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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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Tommy DJ

Member
How can you say that? All I'm saying is that the chicken little hysteria is a fucking joke. You act like you can predict the future for certain. Yet you didnt predict the pound going down just a few hours ago. You guys gotta stop dealing in absolutes. Calm down. The world will still want to do business with England. Will they be worse off? Maybe. Will they be like the rest of the world that does business with the EU without being in the EU and some how get by? Maybe. Will this even be a news story in a month? Maybe. Who the fuck knows. Apparently a lot of people on my social media feeds. Have they studied economics? No. But they know the answers apparently. They're moving to Ireland. They're going to sell all their shares. They're trying to move their money out of the country. They're fucking morons. You could've asked them a question about world finance 2 days ago and theyd have no idea. Today though. Fucking experts.

Dunno what you're saying in this word salad except that you should stop paying attention to Facebook.

The issue with leaving the European Union is that the United Kingdom's main trade partner is the European Union itself. Unless the United Kingdom is a really special nation with a significant amount of leverage, more so than the European Union, you have to be nuts to think they are going to get a better deal than Norway, who doesn't get a vote yet still has to abide by EU regulations and pay contributions to enter the EEA, or Switzerland, who has bilateral deals and access to the single market yet also has to accept regulations and pay contributions. And unlike those two countries, the United Kingdom isn't mostly self-sufficient like Norway (natural resources) or geographically in the center of the whole of Europe (Switzerland).

Overnight, we saw the European Union (or Germany I guess) argue that they're not going to give the United Kingdom preferred access to the single market. You don't leave something like the European Union like this and go along as if nothing has happened or you haven't impacted the political stability of the region.

No, I'm not Nostradamus. But its common sense to assume that the United Kingdom isn't the British Empire anymore. Or even a United Kingdom anymore if Scotland leaves. Time isn't on their side and they don't have the economic or cultural pull to get a single market the size of the European Union or the United States to give them preferential treaties. In fact, European Union and United States have already stated that the United Kingdom isn't getting any preferential treatment at all. Shit, China even said that the United Kingdom was on route to becoming a small country after the Brexit.

No one saw a Brexit actually happening from the outside because it was completely against British economic interests to do so. Stock markets don't behave rationally when there's uncertainty and this is peak uncertainty when you basically say that in a few years that you're going to leave the union that give you access to the single market that makes up 50% of your exports and imports.

So really instead of posting memes and one sentence zingers, maybe you'd like to engage with our discussion and educate us. As an Australian outside looking in, I'm not seeing any long term advantages to exiting the European Union so it'd be somewhat appreciated if you're willing to tell us why you're so optimistic. No we're not fucking experts but we're on a forum where we don't have word limits.
 

luchadork

Member
Dunno what you're saying in this word salad.

The issue with leaving the European Union is that the United Kingdom's main trade partner is the European Union itself. Unless the United Kingdom is a really special nation with a significant amount of leverage, more so than the European Union, you have to be nuts to think they are going to get a better deal than Norway, who doesn't get a vote yet still has to abide by EU regulations and pay contributions to enter the EEA, or Switzerland, who has bilateral deals and access to the single market yet also has to take part of regulations and pay contributions. And unlike those two countries, the United Kingdom isn't mostly self-sufficient like Norway (natural resources) or geographically in the center of the whole of Europe (Switzerland).

Overnight, we saw the European Union (or Germany I guess) argue that they're not going to give the United Kingdom preferred access to the single market. You don't leave something like the European Union like this and go along as if nothing has happened or you haven't impacted the political stability of the region.

No, I'm not Nostradamus. But its common sense to assume that the United Kingdom isn't the British Empire anymore. Time (two years) isn't on their side and they don't have the economic or cultural pull to get a single market the size of the European Union or the United States to give them preferential treaties.

No one saw a Brexit actually happening because it seemed like it was completely against British economic interests to do so. Stock markets don't behave rationally when there's uncertainty and this is peak uncertainty when you basically say that in two years time that you're going to leave the union that give you access to the single market that makes up 50% of your exports and imports.

So really instead of posting memes and one sentence zingers, maybe you'd like to engage with our discussion and educate us. As an Australian outside looking in, I'm not seeing any long term advantages to exiting the European Union so it'd be somewhat appreciated if you're willing to tell us why you're so optimistic.



I'm not overly optimistic on the global economy. But tbh, your entire argument relies on the EU being incredibly spiteful and not wanting to do business with, until yesterday, the worlds 4th largest economy and the 2nd largest in Europe. It doesn't benefit anyone to do that. And honestly, isn't that a good argument to not want to be a part of a system that could do something so emotional and spiteful? You're suggesting mutually assured economic destruction. I just think thats far fetched and hysterical.

The OP asked whats going to happen. I said nobody knows. We're all just armchair experts. Sure some of us have degrees in economics and finance from shit tier universities and spend far too much time being inflammatory on video game message boards and generally being dickheads. But even they don't know whats going to happen. Honestly, the people who say they have all the answers are usually the ones that know the least. Economics is a soft science, full of opinions and feelings and ideology. And its often wrong. You dont have the answers, Sway. Noone does.

All that we really know is that we're currently watching a few rich cunts win and lose 'money' while the rest of us watch. For the first time in a long time though, the people got to speak and they have given a big fuck you to the politicians and the financial industry.

The reasons I am pessimistic on the EU are: the way they handled the Eurozone Crisis; their lack of response to the Ukraine conflict; the way they have become corrupt to big business (VW scandal); and the way they have 'dealt' with migrant crisis. The UK are making a gamble. Trading short term pain for hopefully long term sovereignty and not having to deal with the EUs shit.

Honestly, the way the eurozone crisis was handled is what makes me the most pessimistic. Everyone is talking about how we should just listen to the economists. But these are the same economists that forced non-keynesian austerity measures on PIGS which i think we can all agree has been a complete fucking failure. I mean I don't know how much you want me to go into it or not. But honestly, the result was that the mistakes of the banks (aka the experts) have gotten passed down on to the people. Its fucking bullshit. And its what the people of the UK have voted to try and avoid.

Imagine if the economy in Australia tanks because some bank cunts fuck up and then we have to rely on Indonesia to lend us money at insane rates to keep the country going because we basically can't use monetary policy to try and help stimulate it; our currency cant be devalued so we cant sell our cheap shit to other countries; and at the same time, some Indonesian dude in a suit is telling OUR government that they have to make all these cuts to the budget otherwise no money. Unemployment grows to 30%. A whole bunch of immigrants are flooding in through our borders cause we can't afford to deal with it. Tax receipts are down so we are unable to service our new debts. And the shit just spirals out of control and theres nothing we can do about it because we have no sovereignty on the way our country is run. You can try and internally devalue your currency (aka cut wages) but you'll NEVER be able to compete with China or India so you're fucked. And all at the same time some cunts in New Zealand are telling Indonesia to be even harsher to us because we've of long standing political and cultural reasons (see: spitefulness).

The above happened to Greece. I'm not speculating on some sky is falling doomsday mutually assured economic destruction scenario. I'm basing my pessimism on the EU of how they handled an economic crisis a few years ago. If I had a chance to get out of that system before losing all sovereignty I would.

A lot of my friends that are pro-EU are anti-austerity. Isn't that weird?
A lot of my friends that are pro-EU are anti-TPP. Isn't that weird?

Its almost like they don't know what they're talking about. ~shrugs~
 

darkace

Banned
The point is:

A) They haven't actually improved their sovereignty at all. If they want to participate in the single market then they need to follow their regulations. All they've done is remove their ability to influence these regulations for their benefit. The UK needs the EU much more than vice-versa.

B) There is no chance the EU will make this easy on them, and will likely make it as painful as possible to discourage further leavers. The EU has absolutely no incentive to quickly legislate or negotiate in any area. Or even do anything other than stick a giant middle finger right back at them.

C) The monetary policy fears are unfounded as the BoE is a separate entity from the ECB and is solely responsible for monetary policy within the UK.

D) The experts are the ones the UK followed to their best of their ability and their economy is now one of the best performing in the developed world. The EU has deep structural and transparency issues which are felt world-wide, but the UK is much more powerful as a force for further reform within the EU than they are outside it.

The UK doesn't actually gain from leaving the EU in any area. It's a clear net negative.
 

Yagharek

Member
The head of state of Australia is the Queen of the United Kingdom.

WHEREAS the people of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Queensland, and Tasmania, humbly relying on the blessing of Almighty God, have agreed to unite in one indissoluble Federal Commonwealth under the Crown of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, and under the Constitution hereby established:

And whereas it is expedient to provide for the admission into the Commonwealth of other Australasian Colonies and possessions of the Queen:

Be it therefore enacted by the Queen's most Excellent Majesty, by and with the advice and consent of the Lords Spiritual and Temporal, and Commons, in this present Parliament assembled, and by the authority of the same, as follows:

If Scotland leaves the UK, is the UK even an entity? Do we need to have a referendum then in light of a potential Scexit (Or Scentry into the EU)?

What happens to the flag or the union jack? Do we subtract the scottish bit?
 
If Scotland leaves the UK, is the UK even an entity? Do we need to have a referendum then in light of a potential Scexit (Or Scentry into the EU)?

What happens to the flag or the union jack? Do we subtract the scottish bit?

No idea?

9zxb4zcs-1395704070.jpg

I assume we'd have to change our flag as well.
 

mjontrix

Member
http://www.sbs.com.au/yourlanguage/...promises-5-years-continuous-stay-visa-parents

So we're basically selling all homes in Australia now to foreigners FIRB be damned.

And we're throwing in access to the best primary schools as well!

FFS pack it up we're done and Labor has similar policy too clearly bought by the same donors.

Please someone stop China before it's too late - Indonesia bomb a Chinese warship or something just start a war with them please before Australia is truly gone for its citizens.
 
I've been hearing about it being silly to have 5 PMs in 5 years (if Shorten is PM next week it will actually be 5 PMs within 3 years and a week). But it's so transparently self-serving. If Turnbull cares about that he wouldn't have tried to cause a spill to be the 4th PM in 19 months, and then again to succeed in under 2 years and 3 months.
 

Antiwhippy

the holder of the trombone
http://www.sbs.com.au/yourlanguage/...promises-5-years-continuous-stay-visa-parents

So we're basically selling all homes in Australia now to foreigners FIRB be damned.

And we're throwing in access to the best primary schools as well!

FFS pack it up we're done and Labor has similar policy too clearly bought by the same donors.

Please someone stop China before it's too late - Indonesia bomb a Chinese warship or something just start a war with them please before Australia is truly gone for its citizens.

Maybe we should have a referendum eh?

Do you really want to say that considering Australia's history with Chinese immigration?
 
Malcolm Turnbull: Vote for me as I'm better at the economy because... well... I am.

If the next week is dominated by Brexit, falling currencies, markets still in freefall, the Coalition will win easily. Their most successful "lie" has always been they are better at the economy even when there is no evidence to back it up.

Lols: Free cell phones for oldies!
 

darkace

Banned
While Brexit has made a coalition majority in the HoR inevitable, I think the bigger impact will be in the upper house. A call for stability following Brexit is likely to be listened to by a not insignificant portion of the population.
 
While Brexit has made a coalition majority in the HoR inevitable, I think the bigger impact will be in the upper house. A call for stability following Brexit is likely to be listened to by a not insignificant portion of the population.

There's something ironic about voting in a government of the same ideological leaning of the one that just fucked stability for stability.
 

i_am_ben

running_here_and_there
I've become increasingly worried about the gay marriage plebiscite in light of the Brexit vote. I have this awful feeling that it wont be compulsory and young people won't vote.
 

Jintor

Member
given that lib MPs aren't bound by it what's even the point?

literally a taxpayer funded excuse to spout hate under the guise of political discourse
 

Antiwhippy

the holder of the trombone
I've become increasingly worried about the gay marriage plebiscite in light of the Brexit vote. I have this awful feeling that it wont be compulsory and young people won't vote.

I mean aren't the majority of Australians for it anyway, and not just the young people?
 
D

Deleted member 30609

Unconfirmed Member
http://www.sbs.com.au/yourlanguage/...promises-5-years-continuous-stay-visa-parents

So we're basically selling all homes in Australia now to foreigners FIRB be damned.

And we're throwing in access to the best primary schools as well!

FFS pack it up we're done and Labor has similar policy too clearly bought by the same donors.

Please someone stop China before it's too late - Indonesia bomb a Chinese warship or something just start a war with them please before Australia is truly gone for its citizens.

is this satirical?
 
given that lib MPs aren't bound by it what's even the point?

literally a taxpayer funded excuse to spout hate under the guise of political discourse

I don't think anyone is really sure what the conditions will be yet. Some have suggested that if their electorate votes over 50% no then the MP is not bound. Will probably lead to the ACL and their like carpet bombing country seats.

Imagine the shit-show if Australia voted in the majority, greater than 70% atm, yet it still didn't pass Parliament. Turnbull's PM'ship would be completely untenable and he'd have to go and any move to swap to a right-wing anti SSM person like Morrison would be go nowhere. Turnbull may have backed himself into a corner he'll never get out of all for a little more than 1 year as PM.
 

Tommy DJ

Member

I'm not sure why you're so angry at people proficient in their field. If you're not going to listen to people proficient in their field, then who the hell are you going to ask?

There's zero reason for the European Union to give the United Kingdom a preferential deal. The United Kingdom, unfortunately, cannot move their country somewhere else so they're forced to deal with the political and economic situation of Europe regardless if they leave or remain.

Again, the European Union is the single largest market in the world. They don't even need to be spiteful because everyone plays by their rules. You either follow their regulations and pay contributions or you don't get access the single market. Its that simple. The only difference now is that United Kingdom has now no formal vote of influence as they're no longer part of the union, much like Norway and Switzerland are. But unlike a country like Norway, the United Kingdom's essentials (40% food is imported, close to 50% power is imported) are completely dependent on the Europe mainland. Both the European Union and United Kingdom need each other but the United Kingdom is far more dependent on the European Union in this situation.

So by leaving the union, I'm not seeing how they have gained any significant benefits in terms of sovereignty. You get no vote in whatever the union does and the European Central Bank never had any real control over the Bank of England who is, by all intents and purposes, autonomous and able to exact monetary policy to the benefit of the United Kingdom alone.

The longer this uncertainty continues, which is probably a while since I've seen zero serious real exit plan from just about anyone, no one is going to seriously entertain large foreign direct investment. In the case of the United Kingdom, 50% of that investment is from the Europe mainland.

Just wait. Some numbnut will tie gay marriage to boat people and islam and then all bets will be off.

That's how my neighbour thinks. He thinks if gay marriage is legalised, young people aren't going to get married anymore and no one is going to have children and
 

darkace

Banned
There's something ironic about voting in a government of the same ideological leaning of the one that just fucked stability for stability.

Our last three years have been relatively stable compared to what economies generally see after winding down from booms. No government would have seen a totally smooth transition here.
 

Arksy

Member

The vote was not a vote to install an outboard motor to the British Isles and propel it towards the US. It was a vote to leave the political structures of the European Union. There is currently a tariff free zone that stretches from non-EU Iceland on one side to non-EU Turkey on the other. The UK is not leaving the single market.

In terms of sovereignty, there are great benefits. Firstly, British rule will regain paramountcy from the EU. British people will now be able to hire and fire their lawmakers, and a direct link to the legislative agenda of their country. Your argument about having to abide by rules that you have no say in is rather silly. Australia has no say in the laws of Indonesia but has to comply with Indonesian standards should it wish to sell to the Indonesian market. The same principle applies globally...but Australia does not need to apply Indonesian standards to our own market, or when selling to Malaysia.

Anyway, what's going on down in Australia with the current election campaign? I've been so busy campaigning here for the one just passed that I haven't even kept up.
 
Our last three years have been relatively stable compared to what economies generally see after winding down from booms. No government would have seen a totally smooth transition here.

I more meant that its funny to elect a Conservative government (for stability) after the British Conservative Government just fucked stability. It's far from unheard of (see George Bush's re-election in 2004) but its not exactly a logical response.

The vote was not a vote to install an outboard motor to the British Isles and propel it towards the US. It was a vote to leave the political structures of the European Union. There is currently a tariff free zone that stretches from non-EU Iceland on one side to non-EU Turkey on the other. The UK is not leaving the single market.

In terms of sovereignty, there are great benefits. Firstly, British rule will regain paramountcy from the EU. British people will now be able to hire and fire their lawmakers, and a direct link to the legislative agenda of their country. Your argument about having to abide by rules that you have no say in is rather silly. Australia has no say in the laws of Indonesia but has to comply with Indonesian standards should it wish to sell to the Indonesian market. The same principle applies globally...but Australia does not need to apply Indonesian standards to our own market, or when selling to Malaysia.

Anyway, what's going on down in Australia with the current election campaign? I've been so busy campaigning here for the one just passed that I haven't even kept up.

It's been pretty tedious. They've started the scare campaigns now that we're towards the end (The Coalition will Privatize Medicare, Labor will cause instability and waste , and Minority Government will cause Chaos and Havoc) but it's largely been incredibly by the books and so long that people have tuned out.
 

darkace

Banned
Eh I think the LNP are running a platform that'd be more stable than the ALP. Obviously it's hardly night and day, but then again the LNP aren't (and couldn't) privatising medicare. All parties obviously take part in hyperbole, but there's a grain of truth.
 
Eh I think the LNP are running a platform that'd be more stable than the ALP. Obviously it's hardly night and day, but then again the LNP aren't (and couldn't) privatising medicare. All parties obviously take part in hyperbole, but there's a grain of truth.

Labor have overplayed the whole Medicare thing. There's no way in a millions years after the election the Coalition would suddenly privatise the entire system, they'd probably lose all 150 seats at the next election if they tried that. A more sensible campaign about the constant watering down or weakening of Medicare to a more user-pays system would have been far more effective in the long term.

Bill relaunched his bus today, it's now the "Save Medicare" bus!

They must be really worried about Zed Seselja in the ACT, his ads are everywhere on TV and even here on GAF. Surprised he has that much in his budget.
 

darkace

Banned
Honestly I think privatising the payments aspect of medicare would be good. I can't see a reason it should be in public hands. It's seriously outdated and costs the government a bomb to run an underperforming system.

But to show this as somehow privatising the entire medicare system is seriously dishonest.
 

mjontrix

Member
I more meant that its funny to elect a Conservative government (for stability) after the British Conservative Government just fucked stability. It's far from unheard of (see George Bush's re-election in 2004) but its not exactly a logical response.



It's been pretty tedious. They've started the scare campaigns now that we're towards the end (The Coalition will Privatize Medicare, Labor will cause instability and waste , and Minority Government will cause Chaos and Havoc) but it's largely been incredibly by the books and so long that people have tuned out.

Doesn't help that both leaders have the charisma of a dry salad.

For those turned off by OTA TV and just use Netflix I doubt bar the occasional FB/Twitter post that they'd know we were even having an election.
 

Arksy

Member
Labor have overplayed the whole Medicare thing. There's no way in a millions years after the election the Coalition would suddenly privatise the entire system, they'd probably lose all 150 seats at the next election if they tried that. A more sensible campaign about the constant watering down or weakening of Medicare to a more user-pays system would have been far more effective in the long term.

Bill relaunched his bus today, it's now the "Save Medicare" bus!

They must be really worried about Zed Seselja in the ACT, his ads are everywhere on TV and even here on GAF. Surprised he has that much in his budget.

Did they learn nothing from the EU referendum?
 

Yagharek

Member
Eh I think the LNP are running a platform that'd be more stable than the ALP. Obviously it's hardly night and day, but then again the LNP aren't (and couldn't) privatising medicare. All parties obviously take part in hyperbole, but there's a grain of truth.

I don't trust the right wing of the LNP with anything. A truly centrist LNP would be tolerable so long as they addressed some serious climate change policy and stopped doing what the IPA tells them.

Any party with Morrison, Bernadi, Christensen, Abbott and Abetz is worse than a haemorrhoid.
 

Shaneus

Member
Labor have overplayed the whole Medicare thing. There's no way in a millions years after the election the Coalition would suddenly privatise the entire system, they'd probably lose all 150 seats at the next election if they tried that. A more sensible campaign about the constant watering down or weakening of Medicare to a more user-pays system would have been far more effective in the long term.

Bill relaunched his bus today, it's now the "Save Medicare" bus!
Yeah, I think the ALP screwed the pooch by putting all their eggs in the Medicare basket. Their only saving grace is that they've released their budget costings, while the Libs are releasing theirs after the election. Damn Labor had better milk that for all it's worth.

Also, the "stability" argument offered by the LNP is such a load of bullshit. They were the last government to have a split within the ranks, and continue to do so with the far-right of the party that Yag mentioned above. Far less stable than the ALP, who are far more unified within their party on their policies.

A majority LNP government will never be a true majority while those fuckwads are still in there. At least Barnaby is likely to get kicked out. Hopefully Sarah Henderson too, useless flog.
 

Dryk

Member
It really confuses me that the LNP are still running with "we do economy good yo" after the the last three years have had their economic plan go nowhere fast. Especially since there's no correlation between sitting party and economic performance anyway.
 

Shaneus

Member
It really confuses me that the LNP are still running with "we do economy good yo" after the the last three years have had their economic plan go nowhere fast. Especially since there's no correlation between sitting party and economic performance anyway.
And especially now they don't have a plan to announce until after they (presumably, but hopefully don't) get voted in.
 

Dryk

Member
And especially now they don't have a plan to announce until after they (presumably, but hopefully don't) get voted in.
I guess the plan is to see how many elections in a row you can ride purely on the misguided assumption that they're good economic managers.
 
Albo's an attack dog, not a leader.

Don't know about that. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone with a greater love of politics, the History, the process and preserving the good in it. In some ways he's the Labor version of Bill Heffernen. Both say the occasional silly thing but you'd never doubt their belief in the process and their own sides. Maybe leader would be a step too far for Albo or maybe he'd flourish and become a great. No one else would deserve success more than he.

I suppose it all depends on the result on Saturday, if Bill pushes the Coalition close to minority or even into it there is a very good chance he'd stay one. Kim Carr, the ultimate left-wing warrior has already said he expects Bill to stay. If not the left will want their turn and Plibersek may have jumped Albo in the queue.
 

darkace

Banned
I'd be interested in who the LNP choose if they lose and Turnbull retires. I'm not a fan of Albo as a leader but he's miles better than any potential I can see in the LNP ranks. Same with Plibersek, although I'm more interested in her than Albo.
 
Don't know about that. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone with a greater love of politics, the History, the process and preserving the good in it. In some ways he's the Labor version of Bill Heffernen. Both say the occasional silly thing but you'd never doubt their belief in the process and their own sides. Maybe leader would be a step too far for Albo or maybe he'd flourish and become a great. No one else would deserve success more than he.

I suppose it all depends on the result on Saturday, if Bill pushes the Coalition close to minority or even into it there is a very good chance he'd stay one. Kim Carr, the ultimate left-wing warrior has already said he expects Bill to stay. If not the left will want their turn and Plibersek may have jumped Albo in the queue.

Its hard to believe that we're in a situation where the left even has a shot at that. Prior to Gillard the right has dominated ALP leader ship since at least Whitlam.
 
Its hard to believe that we're in a situation where the left even has a shot at that. Prior to Gillard the right has dominated ALP leader ship since at least Whitlam.

I suppose it's a reflection of the new leadership voting rules Rudd introduced. The membership, what is left, is predominately from the left and it's getting harder and harder to stack branches for the right any more. It took a pretty heroic effort from Shorten to overcome his membership deficit in caucus with I imagine a lot of prime jobs promised to lefties.
 

D.Lo

Member
Albo is like a cross between Hawke and Keating. And it's basically confirmed he'll challenge after the election.
 

Yagharek

Member
It really confuses me that the LNP are still running with "we do economy good yo" after the the last three years have had their economic plan go nowhere fast. Especially since there's no correlation between sitting party and economic performance anyway.

When things go well it's all their doing.
When things go bad it's the other lots doing.
When things are bad and getting worse it would always be worse with the other guys in charge even if we made it worse.
When things are good because of the other guys stop the boats.
 
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