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[Retro]

Basically what I'm seeing from the guys I follow on twitter (namely Bernie Rayno who's generally on the ball with these things) is that the deciding factor is a trough coming into the east late next week that would push Irma out to sea. If it lifts north, there's nothing to steer Irma away and he seems to think Florida or the Carolinas are the most likely impacts.

But again, that won't be for another week so the models are going to go back and forth. But that's the thing they're watching.

 

[NateDrake]

This cannot be the final model because everyone I love takes a direct hit.

A GFS model now has it hitting SC/NC border with a pressure around 900mb. Basically, we are too far out to know anything.

 

[Relix]

OK time to prep up for Irma here in pr. Too close.

 

[maquiladora]

OK time to prep up for Irma here in pr. Too close.

Good idea.

 

[mordecaii83]

Come on Irma, turn! You know you don't really wanna keep going west...

 

[Tubie]

I hope Irma just goes out to sea and hurts nobody, not even those smaller islands.

 

[maquiladora]

Surprised nobody posted the latest Euro.

 

[Poltergust]

I'm worried for Orlando now. It looks like it's just barely going to scrape on by at this rate. If it goes any more west we're at risk of a direct hit.

 

[dabig2]

Surprised nobody posted the latest Euro.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090300/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_10.png[IMG][/QUOTE]

Yikes. Hurricane Matthew hit near there last year and did some big damage, and that made landfall in the States as like a Cat 1. Are those numbers saying this might be at or near a Cat 5 that close to landfall? That would be madness.

 

[mordecaii83]

Shit, both GFS and Euro model trending towards a landfall further and further south...

 

[Rebel Leader]

 

[AudioEppa]

So for the smart people who understand this stuff, what is it looking like for New Jersey? Or is it still too early,

 

[Rebel Leader]

So for the smart people who understand this stuff, what is it looking like for New Jersey? Or is it still too early,

Too early right now

 

[mordecaii83]

So for the smart people who understand this stuff, what is it looking like for New Jersey? Or is it still too early,

Too early, need to wait until middle of the week at least for things to start to take shape with any amount of accuracy.

 

[Smidget]

Not turning north fast enough for my liking here in central FL. Blah!

 

[RedBaron17]

06z GFS is out. Not much change this time. Man, this monster needs to die out at sea and not hit any land.

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

So for the smart people who understand this stuff, what is it looking like for New Jersey? Or is it still too early,

Still far too early. If you go look at the track for Sandy it looked like it wasn't coming stateside for 3 days then made a hard turn. (Sandy track: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KYAgduCCUf8/UR6UBbjtEsI/AAAAAAAAMvA/NRFbtIqUkrs/s1600/Sandy_Track.png)

 

[2MF]

So for the smart people who understand this stuff, what is it looking like for New Jersey? Or is it still too early,

Way too early.

It's never too early to have a plan and the basic supplies ready though. Regardless of Irma, it is hurricane season after all.

 

[BumRush]

So for the smart people who understand this stuff, what is it looking like for New Jersey? Or is it still too early,

Too early but definitely a good time to prepare. Gallons of water, non-perishable food, etc. If this one hits the northeast it could be pretty bad...

 

[witness]

I'm worried for Orlando now. It looks like it's just barely going to scrape on by at this rate. If it goes any more west we're at risk of a direct hit.

Yep, getting really worried. Going to Publix today to stock up.

 

[Plinko]

So for the smart people who understand this stuff, what is it looking like for New Jersey? Or is it still too early,

As others have said, it is way, way too early.

Basically, if you're on the east coast, be prepared. Keep an eye out. As it gets closer you'll still have plenty of time to clear out if needed.

 

[aceface]

Both the Euro and GFS is putting it in the Carolinas now ughhhh

 

[Chococat]

Definitely don't like the one where it makes it to Michigan.

I still have PSTD over every rain that come my way from our 2014 Flood.

 

[Cyanity]

Is it still too early to say whether this could turn into a nor'easter for Boston? We kind of need the rain tbh

 

[maquiladora]

Florida to New England still need to keep an eye on this but the recent trend has been toward to Carolinas landfall. That could easily change.

 

[Y2Kev]

Both the Euro and GFS is putting it in the Carolinas now ughhhh

If it were to come up through the Carolinas, what does that mean for Northeast? Will it carry through there or are we safe?

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

If it were to come up through the Carolinas, what does that mean for Northeast? Will it carry through there or are we safe?

Still to early to tell.

 

[GodofWine]

If it were to come up through the Carolinas, what does that mean for Northeast? Will it carry through there or are we safe?

Too early but any major landfall would take a lot of the sting out of it...in theory. But 50mph gust can still do stuff.

My house is surrounds by big NJ trees that must have survived worse but i worry about them a lot

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

It's the combo of high winds and extremely wet grounds that do trees in

 

[rucury]

OK time to prep up for Irma here in pr. Too close.

Yuuuuuuuuup. Getting ready to spend at least a week without electricity. Our power system is built with stones and sticks.

 

[pulsemyne]

Both the euro and GFS models are catastrophically bad for landfall. 900-920 mb puts the storm in very, very solid catagory 5. It's not just that though it's the size of the storm as well. It's huge.
Would peg the storm along the lines of Hurricane Camille for strength at landfall. Very nasty stuff indeed. If you in the projected area I suggest you make plans to evacuate.

 

[Number_6]

Where do you guys go to get these images? Where are the sources publishing?

 

[RobotHaus]

I'm worried for Orlando now. It looks like it's just barely going to scrape on by at this rate. If it goes any more west we're at risk of a direct hit.

I'm with you amigo, this is looking kind of scary. I hope it just hooks along the coast and no landfall is made in the States.

 

[piratepwnsninja]

Where do you guys go to get these images? Where are the sources publishing?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

 

[MrJames]

12z GFS is till running but it has trended SW along with all the other models. Goes right over the Bahamas instead of east of them. Much closer to Florida before turning north toward the NC/SC border.

 

[maquiladora]

Latest GFS. Still bonkers...

 

[MrJames]

 

[Chumly]

Latest GFS. Still bonkers...

The GFS will be reviewed and tweaked after this hurricane season. It's dramatically over intensifying Irma. It's absurd to think that we could have a 883 MB hurricane approaching the Carolinas. It's simple not even possible.

 

[Miggytronz]

The GFS will be reviewed and tweaked after this hurricane season. It's dramatically over intensifying Irma. It's absurd to think that we could have a 883 MB hurricane approaching the Carolinas. It's simple not even possible.

I’m hearing this from other sources as well.

 

[Zombie James]

Huh, seems to be trending further and further south with each passing day.

 

[Gamecocks625]

I'm in Columbia, SC so I'm def subscribing to this thread

 

[piratepwnsninja]

I'm in Columbia, SC so I'm def subscribing to this thread

I've lived through a big hurricane in South Carolina with Hugo. I'm not sure how Columbia was affected, but Sumter just to the east is where I grew up and we were without power and running water for over a week. So yeah, keep your eye on this.

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

The GFS will be reviewed and tweaked after this hurricane season. It's dramatically over intensifying Irma. It's absurd to think that we could have a 883 MB hurricane approaching the Carolinas. It's simple not even possible.

Is the GFS a NOAA owned service? I'm still shocked we don't dedicate more funds to NOAA considering the level of predictions they're trying to solve

 

[witness]

Getting scarier here in Orlando...

 

[Chumly]

I’m hearing this from other sources as well.

I believe it was updated in July? Obviously it's having issues with long range intensity forecasts. A sub 900 MB hurricane going through the Bahamas up the coast until it hits the Carolinas. For 72 hours? Give me a break.

Basically as soon as it's predicts a potential cat 5 it automatic turns it into hurricane Patricia/ typhoon tip.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will begin flying reconnaissance flights in Irma beginning on Sunday to gain more information on the hurricane's latest intensity and size. In addition, NOAA aircraft will fly high altitude missions starting Monday to gather more data on the atmospheric environment around Irma which could help improve forecast guidance on the storm.

This will help

 

[MrJames]

Getting scarier here in Orlando...

Yep, it's a worrying trend for us in Florida. We should see the 12z Euro in about an hour.

 

[jmdajr]

Prepare now. If you have extra food and supplis who cares.

If you need to leave, leave.. have a plan of action.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Oh great, I have a flight Friday night arriving in Orlando. Hope it avoids all land.

 

[Kusagari]

Yeah, I'm really not liking the trend for Florida.

 

[pulsemyne]

Latest GFS. Still bonkers...

I would be very surprised if it hit that intensity. However if they off by as much as 30MB it would still be an incredibly powerful storm.
If GFS get's the intensity right though then...wow...that would be just gobsmackingly bad. Also imagine the tornados that thing could spawn.
882MB would put it equal with the monster that was Hurricane Gilbert, only it would be further north and probably stronger because of the pressure difference at that latitude.