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[sonycowboy]

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/new...97304.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

I know it's just one article, but I can't help but think that Nintendo's day in the sun at E3, combined with the DS' success might be giving some unrealistic expectations for what the platform can achieve. Obviously, anything can happen, but I am still skeptical that it can challenge the PS3 and Xbox 360 for worldwide leadership.

I certainly believe it's possible and can see scenarios where that happens, but the disconnect between Nintendo and the current state of the console industry seems like a pretty large gap to bridge. Yes, they'll bring in new gamers, but there are upwards of a 100M gamers already existing that haven't warmed to the Nintendo experience over the past decade.

It should be a hell of an interesting generation.

Nintendo could be the big winner this holiday season in the video-game wars, but that might not be great news for game publishers.

The venerable video-game company's Wii console was the surprise hit of the industry's E3 conference this spring, and many analysts now believe that Nintendo could have a big hit on its hands once the Wii debuts later this year.

But don't expect game makers such as Electronic Arts (ERTS - commentary - Cramer's Take) to cash in right away on the Wii's success. Indeed, such companies will likely have few Wii games to offer this holiday as stocking stuffers.

The publishers "were caught off guard" by the buzz around the Wii, says James Lin, a longtime industry analyst and a consultant with Simba Group. "They weren't expecting anything."

That the publishers were apparently unprepared for the Wii is also bad news for investors in the sector who have seen their holdings get beaten up lately amid sinking sales and rising costs.

The implication is that investors may have to wait even longer to start seeing the stocks turn around.

"No one's going to make money on the software except Ubisoft," whose Red Steel title Nintendo showcased at E3, says one hedge fund manager, who is short shares of THQ (THQI - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO - commentary - Cramer's Take). "Everyone got caught flat-footed."

Still, investors may be able to catch a ride on the Wii. But they will have to do a little thinking outside the game box, analysts say.

The former industry leader, Nintendo has been a distant also-ran behind Sony (SNE - commentary - Cramer's Take) in the last two generations of home video-game machines.

Things had gotten so bad for the company that many analysts were largely writing off Nintendo in the next console cycle, portraying the market as largely a battle between Sony and Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Nintendo, however, has been bouncing back lately. Many analysts had expected Sony to challenge Nintendo's dominance in the handheld game market, its last remaining stronghold, when Sony introduced the PlayStation Portable last year.

But Nintendo has more than met the challenge, as its simpler, cheaper DS has outsold the PSP by a long shot in Japan and has run fairly even with it in the U.S.

...

 

[demi]

Nintendo turns into the bad guy now, news at 11

 

[sonycowboy]

Nintendo turns into the bad guy now, news at 11

Did you actually read the article??

 

[demi]

Yes

 

[Jeff-DSA]

Did you actually read the article??

Demi read the entire article, news at 11.

 

[AniHawk]

So (in a nutshell), game publishers were surprised the Wii was popular at E3. And that's bad because they have jack shit for the thing.

Thanks. I had no idea.

 

[Magicpaint]

So (in a nutshell), game publishers were surprised the Wii was popular at E3. And that's bad because they have jack shit for the thing.

Thanks. I had no idea.

I endorse this post.

 

[demi]

See, AniHawk read it too.

Silly sonyweirdo, you can just take your stealth trolls somewhere else! Goober.

 

[Fuzzy]

So (in a nutshell), game publishers were surprised the Wii was popular at E3. And that's bad because they have jack shit for the thing.

Thanks. I had no idea.

Plus Midway complaining they didn't get enough information on the Wii until recently so they couldn't start work on anything (as if they would've anyway).

 

[<nu>faust]

40 - 40 - 20 am cry !

 

[sonycowboy]

See, AniHawk read it too.

Silly sonyweirdo, you can just take your stealth trolls somewhere else! Goober.

I know you didn't read it.

 

[BorkBork]

Things had gotten so bad for the company that many analysts were largely writing off Nintendo in the next console cycle, portraying the market as largely a battle between Sony and Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take).

If I didn't know any better, I would have thought the Cube install base was Virtual-Boyesqe instead of being only a little bit behind Xbox.

 

[Alcibiades]

remember the "Nintendo probably going 3rd party" flurry of articles even from "respected" news organization...

:lol

oh my, I love how some Sony fanboys actually believed it would happen with such conviction...

 

[demi]

I know you didn't read it.

Sure, dude. Keep assuming. Goober. You like it when I call you that? Goober?

 

[Shawn128]

So, who didn't know that everyone buys Nintendo systems to play Nintendo games? Didn't they get the memo?

 

[AniHawk]

I know you didn't read it.

Did you?

 

[GhostSeed]

I think a more accurate thread title might be "...bust for U.S. game makers".

But yeah some of them got caught with their pants down again.

 

[the.tutelary]

this reads like:

"we completely underestimated the general publics possible interest in Wii, and now we dont have any game prepared, stupid us."

What a joke.

 

[sonycowboy]

Did you?

Mostly. I fell out of my chair laughing when David Cole from DFC actually said that the Wii had a very strong potential to be the #1 system this gen.

 

[Xrenity]

So in short devs en publishers are weren't supporting Wii anyway, until they were proved wrong?

lol.

Mostly. I fell out of my chair laughing when David Cole from DFC actually said that the Wii had a very strong potential to be the #1 system this gen.

haha, you'll be laughing a lot this year, I guess.

 

[Netrunner2k2]

Mostly. I fell out of my chair laughing when David Cole from DFC actually said that the Wii had a very strong potential to be the #1 system this gen.

Well, potential is everything.

I mean, that is what we are paying for with the PS3, no?

 

[elostyle]

So (in a nutshell), game publishers were surprised the Wii was popular at E3. And that's bad because they have jack shit for the thing.

Thanks. I had no idea.

<3


They can proceed to put the blame on professional analysts now

 

[professor_t]

Did you actually read the article??

Did you read it? Or were your comments directed at a different article than the one you posted? If so, please put it up so we can figure out what you're talking about.

 

[Luckett_X]

I sincerely hope companies arent really basing projections of the Wii's success on E3. The video of a hundred manboys running to the stands is just that, a horrific minority in the world that deserve to be persecuted as the nerds they truly are!

Companies are probably also taking into account that only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo systems, and since theyve been so tight lipped about the console its hardly a surprise nobody has much to show in support for it.

I guess the positive press of the DS has just sort of warped peoples heads. Would this be the case if there wasn't a PSP and Sony hadn't entered the market? NINTENDO HANDHELD SELLS LOADS, more at 11. *bong*

Ah well, we'll see soon enough!

 

[pr0cs]

Most of the publishers seem to be taking a "wait and see" attitude towards developing specific Wii titles.

 

[Juice]

If PS3 wins, EA sells a ton of games.

If a Nintendo system wins, Nintendo sells a ton of games.

If Nintendo sells a ton of games, EA sells fewer games.

EA is American.

Nintendo is Japanese.

Therefore, it is un-American to buy the Japanese Wii, but American to buy the Japanese PS3.

 

[<nu>faust]

Obviously, anything can happen, but I am still skeptical that it can challenge the PS3 and Xbox 360 for worldwide leadership.

i don't think ninty is shooting for worldwide leadership anyways, anywhere between 20- 30 % of the ww market would be enough to label wii as a "success"

 

[elostyle]

Smart industry people had all the information they needed to realize that their Revolution interest/commitment was too low ever since the controller unveiling IMO. By then, it was clear that the Rev was going to be in a market of its own. That combined with the surge in simplistic, abstract net based games as well as how some of the more different, low budget DS offerings had been received should have been a bit of a hint.

 

[davepoobond]

Most of the publishers seem to be taking a "wait and see" attitude towards developing specific Wii titles.

less risk involved with the Wii, indeed. :lol

 

[Xrenity]

Companies are probably also taking into account that only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo systems

No. Good (/exclusive) games sell on Nintendo systems.
Viewtiful Joe? Hit. RE4? Hit.
Castlevania DoS? Hit. (That's what konami said, anyway, much more copies sold than expected, and you couldn't get it anywhere near here).

i don't think ninty is shooting for worldwide leadership anyways, anywhere between 20- 30 % of the ww market would be enough to label wii as a "success"

Well, I guess as long as it makes money, it's a success, but Nintendo is of course aiming for the leadership. What company wouldn't?

 

[worldrunover]

I don't see Wii possibly becoming number one, just because it's not appealing to people who play games casually (even though it may appeal to hardcore gamers and those who don't play games). So this fact alone is going to limit it's success, in America at least. It could become another DS in Japan, but even if it does, I don't think that will be enough to propel it to number 1 overall.

 

[AniHawk]

FROM THE MAKER OF:

:lol

It's like putting Claudia Shiffer next to Kirstie Alley. She might have been decent in her time (especially in Star Trek 2 , but now ...

AND:

Put the PSP next to the DS in the eyes of a customer and you can bury the DS the next day. The DS started very well, but so did the Dreamcast.

The DS, IMHO, was a knee jerk reaction to the PSP and is sloppy all the way down the board. The launch titles between the two systems are night and day. The DS couldn't even sell 1-1 software to hardware.

The PSP is over a generation ahead in terms of technology and is going to wipe the floor with the DS.

I completely respect Nintendo as a software company, but as far as hardware is concerned, they are a sheep lost in the woods, and Sony is coming home to grandma's house (how's that for mixed literary allusions? )

The DS will sell decently for 6-12 months, but it's so far behind the PSP, customers are going to jump ship.

COMES

Mostly. I fell out of my chair laughing when David Cole from DFC actually said that the Wii had a very strong potential to be the #1 system this gen.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Article summation - Game devs are going "Oh shit, the Wii might actually sell well and we haven't made anything for it."

Same thing happened with the DS. Yeehah.

 

[Y2Kev]

No. Good (/exclusive) games sell on Nintendo systems.
Viewtiful Joe? Hit. RE4? Hit.
Castlevania DoS? Hit. (That's what konami said, anyway, much more copies sold than expected, and you couldn't get it anywhere near here).

Well, now you see why EA isn't interested.

 

[demi]

FROM THE MAKER OF:



AND



COMES

Yeah, he is quite the goober.

You hear that, goober?

 

[sonycowboy]

Did you read it? Or were your comments directed at a different article than the one you posted? If so, please put it up so we can figure out what you're talking about.

Article's Thesis:

1) Wii has a ton of buzz from E3
2) Publisher's have no product for the Wii
3) Wii likely to be hugely successful
4) Publishers' will suffer because they aren't supporting Wii.

My comments:

1) Despite the buzz from E3 (Which both the Gamecube and N64 had as well), I am skeptical that the Wii will be as successful as some are now buying into.

2) The current industry is structured around genre's and franchises that, for the past 10 years, have not been inline with Nintendo's strategies.

I know we have a bunch of knucklehead who like to spout assinine one-liners as opposed to engage in actual dialog, so I don't have any expectations that the thread will actually go anywhere.

My little comment about falling out of the chair was more designed to try and get folks to debate whether or not 3rd parties can even really be successful on the Wii given their stable of franchises and design philosophies, but I suppose that's beyond some folks.

 

[Xrenity]

FROM THE MAKER OF:

AND

COMES

:lol

He's a bit wrong on PSP-DS.

 

[Archie]

FROM THE MAKER OF:



AND:



COMES

What are you trying to say?

 

[:Motorbass]

OMG, do Nintendo now also have to make commercials for developpers?

 

[jj984jj]

I sincerely hope companies arent really basing projections of the Wii's success on E3. The video of a hundred manboys running to the stands is just that, a horrific minority in the world that deserve to be persecuted as the nerds they truly are!

Companies are probably also taking into account that only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo systems, and since theyve been so tight lipped about the console its hardly a surprise nobody has much to show in support for it.

I guess the positive press of the DS has just sort of warped peoples heads. Would this be the case if there wasn't a PSP and Sony hadn't entered the market? NINTENDO HANDHELD SELLS LOADS, more at 11. *bong*

Ah well, we'll see soon enough!

Using a different scenario to dodge on Nintendo's recent success FTL!

Fact is: Sony did announce a handheld using their established brand in gaming, PlayStation. 90% of the world thought it would do better then Nintendo's two screen gimmick. Nintendo is taking a similar direction with their home console now.

What happens now? Will this work in the home console market? Like you said, we'll see soon enough.

 

[sonycowboy]

FROM THE MAKER OF:



AND:



COMES

Ahhh.. The good old days. My prognosticion skills are unrivaled.

(Yes, I bit it on the DS vs PSP deal. But, so did 90% of this board and many Nintendo fans were agreeing. It's certainly a great example of Nintendo's ability to mobilize and execute. Again, I'm not saying the DS will fail or can't be #1, just that I think it's not likely and more importanty, not as crucial to 3rd parties as this article makes out. It's also quite possible that I could be wrong.)

 

[sonycowboy]

double

 

[AniHawk]

1) Despite the buzz from E3 (Which both the Gamecube and N64 had as well), I am skeptical that the Wii will be as successful as some are now buying into.

Well so am I, but we've known about this stuff since just after E3, and you should know better.

 

[worldrunover]

Using a different scenario to dodge on Nintendo's recent success FTL!

Fact is: Sony did announce a handheld using their established brand in gaming, PlayStation. 90% of the world thought it would do better then Nintendo's two screen gimmick. Nintendo is taking a similar direction with their home console now.

What happens now? Will this work in the home console market? Like you said, we'll see soon enough.

But hasn't the PSP sold more than the DS worldwide to date?

 

[dark10x]

Even if they WERE ready, the typical scenario would likely play out. As many have said, when you create content for a Nintendo platform, your largest competitor is Nintendo.

 

[charlequin]

But don't expect game makers such as Electronic Arts (ERTS - commentary - Cramer's Take) to cash in right away on the Wii's success.

But EA just announced like six Wii titles with exclusively developed waggle control.

Mostly this article seems to be overly negative over a fairly obvious fact (Western third parties were skeptical about hopping on board the Wii train). It also ignores the really important fact: the already known launch titles already have this Christmas effectively wrapped up, and the real money for third parties will be in hitting the 2007 holiday season (which any company that greenlighted projects after E3 can easily do).

 

[Archie]

But hasn't the PSP sold more than the DS worldwide to date?

When you wish upon a star...

 

[davepoobond]

But hasn't the PSP sold more than the DS worldwide to date?

i think it was supposed to have shipped more..

 

[jj984jj]

Ahhh.. The good old days. My prognosticion skills are unrivaled.

(Yes, I bit it on the DS vs PSP deal. But, so did 90% of this board and many Nintendo fans were agreeing. It's certainly a great example of Nintendo's ability to mobilize and execute. Again, I'm not saying the Wii will fail or can't be #1, just that I think it's not likely and more importanty, not as crucial to 3rd parties as this article makes out. It's also quite possible that I could be wrong.)

Fixed? That's what you meant to say, right?

But hasn't the PSP sold more than the DS worldwide to date?

No.

 

[donny2112]

Pachter said something similar shortly after E3.

Third Parties Not Capitalizing on Wii
Wedbush Morgan analyst doubts third-party publishers outside Sega and Ubisoft are positioned to take advantage of an early Wii success

Pachter said that the wait-and-see attitude that most third-party publishers are taking with the Wii means that if Nintendo were to experience robust hardware sales in the first year, no publishers would be able to take advantage of the installed base because they haven't fully committed to the early life of the platform.

"I can't name any US publisher games that are going to launch on the Wii that are going to make a difference," Pachter said. "Certainly there will be Spongebob, but big deal. Seriously, that's great, but if you buy the Wii as your second console, as I really think most people are going to do, you're probably not going to give a damn about Spongebob."

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