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(Article) Nintendo Buzz likely a bust for game makers
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
I think that's a poor mentality that forces devs to make shit in the first place. All Nintendo's 3D games were just Nintendo's games in 3D from the N64 to the GC. Tales of Symphonia sold well. FFCC sold well. Rayman 2 sold well. Make a good game on the system, and there's a good chance it wont be a shit seller. I think a lot of what Nintendo's doing with Wii is to pull in people who aren't so familiar with Nintendo's franchises just so everyone has a fairer chance. If it was gonna be the same ol, same ol, Wii Music and Wii Sports would have Link, Mario, and Samus.dark10x said:
sonycowboy
Member
charlequin said:
This article was written and quote fund managers who are short the western video game stocks (meaning they make ALOT of money if the stocks go down) and seem to be presenting yet another argument for why the stocks are overvalued. The article's design isn't to present an even argument, but to "warn" folks about impending disaster.
FortNinety
Member
:Motorbass said:
:lol
sonycowboy said:
The content of the article is pretty balanced on the whole when Troy isn't inserting his own opinions and actually quoting people in the business. Although I find the first half of the article, included the quoted text above a bit negative for no apparent reason as the premise is not really borne out.
The substance of what being said by the money people is that Wii interest was a surprise to some US publishers (keyword US), they likely won't benefit from it this holiday if they dont have games ready in time, and somewhere in the mix are a bunch of ad hoc arguments about how Wii may not achieve success etc. etc.
It doesn't really make sense. Either you're on the gravy train of success and benefit, or if the Wii fails and you're not on that train, which according to the article is the current case for some publishers, then you have limited exposure to a failure and your financials are not affected.
The issue seems to be developers/publishers missing a great revenue stream if Wii is a success. How that will be a 'bust' for them if they have limited exposure is a mystery if they have little to no exposure to the platform. But perhaps in the sense that their revenues are below what they could have been had they have more games out?. Which leads me to the title of the thread, again, nothing to do with the content and substance of what is being said.
I highly doubt THQ not having a game on Wii this christmas is going to be a major issue for either party, I would be more concerned about the Midways and THQs financials if PS3 software sales are sluggish because even the rich early adopters run dry on expendable cash after spending so much money on the hardware.
well iwata said this earlier:Xrenity said:
gamecube's current market share is around % 14 ,and hypothetically let's say wii grabs %22 of ww market by 2010...that would be %50 increase in terms of market share. I'd say that kind of senario would definitely be labeled as "success" by ninty execs even if they aren't the market leader.SatoruIwataVonBombeldroppenzel said:
charlequin
Banned
worldrunover said:
It's not even remotely close. At this point PSP has a lower LTD in all three major territories*, with its Japan numbers dwarfed by DS.
* To the best of my understanding, since we don't have monthly numbers for Europe.
Nintendo wants worldwide leadership - of course. When they keep saying they aren't really in competition with MS/Sony they're lying. They constantly pledge "epic" games for the hardcore in the same breath they talk about casuals/blue ocean/expanding the market/etc...
Whether they have the resources to create enough product (and get 3rd parties to do likewise) is very-much up for debate. The wiiexercise/wiikids/wiiseniors and various other forthcoming attempts to get new/lapsed gamers back is certainly part of the plan, but they're trying for the big prize and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.
Games move consoles, and while the next year or so is going to the early adopters, there isn't much not-13-30yr-old male-targeted stuff on the horizon for xbox/ps3 (off the top of my head: Viva Piniata, Afrika,...). I know a number of late-gen-ps2 folk that might be earlyish adopters of Wii if the price is the same as the late-gen ps2 and the games are there.
Whether they have the resources to create enough product (and get 3rd parties to do likewise) is very-much up for debate. The wiiexercise/wiikids/wiiseniors and various other forthcoming attempts to get new/lapsed gamers back is certainly part of the plan, but they're trying for the big prize and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.
Games move consoles, and while the next year or so is going to the early adopters, there isn't much not-13-30yr-old male-targeted stuff on the horizon for xbox/ps3 (off the top of my head: Viva Piniata, Afrika,...). I know a number of late-gen-ps2 folk that might be earlyish adopters of Wii if the price is the same as the late-gen ps2 and the games are there.
Frankfurter
Member
sonycowboy said:
Imo it's still a bit too early to make a really educated guess about the success of the Wii. Launch price, launch date (will they release it in Europe in 2006?*), third party support (will they get solid multiplattform support from western publishers from the start on and how will Japan pan out [DQ IX!?]?) and of course there is this allmighty question: will games like Brain Training, Animal Crossing etc. be able to also capture the home console market, especially in terms of Brain Training in seems doubtful.
* Yes, I know that everything Nintendo so far has said, points to yes, but I'm still a bit sceptical (and I will kill someone if they delay Wii in Europe to 2007
)Magicpaint
Member
AniHawk said:
Lets not forget the Sonic and Monkey Ball games too. Third Party devs can't hope to achieve what Nintendo achieves on their own platforms, but to think they can't gain anything from a Nintendo platform is ridiculous.
Third party sales only really started to be shit on Nintendo systems when the bulk of the support was shit.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
This isn't the first article thats said publishers have been missing out since they didnt take advantage of Wii at E3.
So whats the news?
The news is - this'll be a 10 page thread.
So whats the news?
The news is - this'll be a 10 page thread.
sonycowboy
Member
Deku said:
Actually, THQ has stated that they'd prefer to mostly sit out the first 6 months of a launch and wait for the installed base to rise (Outfit, Moto GP, & soon Saints Row).
However, they will have Smackdown for the PS3 and Spongebob & Cars for the Wii.
And why should developers be prepared for the Wii? Outside of a few large publishers (EA, Ubi, etc.), who really can afford to make take a chance on Nintendo's next offering after the disastrous GC and N64 (to an extent)? There is nothing new in this article that hasn't been said before. And until the Wii secures an established userbase, I'm not expecting anything original from third-parties unless Nintendo strikes some moneyhat deals.
charlequin
Banned
AniHawk said:
Tales of Symphonia is really my favorite counter-example for the idiotic "you're competing with Nintendo!" argument. Games with good design and high production values have turned in very good numbers on Gamecube, and with what I expect to be a bigger marketshare even in the US I expect more third party titles to succeed on Wii.
it's an interesting article, but currently optimistic imo, because we still need to know more about what nintendo has planned for the console. outside japan, wii certainly has the potential to do well, but i think it depends on how slow ps3 and 360 ('s continued) adoption rate is, as much as how desirable wii becomes.
if western third parties are truly caught off guard, well, they may have lost sight of what certain consumers want as much as japanese devs. it's certainly true most non japanese developers have had no real success with ds partly because they haven't bothered with the platform in an effective way. once again it's nintendo leading their platforms, but it seems more significant now.
in japan, to be honest i'm surprised how many people still see ds's success as relatively normal, it's not. ds has revived a dying market with nintendo software and is selling 150k a week, during summer with no major releases! sure there have been successful consoles over the years, but this kind of domination is staggering...
the success of ds in japan has become far more than a nintendo fan circle jerk and the whole situation over there is becoming critical for third parties. to put it bluntly, they've no idea what's going on and they have no apparent solution. while there are a few major franchises still selling well, the majority of japanese developers have lost sight of what many consumers want, and if they're not careful, they will be in major trouble.
initially i thought the rock and hard place third parties could be caught between would be ps3 (slow adoption rate because of price, declining audience, expensive development) and wii (competing with nintendo software and trying to sell to market they don't understand) but it's become so bad, many japanese devs could end up being between a declining interest and increased competition outside japan and an inability to sell games domestically!
admittedly there was a rough patch during the 1st half of the gamecube, but now i'm loving what nintendo has been delivering and i'm happy playing the best nintendo has to offer, but, i don't want to see any third parties disappear, they're needed. the bottom line is competition creates better games for everyone. japanese developers desperately need to find a way of expanding their audience domestically.
if wii becomes successful everywhere, the industry will become very challenging for most third parties, especially if they try and pull the usual 'oh, our games don't sell on nintendo consoles so we'll just pay some lip service and give the usual shovelware and delayed ports'.
if western third parties are truly caught off guard, well, they may have lost sight of what certain consumers want as much as japanese devs. it's certainly true most non japanese developers have had no real success with ds partly because they haven't bothered with the platform in an effective way. once again it's nintendo leading their platforms, but it seems more significant now.
in japan, to be honest i'm surprised how many people still see ds's success as relatively normal, it's not. ds has revived a dying market with nintendo software and is selling 150k a week, during summer with no major releases! sure there have been successful consoles over the years, but this kind of domination is staggering...
the success of ds in japan has become far more than a nintendo fan circle jerk and the whole situation over there is becoming critical for third parties. to put it bluntly, they've no idea what's going on and they have no apparent solution. while there are a few major franchises still selling well, the majority of japanese developers have lost sight of what many consumers want, and if they're not careful, they will be in major trouble.
initially i thought the rock and hard place third parties could be caught between would be ps3 (slow adoption rate because of price, declining audience, expensive development) and wii (competing with nintendo software and trying to sell to market they don't understand) but it's become so bad, many japanese devs could end up being between a declining interest and increased competition outside japan and an inability to sell games domestically!
admittedly there was a rough patch during the 1st half of the gamecube, but now i'm loving what nintendo has been delivering and i'm happy playing the best nintendo has to offer, but, i don't want to see any third parties disappear, they're needed. the bottom line is competition creates better games for everyone. japanese developers desperately need to find a way of expanding their audience domestically.
if wii becomes successful everywhere, the industry will become very challenging for most third parties, especially if they try and pull the usual 'oh, our games don't sell on nintendo consoles so we'll just pay some lip service and give the usual shovelware and delayed ports'.
Draft said:
But grandma can buy a Wii and then use the Opera browser to go to a website and play Bejeweled and Backgammon.
charlequin said:
Crystal Chronicles sold even more than Tales of Symphonia, so it's an even better counter-example.
But yeah, it's as you say -- the third party sales went to shit when third parties started putting shit games there. Good games with good production values sell well. There have been plenty of big third party successes on the GameCube.
charlequin
Banned
birdchili said:
I think the idea is less "we don't want to be the highest unit-selling videogame console manufacturer" and more "we are not directly competing on a sale-by-sale basis with Sony/Microsoft."
That is: the idea is that by hitting up people who wouldn't really have bought an X360 or PS3 anyway, then just selling as the default "second console" to hardcore gamers, Nintendo can be #1 unit-seller without ever having anybody make the decision "I want to buy this Wii here instead of this PS3 or Xbox 360."
ziran said:
QFT. But 3rd parties will eventually find the happy spot and finally figure out what's going on with the gaming market in Japan, they'll adapt eventually. Whether its non-gaming software or software thats strictly on the basis of gameplay (Bit-generations? thing from Nintendo), they'll figure it out eventually.
And the entire stigma of 3rd parties not selling enough software on a Nintendo console or handheld will become moot when there's plenty of users (marketshare) on that Nintendo platform. IMO anyway.
charlequin
Banned
ethelred said:Crystal Chronicles sold even more than Tales of Symphonia, so it's an even better counter-example.
I like to cite Symphonia more because it side-steps the bullshit brand excuse. Nobody can say "ToS is a piece of rotting butt that people just bought because it had the series name on the box" because neither previous tales game cracked 80k. Though in reality I agree it's a good example of how third parties can succeed on Nintendo platforms -- and I think a more full-fledged title in its place (a cel-shaded 3d traditional RPG, say) would've done even better. I expect Square's launch-window Wii offerings to do very well and hopefully help set a precedent of successful 3rd party sales on the device.
(I also think FF:CC is a good example of why people's low estimates for FFIII DS are silly, but that's a completely different argument....)
I'd call your grandpa a non gamer, not a casual gamer. Out of the 100 million PS2 owners, what would be the split between hardcore and casual gamers? 20/80 ? 30/70? 50/50? My point is there are millions of customers who 1)won't pay +500$ for a console, 2) will be seduced by the "magic" wiimote. And if you win casual gamers, you win this game IMO.Draft said:
ethelred said:But grandma can buy a Wii and then use the Opera browser to go to a website and play Bejeweled and Backgammon.
Crystal Chronicles sold even more than Tales of Symphonia, so it's an even better counter-example.
But yeah, it's as you say -- the third party sales went to shit when third parties started putting shit games there. Good games with good production values sell well. There have been plenty of big third party successes on the GameCube.
Tales is a better example, since the franchise was dead in the US, and the game had no advertising, and it's still sold something like 800,000 copies in the US alone. The game's really had long legs.
TheKingsCrown
Banned
AniHawk said:
That's publishers fault for having bad finance departments IMO. If they had good finance departments, they would have seen what was happening before E3 even...although not many could have accurately predicted the $600 PS3 Black Monday event from the history of this industry alone.
charlequin
Banned
marc^o^ said:
The (imagined) PhotoShops, they sear my eyes!
charlequin
Banned
thefro said:
It's actually only like 450k, but still! Symphonia was, if you're feeling less generous, a brand-new IP, and, if you're feeling more generous, an undesirable failure IP that turned around into a success.
EDIT: I'm not exactly sure what the marketing vector for Symphonia was, since I never saw a TV commercial for it, but I do know that just about every 16-year old girl with a GameCube on the entire internet is just dying for Lloyd and Sheena to have sex.
of the third parties that are developping for Wii - a not-insignificant number have made comments regarding Wii being the "family" console, or the "kid" console, or similar. third party games are going to reflect this.
how long for a from-the-ground-up "hardcore-friendly" Wii game to be developped? 18 months (is that a fair assesment for a not-rpg)? assuming the light bulb went on at e3 - we'd see third party Wii games in quantity by holiday 2007. this doesn't seem like a terrible time to get big new ip into the pipeline assuming Nintendo can keep selling Wii as they make them for the first year (which i don't think is out of the question at all, really). Nintendo has repeatedly stated that a solid first year of releases was a mistake they plan on rectifying from the Gamecube launch.
how long for a from-the-ground-up "hardcore-friendly" Wii game to be developped? 18 months (is that a fair assesment for a not-rpg)? assuming the light bulb went on at e3 - we'd see third party Wii games in quantity by holiday 2007. this doesn't seem like a terrible time to get big new ip into the pipeline assuming Nintendo can keep selling Wii as they make them for the first year (which i don't think is out of the question at all, really). Nintendo has repeatedly stated that a solid first year of releases was a mistake they plan on rectifying from the Gamecube launch.
It's not me saying that. I used "" for a reason: it's what casual gamers will think when they see the wiimote in action. Find a better word if you have a problem with the "magic" one, my point will remain: the wiimote will draw casual gamers when they see what it can do. It was made for them.Amir0x said:
i agree.JavyOO7 said:
i'm optimistic many developers will find a way to sell their games in decent amounts.
as for third parties' software on nintendo platforms, obviously it's become a stick to beat nintendo with, without much reasoning. if ffxiii, dq 9, gta 4, half life 3, mgs 4, etc were all exclusive to wii and the console had a big installed base, they would sell as well as they have on any platform. admittedly you would hear the screams of fanboys and graphics-whores on the internet for years, but so what, developers only care about profit.
like you said, it's as much to do with userbase size as anything. look at ffiii, just from a profitability standpoint square-enix made the right decision remaking the game for ds and how many people honestly believe it won't be a success?
marc^o^ said:
oh yes! No doubt, no doubt. Drawn right on in. I agree. Totally. I can't imagine casuals thinking that it's anything other than magical. A revelation, even!
And we could go a step further, because if these casuals live in Japan they'll probably form a chapel of collective non-gaming taste around it and begin to worship it thanks to connecting wirelessly with the DS.
Battersea Power Station
Member
sonycowboy said:
Holy crap -- thread winner * infinity.Netrunner2k2 said:
Ghengis Cohen
Banned
You should have shown him a cell phone. That would have blown his ****ing mind.Xrenity said:
Xrenity said:
yes, I know. That's why I agree. I showed my sister the Wii footage on G4, and she was astonished. She said "Finally, after all these years of staying away from games because i had to push buttons i will finally be able to partake in this fine industry thanks to the ability of the remote to sense motion."
I was shocked! She only would play games when i forced it on her, and she would cry all day and night as i pushed her through Pikmin 2.
but now, she may buy her first system!
Magicpaint
Member
Amir0x said:
:lol
They might as well name the big offenders:
EA - Likely 2 launch games with Madden and NFS. They had 5 for the 360 (Tiger Woods, Fifa and NBA Live are the missing Wii titles).
Take Two - ZERO titles. They had 3 for the 360 (Amped, NHL, NBA).
Activision - 2 to 3 for the Wii with Tony Hawk, COD3 seemingly ready for launch and maybe the Marvel game. They had 4 for the 360 (Quake 4, Gun, THAW, COD2), and they really scored with COD2 last year.
They made up 12 of the 18 X360 launch titles (the remaining being Microsoft with 3, and Ubisoft, Sega and Namco with 1). They will only have 4 to 5 of the XX Wii launch titles. That's a pretty big difference.
On the other hand, there's better launch support from Ubisoft, Sega, THQ and probably a few more (Midway, Atlus, SNK, ?). These guys should all benefit from the big 3 above not being prepared. "Bust" may be the right word for whether EA, Take Two and Activision will make out good, but IMO some of these other publishers will get some decent sales.
EA - Likely 2 launch games with Madden and NFS. They had 5 for the 360 (Tiger Woods, Fifa and NBA Live are the missing Wii titles).
Take Two - ZERO titles. They had 3 for the 360 (Amped, NHL, NBA).
Activision - 2 to 3 for the Wii with Tony Hawk, COD3 seemingly ready for launch and maybe the Marvel game. They had 4 for the 360 (Quake 4, Gun, THAW, COD2), and they really scored with COD2 last year.
They made up 12 of the 18 X360 launch titles (the remaining being Microsoft with 3, and Ubisoft, Sega and Namco with 1). They will only have 4 to 5 of the XX Wii launch titles. That's a pretty big difference.
On the other hand, there's better launch support from Ubisoft, Sega, THQ and probably a few more (Midway, Atlus, SNK, ?). These guys should all benefit from the big 3 above not being prepared. "Bust" may be the right word for whether EA, Take Two and Activision will make out good, but IMO some of these other publishers will get some decent sales.