now in a quarter they will lose their minds again.
 

Dreaver

Member
Investors want growth. Lots of it. If Apple does another 13 billion in profit alone in Q4 2013 they will lose their minds again.
I understand they want growth, but you can't grow forever, there is a moment when the market is saturated. I understand it but just find it really weird that this (huge) profit even isn't enough.
 

Acheron

Banned
I'm a bit non-plussed by the people saying $700 is fantasyland.

Would a split make sense because the numbers are too high?

The P/E on AAPL is less than half that of Google, 50% less than Microsoft. Even if the growth has slowed, it wasn't crazy.
 
So Apple sells a record amount of iPhones, the profits are even a bit higher then expected, even when the market is starting to saturate?

Why the hell do the stocks drop so hard? Why are the shareholders(?) not "happy", can somebody explain me in simple words?
Future Expectations are already built in the stock price. Ie, aapl is expected to sell two trillion iphones and it comes out that they only sold a trillion, the price will drop.
 
So Apple sells a record amount of iPhones, the profits are even a bit higher then expected, even when the market is starting to saturate?

Why the hell do the stocks drop so hard? Why are the shareholders(?) not "happy", can somebody explain me in simple words?

Apple has few products; increasing competition and less margins. Their not exactly in a growing position based on these numbers.

zaBs3w.png


If anyone can give me a reason for this massive rise I'll listen; but as far as I can tell there wasn't much.

Apple is doing FINE. Its the stupid stock market people who paid more than the shares were worth who are being caught out here.
Question is not 'why are they falling when xyz' its; 'why did they rise despite zyx'

Apple does need to do more in 2013 to keep their value above that 400 mark though.
 
So Apple sells a record amount of iPhones, the profits are even a bit higher then expected, even when the market is starting to saturate?

Why the hell do the stocks drop so hard? Why are the shareholders(?) not "happy", can somebody explain me in simple words?

Stock prices factor into account not just growth but the slope of the growth as well. If that is decreasing and profits per unit are decreasing, the stock price is going to correct itself.
 

maharg

idspispopd
http://www.mastercard.us/cardholder-services/paypass-locator.html

When I search for places that support PayPass, it's not much more than a collection of gas stations and the occasional fast food restaurant. Support at actual retail stores seems pretty spotty. I see someone pay with their iPhone everytime I go to Starbucks, whereas I don't think I've ever seen anyone use an NFC payment option anywhere..

I, on the other hand, have paid for things with paypass all by my very lonesome (not on my phone, but with my card. Principle is the same, though) but have never in my life seen someone pay for something with their iphone.

Anecdata! It's what all the cool kids do these days, right?

Paypass is the sort of thing that grows just because it comes with a new POS terminal. But really this is pretty far off-topic, so I'm about done with it.

I'm a bit non-plussed by the people saying $700 is fantasyland.

Would a split make sense because the numbers are too high?

The P/E on AAPL is less than half that of Google, 50% less than Microsoft. Even if the growth has slowed, it wasn't crazy.

You really can't compare P/E between companies like that in any meaningful way. There's an X-factor involved in converting P/E to a target share price that basically amounts to "how much do I think earnings will grow" that's both nebulous and pretty much non-portable between even similar companies.
 
Apple has few products; increasing competition and less margins. Their not exactly in a growing position based on these numbers.

zaBs3w.png


If anyone can give me a reason for this massive rise I'll listen; but as far as I can tell there wasn't much.

Apple is doing FINE. Its the stupid stock market people who paid more than the shares were worth who are being caught out here.
Question is not 'why are they falling when xyz' its; 'why did they rise despite zyx'

Apple does need to do more in 2013 to keep their value above that 400 mark though.

exactly what I was trying to say. Apple will make significant profits year over year for the forseeable future. That isn't in doubt. Those who were saying stock price has nothing to do with success of a product or quarterly profit are entirely correct. There have been cases where companies have LOST money, but seen the stock rise anyway since the loss was far less than expectations.

What happened here is that the stock price was $700 or whatever because analysts (this is the important part) and investors (less so) were expecting apple to continue to grow at unsustainable levels for years to come, and that expectation was built into the stock price. It wasn't long ago that pundits were speculating apple might be the first trillion dollar stock. In hindsight this is ludicrous, but these things tend to be self fulfilling prophecies- people would buy in at higher and higher prices because everyone just "knew" the stock would keep going up, jobs was a genius, and of COURSE there would be a revolutionary product year after year like clockwork to keep people excited. It sounds silly, but the same thing happened with real estate, and it's happening now with gold.

quite frankly, it was unrealistic- I said before, and grimshaw pointed out above that apple's profits (and thus their share price) relies entirely on what the ipad and iphone do. ANY dip in that market, or gains by a competitor and those sky high expectations get turned upside down, and the stock takes a dive.

The good news here is that the market tends to overreact to news, both good and bad. investors flee for the hills at the first sign of trouble to avoid a loss, so apple stock will probably come out of this undervalued- those looking to pick up shares that more accurately reflect the worth of the company can do so, and those that bought in at a higher price will likely see it recover once the panic dies down.
 
Not bad for half a day's "work", thanks AAPL

HJ2Lh1a.png

Very solid. I'm pissed since I couldnt trade that day due to my account being in a "transfer" process. Weekly calls are total gambling; 50/50. Volatility is huge especially before earnings. I had call spreads hoping it would go up...looks like i was wrong and damn did I lose.
Good job none the less.
 
Those who were saying stock price has nothing to do with success of a product or quarterly profit are entirely correct. There have been cases where companies have LOST money, but seen the stock rise anyway since the loss was far less than expectations.

That's because the market adjusted itself to the actual success of the product, because expectations were off. Of course stock prices are influenced by product success. To say it has nothing to do with each other is like saying wet has nothing to do with water.
 

KHarvey16

Member
I think he put roughly 500$ on apple stocks and at the end of the day those 500$ have become 1500$.

He bought a put. Essentially "someone" agreed to pay him a certain amount for 100 shares, and since the market price went down he was paid more money than it cost him to actually buy the 100 shares.

beaten
 
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