Support NeoGAF

[James Sawyer Ford]

i can see a situation next year at this time where the best-selling console is also around 150k. that might even be the 360 again if it gets a price drop. if the systems are $500, it'll be more like how the ps3 took off.

that's not to say they won't eventually say a lot, just that it'll be growing slowly.

That could happen but it wouldn't be a disaster in my view.


Right now the only sales are coming from the PS3 and 360 for the most part. Even if PS3 and 360 continue to sell roughly the same or slightly lower next year (thanks to price cuts), and PS4/720 sell roughly the same or slightly above their predecessors, that would represent total industry growth. And hopefully Nintendo gets its act together and does better as well.

My point is that the industry is not doomed, I think there's a lot of pent up demand for truly new gen consoles even at $500. And if there's not massive demand, it will gradually get better as the price comes down (as you said).

If the new consoles were doing those kinds of numbers, people will call them dead on arrival.

PS3 did MUCH worse at one point, selling only like 65K at its lowest NPD (I believe)....and it turned it around.

 

[DMeisterJ]

So launch aligned, the WiiU is being outsold by the $600 PS3

 

[Shiggy]

Well it's still second best selling 1st party title, isn't it?

As you mention Nintendo best seling games from this top 20 list are releasing in the next few months = Nintendo has the material to save Wii U. They will also NEED to take a big loss -$75 to 100 more on each console. And voila.

I can really see them being successful at €150 for the Wii U Basic with Wii Party U, Mario Kart, and Wii Fit U. That would be a sweet price for families and could be marketed easily.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Yup. I said for a while they should have just got full handheld/console combo with the Wii U. Would have solved so many problems and might have then actually been a genuine strategic advantage over its competitors.

imagine the sheer amount of games if they focused all their efforts on one piece of hardware

 

[ViewtifulJC]

40k > Wii U
Vita < 20k

 

[Margalis]

If SS is a niche Vita game then which titles aren't niche?

 

[Azure J]

I don't think anybody knows what Nintendo post-U plans are, even Nintendo.

Working on creating a competitive unified hardware base would be a start so they could either go all in with their console/handheld business from the jump (no need to develop two separate sets of assets for games on the console or handheld leading to two different ebbs and flows in their software production) or scale down and develop for one hybrid device (I'm still not a fan of this idea, but I imagine that this is the endgame for Nintendo with all other option trees dying off).

 

[Jinfash]

No wonder Nintendo is going against monetized Long Play youtubes, they need every source of revenue they can get.

eh?

EH?

 

[Captain Tuttle]

WiiU numbers are embarrassing

 

[Gadirok]

Number 2 in Japan right now is still terrible because PSP is dying, PS3 is dying, Wii is dead, and 360 has always been dead. There is nothing to beat and with FF13-3. MGS, a price drop I wouldn't count PS3 out

PS3 isin't dieing. And I recall PSP outselling PSvita many weeks until a few months ago. It got some ports of PS3 games while the Vita didn't earlier on.

 

[UberTag]

Noooo! Someone convince me this is all a horrible dream and this system is not going to pile drive Bayonetta AND Pikmin into an early grave at the same time! Oh the humanity!

Those franchise eggs have already died inside Nintendo's womb.

They just haven't passed what remains of their lifeless forms out through their channel to be quietly buried in an "oh btw, <25K" from creamsugar update in a future month's NPD thread.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

No wonder Nintendo is going against monetized Long Play youtubes, they need every source of revenue they can get.

eh?

EH?

Not your best zinger, but I chuckled.

 

[legend166]

This, also.

I wonder if Nintendo would be doing better if they had put out a more advanced Wiimote and continued to market to casuals instead of the tablet.

Like, a direct repeat of the Wii. Wii Sports U comes out at launch, etc.

They had to do it in 2011 when the Wii brand still had some traction in it. By 2012 the brand was damaged.

If I were running Nintendo I would have put out a Wii 2 in holiday 2011, with a further advanced Wiimote and a pro controller packed it. I feel like there was no need to abandon motion controls.

 

[prwxv3]

PS3 did MUCH worse at one point, selling only like 65K at its lowest NPD (I believe)....and it turned it around.

I thought it was 80K

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

WiiU has its NSMBU and ZombiU. 2 decent games. It also got Monster Hunter.

Things are bad now but I expect next year around the same period that the hardware sales will be significantly higher for the wiiU given Mario kart, 3D mario, and hype of bayonetta 2, zelda, etc will be rolling.

I'm more concerned of the Vita's long term future given the lack of forward software support hasn't been announced yet.

If anyone needs a relaunch its the Vita.

Wii U having at least the potential for a future is why it needs a relaunch. Time it this summer with a key title (Pikmin 3?), chop $100 off the price, throw in NSMBU and launch a bunch of games in succession leading to the big holiday games. It's really the only way.

Relaunching Vita wouldn't matter, it fucked either way. Sony may as well ride it out and lose as little as they can in the process.

 

[Dave Meltzer]

If the future of Nintendo is deciding to focus on a portable system you can also link up to your TV, they're going to crash and burn. People don't want to take portables out the house. People want consoles to offer graphically impressive experiences. That scenario would be the worst of both worlds.

 

[metalslimer]

PS3 isin't dieing. And I recall PSP outselling PSvita many weeks until a few months ago. It got some ports of PS3 games while the Vita didn't earlier on.

PS3 is a few good weeks away from going sub 10k at it's weekly standard. It's declining at best, dying at worse. There won't be some amazing PS3 resurgence again. It has sold what it will sell in japan for the most part.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Woah WiiU outsold the PS3 and 360 in its first month? That's pretty good.

Bear in mind one system was $599, and the other was supply constrained.

Also, some food for thought, looking at Media Create for the same tracking period the Wii U sold 40K in Japan (includes Golden Week Sales). Given 37K is a good number to use for NPD, Japan + US was around 77K.

The system likely sold around if not less than 100K units worldwide in April, a period including a Japanese holiday that provides a boon for shopping.

 

[Catchpenny]

just to defeat any sense of mystery, here is what is going to happen.

the wii u will fold after the next holiday season. nintendo may fizzle the 3ds out and they focus on one piece of hardware to merge the two businesses into one. i suspect the next console zelda will just get moved to this new machine, and might serve as a launch title.

after that, you can get all your nintendo games in one place. it'll be sorta like the dreamcast with sega focused on one machine. just lots of games. that's the good news. the bad news: it won't be the games you want. it will be past franchises all day every day, and only the ones that sell a lot. no pikmin, no sin & punishment, no f-zero.

I think this is generally correct, though I would say this happens in 2015 (not sure if next holiday season is a '13 or '14 reference). Nintendo probably knows that the Wii U will never see any sort of mass success, but they may still be able to sell enough of their own games on the console to avoid major losses. Hopefully they do not wait any longer than that.

Personally, I think PS4 and Durango will be the last non-hybrid consoles from the big three anyhow. Whether the future consoles are portable devices that can be streamed to your television, or set-top boxes that stream to portable devices, there won't be any consoles that only work via a television/monitor. PS4 may already be there, if the Vita remote play is universal (I have not kept track of this).

 

[Man]

The extent of the Wii-U disaster couldn't possibly have been predicted by me last year.
~35k systems this month. EA having completely abandoned the platform...
It was clear that it would face a software draught ala 3DS but this plane just crashed into the mountain.

The Vita is dead. Sony will ride it out past Christmas and drop it in spring.

 

[Amir0x]

imagine the sheer amount of games if they focused all their efforts on one piece of hardware

I suspect my heart would stop at such dreams

 

[Jinfash]

Not your best zinger, but I chuckled.

 

[ascii42]

Woah WiiU outsold the PS3 and 360 in its first month? That's pretty good.

First month sales = how many systems they were able to get into stores. Means little, really.

 

[Dave Meltzer]

They had to do it in 2011 when the Wii brand still had some traction in it. By 2012 the brand was damaged.

If I were running Nintendo I would have put out a Wii 2 in holiday 2011, with a further advanced Wiimote and a pro controller packed it. I feel like there was no need to abandon motion controls.

They had to abandon motion controls to get all this third party support.

 

[DR2K]

on PS3.

That platform it sold more on. . .

 

[WickedLaharl]

time for an unprecedented partnership

 

[Raist]

PS3 did MUCH worse at one point, selling only like 65K at its lowest NPD (I believe)....and it turned it around.

65k <<< 35k. You heard it here first.

edit: nvm seems you meant something else.

 

[DragonSworne]

2008? What was this in reference to?

 

[Amir0x]

65k <<< 35k. You heard it here first.

heh... the pain still hurts

 

[Jaded Alyx]

2008? What was this in reference to?

It's photoshopped. Was originally Tretton.

 

[WickedLaharl]

but seriously capcom has a lot of bombas to look forward to this year.

 

[Skytylz]

65k <<< 35k. You heard it here first.

$600 >>> $300 as well.

 

[metalslimer]

First month sales = how many systems they were able to get into stores. Means little, really.

Yep, it's when all the biggest fans buy something. The stagnation in December told us all we needed to know.

 

[prag16]

I don't either.

There are even people in this thread blaming Wii U and Vita for not providing a new experience for gamers. I still haven't seen how PS4/Nextbox are going to do that.

This. Lots of question marks. Anyone who's not even slightly concerned isn't being rational.

 

[Daingurse]

I suspect my heart would stop at such dreams

It would be a Dreamcast scenario basically?

Sega supported the fuck outta that box, goddammit. Funny how Dreamcast can symbolize both greatness and failure.

 

[ohlawd]

but seriously capcom has a lot of bombas to look forward to this year.

Dual Destinies isn't gonna bomba, shut yo mouth.

 

[Jinfash]

2008? What was this in reference to?

Shopped. Original:

My how the times have changed.

 

[Papercuts]

but seriously capcom has a lot of bombas to look forward to this year.

They have not been doing well in general after last year.

As much as I love(d) them, I find it pretty hilarious. So much misdirection going on there.

 

[MikeE21286]

PS3 is a few good weeks away from going sub 10k at it's weekly standard. It's declining at best, dying at worse. There won't be some amazing PS3 resurgence again. It has sold what it will sell in japan for the most part.

Price drops?

I don't know what PS3 costs in Japan

 

[Duxxy3]

Yep, it's when all the biggest fans buy something. The stagnation in December told us all we needed to know.

The mass returns in january were, imo, the biggest sign that the Wii U was in serious trouble.

 

[shinra-bansho]

PS3 did MUCH worse at one point, selling only like 65K at its lowest NPD (I believe)....and it turned it around.

The PS3 has never sold less than 82K for a tracking period in NPD, and never less than a weekly average of 19.7K, as far as I can find.

 

[Dave Meltzer]

Not true, there were some who thought that the Vita would be a successful handheld. I remember the orgasms when the price was announced. I have no idea who these 15k that buy the Vita in the US are, but I'd love to meet them and tell them that they fought the good fight. As a guy who bought both the Saturn and Dreamcast, I know how bad it feels to watch a console that you enjoy just crash and burn.

I can kinda understand why people thought Vita could do OK. In retrospect it was off base but a powerful portable system with graphics superior to smartphones at least sounds like it could theoretically have a shot in 2011.

 

[marc^o^]

$600 >>> $300 as well.

Now imagine Wii U sales with a $300 price drop. Free GamePad for everyone!

 

[Randolph Freelander]

When you multiply Wii and Wii U numbers, they're really quite phenomenal.

 

[Kusagari]

but seriously capcom has a lot of bombas to look forward to this year.

We will remember the bomba in the June NPD.

 

[Danthrax]

No wonder Nintendo is going against monetized Long Play youtubes, they need every source of revenue they can get.

eh?

EH?

LP stands for Let's Play. "Let's Play [game]" threads started on SomethingAwful.

 

[metalslimer]

Price drops?

I don't know what PS3 costs in Japan

Yes the price drop that will likely happen this year will prevent it from staying below 10k, but it is not going to sell another 3 million units there unless PS4 bombs and Sony focuses on PS3 for a long longer. PS3 and Wii U cost the same thing in Japan by the way so price is not the issue there. A price drop for Wii U there would bring it on par with 3DS XL and Vita.

 

[Gadirok]

That platform it sold more on. . .

Might be true but I certainly won't be supporting it again on PS3 unless they developed on PS3 first.

They fixed some of the problems but not all of them, and it damaged the brand. One of the lead reasons why people call out multiplats generally being better on 360.

 

[Raist]

Shopped. Original:

My how the times have changed.

Hasn't changed that much for Nintendo, if you think about it.

 

[goomba]

I can kinda understand why people thought Vita could do OK. In retrospect it was off base but a powerful portable system with graphics superior to smartphones at least sounds like it could theoretically have a shot in 2011.

I'd estimate the majority of GAF expected Vita to crush the 3DS...