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Analyst Predictions : Wii and DS will fail in 2010

Leondexter said:
They've just GOT to fail this year. Right? RIGHT?
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this is actually what I was thinking exactly... Analysts can't accurately predict what Nintendo will do so they offer up conservative estimates (Nintendo will decline) and then boast about how the market had a healthy year when their predictions turned out too down.

being a modern day video game market analyst is basically playing darts with a blindfold... you have to hit something but damned if you can predict what you'll actually be right on, so just predict any-/every-thing.

edit - though I am confused about them proclaiming down sales for Nintendo....... especially on a record holiday season. They were down yoy for the rest of '09... just like EVERY other system except for PS3 post-slim...
 
LosDaddie said:
Pretty much.

The Wii's success has been awesome if for nothing more than to see all the analysts and fanboys cry.
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At this point analysts and fanboys are interchangable, it's truly disgusting
 
I'm not playing devil's advocate here, I actually believe Natal will be huge at least for the first few months (front loaded sales). I can see the Wii Fit crowd and the Just Dance crowd (type of games that would work perfectly with it) picking it up. And that's a huge crowd! But to what extent will it cut into the Wii market? That's up in the air.
 
donny2112 said:
DS should be down for most of 2010 compared to 2009 in large part due to not having a DSi launch push 1m units in a non-holiday month this year.
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Not expecting much out of the XL?

I wouldn't be surprised if it was down YOY given that it set the record for the greatest hardware sales in a calender year in 2009.
 
Nintendo will fail so hard that they'll retroactively become third party, meaning your copy of Super Mario Galaxy will work on any Xbox 360 tomorrow.

The DS will be unable to stand up to the might of the DS2. Collapse of a giant indeed.
 
LosDaddie said:
Pretty much.
The Wii's success has been awesome if for nothing more than to see all the analysts and fanboys cry.
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To save time we could create a new word to replace these two.
Like fanalysts or analyboys
 
Vizion28 said:
I'm not playing devil's advocate here, I actually believe Natal will be huge at least for the first few months (front loaded sales). I can see the Wii Fit crowd and the Just Dance crowd (type of games that would work perfectly with it) picking it up. And that's a huge crowd! But to what extent will it cut into the Wii market? That's up in the air.
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i still havent seen any software to back the natals success..

milo is a game that maybe appeals to the nintendogs, hey you pikachu or seaman crowd..

but thats pretty much it.. the ricochet demo will probably not sell natals.. maybe UBIsoft willl make Just Dance Natal.. and EA probably will make EA Sports Active Natal.. but Nintendo wont make Wii Fit Natal.. and Wii Fit is the killer app not Just Dance or EA Sports Active..

same with Arc
 
"Yeah because 100% of iPhones buyers want to buy tons of games for it. The calling/music/videos/camera function is only secondary..."









beaten.gif
 
That's like saying 2010 will be the year when this industry finally gets its collective head out of its ass and realizes that all its bullshit for the last 5 years was completely misguided and wrong.
 
Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey about 2010 said:
"We expect 3rd party publishers could benefit significantly over the emerging casual cycle, as their prior experience at the casual market was often tortuous from NintendoÂ’s software domination."
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Natal and Arc to revigorate Petz sales.
 
Well, Iwata himself said that the Wii wasn't healthy in japan, just before launching NSMBWii.

The Wii's fate depends on Nintendo's ability to keep launching such games. For 2010 they have Other M, Zelda, and Galaxy 2, but I can't say those have the same wide appeal of New. They probably have something else under their sleeve for the casual audience.

Arc and Natal won't affect the Wii.

DS is still healthy. Maybe it will lose some steam to mobile phones, but it's too early to say.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Nintendo will fail so hard that they'll retroactively become third party, meaning your copy of Super Mario Galaxy will work on any Xbox 360 tomorrow.
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:lol

HD Mario!
 
mantidor said:
I wouldn't, if you believe this you deserve to fail. Is not like Nintendo's success is a hidden, cryptic thing, everyone knows about it, we geeks in forums know about it, in detail. If company excecutives who actually get paid for this don't know or don't care to find out and listen blindly to such dumb analysis they deserve all the failure they can get.
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Really? If that's the case, can you tell us when the Wii will finally plateau? Seeing as we geeks have it all sorted out?
 
I looked up the analyst's track record - nothing to worry about. He's not exactly the bright boy or on-the-money boy when it comes to predicting the stocks he follows (atvi, erts, ttwo, thq, ubi, and some others). He's usually given negative returns on his recommendations, and except for his recommendation on ERTS, he ranks low among his peers who follow the industry.

Just backing up common sense with some facts :D
 
Souldriver said:
You're twisting the facts. Nobody is claiming the Wii and DS will never stop selling. We're pointing out the stupidity of all the analysts and fanboys who claim that the Wii and DS would fail from day one and that keep saying the same bullshit year after year after year as if they will be somehow vindicated when the Wii and DS after years of great sales indeed stop selling.

Don't try to reverse the roles here. You're topic on the subject reeks of a typical analysts article too btw, except due to interaction with the rest of gaf some insightful stuff came out of it. :P
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Of course I am. Just to illustrate that people tend to get stuck to today's paradigm, not accepting that things might change dramatically in the games industry. And they do - I mean, who thought in early 2004 that Nintendo would be number one in just 3 years?

For the record, I thought DS would bomb hard against PSP, all the way until DS Lite came out. At that point I realized it'll win, the hardware and games were just too good.

What comes to Wii, when they showed the Revolution prototype I thought that they'll be pretty much set for the 3rd place. I only knew it wouldn't fail quite so badly when I saw the video in TGS'05 and knew it'd be a massive success once I saw the crowds in E3 2006. The crowd just loved it.

I do, however, agree with the analyst that both Wii and DS will begin running out of steam. Not because of Natal or Arc - they won't change a thing - but because they have been so massively successful, the casual demographic is happy with what they already have and because the age of their technology is starting to become more obvious. Just like the iPod started to run out of steam last year.

I'm not expecting a sharp decline like the analyst, but rather a gradual erosion of momentum.
 
hey rocky

watch me pull a prediction out of my hat

nothing up my sleeve and... presto! wii will fail this year!

again? but this prediction never works!

THIS TIME FOR SURE!
 
Do they even realize that the Wii is pretty much out of stock in the US (it's not even at Amazon, at the moment, not to mention brick and mortars)? And still sold double the competitors in January?


I don't get their guesstimates.
 
Good shit. "We believe Nintendo needs to cut their price immediately."

*Goes to area stores and sees "Sorry, We're out of Nintendo Wii" signs in the video game cases.*

The analcysts are outdoing themselves.
 
Souldriver said:
You're twisting the facts. Nobody is claiming the Wii and DS will never stop selling. We're pointing out the stupidity of all the analysts and fanboys who claim that the Wii and DS would fail from day one and that keep saying the same bullshit year after year after year as if they will be somehow vindicated when the Wii and DS after years of great sales indeed stop selling.

Don't try to reverse the roles here. You're topic on the subject reeks of a typical analysts article too btw, except due to interaction with the rest of gaf some insightful stuff came out of it. :P
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Even though I disagreed with a lot of what Chittagong himself said, his thread yesterday was vastly better considered than this analyst's asinine drivel.

What did he base his predictions on? Playground gossip from a bunch of 12 year olds?

He should let GAF do his homework for him.
 
Chittagong said:
Of course I am. Just to illustrate that people tend to get stuck to today's paradigm, not accepting that things might change dramatically in the games industry. And they do - I mean, who thought in early 2004 that Nintendo would be number one in just 3 years?

For the record, I thought DS would bomb hard against PSP, all the way until DS Lite came out. At that point I realized it'll win, the hardware and games were just too good.

What comes to Wii, when they showed the Revolution prototype I thought that they'll be pretty much set for the 3rd place. I only knew it wouldn't fail quite so badly when I saw the video in TGS'05 and knew it'd be a massive success once I saw the crowds in E3 2006. The crowd just loved it.

I do, however, agree with the analyst that both Wii and DS will begin running out of steam. Not because of Natal or Arc - they won't change a thing - but because they have been so massively successful, the casual demographic is happy with what they already have and because the age of their technology is starting to become more obvious. Just like the iPod started to run out of steam last year.

I'm not expecting a sharp decline like the analyst, but rather a gradual erosion of momentum.
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Agree on all accounts.

I just didn't like how you implied gaf was living in fantasy world and not the analysts. At least when gaf gets hit in the face with the hard facts (DS and Wii selling gangbusters despite initial predictions and sentiments), it accepts these facts and moves on. The "analysts" however have been closing their eyes for the facts for about 4 years now, and have at no point just accepted that the Wii is this gens winner. Year after year they keep talking about the Wii 'failing' (as if that's even possible at this point). The decline of the Wii and DS -that I also expect- this year will be nothing extraordinary, it's just a matter of time before they lose momentum and reach saturation points. But the analysts will somehow paint the picture as if that decline is a "failure" on Nintendo's part and that they were right all along: that the Wii is a fad that was going to fail.
 
Really digging the "fanalysts" thing. Good to see that at least something constructive has come from these predictions!

2006 - "This motion controls thing is just a gimmick, and nobody will want a Wii after they see how technologically superior the Xbox360 and Playstation 3 are."

2010 - "Motion controls are definitely the future of gaming, and now that the technologically superior Xbox360 and Playstation 3 have them, Nintendo (who continues to offer new technologies and the games to go along with them) is doomed. Natal is definitely better, even though we haven't actually seen any compelling software for it yet."

Never change, industry.
 
Analysis is spot on. Expect PSP GO sales to take off, easily doubling DS numbers month to month. I also expect Wii's to start accumulating at retail as sales drop like a rock. Wii sales should fall below PS2. Also expect an uptick in Sega Saturn sales as HDTV penetration increases and consumers discover that their saturns will plug into their new high definition sets.
 
While it is easy to laugh at the analysis here, some of the things predicated make sense. Some of it doesn't, but it isn't like this guy is paid to only analyze the video game sector, so much of his perspective is an outsiders point of view.

Anyways, too many AAA titles is something I whole-heartedly agree with, and I hope that the market corrects itself without sinking any more companies in the process. Wii has seen declines in FY 09, but that is partially due to the massive success that 08 was. Now that everyone has had a nice laugh at this analysts expense, I hope that you also realize that although Wii broke the all time sale record for a month (In December), it still had YoY declines. The mere fact that 2008 was almost assuredly the peak for Wii sales(by that, I mean overall profit, not units) means that the system "is on the decline", but don't take that phrase the way it sounds.

Although Wii still sells absurd amounts, it will most likely never match the 2008 output. Profits are still strong, but the people who invest millions in Nintendo don't care about their profits per se, as there are many other companies who are profitable, they specifically care about growth. Nintendo's stock will not rise unless it grows, and by the logic they teach in business school Nintendo's current product portfolio is on a slow decline and statistically unlikely to lead to financial growth.

Also, there are many factors that many of us don't take into consideration here. The fact that Japan sales have been declining at an alarming rate, which leads to more and more of their profits coming from America, which causes an unfavorable exchange rate hit on profit. Also, due to inflation, the value of each yen goes down every year, so comparing 08 profits to 09 profits with inflation in mind creates an even bigger gap in profit.
 
Kunan said:
I was going to type out a lengthy reply but ":lol" is all that really needs to be said
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I think it is a reasonable to say that the DS and Wii will decline YoY. Although quite a few people assume anything slightly negative against the Wii/DS = Nintendo going 3rd party. Because of this they go up in arms. I think that is riduculous.

That said, a price drop and something like NSMB Wii could lead to this prediction being wrong. Although Wii/DS should still have earth shattering sales regardless.

EDIT: And I don't expect ARC/Natal to be behind this decline.
 
Kilgore Trout said:
The Wii will fail 2007,2008,2009...2010
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The word 'fail' never appears in the article.

The analyst said that they will have difficulty sustaining their current sales levels, which is a difficulty they did face last year and did cause a price cut. But, because the OP trolled the thread title, all we're going to get is 'lol no u fael' posts.
 
meppi said:
Looks like you can't truly call yourself an analyst without making an ass of yourself these days.
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Well, there is the word "anal" in analyst.


Oh shit, i went there.
 
tokkun said:
The word 'fail' never appears in the article.

The analyst said that they will have difficulty sustaining their current sales levels, which is a difficulty they did face last year and did cause a price cut. But, because the OP trolled the thread title, all we're going to get is 'lol no u fael' posts.
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Yes, inaccurate thread titles should be punishable somehow.
 
Guy Legend said:
Also expect an uptick in Sega Saturn sales as HDTV penetration increases and consumers discover that their saturns will plug into their new high definition sets.
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Fuck yeah!

No really, I'm serious.
 
Analysts are idiots. Of course the wii sales have to slow down at some point but if you keep predicting it every single year, it doesn't make you correct when it finally does happen.
 
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