LiquidSolid
Member
Microsoft have thought a lot of things would be good for them over the last year or two and how have they worked out in the end?
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American McGee on Microsoft's Decision to Release Xbox One in China
- Thread starter KillerIsJed
- Start date
Microsoft have thought a lot of things would be good for them over the last year or two and how have they worked out in the end?
Sylvrfonic
Member
Man, what a huge gamble. They could open the Chinese market for everyone if they do it right. If they succeed they will make a fortune.
They've cracked down on piracy. This is how the last 3 Marvel movies have made $300 million in China and TV shows are getting a lot of licensing revenue, and why you can no longer find many pirated movies on the major streaming sites, many torrent sites are blocked, etc.
In Shanghai I went to a mall that I think was about 9 stories, lol. The scale of piracy (well, everything really) in China is pretty overwhelming.
Nightengale
Member
FranXico
Member
I was in Peru two years ago for my wedding, and my father in law showed me a mall that was crawling with pirate software stores. For a few soles, you can literally go to any of these stores, pick any software, and they'll burn a pirate DVD for you right there.
He jokingly told me "Thinking of making money selling software around here, heh? Think again..."
I can only imagine this being even more widespread in China.
Selling consoles back to the people who put it together.
Jokes aside, it's not going to go well, Try South America and get those countries to remove the crazy tariffs, promote game development from that region and then sell those to other markets. That's a wholly unique culture to have games in the perspective of, it'll be something fresh.
Jokes aside, it's not going to go well, Try South America and get those countries to remove the crazy tariffs, promote game development from that region and then sell those to other markets. That's a wholly unique culture to have games in the perspective of, it'll be something fresh.
Companies have already broke into the Chinese game market. The online games market was worth $13.7b last year (PC and Mobile almost exclusively F2P) and it's the fastest growing market. Consoles exist already, both Chinese made ones and import consoles but they haven't made a dent in the market.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-2013-video-game-market-668542
down 2 orth
Member
He's right on every point.
I see only two ways this can play out:
1. Microsoft gets bled dry, losing lots of money and probably intellectual property as well.
2. Their surveillance technology is so good that the chinese government will support them and they end up selling a lot of consoles.
Actually i think both of the scenarios will happen. Enjoy China, Microsoft
I see only two ways this can play out:
1. Microsoft gets bled dry, losing lots of money and probably intellectual property as well.
2. Their surveillance technology is so good that the chinese government will support them and they end up selling a lot of consoles.
Actually i think both of the scenarios will happen. Enjoy China, Microsoft
REMEMBER CITADEL
Banned
Yes, I'm sure Microsoft (and Sony likewise) have not thought of all those things. Thankfully, we can always rely on the supreme insight of American McGee to show us the way. If those companies are investing large sums of money in launching in China, they're probably doing it for a reason, and not oblivious to the plainly obvious challenges of the market.
Even if most people pirate, there are enough people buying games and getting them localize.
By the way, the West is behind by 4 games.
mercenar1e
Member
Maybe I'm wrong but I believe the gaming habits of Chinese children and teenagers on mobile and PC's are more easily hidden from parents than a console like the PS4/XB1.. The rich might buy it as a status symbol but the chances of them playing it several hours a day/buying several games per year are slim. Microsoft's main focus would be to advertise the TV features of the XB1 over the gaming capabilities and even with that done they'll face major competition that's much cheaper. I'll be surprised if they sell more than 2 million consoles in 2-3 years
REMEMBER CITADEL
Banned
That last part interests me the most. Some fresh development blood is always welcome.
That last part interests me the most. Some fresh development blood is always welcome.
i felt the same way until i saw the amount of crappy games that hit iOS/andriod and pc from the Chinese based development side.
a console could give some room to grow for the game developers in china, it could also just be another pipeline to throw cheaply made/uninspired games into.
theres no fault in MS testing the waters. will it work? probably not.
ChosenPredator
Banned
thats what I was thinking..they've probably thought of everything everyone is bringing up here even before deciding to do that ... just curious what the plan is, hope it's succeessful for them.
The market and income for foreign movies, Apple products, sportswear, clothing and accessories (watches, bags, etc.), have still skyrocketed in China even in the face of a "piracy norm."
LordBaztion
Member
About point 1, I think he understimates the power of advertisement. Certainly the consoles are there but are not heavily promoted for that market. With local advertisement, a new potential market will immediatly open.
They're doing it because its seen as a growth market. No one can blame them, there are a lot of consumers there.
Whether or not they've carefully assessed the suitability of their product in the marketplace is a different story.
This is Microsoft and Sony. Sony in the 21st century is famous for producing products that no one wants, are crippled with flaws that are completely unacceptable, or suffer from horrendous product planning. What we get are Xperia phones with screens shittier than $300 phones from China and a media console box that was way too expensive for the target market and somehow cost Sony $400 per sale.
Microsoft isn't any better with its horrid implementation of Windows 8 that drove most desktop users insane and towards Windows 7, the horrible Microsoft Kin debacle, and their attempt to sell a $500 media box that could have been laden with DRM.
So I think its safe to be somewhat cynical about Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony. It doesn't help that none of the consoles have a particularly coherent position in the marketplace, which is why a lot of people are not bullish about the future of dedicated consoles. It says a lot that the PS4 has the most coherent place in the market, as a "high powered" games console.
b&jy77VjiKn$#F
Member
Where is next gen Alice, McGee?
ChosenPredator
Banned
well he's willing to listen to see what direction to go in with games
Nightengale
Member
Apples and oranges.
Let me explain.
The first thing to contextualize is that China, and many other developing countries, are experiencing growth. More income, more middle class, more purchasing power, etc. This has been true for many years, and it extends across all industries.
The big variable is 'the kind of growth' experienced by the segments of each industry's market.
You quote income for foreign movies growing. Contrary to popular belief, China had always had a thriving cinema/movie industry of its own. They produce a lot of films, the industry is growing, the income and screens grow. It's actually not that badly affected by the so-called piracy norm. Its impact are mostly once movies go to disc, but at the cinema level, consumer purchasing/watching intent hasn't changed much.
Even back in 2005-ish, domestic share of Chinese cinema has been around 50-60%. It remains true even today, but the income has grown. Why? Because there are 20,000 screens today compared to 5,000 screens back in 2005. The market has always been there, the dynamics hasn't shifted, it has only grown proportionally to the growth of the economy.
I won't pretend to be an expert on consumer goods and why BMWs, Mercedes Benz, Gucci, Chanel, Apple products, etc experience tremendous growth there, but China as a market, has always had a dynamic industry when it comes to those range of products. The luxury brands experience great growth there, but there was an existing market that found a sensible root for the brands to go there in the first place.
Now we get to gaming.
Now, I need to emphasis this. The gaming market in China has grown. Piracy norm hasn't somehow ruined the gaming market of China. More games are being made, Tencent is as big as ever, etc.
The concern regarding gaming in China is the kind of growth its experiencing.
The most popular games in China today, are games that were born out of the 'piracy norm' culture, aka games that can't be pirated and were built on business models that allowed gamers to casually sink in little money bit-by-bit into the experience via netcafe models, F2P and point-cards. League of Legends, DOTA, Crossfire, Korean/Chinese MMOs. Mobile games, etc.
Growth in the Chinese gaming scene are in the trajectory of said experiences, which are the inverse of the kind of experiences we tend to associate consoles with. (packaged retail products, $60 premium, etc)
Are there a market for such experiences in China? Obviously. But it's also clear that the market growth for gaming in China is significantly leaning towards the PC-master race and mobile-future king race. Consoles will struggle in China by virtue of what it is.
It's no different from how 'console gaming is dead in Japan' narrative gets played out. The gaming market has grown in Japan... but not console gaming. Mobile/handheld are the ones experiencing that growth.
Messofanego
Banned
Forget it Fool, block that dream. Abandon that memory, it's unproductive. Go... to F2P.
b&jy77VjiKn$#F
Member
Heh, kinda ironic that I'm addicted to DC Universe Online right now.
REMEMBER CITADEL
Banned
I don't doubt for a second that they have, you don't do these things on a whim. Whether their plans will pan out the way they're hoping they would is another thing entirely.
Not anywhere in our lifetime is where it's at.
Canis lupus
Member
If they dont go in expecting to reach a billion people, they could do okay. even with all the f2p/piracy going on, I think there is enough market to get similar sales of a small Euro nation.
CadetMahoney
Member
Pretty much, the ppl saying "I'm sure MS has thought about this seriously". . . yeah they're great at reading markets.
illustri0us
Banned
TAJ
Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
That reeks of "We invented DirectX.".
Can't disagree with his points but I suspect MS, Sony, etc. are well aware of those factors (or they should be). They'll try the market because they have to, because it's too big to ignore, even if going in they know the chance of failure is relatively high (which I BTW think it is and I give any of the big home consoles slim odds to succeed meaningfully outside the grey/black market).
In all likelihood China will be the new Japan for MS, somewhere to see low sales that add a bit to the total and offer some local developers to potentially work with - but you never know until you try and that's why they'll at least take a pop at the market.
In all likelihood China will be the new Japan for MS, somewhere to see low sales that add a bit to the total and offer some local developers to potentially work with - but you never know until you try and that's why they'll at least take a pop at the market.
nature boy
Member
Don't agree with him. If Microsoft (or Sony) take a more localized approach to China (cheaper console and games, localized content and partnership with local companies) I think they can build a market albeit not a tens of million market.
I'd argue the biggest issue is censorship and/or how much western games appeal to the chinese.
I'd argue the biggest issue is censorship and/or how much western games appeal to the chinese.
down 2 orth
Member
You would be surprised how many Western companies come here thinking that they are not oblivious to the challenges of the market, and then learn otherwise. It was and maybe still is the norm.
Nightengale
Member
It's been done. Western-Chinese partnerships are what resulted in:
Call of Duty Online
NBA2K Online
FIFA Online 3
All F2P.
Pretty appealing. DOTA, LoL, a Counterstrike clone ( Crossfire ), NBA2K Online are some of the more popular games in China.
Every single one of them is F2P.
The Jackdog
Member
So hes saying xbox one and ps4 already are in china, people already have them, and theres a ton of piracy....but no one has the time and money for games too?
wtf?
wtf?
That last part interests me the most. Some fresh development blood is always welcome.
Exactly. Hopefully by the time it launches in other territories, the whole "Each console is a dev console" will actually be a reality. More developers is a good thing!
cyberheater
PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
How can the Chinese pirate games on the Xbox One. It's not possible.
Nightengale
Member
It wasn't well articulated, but his points aren't wrong from the sense of 'don't bother.'
a. a console ban lift in China means nothing, as it has always been an unenforced soft-ban. There's no floodgates to be opened, availability of consoles in China has never been an issue.
b. From the perspective of a potential console market, the market is smaller than the population and size of the middle class would imply due to 'reasons', such as games being viewed as a negative influence on children, cultural reasons, etcetc. There's no empirical metrics to this, just perception.
c. Whatever is available of that market potential ( which is still pretty freaking large, because China ) is further diluted due to piracy, netcafe culture, F2P, mobile, etc. So he's saying that the gaming market in China, which is already not as big as the population suggest, ( but still very big ) is further diluted because of the market's focus on content traditionally non-console.
I think what the others meant is that "Chinese won't care (for consoles) if they can't play pirated games (on them)."
Louis Cyphre
Banned
If the XBox One fails in China so what? At least they are willing to offer it, so why is that a bad thing to anyone outside of China? China has a growing population of middle-classed people, but what I would like to see is growth from Chinese game developers. So if that's all that comes out of this then that's a good thing.
cyberheater
PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
Okay. I see.
Haunted
Member
He not only lives in China, he also founded a game development studio in China (Spicy Horse, which gave us the excellent Alice: Madness Returns... and a handful of not so great smaller games). So it stands to reason that he does know a bit more about the Chinese market than most other people commenting on the topic, or at least has a valid perspective on it.
That said, it still is a huge, ever growing market with the most potential out of pretty much any market in the world right now. There are very good reasons to try and get your foot in officially, establishing a proper presence there (and not only be there via unofficial imports and reselling on online websites).
figadapaura
Member
If all of this just results in some good Chinese games, that's all I care about.
jeff_rigby
Banned
BesTV is in Shanghai which is a government sponsored/mandated next generation TV/Internet CATV region. The current STBs are $185. Family Friendly STB with Kinect and a MMORPG games model has been offered as the successful strategy. Educational and casual Indie games are coming. Parents can justify spending for early education via TV/Internet => XTV.