I must have missed where I said to not follow the storm.
18z GFS: Pressure ain't nuthin but a number.
Not too mention DC itself is fairly low to the ground and surrounded by water.938 at landfall, 16th lowest on record.
Delaware beaches erode right up to boardwalk businesses if a Nor'Easter so much as looks at them funny, I haven't been down to Ocean City but I imagine it's much the same.
The doomsday scenario in my mind is a storm making a perfect run straight up either one of the Delmarva bays and pushing a shitload of water up stream. Those areas are in-land far enough that nobody's prepared for that sort of thing. The Chesapeake would be terrible (especially since all of DE, S. NJ and Philly would be in the NE quadrant), but because there's no dams or impediments along the Delaware River, any surge that comes up the bay is going to go straight up stream and there's no telling how far north it could go. Philly for sure, maybe even Trenton? Again, that's if the hurricane moves in the absolute worst direction to move water straight up the bay. It's a pretty big if.
18z GFS landfall
What would cause the pressure to swallow it up that "quick"? Just the cooler water and land mass?
18z GFS landfall
18z GFS landfall
It's weird seeing a hurricane trajectory model image where I can look at the map and legitimately place a "you are here" arrow on it and not be lying.18z GFS landfall
18Z GFS is bonkers
Well...that looks bad18z GFS landfall
Nightmare scenario.
Direct hit from DC, up the 270 corridor, and straight towards my front porch.
Well...that looks bad
GFS18z spaghetti plots aren't going out to sea...
GFS18z spaghetti plots aren't going out to sea...
GFS18z spaghetti plots aren't going out to sea...
Powerful Hurricane Irma could be next weather disaster
That GFS long term path is very reminiscent of the August 1933 hurricane that went up the Chesapeake Bay and caused widespread destruction across the region. My grandparents lived through that hurricane but lost their house and land to flooding up in the Kilmarnock/Tappahannock area. Since I still live in the area I'm hoping this scenario doesn't happen.
Still lots of time left but based on most recent forecast models I'm currently hoping for the more optimistic ECMWF model which keeps it off shore.
I really wasn't expecting to check in on this thread and even see my area in the realm of possibility of getting hit in Ohio. Regardless of how unlikely it is, I never thought I'd be looking at what I'm seeing.18z GFS landfall
18z GFS landfall
Tfw you just moved to Boston this week.
Should I start to panic?
I live in midtown Manhattan. God damn it.
Yeah, looks like it shreds the Outer Banks, Delmarva and Tidewater Virginia before pushing up Chesapeake Bay into Baltimore and Washington (or is that pushing Chesapeake Bay up into Baltimore and Washington?) before causing some serious issues inland for Pennsylvania, western New York and eastern Ohio.
That wind field is terrifying, too.
18z GFS landfall