• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

August 2012 NPD Predictions - Closes September 4

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, September 4th. (Sept. 3rd is a U.S. holiday.) Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: July 29-August 25 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: September 6th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT; Possibility of it being delayed due to Labor Day, but this would be the normal release time.)

IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[360] 300K        [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000     [360] 300.000
[360] 300000      [360] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in August:
Release of 3DSXL on August 19 @ $200 - 7 days
Release of 3DS New Super Mario Bros. 2 on August 19 - 7 days


July's Results - thanks to Nirolak, Petrae, and bigtroyjon

That'd make the numbers to use for predictions ...

360 - 203K
PS3 - 140K
3DS - 131K
WII - 70K
PSV - 48.5K (average of range endpoints)

July 2011 NPD thread
August 2011 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Since there was actually decent video games released this month, I expect sales to increase. Not by a great amount, outside of the 3DS, but I suspect New Super Mario Bros 2 is not enough to beat the 360 this month.

[360] 220k
[3DS] 190k
[PS3] 160k
[PSV] 50k
[WII] 60k

Bonus prediction:
[vanilla DS] 120k
 
Since there was actually decent video games released this month, I expect sales to increase. Not by a great amount, outside of the 3DS, but I suspect New Super Mario Bros 2 is not enough to beat the 360 this month.

It's a new model and NSMB2.

If it doesn't beat the Xbox 360 (which has horrible sales because this generation has lasted too long and nobody cares about those old consoles anymore), then Nintendo might as well transfer the new Pokemon game for iOS.
 
These roll around so fast now that I barely care anymore (and we get few #'s!)

I'd just like to ask I often see the $99 on contract 360 thing touted around boards (which I've never liked it), if it's such a big deal why isn't 360 selling better than mediocre??
 
I'm guessing 360 sales were bad in August and stores are sitting on more supply than expected that they need to clear before holiday bundles show up as there are lots of deals floating around online right now.

Amazon has the Star Wars bundle down to $340 and the 250GB is at $250.
Best Buy also has the 250GB at $250 along with giving one away with a specific TV.
Microsoft Store is throwing in 12 months of Live, media remote, hdmi cable, Kinect Sports 2 and 3 months of Hulu in with the Kinect bundles.
 
I'm guessing 360 sales were bad in August and stores are sitting on more supply than expected that they need to clear before holiday bundles show up as there are lots of deals floating around online right now.

Amazon has the Star Wars bundle down to $340 and the 250GB is at $250.
Best Buy also has the 250GB at $250 along with giving one away with a specific TV.
Microsoft Store is throwing in 12 months of Live, media remote, hdmi cable, Kinect Sports 2 and 3 months of Hulu in with the Kinect bundles.

I think the market contraction has been quicker than anticipated.

MS and Sony should be worried about holiday sales even with reduced pricing.
 
[3DS] 205K
[360] 185K
[PS3] 125K
[WII] 70K
[PSV] 45K

360: 234K
3DS: 314K
PS3: 168K
Wii: 58K
Vita: 37K

Need to use the correct format to have your entry counted.

Edit:
Didn't really look at the other predictions before doing mine, but it seems like all but one other predictor has the PS3 going up in August. Just curious, but what's the reasoning there?
 
Edit:
Didn't really look at the other predictions before doing mine, but it seems like all but one other predictor has the PS3 going up in August. Just curious, but what's the reasoning there?
Surely it was the Gamescom price dro... nm. :(
 
[360] 210K
[3DS] 190K
[PS3] 150K
[WII] 65K
[PSV] 45K

Edit: What do people think the 3DS XL did in a single week? With only three weeks at the July rate, you'd get about 95K. If you predict over 200K, then you expect 100K in the one week? Possible, I guess, but it's August ... a terribly weak month last year, and coming out of another very weak July. Would like to hear how people are rationalizing 200K+.
 
[360] 200k
[3DS] 350k
[PSV] 45k
[PS3] 150k
[WII] 70k


A lot of you really think the XL won't push the 3DS much higher. Interesting. I think it will.
 
Top Bottom