LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Don't forget to unvote poor Ouro. He may have killed dogs in a past life, but he doesn't deserve this.
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Animal Crossing Mafia |OT| - Making Animal Friends Is Awesome!
- Thread starter Karkador
- Start date
Don't forget to unvote poor Ouro. He may have killed dogs in a past life, but he doesn't deserve this.
Quoting self from prev page and cont.
Barring other options, I think evicting the roomies provides the best forward path while acknowledging the risk inherent therein.
My availability may be extremely limited through Sunday but I will endeavor to participate when possible. I will be completely out of reach Saturday from approx 4am to 4pm EDT give or take a few hours due to a transpacific flight.
New vote overrides old one automatically.
Whenever someone tries the "it's totally okay if we kill them and they're innocent" logic it looks super fishy to me.
Losing 3 townies in a day/night speeds the game towards the Mafia's victory condition, potentially kills information gaining roles, and gives us less time to act on any information gained. The game is always going to get to the point where it gets easier and easier to detect bad guys as the town to mafia ratio decreases, because that's how it works. Accelerating the game to the point that it will inevitably reach is only good for the Mafia, so trying to dress it up as otherwise makes me go "hmmm".
Sorry for post spam, keep forgetting things I wanted to address.
To clarify, any mentions of trees were purely metaphorical.
As far as I can tell we have 0 confirmation that either of the roomies have a role. Seems from some of the earlier posts there may have been confusion.
I listed my vote for franconp as he is listed first on the property, in case that comes into question.
Remember team: We must move forward, not backwards. Upward, not forward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling.
Back to work.
To clarify, any mentions of trees were purely metaphorical.
As far as I can tell we have 0 confirmation that either of the roomies have a role. Seems from some of the earlier posts there may have been confusion.
I listed my vote for franconp as he is listed first on the property, in case that comes into question.
Remember team: We must move forward, not backwards. Upward, not forward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling.
Back to work.
So, the pure statistics of the matter are all true, though I think the news about our specific roles being decided to be together throws most of that out the window. If the roles and alignments weren't randomly placed then we suddenly can't just play the statistics game. (I wish we didn't have to play "guess the designer's intent", but here we are.)
And I guess I might as well do this now.
Really, my town role doesn't really seem to have any particular relation to the roommate situation. I've got "Troublemaker", which lets me, once per game, declare during the night phase that there will be two evictions on the following day. The town would get informed I caused the double vote, but not if I'm town or not. I guess there's some sort of relation between the two of us being able to fall victim to a single vote and me causing people to have to vote for two people, but it certainly doesn't have anything to do with my partner directly or give me any knowledge about them. Any ability to use it effectively seems countered by being in the huge ass target house, since it gets better the later you are in the game, and me lasting late into the game seems pretty unlikely.
And I guess I might as well do this now.
Really, my town role doesn't really seem to have any particular relation to the roommate situation. I've got "Troublemaker", which lets me, once per game, declare during the night phase that there will be two evictions on the following day. The town would get informed I caused the double vote, but not if I'm town or not. I guess there's some sort of relation between the two of us being able to fall victim to a single vote and me causing people to have to vote for two people, but it certainly doesn't have anything to do with my partner directly or give me any knowledge about them. Any ability to use it effectively seems countered by being in the huge ass target house, since it gets better the later you are in the game, and me lasting late into the game seems pretty unlikely.
Karkodor's Post certainly seems to suggest they have a role. He said he placed roles on the map (with the intention of having the 2 in the same spot), then randomly assigned people to the spaces. He said that it was "inaccurate to say that roles were assigned to a space randomly". Given that a normal role without special powers would be an odd choice to have as a pair, I'd say it's likely at least 1 of the two people there has a special role of some sort.
eh, sometimes you have to break a few innocent eggs to make a delicious omelet.
anyways, with your role (genuine or not) now in the open. I'm gonna steer away from the roomie eviction talk for now. If you guys stick around long enough, hopefully we'll get a better idea of who you guys are.
So for now, I support only making one individual homeless. I think I'm going to roll some dice.
Yea. I'm for doing it just out of the curiosity of the thing. They are the center of attention down there. The way I see it: It has to happen eventually, so why not now? We all know they aren't going to make it to the end.
VOTE: franconp
I dunno if it shows it but I did edit that post to add in my vote, so I'll just repost the vote incase that messes up some kinda mechanism you're using. My bad. Had to double check those rules to make sure I wasn't breaking any kind of tardy rules. Normally would only check forums late night.
VOTE: franconp
VOTE: franconp
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
So the thing about the 2 person house
Either they've got at least one HHA person or a protection role. Otherwise there's no way they'd survive the first night, it's a nice big target for the HHA.
Is there any other way around that?
Either they've got at least one HHA person or a protection role. Otherwise there's no way they'd survive the first night, it's a nice big target for the HHA.
Is there any other way around that?
I see, I misread his previous post.
Yes to both questions.
Because they are in danger of exactly that, being evicted. Simply saying "I have a role" isn't exactly convincing.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Your description raises a lot of red flags to me.
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First, your role's actions are actually mutually beneficial to both sides. At first glance, it seems to benefit the towns more by giving us the ability to weed out more HHA members in one turn, but that would only be possible with some level of certainty if we actually had some information beforehand. If, on the other hand, you were to use your role on a turn where the townies still have relatively little information, you would be forcing us to fall back on probability like we would be on this turn, but forcing us to double evict by default.
Secondly, and probably most importantly, why have the ability to hide your role in the first place? The HHA members know who their members are. Also, once you've used your action, the HHA members will know you have a special role immediately since you're singled out - if you're not one of them, logically you would have to be allied with another party. However, since the townspeople know that you have a role but not your allegiance, you would have a target on your back from both sides.
I think your role description is the truth, but your allegiance is not.
I think you are, in fact, a neutral third-party! You are here to evict both the HHA members and the regular townfolk!
Nah. I'm town.
It is definitely a pro-town ability if used properly. When used later in the game when each individual eviction means more it lets the town get a step ahead of the HHA when things get down to day votes and night evictions racing each other to tip the majority.
If it was a bad guy role it would be almost always right to use it the first night when the town has the least information.
I'm not sure how the neutral role that you're proposing I am would even work. What's the supposed victory condition and what part of this power would let me forward that? Am I just supposed to use that one time ability to somehow survive until the end?
It is definitely a pro-town ability if used properly. When used later in the game when each individual eviction means more it lets the town get a step ahead of the HHA when things get down to day votes and night evictions racing each other to tip the majority.
If it was a bad guy role it would be almost always right to use it the first night when the town has the least information.
I'm not sure how the neutral role that you're proposing I am would even work. What's the supposed victory condition and what part of this power would let me forward that? Am I just supposed to use that one time ability to somehow survive until the end?
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
If a neutral party existed, their goal would be to remove all HHA and regular townies from the game. Your one time ability could benefit the HHA or the townies, but as long as neutral members aren't eliminated, it will always benefit you. It's only a pro-town ability if you use it in the correct context. It could just as easily backfire on us townies, and I think that's by design.
Actually, here's another point: at what junction are you going to be certain enough that we'll have two suspects in an upcoming day phase during a night phase, if any evidence that comes up from a night phase would not be revealed until that upcoming day phase? Your action wasn't meant to be used in coordination with anything else; it's purely random. Even if you use it relatively late in the game, there's always the chance that we may or may not have evidence to support an HHA suspect; regardless of that, this action would force us to vote two members of the town out, something which could be much more detrimental than helpful to the township.
Now that you've become a point of contention, it would make sense that you would try to ally yourself with the townies because it's your only option to prove you're not allied with the HHA. Even so, whether you are neutral or not, the HHA should think twice about whether to evict you or not because you could prove beneficial for their side as well.
HOWEVER, I think because you are neutral, it's to our benefit to keep you around for now. You're not an immediate threat because you don't have a coordinated night action. Any power you would have would be from rallying up townfolk to vote a certain way. It's just that manipulation that could backfire on us later in the game, assuming you're neutral. If you say you're allied with the town, we'll have to see how you use your ability in the future.
What we can take away from this is that, regardless of ultron's ultimate allegiance, it's not as safe a bet to evict the roomies anymore. It would ride on the probability of fran being HHA, which is the same as any other villager being HHA. We do know that fran has a role now, though, so I think the probability of his being HHA is slightly higher than if he's a regular villager.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Err, the probability that he's HHA is about the same than if he were a townie.
I have a way I can prove the role I have, but to do it I need to roleclaim and stay alive for the night (so I can use my role).
I prefer not to do it but if there is no other way around i will do it.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Is there any way to only prove your allegiance without compromising your role?
I don't think I can.
I mean its all cool and dandy, but we have all come around to the first argument I made: Its too soon to evict someone. Haly said its taking two actions, yes, two potentially WRONG actions.
Its clear the HHA is going to target the roomates next, since both of them are claiming townie (I am pretty sure one of them has to be HHA or Third Party, makes no sense to make them both good unless the intention of the designer is to makes us turn on them due to MATH and screw us over.
We are getting a LOT more information on Day 2, so might as well wait for it, if anything the roomies is a treat to both sides, and that is a good reason to keep them alive.
Its clear the HHA is going to target the roomates next, since both of them are claiming townie (I am pretty sure one of them has to be HHA or Third Party, makes no sense to make them both good unless the intention of the designer is to makes us turn on them due to MATH and screw us over.
We are getting a LOT more information on Day 2, so might as well wait for it, if anything the roomies is a treat to both sides, and that is a good reason to keep them alive.
I've made my opinions here pretty clear, so I'm not going to keep trying to convince you guys, but I will say this:
Mafia isn't a probability game. Mafia is also not a game about killing Mafia. It's a game about gathering information. The less players we have, the less information we can gather.
Killing two tonight might seem like an ideal play because it gives us a larger chance to kill mafia, but every time we lose more townies we gain larger chance to randomly choose mafia. Our strategy here should never be about getting rid of excess villagers to up our odds to hit mafia. That makes zero sense.
We need to gather and analyze information, and the only way to do that is to get townies talking. The more people we have alive, the more information we can gather.
Finally, I still don't understand how some of you are willing to risk killing two townies on a 33% chance to hit a HHA (or whatever we've decided that the probability actually is -- even though we have no idea how many HHA there are in the game)
Also, this is a very troubling thing to say.
By your logic we should just kill off as many as we can as soon as possible to up our chances of hitting mafia. Like I said previously, playing this like a probability game is a terrible, terrible idea. Probability is good for informing choices but a pretty terrible way to make them.
Riddle me this: if every night we were given the opportunity to lynch two people instead of one, would you do it?
Mafia isn't a probability game. Mafia is also not a game about killing Mafia. It's a game about gathering information. The less players we have, the less information we can gather.
Killing two tonight might seem like an ideal play because it gives us a larger chance to kill mafia, but every time we lose more townies we gain larger chance to randomly choose mafia. Our strategy here should never be about getting rid of excess villagers to up our odds to hit mafia. That makes zero sense.
We need to gather and analyze information, and the only way to do that is to get townies talking. The more people we have alive, the more information we can gather.
Finally, I still don't understand how some of you are willing to risk killing two townies on a 33% chance to hit a HHA (or whatever we've decided that the probability actually is -- even though we have no idea how many HHA there are in the game)
Also, this is a very troubling thing to say.
By your logic we should just kill off as many as we can as soon as possible to up our chances of hitting mafia. Like I said previously, playing this like a probability game is a terrible, terrible idea. Probability is good for informing choices but a pretty terrible way to make them.
Riddle me this: if every night we were given the opportunity to lynch two people instead of one, would you do it?
*Courtroom Chatter noise*
But what do you mean by "the ability to hide your role"? You mean not telling people? Because it paints a bigger target on his back. Also keep in mind everybody has the choice to hide their role as long as they want to. Giving it out early puts you at risk of losing the character because the HHA might target them.
Honestly, I think the fact we convinced Ultron to reveal his role (and Francomp revealed he had a 'big power') was a mistake here. Yes, it assures we don't kill him, but it's also extra information for the Mafia to go on. I seriously don't think Francomp should reveal his role.
Keep in mind the HHA needs to know information too to decide the best person to kill in the night phases (if they manage to kill information gathering roles early, they put us at a huge disadvantage). More information benefits us, but at the same time it's not necessarily the right idea to make everybody with a special power tell us what it is immediately.
Your seriously shifting blame to me because I'm trying to avoid killing three townies in one day?
I'd happily take the lynch today over you guys double evicting, if it means saving three townies from dying.
You do realize that's exactly what you're arguing we do today?
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I don't think I want fran revealing his role just yet. We know enough about Ultron that we shouldn't be evicting that square over any other square. As far as we're concerned, fran's got as much chance of being a townie as anyone else.
Yeah, and I have to reiterate, it would be as much a mistake for the HHA to target the roomies as it would be for us to vote them out. Ultron's role in particular could backfire on the townies and lead to some accidental townie removal.
I'm leaning towards a No Evict for this first day phase.
However, I want to turn our attention to the map and the design of the game. Specifically, I want to talk about the water tiles. Kark most definitely had these placed in these specific squares on purpose. Notice the placement of the bridges, as well, where the river can be crossed from. This leads me to believe that there's a geographical component to the actions of HHA members. My first instinct is to think there's a limit to how many squares an HHA can travel at night to evict someone, but HHA members would need to be able to coordinate to decide who to evict in a night cycle, so I don't think that's it.
On the other hand, perhaps the squares serve as a limitation for the special roles. For example, a doctor can only service the villagers within a certain number of squares. For that reason, if there is a geographical component, there would have to be at least two doctors (depending on the range one can travel at night, maybe more) to cover the entire map. Either that, or there are villagers who have been purposely left outside the range of a doctor or other certain special classes.
Any other thoughts on the map design?
I'm just kidding about suspecting you.
I've backtracked on this, personally. I know it's a double standard, but we have the ability to discuss it now. With his role action, we wouldn't have a choice.
Once he has used his role action, the game will reveal him to have a special role; it won't tell us which alliance he is with, though. Understandably, this would draw a lot of attention, because he can let us to remove two possible HHA members whenever he wants. However, he can also force us to remove two villagers when we don't have any concrete evidence. This sounds like a role which best services a party concerned with removing HHA and villagers alike. From what I understand, in a turn where he activates his role action, we wouldn't even be able to vote for No Evict. Stripping the townfolk of a choice is a strange action for a role supposedly aligned with the town.
Due to the double-edged nature of the role, I think it's prudent that HHA members consider that they could possibly utilize Ultron to their advantage if they are able to successfully dwindle down our population without arousing suspicion onto themselves.
I agree, I don't think Fran should reveal his role. I think we know enough about Ultron's to keep that square from being evicted just yet.
Also true.
Yeah, and I have to reiterate, it would be as much a mistake for the HHA to target the roomies as it would be for us to vote them out. Ultron's role in particular could backfire on the townies and lead to some accidental townie removal.
I'm leaning towards a No Evict for this first day phase.
However, I want to turn our attention to the map and the design of the game. Specifically, I want to talk about the water tiles. Kark most definitely had these placed in these specific squares on purpose. Notice the placement of the bridges, as well, where the river can be crossed from. This leads me to believe that there's a geographical component to the actions of HHA members. My first instinct is to think there's a limit to how many squares an HHA can travel at night to evict someone, but HHA members would need to be able to coordinate to decide who to evict in a night cycle, so I don't think that's it.
On the other hand, perhaps the squares serve as a limitation for the special roles. For example, a doctor can only service the villagers within a certain number of squares. For that reason, if there is a geographical component, there would have to be at least two doctors (depending on the range one can travel at night, maybe more) to cover the entire map. Either that, or there are villagers who have been purposely left outside the range of a doctor or other certain special classes.
Any other thoughts on the map design?
I'm just kidding about suspecting you.
I've backtracked on this, personally. I know it's a double standard, but we have the ability to discuss it now. With his role action, we wouldn't have a choice.
Once he has used his role action, the game will reveal him to have a special role; it won't tell us which alliance he is with, though. Understandably, this would draw a lot of attention, because he can let us to remove two possible HHA members whenever he wants. However, he can also force us to remove two villagers when we don't have any concrete evidence. This sounds like a role which best services a party concerned with removing HHA and villagers alike. From what I understand, in a turn where he activates his role action, we wouldn't even be able to vote for No Evict. Stripping the townfolk of a choice is a strange action for a role supposedly aligned with the town.
Due to the double-edged nature of the role, I think it's prudent that HHA members consider that they could possibly utilize Ultron to their advantage if they are able to successfully dwindle down our population without arousing suspicion onto themselves.
I agree, I don't think Fran should reveal his role. I think we know enough about Ultron's to keep that square from being evicted just yet.
Also true.
These notices will also be posted and updated in Post #3 of this thread, for easy finding.
Time Remaining in the Day Phase:
Current votes
(13 votes needed for majoritydecision):
Names with a
No Evict (5)
freakzilla149
Ourobolus
franconp
Tucah
Salvapot
Ourobolus(0)
tomakasatnav(1)
RobotNinjaHornets
Mazre(1)
Haly
franconp(2)
Mazre
Darryl
Friendly reminder - We are using a plurality of votes in this game
In the event that the Day Phase ends without a majority decision, the option with the most votes wins (at least 2 votes needed). Ties result in No Evict.
Otherwise, Day Phases end immediately when a majority is reached.
Talking about them is very different than evicting them. You're arguing to follow through on actually evicting them with limited information. I agree that the threat (even if it was empty) promoted conversation, which is always a good thing, of course. But to actually be intent on evicting both of them right now? I don't see that as a smart move.
Is any of the information gained even that useful? Assuming everyone is telling the truth everyone now knows we have town roles. Losing mine would not be particularly damaging (which is why I just went out and said what it was) but now we have an even bigger target on our head which is real bad if franconp is something particularly valuable.
If we'd waited a night to do this we could've maybe at least gotten one nights of reports back before you're forcing everyone to say what they are.
I mostly just have questions. I wonder if someone gets evicted, can someone else move to that home? I don't have any idea what benefit that have, but it may be something?
I was waiting to see what would happen during the night before I made this info public, but I guess since the question has been asked, and it's important we learn this as soon as possible:
My action can only be done on the players within one space of my house (up, down, left or right)
If the other actions are also limited in such a way, then if an action was performed on someone, suspicions should first go to their neighbours, and then we could deduce from there who is who and and who does what (which is why I was going to wait until after the night to reveal this)
I'm against evicting the roommates, because I think that for now there is relatively little risk from keeping them around, due to them only having 2 neighbours, if something were to happen to either of them, suspicions would be raised.
Of course there could also possibly be town-wide actions, as suggested by Mazre and Ultron's supposed actions, but i'm just letting you know that some actions are limited by geographical space.
I was baiting the HHA, honestly if they don´t attack the roomies they tell us they either know they have one of their own there, or they want to leave them for later since they are not an immediate treat.
BUT if one of the roomies is neutral with a really dangerous role, and the other claims its role is "big" and "requires a night to work", then more the reason for the HHA to take them out already they win far more if they are able to get rid of them.
I mentioned a hypothetical mechanic when you can move between vacant houses between nights (Or maybe enven days), since Karkador made it a point to mention the houses remain vacant.
The mechanic of moving into a vacant house could be very useful, considering the info I released above about certain actions having limited space.
The bridges are only there to imply that the two squares are adjacent despite the river being there
No. The information wouldn't be reliable if it wasn't a convincing threat. It's one thing to bring up the possibility of eviction and another to create an argument for it. Mazre's voting of Ouro went mostly unnoticed. Ouro didn't even put up a real defense, because he knows one vote isn't going to do jack.
It is necessary for a majority to be on the verge of forming to get substantial information from people. Otherwise they can just brush it off.
Yep, at least from my perspective. At the very least, depending on what happens during the night I can come closer to pinpointing some HHA.
Regarding the neighbor mechanic. In Mafia, there are multiple ways of revealing information on someone who was killed. It could be totally hidden, completely revealed, or some sort of "last testament" relayed through the moderator. I think Karkador's rules made it apparent that the last one is out. The first one favors HHA while the second one favors Town.
But what if the information revealed was diffused through neighbors? This way, each murder actually creates a bunch of new semi-roles that have some inkling as to the circumstances of the murder.
Those are my expectations of the neighbor mechanic.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Hmm I see.
I'm even more curious to see how the night plays out now that the roomies have been outed like they have, especially since I'm one of their neighbors.
I think the moving mechanic could be true. I think we'll see if that's true once some of the squares have been vacated.
I'm sorry Ultron, really. But the design made you guys a point of contention. We've at least eased some of our suspicions down. I'm fairly certain we'd be evicting one potentially helpful roles, regardless of your alignment.
This is also my suspicion. I think there will definitely be some evidence diffused to the neighbors when a square is evicted.
I think we're winding down to a conclusion for the day phase. Even though there's still some time left, we have no other means to leverage information out of anyone else. We don't know the geographical limitations of roles, save for Razmos' being limited to one square. I think the HHA can act within the confines of the entire map, simply because they need to coordinate their actions and there's not much to do if their range doesn't overlap.
VOTE: No Evict
There's still a majority for it, but I'd like to solidify that. We can keep discussing other prospective approaches, but I don't think there's much else to say in terms of actually evicting someone. Especially now, I think there are many more special roles on this map than one would originally assume; that's another piece of information I think the roommate discussion has led us to.
Any anomalies in town design would slightly favor the HHA, no? Since they are outnumbered.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I didn't even know people actually used the ignore function.
Hey Haly, you ignoring Salva?
There hasn't been anything you said I need responding to. For the most part, we're on the same track.
If there's something you want to discuss, however, I'm open to it.
For the record, I don't think ultron is HHA, unless he's very good at this stuff.
He has effectively sealed his fate. The HHA can get him at any time if he's truly a Townie. We can also verify the veracity of his role at any time, even if he's HHA, and lying about his role. With all eyes on him now, his actions are effectively bound. LMQ is right that his ability can work for either side, and this must be one of the built in protections Karkador gave the Roomies.
Francorp is another story, however.
He has effectively sealed his fate. The HHA can get him at any time if he's truly a Townie. We can also verify the veracity of his role at any time, even if he's HHA, and lying about his role. With all eyes on him now, his actions are effectively bound. LMQ is right that his ability can work for either side, and this must be one of the built in protections Karkador gave the Roomies.
Francorp is another story, however.
Allright, just making sure.
So do we have a list of people who have been inactive so far? We can start by checking what they have to say for themselves.