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[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

So around 60,000 units for Resident Evil: Revelations, that's beyond horrible, poor Capcom can't catch a break. And the next bomb comes out in just two months (Lost Planet 3).

Capcom probably still aren't conscious about the huge damage Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City and Resident Evil 6 did to their franchise.

Ive said this before and ill say it again. This FY is going to be a disaster for capcom.


And remember me is the next flop, not lost planet.

 

[Exterminieren]

The problem of course being that its the exact same set of games (not the same content!) that released on the Gamecube which is why there even is a gulf anyway. Maybe the assumption is the Wii turned more people into rabid Kart and Smash fans to go out and buy a console just for them, but I'm not so sure.

Is there a 20 million baseline for a Nintendo home console, or does it go lower and raise the concerning issue of their now shrinking marketshare?

I'm just not sure we can draw conclusions about the Wii U underperforming on Gamecube levels yet, is all.

If your hypothesis is that Nintendo's franchises hadn't seen any permanent growth in the Wii era, that might be one thing, but your argument is, as of right now, based around them losing popularity, which I simply don't see any evidence for yet.

 

[ascii42]

The problem of course being that its the exact same set of games (not the same content!) that released on the Gamecube which is why there even is a gulf anyway. Maybe the assumption is the Wii turned more people into rabid Kart and Smash fans to go out and buy a console just for them, but I'm not so sure.

Is there a 20 million baseline for a Nintendo home console, or does it go lower and raise the concerning issue of their now shrinking marketshare?

Yeah. Mario Kart 64 sold around 9 million, whereas Mario Kart Wii sold over 30 million. How many of those people are interested in buying a new Mario Kart remains to be seen, but there's certainly a larger potential fanbase.

 

[Striek]

So around 60,000 units for Resident Evil: Revelations, that's beyond horrible, poor Capcom can't catch a break. And the next bomb comes out in just two months (Lost Planet 3).

Capcom probably still aren't conscious about the huge damage Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City and Resident Evil 6 did to their franchise.

RE:Rs reception has little to do with those games and everything to do with RE:R.

No one wanted an ugly $50 HD port of a 3DS title. I'm so glad that most people seem to have demonstrated the common sense to steer clear.

 

[A Human Becoming]

You guys concentrate too much on hardware sales like it's the only figure that matters. You can do well and make money on a small install base if you cultivate the right audience. Sony is trying to do that with the Vita. What's a better indicator is software momentum and attach rate. People who say NSMBU was a failure at driving hardware sales arent looking st the full picture. Its numbers are hugely successful in my opinion. It's clear that nearly everyone who bought the system, like 80%, bought it for that game. It's doing its job. However, the system has bigger issues - no one else seems to want it. There's no intrinsic demand for what its value proposition. I mean, when all your new games in a month barely (if at all?) hit 10k combined, you really need to mix it up and take some risks with partners to keep the ecosystem attractive.

I would focus less on hardware sales if software sales included digital. The software sales we have isn't providing the whole picture. I just look at the more concrete information.

But your right, and Gamecube is a good example of that. It had a small install base but made a profit.

Interesting perspective, John.

I would counter, though, that when the potential ceiling for unit sales is limited by a very weak install base, it deserves to be scrutinized. It's great that a majority of platform owners will buy in, but that number is held back. Publishers then have to consider whether that ceiling is enough to make development worthwhile. Sony may be making money, but are its third-party partners? That is, to me, an important question to consider.

We're 15 months in on the Vita lifespan here in the US, and there's been no sign of momentum for the hardware. Sony has done little-- if anything-- to promote it or make it attractive to consumers on a wide scale. Sony refuses to be flexible with hardware pricing in this territory despite seeing success elsewhere using price cuts as a motivator.

It's too early in the morning for me to think coherently so I'll just say I agree with everything Petrae said.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So I thought I'd explore this idea that the 3DS recovered primarily because of Mario Kart and 3D Land, rather than the (massive) price cut.

Since people keep referring to such effect as reason that come Dec this year (SM3DW) and Spring 2014 (Mario Kart 8) there will be a turn around in the Wii U's fortunes.

The price cut was announced July 28th and was effective from the 12th of August.

These are weekly sales rates for the 3 months prior and 3 months after the price cut. Post-cut in bold

May	24250
Jun	28600
Jul	23620
[B]Aug	58750
Sep	52000
Oct	63480[/B]

MK7 was released at retail Dec 4th and 3D Land, November 13th; outside of the months in question. They also coincided with the Holiday season, which further obfuscates how much of an effect they actually had in themselves.

N.B. I am not saying that software isn't important; but people seem to keep insisting that "a price cut would do nothing" and/or that the upcoming Mario games in absence of a large price cut will be sufficient to move the needle.

 

[HocusPocus]

Looks like the status quo is really working for the industry. The console folks can't lower their prices because they lost too much money early on. Sales aren't going to start moving again until they do. What a weird industry right now.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

It's hard to argue with those numbers shinra, how much was the 3DS price-drop $100?

 

[A Human Becoming]

It's hard to argue with those numbers shinra, how much was the 3DS price-drop $100?

$80. Interestingly enough, the original Xbox had a $100 price drop 6 months after release. It's something you never hear brought up.

 

[Magicpaint]

We'll see. I'm expecting a modest bump with it being a decent PS4 accessory, which will also give it some longevity. Vita in some form will be around as long as the PS4 is.

That's a heavily optimistic scenario. The PS4 isn't packaged with a Vita. People are going to have to go out of their way to spend so much for an overpriced accessory that adds little value to their PS4 (which is already priced outside of mainstream). Only a severe price drop accompanied with it will do something tangible for the Vita.

It's basically the GC/GBA connectivity thing all over again. Only one console will remain appealing, and it won't be for the connectivity.

 

[Exterminieren]

We'll see. I'm expecting a modest bump with it being a decent PS4 accessory, which will also give it some longevity. Vita in some form will be around as long as the PS4 is.

Wii U is failing with Off-TV play as a part of a cheaper package. What on Earth makes you think that the Vita will survive by merit of being a $250 accessory?

 

[KillerMan91]

$80. Interestingly enough, the original Xbox had a $100 price drop 6 months after release. It's something you never hear brought up.

PS3 had 200€ price cut in Europe 6 month after release lol.

 

[Polk]

I think Sony needs to start the Vita revival from Japan. I get that Vita is a Sony Europe product but SCEI needs to be the one who push that system in Japan as Japan is the only region in the world where developers are still making handheld games.

There's big problem though. Vita is too expensive to develop on for many Japanese developers.
PSP was saved because budgets were similar to PS2 (and MH) and 3DS is next best thing budget wise.

I don't think there's enough games that could be 'bought' by Sony to release in next 12 months nor Sony has enough money to burn to fund enough titles.

 

[A Human Becoming]

PS3 had 200€ price cut in Europe 6 month after release lol.

I don't doubt you, but do you have a source for that number? That's pretty shocking. They probably masked it by saying they were discontinuing a model I'm guessing?

 

[Taurus]

The xbox and GC never got to $150 if I remember right.

What? GC bundle with Mario Kart was sold for $99.

 

[QaaQer]

That's a heavily optimistic scenario. The PS4 isn't packaged with a Vita. People are going to have to go out of their way to spend so much for an overpriced accessory that adds little value to their PS4 (which is already priced outside of mainstream). Only a severe price drop accompanied with it will do something tangible for the Vita.

It's basically the GC/GBA connectivity thing all over again. Only one console will remain appealing, and it won't be for the connectivity.

We shall see. All I know for sure is that ps4 hardware based off screen play won't hurt sales.

Wii U is failing with Off-TV play as a part of a cheaper package. What on Earth makes you think that the Vita will survive by merit of being a $250 accessory?

Assuming Vita is sold at a profit, why wouldn't it survive? All the sunk costs are sunk. hell, they still make this thing:

Casette Player

 

[Basileus777]

Assuming Vita is sold at a profit, why wouldn't it survive? All the sunk costs are sunk. hell, they still make this thing:

Retailers are who determines whether or not it lives. Their shelf-space is not a sunk cost.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Assuming Vita is sold at a profit, why wouldn't it survive? All the sunk costs are sunk.

At launch Kaz said the PSVita would take three years to become profitable, and that was based on their initial projections (which have been downgraded).

So even if each unit is not sold at a loss, the entire platform remains in the red.

Here is the original quote from Reuters 2011:

...the aim is to make a profit on hardware sales of the new handheld PlayStation Vita in less than three years.

 

[Exterminieren]

Assuming Vita is sold at a profit, why wouldn't it survive? All the sunk costs are sunk. hell, they still make this thing:

Casette Player

How many major albums are released on cassette nowadays?

If people aren't making Vita games, then it isn't going to survive, accessory or not.

Not to mention that's matured tech, retailing for a fifth of the price of the Vita. It's not even remotely a comparison.

 

[Jamix012]

At launch Kaz said the PSVita would take three years to become profitable, and that was based on their initial projections (which have been downgraded).

So even if each unit is not sold at a loss, the entire platform remains in the red.

Here is the original quote from Reuters 2011:

You're missing the point, that's a sunk cost. If you look at the bits of hardware in the Vita per unit they're making a profit (at least that's what's being claimed), I'm not saying it will survive but you're kind of overlooking the whole point being made.
Whether it covers the opportunity cost, well...

 

[Opus Angelorum]

You're missing the point, that's a sunk cost. If you look at the bits of hardware in the Vita per unit they're making a profit, I'm not saying it will survive but you're kind of overlooking the whole point being made.
Whether it covers the opportunity cost, well...

It may well be profitable now, but until they return the entire cost of creating the platform it's irrelevant.

 

[Can Crusher]

Pretty normal stuff considering where we at in the generation, and how digital sales are getting a bigger split of the market than before.

Very worrying Wii U stuff, since I honestly really don't believe that a console can be around for one year, basically bombing month to month, and then just see a big jump in sales. Specially when two other competing products are coming in with more weight and hype.

 

[Striek]

I don't doubt you, but do you have a source for that number? That's pretty shocking. They probably masked it by saying they were discontinuing a model I'm guessing?

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/sony-to-discontinue-60gb-playstation-3-in-europe

Thats more or less what happened. It was a 100 EUR drop on the 60gb and an introduction of the 40gb for 400 EUR, but to be fair it would've been a 100 EUR difference if EU had ever gotten the 20gb model like the other regions.

 

[Jamix012]

It may well be profitable now, but until they return the entire cost of creating the platform it's irrelevant.

Irrelevant to whom exactly? It is a sunk cost meaning that as long as it's profitable now (and overcoming the opportunity cost) it should still be on the market.
If they money they spend making 100k Vitas a month would earn them more profit elsewhere and the cost in terms of mindshare of abandoning and withdrawing the Vita from the market is small then yes: withdraw the Vita. As it stands the mindshare cost is likely too high and it's probably still better to have the Vita as a super Niche device than investing elsewhere.

 

[XOMTOR]

That's a heavily optimistic scenario. The PS4 isn't packaged with a Vita. People are going to have to go out of their way to spend so much for an overpriced accessory that adds little value to their PS4 (which is already priced outside of mainstream). Only a severe price drop accompanied with it will do something tangible for the Vita.

It's basically the GC/GBA connectivity thing all over again. Only one console will remain appealing, and it won't be for the connectivity.

Agree, PS4 remote play driving Vita sales in any significant number seems a stretch goal; it's as niche a setup as I can envision. It may enjoy a modicum of "success" with gamers as long as the connectivity is impeccable but I highly doubt average consumers are gonna sit up and take notice. Besides, isn't PS4 supposed to have connectivity with tablets and smartphones as well?

 

[chico]

so right now the wii u is a console for hardcore Nintendo fans who cant live without mario & co.

Nintendo needs an exit plan... the sales will drop even more when Xbone/PS4 are available.

 

[michaelius]

As much as I love my Vita, I have no problem with Sony kicking it to the curb to focus on PS4 projects. PS4 is infinitely more important.

I would have liked to see at least one of the shuttered studios (SOCOM devs, Studio Liverpool, Superbot, etc.) churn out Vita games though.

As I see it Vita long term situation is going to be dependant on PS4 success.

If PS4 is succesfull it will:

- create a strong userbase of PSN+ users who will have PSV games collections before they own the console itself
- make a streaming to Vita lot more atractive
- free some of Sony resources and make them more willing to take risks.

 

[Sheroking]

so right now the wii u is a console for hardcore Nintendo fans who cant live without mario & co.

Nintendo needs an exit plan... the sales will drop even more when Xbone/PS4 are available.

I bet you a shiny nickel they more than triple month-to-month after the holiday season.

As I see it Vita long term situation is going to be dependant on PS4 success.

If PS4 is succesfull it will:

- create a strong userbase of PSN+ users who will have PSV games collections before they own the console itself
- make a streaming to Vita lot more atractive
- free some of Sony resources and make them more willing to take risks.

PS3 level hardware requires PS3 sized teams and resources.

If Sony can't be bothered to do it, nobody else will. It's just DOA.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Irrelevant to whom exactly? It is a sunk cost meaning that as long as it's profitable now (and overcoming the opportunity cost) it should still be on the market.
If they money they spend making 100k Vitas a month would earn them more profit elsewhere and the cost in terms of mindshare of abandoning and withdrawing the Vita from the market is small then yes: withdraw the Vita. As it stands the mindshare cost is likely too high and it's probably still better to have the Vita as a super Niche device than investing elsewhere.

I'm not suggesting the PSVita be pulled, but any future investments will likely be heading to the PS4.

 

[QaaQer]

Retailers are who determines whether or not it lives. Their shelf-space is not a sunk cost.

Wallmart etc? dunno what kind of turn over they expect or how much pull Sony has with them. But Gamestop etc? They will stock ps4 peripherals, and will make accommodations for what sony wants to push. So at a minimum, Vita will be for sale at game centric retailers.

At launch Kaz said the PSVita would take three years to become profitable, and that was based on their initial projections (which have been downgraded).

So even if each unit is not sold at a loss, the entire platform remains in the red.

yup. That doesn't change the fact that, looking forward, the Vita is a profit generating asset* that increases the saleability of the PS4 platform; and, as such, it makes no financial sense to discontinue it.

I suppose a case could be made that if they had a replacement for Vita in the wings, its demise might be hastened. But I really doubt we will see another dedicated handheld from Sony. Which is too bad because they did pump some serious money into handheld game production, and there might be some developer job losses.

So, the ps4 peripheral angle pretty much guarantees Vita will be around for years yet. How much non-ps4 content will be released and how much Sony will be spending on portable game development? I have no idea.

*assuming they make money on each sale, ignoring sunk costs.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

It may well be profitable now, but until they return the entire cost of creating the platform it's irrelevant.

Not really. If Vita is raising the division operating profit margin then that is a positive, regardless of sunk costs. Especially with a product coming onto the market that has negative margins (PS4). Whatever contribution that Vita makes to their bottom line is positive.

 

[SmokyDave]

PS3 level hardware requires PS3 sized teams and resources.

If Sony can't be bothered to do it, nobody else will. It's just DOA.

It isn't PS3 level hardware, it's a smartphone in a sexier case.

 

[Y2Kev]

Shinra, I'm afraid Sanzaru basically broke up after sly 4, no? Weren't there big layoffs?

 

[Napalm_Frank]

Shinra, I'm afraid Sanzaru basically broke up after sly 4, no? Weren't there big layoffs?

Is this true? Like bigger than your usual post game layoffs? Cause that would be surprising. Sly 4 has most likely beaten Sonys expectations by quite a bit and the game had like zero marketing. The damn game refuses to drop from the PAL nordic charts too. It has beaten quite a few new releases months after release.

I'd be surprised if they weren't working on Sly 5 (or some other IP for Sony like Jak or Ratchet).

You sure you ain't thinking about Superbot?

 

[Captain Smoker]

Not really. If Vita is raising the division operating profit margin then that is a positive, regardless of sunk costs. Especially with a product coming onto the market that has negative margins (PS4). Whatever contribution that Vita makes to their bottom line is positive.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=514688&highlight=

Now that we know their 400$ - pricepoint & the overall product, do you have an update on this:

"These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time."


What are the margins for the retailers? Sony is going to sell it for less than 400$ to them.

Seems like they'll loose a lot of money on every unit.


Edit: Ok, they'll balance it with online fees and other stuff (but servers are going to cost a lot of money too).

 

[Starchasing]

Pretty normal stuff considering where we at in the generation, and how digital sales are getting a bigger split of the market than before.

Very worrying Wii U stuff, since I honestly really don't believe that a console can be around for one year, basically bombing month to month, and then just see a big jump in sales. Specially when two other competing products are coming in with more weight and hype.

I think the key word here is hype. I expect PS4 and Xbox1 to bomb as hard or more than Wiiu. The world is a much different place right now... and i dont see a 400$ or a 500$ home console making any splash.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Seems like they'll loose a lot of money on every unit.

I think $100 is a fair estimate, if not more.

 

[Captain Smoker]

I think $100 is a fair estimate, if not more.

Probably.

Do we have any numbers on the initial PS3-loss they made?

 

[Rlan]

Also for a hint of June XBLA sales, State of Decay is doing damn well:

 

[EmCeeGramr]

The relationship between Vita and Sony right now is like some weird 19th century parent who keeps showing you photographs of their baby and talking about what a beautiful child they are and how happy they must be and you notice "wow that baby sure looks peaceful in those photos" but you never see the parent actually with the baby and then one of your neighbors tells you that the baby died a year ago and the photos are those 1800s dead baby pictures.

 

[Aquamarine]

Poor Fuse. :-(

 

[Napalm_Frank]

Poor Fuse. :-(

?

We still have no idea about the numbers, no?

 

[Nibel]

The relationship between Vita and Sony right now is like some weird 19th century parent who keeps showing you photographs of their baby and talking about what a beautiful child they are and how happy they must be and you notice "wow that baby sure looks peaceful in those photos" but you never see the parent actually with the baby and then one of your neighbors tells you that the baby died a year ago and the photos are those 1800s dead baby pictures.

Fuck :lol

 

[KillerMan91]

Probably.

Do we have any numbers on the initial PS3-loss they made?

And no. they are not going to lose anything close to $100 per PS4.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=514688&highlight=

Now that we know their 400$ - pricepoint & the overall product, do you have an update on this:

"These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time."


What are the margins for the retailers? Sony is going to sell it for less than 400$ to them.

Seems like they'll loose a lot of money on every unit.


Edit: Ok, they'll balance it with online fees and other stuff (but servers are going to cost a lot of money too).

Yes, that's my thread. There is a revision of the figures in the works though, should be ready later today or tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

3DS finally entering beast mode outside of Japan. Will be very interesting to see the Animal Crossing impact next month, and of course fall will be crazy with the pokemania followed by Link to the past 2

 

[Forkball]

Finally, an NPD thread where this gif is mostly appropriate.

I'm really interested to see if the lull of sales these months are really because people are waiting for next gen.

 

[Basileus777]

3DS finally entering beast mode outside of Japan.

114k is beast mode?

 

[maabus1999]

Not really. If Vita is raising the division operating profit margin then that is a positive, regardless of sunk costs. Especially with a product coming onto the market that has negative margins (PS4). Whatever contribution that Vita makes to their bottom line is positive.

Sony as a whole has horrible operating margins, so that wouldn't surprise me if the Vita is currently a net asset.

 

[Aquamarine]

?

We still have no idea about the numbers, no?

Well it's not in the top 10...