Microsoft successfully expanded their market into that casual demographic they were looking for.
Just personally speaking, I have 3 girlfriends who all have Kinects, Dance Central, Zumba Fitness, Your Shape Fitness, Kinect Sports, Yoo Star, and Michael Jackson are the big hits with them. They are all previous Wii owners, and have never owned consoles since NES/SNES as kids.
My sister too is in that list. Between the slim and Kinect MS definitely has a shot of making up that 1 million deficit they have in Europe. Asia is a lost cause for them, has been for quite some time.
Asia is the sole reason Sony is catching up, but like I said, if MS can get some momentum in Europe, just enough to close the gap, then there is a chance that Sony will still never catch up.
Again, not that it matters. Nintendo is in first, Sony and MS are tied for second. You might as well look at it like that, a 3 million difference in installed base is negligable all things considered. However, if and when Sony does catch up/surpass, heads will roll and it will be a big pyschological victory for Sony. The only way I see MS holding them off is if Kinect is an ok success in Europe, they continue the momentum with price cuts, Gears of War, and Forza in Europe.
I also think that Kinect is going to have a monster holiday in the West, especially if Nintendo holds off releasing Cafe until 2012, that will be easy pickings for MS, and could actually increase their lead over Sony by years end.