metalslimer
Member
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Media Create Sales: Week 31, 2013 (Jul 29 - Aug 04)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Did it?
I'll move this to the next page so it doesn't get buried:
Code:
Bayonetta PS3
2009-10-26 1 138,430 138,430
2009-11-02 8 29,120 167,550
2009-11-09 17 10,017 177,567
2009-11-16 24 5,121 182,688
2009-11-23 0 4,691 187,379
2009-12-21 0 0 196,150
2010-12-20 0 0 206,142
Xenoblade:
2010-06-07 1 79,163 79,163
2010-06-14 5 20,276 99,439
2010-06-21 21 10,064 109,503
2010-06-28 28 6,397 115,900
2010-07-05 30 4,223 120,123
2010-12-20 0 0 141,059There was a Bayonetta PS3 re-release that sold 11,485.
metalslimer
Member
So nearly 60% first week. That's not really stellar and not much better than bayonetta
The Xenoblade number is higher on Media Create (160k-ish), and I believe there is an updated famitsu number around the same number. I think that garaph number is old.
It's possible. I unfortunately don't have them handy.
We're ultimately looking at 138,430 / 217,627 versus 79,163 / 160K in that case still, which isn't /that/ far off in legs though IMO, especially given the size of numbers we're working with here.
Coldnoodle
Member
GOGOAT
Famitsu hasn't updated Xenoblade since... I don't know... maybe 2010.
The Last update for Media Create is 187k by the end of 2012 according to Geimin.
Okay at 187K that would be a notable difference in legs.
Out of curiosity, do they have Bayonetta higher than it was in 2010 by Famitsu?
Bayonetta (PS3) was at 212.628 in 2010 according to MC.
Why is FFXIV on the list for a "big title"? Has FF in its name doesn't automatically make it big in Japan.
Raising FW forecast from 30K to 40K!
If that's bar you are setting, every single title sold less than DC FW and LT would be considered a financial disappointment.
If you swap number from 160K to 187K, it would be a noticeable difference - 43% FW/LT ratio to to 64%. One can sell 130% more after FW comparing to only 60%.
EDIT: Beaten
If you swap number from 160K to 187K, it would be a noticeable difference - 43% FW/LT ratio to to 64%. One can sell 130% more after FW comparing to only 60%.
EDIT: Beaten
Yeah I ceded Xenoblade.
I was thinking it was closer to The Last Story performance wise (or at most only doubling), but couldn't check on my phone at the time.
Code:
The Last Story
2011-01-24 1 109,704 109,704
2011-01-31 7 19,754 129,458
2011-02-07 14 8,506 137,964
2011-06-20 0 0 154,145
2011-12-19 0 0 157,35922.464 in 2012 (Media Create)
test_account
XP-39C²
I dont know, but dont think that they're saying that games are worth less just because it is on a Nintendo platform. The WiiU is selling pretty bad, so a price drop will come sooner or later.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Yes, but it's 3am in Japan right now.
Shhh...
Rather than be depressed about w101 sales later, I think I'll just get through my grief now ;_;
It's okay, I'm actually surprised a game like this with the budget that has been hinted to is being made at all!
Thank god
Are you sure that 100k shipment is for One Piece? This blog says 100万 shipment. That means one million in japanese (this caracter 万 is four 0). Maybe is talking about another game??
By the way, I read on Sinobi on wednesday, that MH4 first shipment now exceeds one million copies.
metalslimer
Member
First shipment needs to be at least 500k more if not double. The game will have at least a 1.5 million opening and likely a good bit higher.
That one million number is for "a certain big title", which is obviously Monster Hunter 4, and not One Piece Romance Dawn.
That was what I thought.
So, Sinobi and that blog agree that MH4 first shipment is one million (for the moment).
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Thank you Nirolak. Looks like people can't get around the idea that this game has a higher budget than Bayo and Bayo did not meet their sales expectations.
Bayo opened with 200k iirc, but thats impossible for W101 especially on the WiiU. I'm expecting 50k. Its on this situation were even doing 100k (which may seem wonderful considering how this game was advertised previously) would still mean it would be a bomb. Anything below 50k truly is a mega bomba.
Also about the 2 days thing. I'm not inclined to believe this title will have such good legs that judging its commercial success in its opening week would be inaccurate.
Before that, does anyone knows what are nintendo expectations about it? without that, the whole talk is pointless. Nintendo already published a lot of titles on "goodwill". Others they tried to make a franchise from it... its hard to know based on the budget.
Nintendo knows the state of its platform. I dont think they are expecting this to do wonders, so neither do us. We all want it to do good, but i dont think we can talk about expectations. 100k first week (which is not going to happen at all) would be an astounding result.
Nintendo knows the state of its platform. I dont think they are expecting this to do wonders, so neither do us. We all want it to do good, but i dont think we can talk about expectations. 100k first week (which is not going to happen at all) would be an astounding result.
shinra-bansho
Member
EDIT: I really don't see W101 having "Nintendo legs."
You're disagreeing with the premise on the assumption they had much higher expectations. One can have very low expectations and this level of sell-through would probably still fail to meet them, and therefore still serves its purpose as a barometer for whether future Yakuza games are worthwhile.
Releasing a pack that had ports of every Yakuza game could have been a potentially better test. It would have also required much more in terms of resources. It would also then come with much greater expectations.
This was a low cost way of seeing if the Wii U increased the audience they could address for Yakuza games, and it likely doesn't.
Nagoshi openly said they had low expectations of sales. I don't know what those expectations were, but failing to meet even those expectations is bad.
You're disagreeing with the premise on the assumption they had much higher expectations. One can have very low expectations and this level of sell-through would probably still fail to meet them, and therefore still serves its purpose as a barometer for whether future Yakuza games are worthwhile.
Releasing a pack that had ports of every Yakuza game could have been a potentially better test. It would have also required much more in terms of resources. It would also then come with much greater expectations.
This was a low cost way of seeing if the Wii U increased the audience they could address for Yakuza games, and it likely doesn't.
Looking at those W101 commercials, I think they may have been trying to avoid the Western confusion that Nirolak was talking about (one or two threads ago). I don't really understand the language so I could very well be overthinking it, but the narrator's dropping terms like "sentai" and "henshin". The ending shot shows the heroes in full masked form instead of their usual smaller masks, for example.
The advertisements are still a horrible case of too little too late, I'm sure, but I would be surprised if that confusion is one of the game's problems.
The advertisements are still a horrible case of too little too late, I'm sure, but I would be surprised if that confusion is one of the game's problems.
Sammy Samusu
Member
It begins!
Amazon Watch:
Pokemon X #1
Pokemon Y #2
Pokemon X more popular, as it should.
Amazon Watch:
Pokemon X #1
Pokemon Y #2
Pokemon X more popular, as it should.
No, I'm disagreeing with the premise that this port is in any way a qualitative measurement of whether or not Yakuza games are viable on wii u. It has nothing to do with expectations or how bad the sales were. The only way it could answer that question is if it had been met with overwhelming demand, which is something nobody expected and was practically outside the realm of probability.
I'm also NOT saying that Sega wont interpret it the same way you do. I'm disagreeing with the very nature of the experiment which was designed with no other possible outcome but failure, and in doing so, I reject the notion that any conclusions can be drawn from its faulty premise. You've said on at least two occasions now that this proves Yakuza games are not worthwhile on the system and I'm saying using it as an objective proof is foolish on its face.
That's not to say though that Sega wont agree with you like metalslimer was saying earlier, I just believe the conclusion is rather ridiculous.
shinra-bansho
Member
The experiment is only "designed with no other outcome then failure" if one assumes the metric for success is set at a wholly unattainable level. That expectations are for "overwhelming demand." Sega made quite clear there was no expectation of the latter.
That Yakuza games are not worthwhile are what I assume Sega will conclude. I don't know what their expectations were. I do not personally think they had unrealistic expectations of it selling very well.
That Yakuza games are not worthwhile are what I assume Sega will conclude. I don't know what their expectations were. I do not personally think they had unrealistic expectations of it selling very well.
I'm not saying Sega expected it to sell with great demand, I even specified clearly that nobody expected such an outcome.
What I'm saying is using Yakuza HD as a means of evaluating a market is idiotic. So their expectations were low? Ok, say they were met. Then what. Would that show the franchise has a market on the system? No, of course not. Low sales will always still be low sales, and for a franchise whose primary market is based domestically, low sales for a relatively middling franchise means meager profits for future support, if not an outright loss. Meeting "low expectations" would have proven absolutely nothing concerning the longevity of the franchise on the platform.
Sales fail to meet expectations? So that means there's no market for this franchise on the platform, right? The answer here is a definite MAYBE. You have to look at the product itself and the circumstances of its release and judge whether a market for it was even probable to begin with. You're coming to an incredibly lazy conclusion simply because it plays into the narrative you've been backing for so long now. I'm not even saying the WiiU-doom-speak you spout every day is necessarily wrong, just that in this particular case, this was an incredibly flawed piece of test software. There was no "metric for success" here because even meeting low expectations would not have indicated a viable market for the franchise.
It would be equally moronic for Sega or anyone else to affirm that Wii U was a great market for Yakuza if it debuted at 6.7k, which would be an equivalent software:hardware ratio as Yakuza HD on PS3 which sold 58k in its first week to a userbase of 8.6 million. Hell, I'd say the same if it had sold 20-30k, which would have been outrageously absurd. Even expecting a debut just under 7k would be exceptionally stupid considering this is port is a year old in a market that's in even worse condition. This was a poorly conceived product designed to sell to no one on the Wii U.
You're coming to this with the assumption that the only possible conceivable reason a year old port of a collection of up-ports of games that came out 7 and 8 years ago would fail to sell is because it's not appropriate for that platform. Now, you could make the case (and I know you really like to do so) that the wii u is a dead platform to begin with and that NO titles are really viable on the system, in which case the discussion no longer needs to involve the Yakuza series at all, and the performance of the title in question is ultimately moot.
shinra-bansho
Member
Attach rates on early life systems are typically higher. Notwithstanding that, if their expectation was that it was to match the PS3's late life attach rate for this title, and it managed or exceeded that goal, then I don't know why you're assuming the conclusion would be that there is no market for the title or that it would be entirely "moronic" for Sega to draw conclusion that it may be worthwhile to consider future support.
Do you really think Sega put a game out that regardless of the outcome they would draw the same conclusion? That served no purpose whatsoever to their future decisions? They just like wasting money?
Again, you don't have to agree with the premise, you don't even have to agree with the conclusion, but the rationale was plainly obvious. It is the same rationale behind numerous other test games.
I didn't say this was the best "test" possible. But it was presumably the lowest cost and the easiest. I offered an alternative hypothetical "test" - a collection of all the Yakuza titles - significantly higher investment required, significantly higher expectation, significantly higher metric for success as a condition for future support.
I don't think that there is a sizable market for Yakuza titles on the Wii U, that doesn't mean I don't concede there are other factors involved in the product having poor sales. As others have noted, there is a difference between selling poorly and selling less than 10% of what's already likely a very low shipment.
You disagree that the conclusion to be drawn from such atrociously bad sales, even within the context of the title in question, is that there isn't a substantial market for such a title. That's fine. I'm not going to assume it's part of some "Wii U will be fine, there's a hidden audience there for all sorts of third party titles, there's a huge market for core games there, really there is, third party publishers are just doing it wrong." narrative.
I do think some conclusion can be drawn from such atrociously bad sales, even within the context of the title in question, is that there isn't a significant market for the franchise in question, and for games like it, considering other software titles on the system have performed similarly poorly, and we also have data from other regions that shows a similar trend for certain titles compared to others.
Invariably, every third party title that has come out people have found a "reason" for the poor sales performance, beyond the Occam's razor of there simply not being a particularly large market for it. Marketing. Late. Too expensive. Missing a feature. Performs slightly worse. Heatwave. Do such extenuating factors contribute to a degree; most assuredly I'm sure they do. Is there still an underlying common thread in terms of audience make-up, assuredly as well - unless one thinks that Just Dance 4, for example, was such a bastion of quality that it managed to overcome all of these factors to sell better than other titles.
Holy crap, man, no! I think it was a bad decision and a waste of time to put this port out at all. Of course they didn't waste money intentionally, that doesn't mean they didn't approach this title idiotically. If you try to sell Christmas decorations in July and fail, it doesn't mean there isn't a market for Christmas decorations, it doesn't even mean your decorations are bad, it means you're a goddamn idiot.
Mmmh, so far we've seen clear improvements in W101's ranking in Japan, a sign that the Direct worked...and I know this is just a Japan sales thread, but I think it'd be interesting to look at how ND could affect preorders also outside Japan, for the sake of the comparison.
Japan: 274th --> 35th
UK: 236th --> 78th
Germany: 369th --> 133rd
US: 430th --> 163rd
France not included since there's no "Movers and Shakers" chart there.
Japan: 274th --> 35th
UK: 236th --> 78th
Germany: 369th --> 133rd
US: 430th --> 163rd
France not included since there's no "Movers and Shakers" chart there.
If there were 10 Pokemon SKUs, they will just fill in the first 10 places instantly.
This is Pokemon.
TheXfactor
Member
my goodness
BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO
Junior Member
my goodness
What are you surprised about?
Immaculate
Banned
Let's put this in another way. If Wii U version came out in December and PS3 version now would there be big difference at sales?
I doubt things would be very different.
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
Why is all blame on Nintendo fans? I don't remember a law that forbids that anyone buys a Nintendo console if there are games he wants to have, if he is not a Nintendo-fan. Did I miss this?
It's the same thing that happened with Grasshopper's games. If the game fails on a Nintendo console, blame the fans, call them casuals. If it fails on Sony or Microsoft, they are a cursed niche developer or something.
PdotMichael
Banned
Well, Grasshopper's most succesful game was a PS3/360 developement.
Sammy Samusu
Member
NMH1 Wii is their most successful game, I believe.
There's one for France: http://www.amazon.fr/gp/movers-and-shakers/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsms
France: 128th --> 43rd
test_account
XP-39C²
Who have said that a game with a big budget and bigger production value that failed on PS3 or Xbox 360 is because the developer is niche?
my goodness
Nintendo to buy Japan.
Gianni Merryman
Member
my goodness
What about MH4?