So the iPhone 5 on track to be the best selling smartphone of all time and easily outselling the iPhone 4S isn't a success?
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Apple Reports record results, 47.8mil iPhones, 22.9mil iPads, wall street still mad
- Thread starter mcfrank
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So the iPhone 5 on track to be the best selling smartphone of all time and easily outselling the iPhone 4S isn't a success?
bigtroyjon
Member
Google? WTF?
ChainedMaster
Banned
Moving goalposts now? You said stock prices have nothing to do with the success of products.
Because they don't? The massive success of their products aren't some how impacted by the lowering stock price.
bigsnack
Member
Well it's not a direct relationship. It's just like selling something on ebay, where an item is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Now and again, I buy used musical equipment online. I've seen the value of used instruments tumble simply because one guy comes in and sells his guitar at a steal because he needs the money ASAP. After that sale, all potential buyers begin considering that new lowball price as the "accepted value". After that, nobody will buy that type of guitar unless sellers are in the ballpark of that lowball price, thus the market value has changed.
With stocks it's the same thing, keeping in mind that the public are simply bit players among the Wall Street guys. We are at the mercy of the market they create for each other.
Manmademan
Member
This always confused me. Red flags were going up for me when Apple was valued more than ExxonMobil, despite not being anywhere near as robust.
$700 a share was fantasyland.
victreeb3l
Member
what are you even trying to argue?
That's not what he meant. The shares are affected by people's expectations: It doesn't matter if the new iPhone outsells the old one, if it doesn't grown as much at the market expect it to, people might sell their shares and thus devalue the stock price.
Mr.Awesome
Banned
Yeah, I trade for a living. Half the time I don't even know what the company that I'm trading does. Often, I've never even heard of it. Doesn't matter. Buyers and Sellers are the only things driving price. Obviously, outside factors drive them though.
In the short term they definitely don't. Apple sold more of everything that matters this quarter than they did last quarter or any quarter ever. If the two were directly tied together it would be at all all-time high, not an almost 52-week low. Results are tied together over the long term; looking over the short term (1-3 years, maybe), there is a ton of room for insane divergences.
So... maybe not $700. But be honest, did you really call a dip to $460 after January earnings release? It was Q4, the biggest quarter of the year, and consider the history of the stock.
I just didn't see that coming.
I find it different that they're almost directly proportional to the iPhone sales. The must be cutting those college deals like crazy. Especially for schools, more education facilities are buying them every year.
Manmademan
Member
not this fast, no. I figured it would take some time for reality to sink in re: the stock price, but this is something else.
The big problem with apple is that they're completely and totally dependent on the iphone and to a lesser extent the ipad for their earnings. The mac is an afterthought and the ipod is dead. Google, Microsoft, and even Sony are a lot more robust (not to mention exxon, which makes all three look like amateurs here). If the bottom falls out of Android phones, consumer desktop PCs, or flatscreen televisions (which is part of what's happened to Sony) all three would be fine, more or less. The iphone goes and apple is screwed.
Cheap android phones and tablets have been eating marketshare like a fat girl at a chinese buffet for nearly two years now- a decline was inevitable. The fantasy that jobs would always have something amazing around the corner to revolutionize the market again was really the only thing keeping it going. i think his death sinking in has a lot to do with why a lot of the shine is off the stock now.
ChainedMaster
Banned
This isn't even relevant. How does success have nothing to do with stock prices? Did Apple just get a high stock value through failure of products? Tell me, if the iPhone 5 completely bombed, you don't think the stock price would be lower today? If you do, then product success obviously has a lot to do with stock prices.
I did not expect profits to be flat YoY. Once that number came out this afternoon, I knew the stock was going to drop after hours, units sold be damned. We would expect that from any company's results, wouldn't we?
It might have rebounded past $500 IF profits were up ~20% like revenue was. maybe. But they took the hit on margins - seemingly due mostly to the iPad min's low margins (and to think that my initial reaction to the $330 price was that Apple was selling it for massive >50% margins, lol)
I don't know where the stock is going to go from here. But I do expect that iPad and iPhone sales will continue to go up, they will likely have higher margins for the iPad mini this year, and results for next year's Xmas quarter will show profit growth once more. I would be very surprised if profits are flat two years in a row for Xmas.
It might have rebounded past $500 IF profits were up ~20% like revenue was. maybe. But they took the hit on margins - seemingly due mostly to the iPad min's low margins (and to think that my initial reaction to the $330 price was that Apple was selling it for massive >50% margins, lol)
I don't know where the stock is going to go from here. But I do expect that iPad and iPhone sales will continue to go up, they will likely have higher margins for the iPad mini this year, and results for next year's Xmas quarter will show profit growth once more. I would be very surprised if profits are flat two years in a row for Xmas.
ReturnOfTheRAT
Member
Umm.... Holy shit.
There was supposed to be a bounce back on earnings. I don't know WHAT the fuck to think now.
Must feel bad.
Ken Masters
Banned
Umm.... Holy shit.
There was supposed to be a bounce back on earnings. I don't know WHAT the fuck to think now.
after the joke that is iOS 6 and iPhone 5 being nothing more then a slightly taller iPhone 4S, I have no sympathy for Apple
The expectations were higher, as crazy as that seems, so when companies don't meet speculators projections people sell sell sell
No increase in trolling ability detected; unloading stock
Yet the iPhone 5 is on track to easily be the highest selling smartphone of all time yet the stock collapses.
I see you've met Ken.
Ken Masters
Banned
Sell, sell, sell, sell!
derExperte
Member
Walltreet is mainly about expectations and hype. Look at how Microsoft posts record quarters and years regularily while swimming in cash but nobody gets excited anymore. Some here will deny it but Apples stock price has become grossly inflated over the last years so every tiny bit of not optimal news will cause something like this. Remember how unreasonably fast it went up at the beginning of last year? Everybody who has any experience in the stock market knows that's rarely a one way street.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
Look around buddy. Its a good phone, but the competition has closed the gap......and then some.
eh, it depends what each person cares about.
In some ways, people will prefer the competition (bigger screens, more customization) but in others, those options still haven't matched the iphone (build materials and feel, app ecosystem, international iTunes media support)
I'm a CS major and customization doesn't only doesn't interest me but also confuses me. I pay Apple to make the decisions for me, I don't want to be the system integrator/customizer.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
True, but it isn't a slam dunk anymore. It certainly was back when my wife and I owned an iPhone. It was hands down,the best at everything. Not so much anymore, and things like wireless charging, NFC, even LTE for a time they are way behind the curve plus the stuff you mentioned.
I can't wait until they refresh iOS, it really needs a kick in the pants.
I can't wait until they refresh iOS, it really needs a kick in the pants.
I hope you at least jailbreak as a CS major.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
"I'm confused by customization" is the stupidest argument ever. Besides, you don't have to customize a stock android phone and you certainly don't have to hurt your head with Windows Phone. They can all be as simple or as complex as you like.
Even iOS has a fair amount of customization you can do, and an expert uses all of the gestures and navigation tricks that a novice never even has to learn. I use my iPad differently and more efficiently than my sister.
Even iOS has a fair amount of customization you can do, and an expert uses all of the gestures and navigation tricks that a novice never even has to learn. I use my iPad differently and more efficiently than my sister.
ChainedMaster
Banned
You didn't answer my question. If the iPhone 5 had sold half as much, would the stock price be lower? Yes or no? If yes, then you yourself have just admitted stock price has much to do with product success.
I lost a lot of money today. This is 3 ER in a row of some type of disappointment. The trend has not been in apple favor. This was suppose to put things back in track. this downhill force now even has more momentum.
The share price really makes no sense , keeping 134 Billion in cash apple has, the market with such a low PE is really not treating apple as a gwroth stock anymore , that is now a flack. Apple is now seen as a value play .
The share price really makes no sense , keeping 134 Billion in cash apple has, the market with such a low PE is really not treating apple as a gwroth stock anymore , that is now a flack. Apple is now seen as a value play .
Depends what market would be expecting. If market expected a decrease of 75% and apple only down 50%, the stock will rise.
They are multiple example of gwroth companies stock rocket up on lost revenue. because its all about Wall Street whisper expectation.
It makes perfect sense when you look to the future and not the past. Their ipod line is continuing to die , the ipad ASP has decreased by $100 bucks The iphone ASP has most likely decreased ( didn't see the numbers), record number of iphones were sold on the back of the 4 dropping (in the states to a free phone) Imac sales were down along with most of their traditional markets.
What is there to look forward to this year ? T-Mobile getting the iphone ? another iphone / ipad model ?
Apple needs something to create a new market and start driving in more money. I don't know what it is that they can do.
Amazon is basically the online store, and is expanding in cloud services and mobile devices. They're growing massively, and a big reason why the P/E is so high is because Amazon spends all of their earnings on reinvesting in Amazon to grow.
Amazon is in a super high growth tech stock, and it's not completely inflated on irrational projections.
You should try looking at numbers before you post. The iPhone average selling price stayed the same from previous quarters. Also, Tim Cook said the mix between iPhones five and previous models was similar to in previous years.
ChainedMaster
Banned
Right but if a product isn't as successful as Wall Street expected, it will adjust accordingly. It doesn't depend on what the market is expecting. The increase/decrease in stock price is just an adjustment to missed/surpassed expectations of success. The price will always reflect success.
4s cost less to built than 5 for obvious reason, iPad 4 and new Mac were release in the same Q1. Hence there was high Gross margin as expected. So we do expect the EPS to improve as you expect GM to go down. But, the big problem in that report was total revenue. That should have been on the side of 50B
What is there to look forward by far #1 is getting china mobile, biggest carrier in the world. T-Mobile is a blimp compare to it. So apple will always have that.
Also keep seeing the iPad growth, which was great.
last but not least, iTV, the wild card.
As per iPod, apple always have a business model of cannibalizing there own product line, as job used to say if we won't do it someone else will, so might as well us.
iPhones were already cannablizing iPod and Wall Street knew that, same with iPad cannablizing iMac and iPad mini cannablizing iPad . it's the apple business model, so I know Wall Street doesn't pay attention to those numbers. hence, all Wall Street cares right now are iPhones and iPad numbers. And if you look at the total revenue, it is totally represents that.
Funny, because I remember when iPhone didn't even have 3G support.
Apple waits until a technology is fully-baked before incorporating it. Crap like wireless charging and NFC only add to the cost of the phone while barely increasing its appeal at all. They waited for LTE presumably because it was killing the battery life on every phone that had it for a while (and support for LTE is very spotty outside the US, and pretty terrible inside the US as well).
Sorry, amazon is inflated and personally believe very irrational. And we're did you get this thing about it growing massively ? Apple shows more growth than AMzn .
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904034104578066630560659950.html
EDIT: I would also say that apple is also a retailer.Its store make more dollar per foot than any retailer.
ChainedMaster
Banned
I hear this way too much. The "Apple waits until the technology is fully baked" card. Let me guess, you think a laptop with a touchscreen is like converging a toaster and a refrigerator.
Based on revenue growth
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2012/03/31/2017883795.jpg
They're a retailer that's growing very quickly. They're going to have razor thin margins which means by definition price per earnings is going to be high.
P/E with E small due to reinvestment means very high P/E. It's math.
Stock price isn't just based on static earnings, but fundamentals and speculation on future earnings. If investors think that Amazon is going to be the #1 online retailer and have a massive market in the future and make a solid 10-15%, then they will buy the stock, increase demand, increase price and with amazon investing lowering E, you have high P/E. This is investing 101.
The reason why Apple is deflating is because it had a little bit too much of that future growth expectation. When reality showed a small increase and reduced future projections, investors realized they were wrong and demand for the stock dropped. They could be wrong, or they could be right. We'll see.
Whats driving the ipad growth. That's the question. The mini has a lower ASP than the ipad.
The iphone 4 and 4s is what will drive the growth in china not the 5 and both the 4 and 4s command lower ASP and apple makes less per device sold.
jts
...hate me...
The main difference is that converging a toaster and a refrigerator sounds like a good idea.
The data does not reflect what you are saying at all. The ASP of the iphone did not go down.
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