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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

M

MrJames

Member
18z GFS: Pressure ain't nuthin but a number.

iFx20Ra.png
 
A

akileese

Member
Chumly said:
I must have missed where I said to not follow the storm.
Click to expand...

Well what's your definition of stressing out? I don't really see people here panicking and trying to buy out a grocery store. All I was saying was there's nothing wrong with prepping for worst case scenario in a few days when we have a better idea of how it's tracking. The model is shifting so rapidly on a 12 hour basis that it seems impossible to even predict where/if it makes landfall.
 
V

Vuapol

Member
MrJames said:
18z GFS: Pressure ain't nuthin but a number.
Click to expand...

I've noticed that if you select the closer regional views the pressure drops.

gfs_mslp_uv850_seus_29.png


Meet Typhoon Tip II: Electric Boogaloo.

Again, 10 day forecasts and all, but the fact that this image even exists is ridiculous.
 
L

Lord_Byron28

Member
Retro said:
938 at landfall, 16th lowest on record.



Delaware beaches erode right up to boardwalk businesses if a Nor'Easter so much as looks at them funny, I haven't been down to Ocean City but I imagine it's much the same.

The doomsday scenario in my mind is a storm making a perfect run straight up either one of the Delmarva bays and pushing a shitload of water up stream. Those areas are in-land far enough that nobody's prepared for that sort of thing. The Chesapeake would be terrible (especially since all of DE, S. NJ and Philly would be in the NE quadrant), but because there's no dams or impediments along the Delaware River, any surge that comes up the bay is going to go straight up stream and there's no telling how far north it could go. Philly for sure, maybe even Trenton? Again, that's if the hurricane moves in the absolute worst direction to move water straight up the bay. It's a pretty big if.
Click to expand...
Not too mention DC itself is fairly low to the ground and surrounded by water.
 
Nydius

Nydius

Member
That GFS long term path is very reminiscent of the August 1933 hurricane that went up the Chesapeake Bay and caused widespread destruction across the region. My grandparents lived through that hurricane but lost their house and land to flooding up in the Kilmarnock/Tappahannock area. Since I still live in the area I'm hoping this scenario doesn't happen.

Still lots of time left but based on most recent forecast models I'm currently hoping for the more optimistic ECMWF model which keeps it off shore.
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
MrJames said:
18z GFS landfall

y77fhdt.gif
Click to expand...
It's weird seeing a hurricane trajectory model image where I can look at the map and legitimately place a "you are here" arrow on it and not be lying.

Not supposed to see these things in my neck of the woods... although I consider myself somewhat fortunate due to having left my job in Manila just a handful of weeks before Typhoon Ondoy hit in 2009 and flooded 90% of the city.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
jmdajr said:
Well...that looks bad
Click to expand...

Yeah, looks like it shreds the Outer Banks, Delmarva and Tidewater Virginia before pushing up Chesapeake Bay into Baltimore and Washington (or is that pushing Chesapeake Bay up into Baltimore and Washington?) before causing some serious issues inland for Pennsylvania, western New York and eastern Ohio.

That wind field is terrifying, too.
 
T

TarpitCarnivore

Member
GFS has been all over the place.

Y'all can't read too too much into these right now. Get your kits together and be ready but we're still 3-4 days out from anything consistent for mid-Atlantic

Euro has it missing us last Iooked
 
R

Renji_11

Member
Captiosus said:
That GFS long term path is very reminiscent of the August 1933 hurricane that went up the Chesapeake Bay and caused widespread destruction across the region. My grandparents lived through that hurricane but lost their house and land to flooding up in the Kilmarnock/Tappahannock area. Since I still live in the area I'm hoping this scenario doesn't happen.

Still lots of time left but based on most recent forecast models I'm currently hoping for the more optimistic ECMWF model which keeps it off shore.
Click to expand...

Yes that's crazy scary I currently live in NoVa but I am from the area too (Norhumberland) and have family all over the area it would be very bad.
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
Nothing wrong with preparing and staying informed and all that, but you guys are going to drive yourselves nuts obsessing over these computer models. It's still going to be a good couple of days before we have any sort of idea what the real trajectory is going to be.
 
K

KillGore

Member
Meh, honestly I've learned not to trust the forecasts. I've seen storms go against all forecasts. Doesn't mean you shouldn't be prepared though.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Christ... hope that changes up. Parent's place would get fucked in PA and we'd even see some of it here. Gonna be a tense week seeing this thing develop.
 
M

MrJames

Member
New GFS now has landfall in NC near the SC border. UKMet shifts south and west near Cuba. Canadian has landfall in SE Florida and rides I-95 north. It will be interesting to see what the next Euro does. If the shift to the west continues, the Gulf of Mexico may still be in play.
 
C

Cellbomber

Member
NihonTiger90 said:
Yeah, looks like it shreds the Outer Banks, Delmarva and Tidewater Virginia before pushing up Chesapeake Bay into Baltimore and Washington (or is that pushing Chesapeake Bay up into Baltimore and Washington?) before causing some serious issues inland for Pennsylvania, western New York and eastern Ohio.

That wind field is terrifying, too.
Click to expand...

Not sure if you know but DC and Baltimore are very close to each other (as in under 40 minutes). If it comes up the bay it has both...
 
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