UberTag
Member
Irma's playing chicken with the entire East coast of the U.S. and the Canadian maritime provinces.
Not cool when images of Houston's flooding remain fresh in everyone's memory.
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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|
- Thread starter perfectchaos007
- Start date
Not cool when images of Houston's flooding remain fresh in everyone's memory.
Ew.
Im in 'Next to Philly NJ', we'd survive it OK, but the coast, well, it would be a mess again.
Heh, I'm in 'Next to Philly NJ' as well. Sandy and Irene were no problem here, but there's obviously a huge difference between a Cat 1 and a Cat 4/5. All gonna depend on that turn.
UberTag
Member
Let's just hope it doesn't slam into NYC on 9/11. The implications of NYC getting hit on that date aren't good. (Even if it would just be an unfortunate coincidence.)
TarpitCarnivore
Member
I'm on the cost of NJ so....
Both GFS and Euro now seem in good agreement on the strength of the storm in roughly 6 to 7 days time. Around 920 MB which is a very strong cat 5. More alarmingly it stays around that strength for quite a few days. Even if that nightmare GFS forecast track comes true then making landfall that far north at around 950MB it would still be around cat 2 to cat 3 strength.
My parents were till Sandy. They faired OK but wanted no part of the ocean lapping at their door again.
I used to love the theatre of watching landfall on weatherchannel. But now i just want it to go away.
This is definitely the right attitude to have at the moment. I'm not saying nothing will happen, but folks need to realize that these models are looking 10 days out and are fairly inaccurate.
Keep an eye on it, have a plan in place (which you should have already), make sure your emergency kit is up to date (ditto), but don't start panicking just yet. Have a beer or four and enjoy the Labor Day weekend, after which point we'll be about a week out and have a better idea where things are headed (Sandy models were all over the place until ~7 days out and even then there was a lot of uncertainty).
There's literally millions of enormous moving parts directing this thing somewhere along 2096 miles of coastline (in just the US) and thousands of islands in the Caribbean if it even makes landfall. Again, I'm not saying we can ignore it, but 10 days out it's a complete crapshoot and stuff is going to go back and forth on where this thing lands over the next week or so.
Can't wait for the BAD HOMBRE tweets to start.
smokeymicpot
Beat EviLore at pool.
If that is right the shore and Staten Island are fucked.
Master Yoshi
Member
#irmagird
Models are shifting again. While the Euro operational moves closer to Florida, most ensembles are moving east compared to prior runs. OTOH, the GFS operational keeps Irma way offshore from Florida with a hit up north but the latest ensembles nearly all show landfall on the southeast coast. Half are aimed at Florida. Still to far out to start worrying. The storm is currently closer to Africa than it is to North America.
piratepwnsninja
Member
It continually tracking further southeast for landfall is bothering me. My immediate family all live in South Carolina and went through Hugo way back.
Merchandise
Member
A fucked up part of me has some sense of nostalgia for Sandy and that whole week off from school, but I know it's really bad.
Welp. I'mma need a boat.
Miggytronz
Member
The way this thing is tracking the North East US is going to feel Irma in some way shape or form I believe. Question is how far south will it direct hit Im guessing.
smokeymicpot
Beat EviLore at pool.
Yeah I was lucky I wasn't by the water when it happened. Now my apartment building is right by the water. We might move the car to her parents and just stay here since they a generator and stuff.
fluffydelusions
Member
I lived on Staten Island during Sandy and for the most part we were ok. Only the flood prone parts got screwed.
maquiladora
Member
0Z GFS. Still aiming for an East Coast landfall.
Exceptional low pressure for a hurricane that far north.
Exceptional low pressure for a hurricane that far north.
Merchandise
Member
I had no damage and only lost power for a day. Ten minutes away people's houses were underwater and others had no power for two weeks or more. Bizarre times.
Talk about a worst case scenario. Holy shit. I'll probably go hang out with my folks if this happens, they've got solar panels so they shouldn't lose power if shit hits the fan.
There were a few streets in Manhattan underwater after Sandy, some areas got hit damn hard and others were just ignored.
0Z GFS. Still aiming for an East Coast landfall.
Exceptional low pressure for a hurricane that far north.
Assuming that passes up through NJ and over Newark, that low of a pressure means a probable CAT 3 or 4 hurricane pushing at least a 15 foot (most likely at least 20 feet) storm surge up the Hudson and East rivers.
If I'm in lower Manhattan right now, I'm thinking of fucking leaving.
It doesn't. It goes right up the Delaware Bay and gets a direct hit on Philly.
Not to say NY still wouldn't get surge, but that 20 foot tier surge would be heading up the Delaware.
Jersey is quite literally trapped in this scenario. Northeast quadrant and eyewall over the most densely populated state in the country. Evacuating South or West would put you in the storm's direct path, Evacuating East is impossible, and Evacuating North wouldn't change much.
As somebody in South Jersey...fuck.
Yeah, fuck indeed. Start making plans. Because by the time it's close enough to know for sure, it's too late.
SafeinSound
Member
Would be crazy if this made its way here (jersey). I lived five minutes off the islands during sandy and we made out fine. Anything near the coast was fucked though. My dads wife is still in the process of having her house raised and rebuilt.
I'm not getting worried yet
I'm not getting worried yet
The euro has it hitting SC. I tend to agree it looks like a southern coast track now. Rather it just made a hard right and just makes waves. No one needs this. NJ has about 2000 homes still not repaired from Sandy,
TarpitCarnivore
Member
I'm 2 miles away and up a slight incline the whole way. According to FEMA maps and talking the neighborhood had no impact from Sandy other than rain + wind. Even the boardwalk (asbury) didn't get nearly as bad as Belmar, AC, Sea Bright, etc.
maquiladora
Member
Latest GFS still aiming for landfall further north than the Euro. Everywhere from Florida to New England needs to keep an eye on it.
Hopefully it avoids the islands first...
Hopefully it avoids the islands first...
Smiles and Cries
Member
Latest GFS still aiming for landfall further north than the Euro. Everywhere from Florida to New England needs to keep an eye on it.
Hopefully it avoids the islands first...
I'm right there in CT damn hope this thing turns East sooner
Smiles and Cries
Member
September 10? I should be flying back to NYC from California that night eh this is going to suck if the timing ends up accurate
fluffydelusions
Member
smokeandmirrors
Banned
Okay yep definitely time to keep a keener eye on this storm...
TarpitCarnivore
Member
I'm worried, but we are still a long ways out and Ventusky is just making estimates like any other tracker.
Euro still has it hitting South Carolina, while the GFS has it making landfall over New Jersey / Manhattan
fluffydelusions
Member
AudioEppa
Member
I guess Uncharted The Lost Legacy is my last story game ever.. 😂😂😭 Happy I got to play the COD WWII beta. I gotta finish prison break season 5. To every video game, tv show and movie in my backlog, I'm sorry. I hope everyone enjoys the 2017 fall tv season. I hope Detroit: Became Human and Days Gone win some GOTY awards in 2018. The Last of Us Part II 😭😭😭 I hope PS5 in 2020 or 2021 is beyond perfect and the PS fam loves it... I never got to go to E3 or PSX 💔
I think I'm going to watch Grave of the Fireflies one last time to prepare myself. And as always. Fuck Comcast.
maquiladora
Member
12Z GFS has lost it's mind
StopMakingSense
Member
Holy moly.
fluffydelusions
Member
12Z GFS has lost it's mind
What does that mean? Going up the East Coast? I'm sorry for a dumb question if it is lol
maquiladora
Member
The pressure reading (if that happened) would make it the 3rd most intense hurricane on record and the most intense for a hurricane in the part of the ocean. I think it's overdoing it a bit...
smokeandmirrors
Banned
Sub 900mb pressure is an incredibly strong category 5 hurricane
Is it still too early to panic about a Jersey landfall? When's a good time during the week otherwise for accuracy?
Yeah...we don't need that...