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[h0l211]

http://www.gamasutra.com/features/20061219/wen_01.shtml

Most direct comments by Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan, as always - he actually addresses the fact that he keeps overestimating Xbox 360 hardware sales (source of interest on NeoGAF, at least!):

"I'm pretty disappointed in the Xbox 360. I think Microsoft is doing everything right: Games are good; Xbox Live is amazing; and the console is not prohibitively expensive. Yet people are just not buying. The console is lagging behind my initial expectations by at least 200,000 units per month in the U.S., and I don't know why. It could be that publishers continue to support the PS2, so most consumers don't perceive a need to switch yet.

I think Microsoft over-promised on the 360, led a lot of consumers to believe that there would be millions at launch, and these consumers stopped buying anything (through March) while waiting for their Xbox 360s to arrive. Sony promised nothing (yes, they screwed up the quantities, but did not suggest that retailers advertise or take [PS3] pre-orders); consumers expected nothing, and [PS2] software sales were fine all year. It appears that as long as consumers have current generation titles to choose from, they will buy that software. I think that future declines in current generation software sales will continue to be more gradual than in past transitions."

 

[PhatSaqs]

Pachter = sonycowboy confirmed.

 

[Nerevar]

Pachter = sonycowboy confirmed.

:lol :lol :lol

 

[disappeared]

Pachter: "I'm disappointed in the Xbox 360... and I don't know why."

 

[GONZO]

The only reason that the 360 and the ps3 will have slow adoption rates is because of price. Price rules all, if the next gen consoles stuck to the 199 price structure they would sell through the roof. But 399 and 599 is a hard chunk to swallow for most gaming casual and buying parents.

 

[tahrikmili]

So he's disappointed in the NA sales and not EU/JP? And just because of 200,000 units?

what.gif

 

[3rdman]

The only reason that the 360 and the ps3 will have slow adoption rates is because of price. Price rules all, if the next gen consoles stuck to the 199 price structure they would sell through the roof. But 399 and 599 is a hard chunk to swallow for most gaming casual and buying parents.

QFT...As PS2 gets pushed to the side and prices for the new consoles come down, sales will soar.

 

[bud]

in before the cry

 

[Frankfurter]

So he's disappointed in the NA sales and not EU/JP? And just because of 200,000 units?

what.gif

200k per month.

 

[The Innocent X]

Todays headlines

I`m disappointed I have no idea what I`m talking about, says Pachter

 

[soundwave05]

$199.99 didn't do shit for the GameCube. It was outsold by both the PS2 and XBox in North America pretty much from the get go.

MS problem is they have no foothold with audiences like kids, women, extreme casuals, etc. The price or the quality of the machine is not the issue. Just having a lot of content isn't enough (ask Sega). You have to have the right content, and then you have to do a good job marketing that.

 

[tahrikmili]

200k per month.

My reading comprehension FTL.

 

[Mashing]

Gee, I dunno Mr. Pachter. Mayhaps it has something to do with the price tag?

I've been sayiung for a while now. The United States is the most price conscious country in the gaming universe. It is the #1 factor if a console is purchased or not (why else would the cheap as dirt GBA still be selling 500k a month if it wasn't?

I'm also of the mind that some people won't buy a Xbox 360 or a PS3 until they are able to get HDTV's, thereby slowing the adoption rate of those two systems.

 

[GONZO]

$199.99 didn't do shit for the GameCube. It was outsold by both the PS2 and XBox in North America pretty much from the get go.

MS problem is they have no foothold with audiences like kids, women, extreme casuals, etc. The price or the quality of the machine is not the issue. Just having a lot of content isn't enough (ask Sega). You have to have the right content, and then you have to do a good job marketing that.

That's cause 199 for a machine that couldn't do what the other could, IE: internet, Hard drive, play dvd's was percieved as being too expensive. Nintendo learned from that debacle and what did they do? Price the Wii at 250 this time around much cheaper then the other consoles.

 

[KeithFranklin]

Maybe expecting the 360 at $400 to sell over 400K consoles per month was a bad prediction.

 

[REV 09]

that last paragraph doesn't make much sense. the 360 isn't selling because it's 400 dollars...that's all there is to it really. Once the ps3 runs it's launch course, it'll have the same problems. The wii, has no online, looks to have a big drought in games coming up...yet will still probably continue to sell and sell because of it's cheaper price. Just look at the NPD every month...the cheap stuff sells.

 

[Lapsed]

Patcher is so diplomatic. He says Xbox 360 sales are disapointing but then says, "But Microsoft is doing everything right! What could it be?" Well, if sales are disapointing then Microsoft is obviously not doing something right. It's Patcher's job to analyze why the sales are 'disapointing' but he is passing the buck. :lol I guess he doesn't want to deal with a mob of fanboys.

BTW, I bet this will be a ten page thread... at least

 

[Beer Monkey]

That the 360 can sell as well at $400 as the Xbox did at $200 is amazing, as is the fact that they've managed to not cut the price yet.

Idiots like Pachter expect miracles.

 

[soundwave05]

For budget gamers, what's wrong with the 360 Core pack? That's $299.99 and chances this "casual" audience doesn't yet have an HDTV ... if a $399.99 console is too expensive for you, chances are a $1500-$2000 TV is probably not happening any time soon either.

They bought a memory card for their PS2 and bought the PS2 at $299.99 ... 360 seems to be a no-go. IMO it's a content issue or more specifically a failure on MS' to branch out demographic wise. Maybe the masses simply aren't as impressed with the 360 as the hardcore community is. It wouldn't be the first time these two crowds failed to match up.

I think people also overestimate how many PS2 owners would jump ship. Yes, the PS3 is expensive now, but I think a lot of PS2 owners are going to give the PS3 a fair chance ... meaning a wait and see approach not a typical GAF "OMG! $600 forever!!! Buy 360 ASAP!" type thing.

 

[bud]

I think that december will be a partty good month for MS. I bet sales wil be around 700k.

 

[pheew]

when he predicts 360 to sell 500 million units/month:
"omg you rock, pachter!"

when he finally stops smoking crack:
"boo you suck, pachter!"

:lol

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

They need to flood the 360 with quality content that isn't aimed for "boobs and guns" college kid wankers and drop the price.

 

[Razoric]

when he predicts 360 to sell 500 million units/month:
"omg you rock, pachter!"

when he finally stops smoking crack:
"boo you suck, pachter!"

:lol

What?

 

[NinSoX]

What?

That's what happens when you're too quick to generalize without understanding a thing.

 

[GONZO]

For budget gamers, what's wrong with the 360 Core pack? That's $299.99 and chances this "casual" audience doesn't yet have an HDTV ... if a $399.99 console is too expensive for you, chances are a $1500-$2000 TV is probably not happening any time soon either.

They bought a memory card for their PS2 and bought the PS2 at $299.99 ... 360 seems to be a no-go. IMO it's a content issue or more specifically a failure on MS' to branch out demographic wise. Maybe the masses simply aren't as impressed with the 360 as the hardcore community is. It wouldn't be the first time these two crowds failed to match up.

Nope that doesn't work either, gamers see a 499 premium and a 299 core you know what goes through their head? The core is worse then the premium, I want a premium but I can't afford it. I'll wait. It was a good idea for microsoft to offer two different sku's to allow gamers to enter the market but what they did was make the core look inferior to the premium. And dumb ass sony had to follow Microsofts lead and they're gonna have the same issue's

 

[kojacker]

Give me JSRF+ and I'll bite.

I don't care if the dev team's not together any more, it ain't my problem guv'nor.

 

[dark10x]

Gee, I dunno Mr. Pachter. Mayhaps it has something to do with the price tag?

It costs no more than the PS2 did ($299). Just like the core 360, PS2 also required a memory card in order to save your game. We may call it the "tard pack", but it is perfect for those unwilling to spend more. It's very reasonable.

 

[soundwave05]

I think HDTV is the other problem. A lot of people really feel it's pointless to have a 360 or PS3 until they have an HDTV (and they probably have a point) but aren't about to run and buy a TV just for a game console.

Yes they may have plans to upgrade to HDTV in a few years, but MS or Sony are sure as hell not going to tell them when to make the jump.

 

[Beer Monkey]

It costs no more than the PS2 did ($299). Just like the core 360, PS2 also required a memory card in order to save your game. We may call it the "tard pack", but it is perfect for those unwilling to spend more. It's very reasonable.

I bought a headset, an ethernet adaptor, a component cable, and a memory card for my PS2. by the time I was done, it cost more than my premium 360. The original 'tard pack indeed!

 

[Razoric]

It costs no more than the PS2 did ($299). Just like the core 360, PS2 also required a memory card in order to save your game. We may call it the "tard pack", but it is perfect for those unwilling to spend more. It's very reasonable.

Come on... I'd expect at least you to see how different the markets are now vs when PS2 launched. As Pachter said, the PS2 is still VERY viable and is probably one of the main reasons why 360 has lagged behind his expectations. And it's why PS3 wont be doing nearly as well as people think either.

Price DOES matter and people see PS2 at $129 with the same games as a $3-400 system, they will go for the PS2.

Once the PS2 train finally stops, 360 and PS3 will take over those sales but not until then.

 

[GONZO]

Yeah HDTV's are another big problem. But the rapidly dropping lcd prices should alleviate that issue later this year. What happened this gen is that console manufactures were asking the consumer to invest too much money to play a game. 2k on a tv, and 500 on a system. that crap aint gonna fly.

 

[tahrikmili]

when he predicts 360 to sell 500 million units/month:
"omg you rock, pachter!"

when he finally stops smoking crack:
"boo you suck, pachter!"

:lol

I suppose people with worse reading/comprehension than me do exist.

 

[Mashing]

It costs no more than the PS2 did ($299). Just like the core 360, PS2 also required a memory card in order to save your game. We may call it the "tard pack", but it is perfect for those unwilling to spend more. It's very reasonable.

But isn't the premium outselling the core pack by a pretty good rations (like 4:1)? That would seem to indicate that they are not buy the core (the same goes for the PS3 since stores seem to get lots more 60GB models than 20GB models).

 

[pheew]

pretty funny those 3 were the ones to bite out of all people :lol

 

[Meier]

It costs no more than the PS2 did ($299). Just like the core 360, PS2 also required a memory card in order to save your game. We may call it the "tard pack", but it is perfect for those unwilling to spend more. It's very reasonable.

Do they even sell core packs any more (in America)?

 

[brocke]

anyone else place a political analogy behind the console wars. for me i see ps3 as republican, 360 as democrat, and wii as the green party.

 

[John Harker]

The only reason that the 360 and the ps3 will have slow adoption rates is because of price. Price rules all, if the next gen consoles stuck to the 199 price structure they would sell through the roof. But 399 and 599 is a hard chunk to swallow for most gaming casual and buying parents.

I'm no where near a casual and I still find those prices way too hard to swallow

 

[soundwave05]

Do they even sell core packs any more (in America)?

You can get them anywhere.

 

[hadareud]

200k per month.

yep.

I would say that Pachters performance is more disappointing than the 360's

 

[NinSoX]

Do they even sell core packs any more (in America)?

I saw a stacked skid of them at a Walmart (in Toronto, Canada). They looked untouched.

 

[LOCK]

:lol

Guy is crazy.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I saw a stacked skid of them at a Walmart (in Toronto, Canada). They looked untouched.

The Green stack seemed more picked at than the White one at TRU.

 

[fatigues_gasolini]

The only reason that the 360 and the ps3 will have slow adoption rates is because of price. Price rules all, if the next gen consoles stuck to the 199 price structure they would sell through the roof. But 399 and 599 is a hard chunk to swallow for most gaming casual and buying parents.

There is a $499 PS3, you know.

 

[beelzebozo]

Do they even sell core packs any more (in America)?

they don't sell them, but they stock them.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

Pachter is not very bright.

Xbox 360 is $400 - PS2 and GBA are cheaper than ever right now. PS2 has hundreds of cheap games, many of them recognized classics. So a parent can either spend $150 on a PS2 + game or $380-460 on a 360 + game. The DS is also a very inexpensive machine. Given that, expecting a $400 machine to sell like gangbusters is idiotic, considering how its selling on the same pace or faster than the original Xbox.

You also have to take into account the levels of hype for PS3 and to a lesser extent, Wii. Consumers may have been uncertain about the 360 and its future role once the other machines are released. Now that they are out, we will see the fallout from this. My guess is that given how the PS3 is dogged by almost every outlet of the media (or at the best, nobody is impressed and thinks its the second coming like PS2) and how Wii and Gears of War is being hyped, 360's prospects are sure to improve.

$199.99 didn't do shit for the GameCube. It was outsold by both the PS2 and XBox in North America pretty much from the get go.

That is because Game Cube offered nothing different from its competitors. In fact, in some respects it took a few steps back. Once the price dropped for the machines in 2002, Game Cube was the least bang for the buck. Nintendo systems sell because of Nintendo software. Game Cube was pretty much Nintendo's low point in their history. You cannot expect SSB Melee to keep bringing in millions of people.

Different situation here. All three machines are almost radically different from each other. There will be no Game Cube like machines this generation.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

There is a $499 PS3, you know.

Don't tell us. Tell Planet Earth. I think I read that sentence about eight hundred times a day here but unless you feel like writing it on a sandwhich board and standing in front of Best Buy, it's doing no good.

 

[ToxicAdam]

That the 360 can sell as well at $400 as the Xbox did at $200 is amazing, as is the fact that they've managed to not cut the price yet.

Idiots like Pachter expect miracles.

A good product is a good product. Analysts have seen other devices in other sectors (The Ipod for example) make terrific sales despite a large price tag (in comparison to competitors).


What Pachter is saying (and it's what alot of 360 fans have said) is that the machine is a great product and word of mouth should have inspired some type of sales spikes. It's pretty much been flat all year.

 

[Hunter D]

This guy must not realize that the PS2 is a $130 and is still getting games released on it. As long as the PS2 is kept alive nextgen will be on life support.

 

[BorkBork]

Isn't the 360 selling like crazy in December? He's going to have to backtrack on his statement in January.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Isn't the 360 selling like crazy in December? He's going to have to backtrack on his statement in January.

He predicted 1.25 million sold in December. It will be lucky to hit 750k - 1 mil.


Here is the original report in late August.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=4222306&postcount=1

WMS is predicting monthly sales of 250,000 units of Xbox 360 in August and September, up to 400,000 units in October, and between 750,000 – 1.25 million units monthly in November and December.

Meanwhile, the firm has downgraded its predictions for PS3 sales from 3 million to 2.3 million.

In a posting today, the analyst also added that “sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3”. Through July, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.2 million units. By WMS stats, the installed base should be clear of 5 million by the end of the year.

WMS is also predicting industry-wide year-on-year sales increase of 7% for the month of August, when NPD releases its monthly stats later this week. The analyst reckons on a sales increase up to $360 million. However, the firm warned of more “volatility” in publisher share prices until “the launch quantities of the PS3 and Wii are more certain

So, the PS3 shortages (and Wii surprisingly) have become a reality, so they expected even MORE than their original predictions.