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And, if Nintendo hadn't created the Wii...
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Segata Sanshiro
Member
Sweet, you both have numbers.HyperionX said:
Sharing is caring.
soundwave05
Member
chriskzoo said:
The N64 didn't sell faster than the Wii out of the gate. The reason why it sold more it's first fall was because it was launch in late September, whereas the Wii came out in late November, so it had more time on the market its first fall.
The GameCube did not have a quick start either, it was already tanking in Japan pretty much from the get go and was in big trouble in North America by its first January (2002).
The scenario you're hypothesizing for the Wii ... a console selling that strongly into its second year and then just flat lining into its third year has never happened (ever) in the game business.
If people like Wii Sports ... that's nothing. Nintendo can make Wii Music, Wii Health, Mii World, etc. etc. etc. It's not really a fad ... a lot of people simply don't relate or can't get into Sony/MS more complex brand of gaming period. That's not going to change in 6, 8, 12, or 24 months.
titiklabingapat
Member
If the Wii didnt exist, Elebits wouldn't exist. <3
-ImaginaryInsider
Member
.dmc said:
I think his general point is some games/genres/"specific developer's vision" may not carry over well to the Wii, much in the same way that Wii Sports appeal is sort of lost on traditional consoles/controllers. Looking back, even though the PS2 had uber-sales, Xbox still managed to have exclusive titles and was the preferred choice for certain genres.
The first 4 months (US): http://kotaku.com/gaming/nintendo/charticle-the-first-four-months-249629.php
Front bar is hardware, back bar is software:
Front bar is hardware, back bar is software:
chriskzoo said:The first 4 months (US): http://kotaku.com/gaming/nintendo/charticle-the-first-four-months-249629.php
Front bar is hardware, back bar is software:
*thumbs up*
soundwave05
Member
The N64 really wasn't a failure, it was a genuinely popular console in North America anyway ... it was an economic model that killed it.
If the N64 had even GameCube-level third party support and cartridges were cheaper to make it probably would've outsold the SNES (49 million). They should have just at least made the 64DD type discs the system's standard format.
If the N64 had even GameCube-level third party support and cartridges were cheaper to make it probably would've outsold the SNES (49 million). They should have just at least made the 64DD type discs the system's standard format.
chriskzoo said:The first 4 months (US): http://kotaku.com/gaming/nintendo/charticle-the-first-four-months-249629.php
Front bar is hardware, back bar is software:
That's North America only. Wii's first four months are more impressive than N64's first four months worldwide (Wii was distributed FAR better). N64 only really took hold in NA anyways.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Those are US sales only, and only 4 months. The Wii has been out for six and a half.chriskzoo said:
Here is maybe a long-term view that I haven't heard anyone bring up - could the fact that Wii is bringing in people who were not previous gamers actually HELP 360 and PS3 in the long-term? Seriously, if I'm a casual gamer that gets brought in and kindles an interest in gaming (not just the waggle), is it possible that those gamers (who are likely older with plenty of disposable income) might think "Man, now THOSE systems look incredible" and "move up."
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Fred, given Square's "affiliation", I'm extremely hesitant to put much stock in his numbers.
The problem with comparing Wii's NA numbers to N64's numbers for example or PS2's or PSone's is you're comparing a staggered launch for all 3 legacy platforms to a simultaneous launch. Though not always plentiful during launch, the supply situation was less of an issue as manufacturer had a chance to build up inventory and spread out the huge spike of demand to one territory at a time. (Europe for PSone, PS2 and N64 was also staggered AFTER NA).
Wii sold only 600k in December in the US, and much of that pent up demand spilled in 2007 with huge numbers in January, February, March and April. The only worthwhile comparison to be made is with the PS3 or 360, both of which had some semblance of a global launch but I'm not surprised no one wants to make those comparisons.
Wii sold only 600k in December in the US, and much of that pent up demand spilled in 2007 with huge numbers in January, February, March and April. The only worthwhile comparison to be made is with the PS3 or 360, both of which had some semblance of a global launch but I'm not surprised no one wants to make those comparisons.
soundwave05
Member
chriskzoo said:
If you're a new gamer you're not going to get *another* game system just a few months or probably even years after getting a Wii.
It could help Sony/MS ... like 5-10 years down the line. Some of them might even be able to afford a PS3 by then, lol.
I know lots of people are avoiding the MC threads these days because of the frequent and unfortunate injections of stupid into the discussion, but there is some great stuff posted in there on a regular basis. Just so happens this question of "How well has Wii performed compared to other Nintendo hardware?" came up in last week's MC thread. And a decent piece of analysis (with numbers!) was produced by Square2005. Here it is:
So there you go. Wii ass-kicking re-confirmed.Square2005 said:Guys this is a comparison of the months after all of NIntendo's past home console launches versus the Wii:
Now the NES & SNES are my estimates but I've done alotta research (reading old articles, etc.) to get an idea of how they were selling so it should be fairly accurate at least the LTDs are (NPD reported SNES broke past 1.5m in February '92).
The NES test launched in New York in October 1985 then in LA in Feb. '86 so it wasn't available nationwide until the following year after its test launch so it didn't 'really' launch until late 1986 nationwide.
(BTW this is not from ********).
The N64, GC is of course from the NPD. If anyone has more accurate NES, SNES data please share it and I'll update the graph if it's legit.
NES available nationwide: by Fall of 1986
SNES first available at limited chains (Toys 'R' Us): Aug. 1991, official launch: Sept. 9, 1991.
N64 officially launched nationwide: Sept. 29, 1996
GC " " " : Nov. 18, 2001
Wii " " " : Nov. 19, 2006
So Wii sales are extremely impressive in the States (and of course Japan) post-Christmas compared to the previous record selling Big N console the N64!
chriskzoo said:The first 4 months (US): http://kotaku.com/gaming/nintendo/charticle-the-first-four-months-249629.php
Front bar is hardware, back bar is software:
PS1 and N64, scary.
dammitmattt
Banned
Deku said:
Because that worked for the Gamecube? What about the PS2?
Your logic fails...
Err, I made that argument in this very thread because it describes me exactly. Except for the "move up" thing. More "game on this console too." Wii rekindled my interest in consoles, and now I want a 360 too. Excite Truck wouldn't be the same on 360. Earth Defence Force wouldn't be the same on Wii. They are both awesome.chriskzoo said:
Really? He says its all from NPD except for NES/Genesis.Segata Sanshiro said:
chriskzoo said:
Been brought up many times.
Speaking of which, I remember a friend of mine who was a total Nintendo fanboy. Got a PS1 anyways, caused he wanted to play FFVII (still was a Nintendo fanboy at that time). Just to show you, the lead the Wii has right now probably doesn't mean anything.
soundwave05
Member
HyperionX said:
It means something in Japan for sure .... Sony is in big, big trouble there and will have problems catching Nintendo in Japan.
The Wii could coast off Nintendo + Japanese 3rd party + EA support for years. Winning Japan alone pretty much ensures 4-5 years of support for the platform.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
The divorce from reality here is absolutely staggering.
dammitmattt
Banned
Deku said:
Your point was that the Wii will win because it will be the first and only console to $99. That logic did not hold up last generation.
Come again?
I'm not arguing with you that the Wii will or won't win, I'm just pointing out the gigantic holes in your logic.
And ironically, the smarter the person is, the more likely they are to come up with elaborate rationalizations for the dissonance.I thought your long-term view was that the Wii would lose steam? Sounds like you're really reaching here. So is the Wii going to continue to be a massive success and magically convert them into 360/PS3 owners or is it going to just suddenly stop selling and "fizz out"? Both sound extremely unlikely... but take your pick.chriskzoo said:
soundwave05
Member
Segata Sanshiro said:
The Sony/MS defense force has basically become the GameCube fans circa 2002 who were kinda in their own bubble detached from the reality of the market. It's kinda of eerie how quickly the situation reversed.
TheLegend said:
Sell well through this year and then plateau next summer.
soundwave05 said:
LOL - more like PSP owners. Then again, there is MUCH more I'd rather play on my PSP right now than my DS, just as there is MUCH more coming out for 360/PS3 that I'd rather play than what is coming out on Wii.
The whole point of my argument is that given the advantages Wii already enjoy right now at $250 and the disadvantages it of its rivals, it will be able to get to the psychologically significant $99 mark sooner and will be the only one to get there this generation, giving it a significant advantage in the coming years.dammitmattt said:
I draw no conclusions as to what happened in the past. In fact, I've also been discussing in parallel the folly of comparing numbers from staggered launches with the new regime of global launches. What is happening now is new, insofar as the strategic picture is concerned. I draw no comparisons with the past on these two points - pricing and American numbers at launch.
soundwave05
Member
chriskzoo said:
By next summer it'll be far too late ... if it sells through this year and into the early part of next year, it'll have a userbase north of 20 million because it's also basically got Japan all to itself.
And when that happens ... it's too late for a turnaround. If the system was going to slow it has to happen within the next 2-3 months really.
The window is closing. We should have started to see cracks in the armor by Feb/March/April like with the N64/GC/DC etc. If the system sells stellar into next year ... all the 3rd parties like Square-Enix, EA, Sega, etc. are already going to have new projects well under development for it. These scenarios become less and less plausible every month that goes by and the Wii's userbase continues to grow at a rapid clip.
If it was going to happen, honestly it should have happened already during those really dry months of Jan-March 2007 ... but nothing ... nada.
SouthernDragon
Member
Right. That can be said about the transition going from generation to generation.
As can be seen, those 120 million Sony faithful are starting to transfer to the Wii.
As can be seen, those 120 million Sony faithful are starting to transfer to the Wii.
soundwave05 said:
The folly in your argument is that the console user base is pretty much fixed at around 150 million or so (the impact of Wii may expand this significantly, but it's too early to tell) - and history shows that 80% of those units get pushed in years 3-5 after launch. What happens 7 months after launch is inconsequential.
As for publishers, yes, they will want to put games on Wii to make quick money - but is that console attracting the type of gamer that will want to play (and BUY) those games (FF for example)?
soundwave05
Member
chriskzoo said:
Actually the key year for consoles is that year 2. That's what builds the foundation for year 3/4/5, that second year tells you a lot about how a console is going to fair over the long haul.
What happens 7 months after launch is not inconsequntial ... the game is on *right now*, just because Sony is snoozing sitting on the bench, doesn't mean the other guys are just sitting back doing nothing. Sony's net is getting scored on.
No one gives a crap about Sony's excuses about a 10 year console cycle or the fact that MS has serious problems selling in 2 of the 3 major global markets. Today it's Sony and MS making excuses ... five years ago it was Nintendo making excuses. If you're making excuses rather than selling systems, in my experience watching this business for a lot of years ... you are in trouble.
Month 1/2 you can maybe write off as launch period honeymoon period ... but month 3, month 4, month 5, etc .... the race is on by then, those months absolutely do matter.
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