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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

MaulerX

MaulerX

Member
cntr said:
Per the main thread, Irma is beginning its northwest turn, few hours earlier than estimated.

4dc23822fee01e2cb1b74acbcc4473af63fd04bd4477d5fe2b31c26ddd8f8e6e.png
Click to expand...


Welp. That's not exactly good. The question now is how much stronger it'll get before it hits FL.
 
M

MrJames

Member
sflufan said:
Still moving west? I wonder if that was a wobble then?
Click to expand...

Moving at 280 so just north of due west.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
P

pestul

Member
So a lot of vacationers were evacuated from Cayo Coco/Santa Maria to Varadero according to posts on the TripAdvisor forums.. not ideal to say the least.
 
K

KoruptData

Member
OraleeWey said:
Can someone quote the article? Having trouble on mobile.
Click to expand...

1. Tropical cyclones are important rainmakers, providing 25 percent or more of available rainfall to places like Japan, India, and Southeast Asia—not to mention Texas, which desperately needs a dousing ASAP.

2. Tropical cyclones help maintain the global heat balance by moving warm tropical air away from the equator and towards the poles. Without them, the tropics would get a lot hotter and the poles a lot colder… A typical tropical cyclone releases heat energy of about 50 to 200 exajoules a day. That’s equivalent to 70 times our worldwide energy consumption.

3. Paradoxically, fragile barrier islands need hurricanes for their survival—especially now, when sea levels are rising. Although hurricanes erode beaches on the ocean side of barrier islands, they build up the back sides of the same islands by depositing new sediments via winds and waves. This dynamical process keeps barrier islands alive.

4. Tropical cyclones stir up the ocean and drive the process of upwelling, thus playing a part in the thermohaline circulation—another important transport mechanism distributing heat between the equator and the poles and keeping the earth’s temperature in better balance.

5. By stirring the ocean, tropical cyclones also cycle nutrients from the seafloor to the surface, boosting ocean productivity and setting the stage for blooms of marine life.
Click to expand...

.
 
G

GreyWind

Member
pestul said:
So a lot of vacationers were evacuated from Cayo Coco/Santa Maria to Varadero according to posts on the TripAdvisor forums.. not ideal to say the least.
Click to expand...

My mom and my sister went there for vacation. This week was their last but I was told a lot of tourists are being moved to Havana.

I'm worried.
 
I

Irminsul

Member
Euro 12z run in three-hour steps (as usual, time on the bottom right is in UTC+2 or EDT+6):

hurricane_irma_20170975q28.gif
Click to expand...

Maybe a nudge further west than 00z, but not really much.

Wind gusts in km/h (mph * 1.6):

hurricane_irma_wind_2hluw2.gif
Click to expand...

A few notes on that: The earliest estimates for wind gusts (i.e., at the beginning of the animation) are around 200 km/h or 120 mph. That means, gusts are estimated around what Irma currently has as sustained wind speeds.

That doesn't mean this follows strictly when it hits land in Florida, of course. But it does show the wind model of the ECMWF currently underestimates Irma.

Landfall wind gusts are again around 160 mph, so for those who were disappointed at Irma weakening to a measly category 3 hurricane, don't be. Those winds should put Irma well into category 4. Yes, that paragraph was slightly sarcastic.

Also, do note the strong winds on the panhandle. That wasn't modelled like this before.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Euro initialized with wrong position and pressure so this run may not be as accurate as previous runs.

On top of this irma appears to be turning earlier then 0z run too. Euro might have gone to aggressive west that run also. Well see.
 
I

Irminsul

Member
maabus1999 said:
Euro initialized with wrong position and pressure so this run may not be as accurate as previous runs.
Click to expand...
Is the position really that far off? Didn't have a look at the original analysis, to be honest.

And pressure has basically always been wrong since Irma was a thing. The model still beat the NHC (yes) in accuracy, at least until now.
 
I

III-V

Member
maabus1999 said:
Euro initialized with wrong position and pressure so this run may not be as accurate as previous runs.

On top of this irma appears to be turning earlier then 0z run too. Euro might have gone to aggressive west that run also. Well see.
Click to expand...

Thats what i saw immediately when I looked at the projection, what happened?
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Irminsul said:
Is the position really that far off? Didn't have a look at the original analysis, to be honest.

And pressure has basically always been wrong since Irma was a thing. The model still beat the NHC (yes) in accuracy, at least until now.
Click to expand...
Yeah on some weather forums folks noticed right away something was off with the 00 hour. It happened once with Harvey too.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
People are already tearing into every meteorologist they can find on Twitter because Irma has shifted westward (albeit within the recent cone of uncertainty the past few days) and I'm starting to see people spread rumors that it's going out into the Gulf of Mexico and won't hit Florida.

These rumors are going to get people killed.
 
I

Ihyll

Junior Member
And people were mocking me when I said it would significantly weaken. Cuba tore it up quite a bit. Although it's still a cat 3 storm, it's significantly weaker than it was
 
F

Fei

Member
Irminsul said:
Landfall wind gusts are again around 160 mph, so for those who were disappointed at Irma weakening to a measly category 3 hurricane, don't be. Those winds should put Irma well into category 4.
Click to expand...

The SS scale is based on one minute sustained wind speeds. There's implicit assumption that there are always gusts greater than the sustained speeds. In other words, a Cat 3 is a Cat 3.

This is shaping up to be a mega-disaster for the west coast of FL even as a Cat 3. The amount of surge going into those bays will be scary if this forecast lines up.
 
M

MrJames

Member
NHC doing hourly updates on position and heading.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Ihyll said:
And people were mocking me when I said it would significantly weaken. Cuba tore it up quite a bit. Although it's still a cat 3 storm, it's significantly weaker than it was
Click to expand...

Projections always had it weakening around Cuba. The problem is now it's sitting in the Florida Strait. 6000' foot deep warm water.
 
I

III-V

Member
MrJames said:
NHC doing hourly updates on position and heading.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
Click to expand...

damn it still heading west
 
R

Retro

Member
Nictel said:
The ECMF model is way more accurate then the others. Is that just this hurricane or is the model just better?
Click to expand...

Better model, that's the Euro. It has more computing power but takes longer to run, which is why they're only twice a day. I believe it's been fairly accurate, calling for that northern turn for quite a while now.
 
M

MrJames

Member
WNW now at 285

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 80.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
 
I

III-V

Member
Irminsul said:
Fun fact:

That righternmost model, named "OFCL"? That's the NHC forecast, which, in contrast to raw GFS or ECMWF output, has human input. The ECMWF is currently doing better than the official NHC forecast in terms of track accuracy.
Click to expand...

that is interesting.
 
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