AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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I'm probably gonna go with the Progressives first, Greens second, Labor third, and so on. Unfortunately, my vote in terms of my electorate's lower house rep is functionally meaningless as I'm in Joe Hockey's old stronghold of North Sydney, which is solid blue.
 
I'm probably gonna go with the Progressives first, Greens second, Labor third, and so on. Unfortunately, my vote in terms of my electorate's lower house rep is functionally meaningless as I'm in Joe Hockey's old stronghold of North Sydney, which is solid blue.
I know that feeling, the only reason that I've ever voted in an electorate that wasn't the National's green in its blood is because the LNP logo is blue.
 

Antiwhippy

the holder of the trombone
I've moved to the stronghold of Tony Smith, but I really don't know too much about him other than his recent appointment to speaker of the house of Representatives.
 
I'm reading about the Q&A thing and it's so cartoonishly typical

"Why can't my children have a childhood?"
"Because we're trying to make jobs for them, get some perspective"
 
My electorate has gone ALP once in its history. Decided to vote ALP though, even if only for the Senate.

I'm reading about the Q&A thing and it's so cartoonishly typical

"Why can't my children have a childhood?"
"Because we're trying to make jobs for them, get some perspective"
To be fair, I just watched this, and she's not wrong. It's difficult to state why these moves are good when such an emotional question is asked.

All taxes distort the economy, disincentivise labour, saving and investment and reduce growth. The idea is to reduce government reliance on revenue streams that do this a large amount for those that do this a small amount. So company tax should be removed and replaced with a large land-value tax. Mineral rent should be removed and replaced with a large carbon tax etc.

The current budget actually raises taxes over the long-run, although their rhetoric says otherwise. It does this in a way that will make people much better off. Growing productivity and investment is the only way for a country to be wealthy in the long-term, which is what this budget does. You can't have a significant welfare system if the country isn't also significantly wealthy.

And if that guy is low-skilled, low-wage earning and disabled, he is eligible to a very large amount of government assistance already:

http://bettertax.gov.au/our-tax-system/individuals-income-tax/progressivity/

And really, how exactly can the government cut taxes on those earning under 80K? Gillard made the system extraordinarily progressive with her tax changes, I don't think there is much need to alter the very bottom for a significant time to come.
 
The libs barely bother competing in my seat!
Franklin I assume? Used to be mine. Or Denison?

I'm in one called Durack. Largest electorate geographically in the country. Safe Lib seat with nationals next in line. Pointless voting in reps but at least senate vote is meaningful with the full upper house on the line.
 
Wrong. She is hilarious and entertaining, I hope she's on TV for years to come. Or until Jason Ball is voted in and she's out.

Oh, and Richard Marles is in my electorate. Yay me.
She is hilarious, not an once of magnanimity in her soul though. But jeez, they must cringe a little at liberal HQ when she goes on TV.

My seat has never been anything other than Labor and my local member, Andrew Leigh, was on Q&A last night, nice guy see him at the shops a lot! They've changed the name from Fraser->Fenner at this election as it was not named for Malcolm Fraser and now that he's died they want to name a seat in Victoria after Malcolm and consign Jim Fraser to history.

And in other news, Abbott totes won't be a destroyer like Rudd:

Tony Abbott supporters planning Eden-Monaro boycott
 
Franklin I assume? Used to be mine. Or Denison?

I'm in one called Durack. Largest electorate geographically in the country. Safe Lib seat with nationals next in line. Pointless voting in reps but at least senate vote is meaningful with the full upper house on the line.
Denison, progressive dystopia.

Actually I saw eric abetz driving his campaign 4wd this morning on my way to work, then my boss mentioned that as soon as Eric finished uni he was given the capital by "a wealthy benefactor" to start his own law firm. What bootstraps!

Also, Katherine murphy's essay on the guardian about bill is worth a read.
 
Good article from Peter Brent on how close polls don't necessarily mean a close election: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-10/brent-this-election-'too-close-to-call'/7397384

I am a fan of Peter Brent because while I often disagree with his positions, I find them to be fairly well argued most of the time.
Yeah I still not convinced about Labor's primary vote. They could win popular and still fall many seats short. Too many preferences leaking to the Libs especially with the potential green/coalition alliance in inner city seats.

Innovation!


 
I've always felt that the libs would win a second term but I've been wrong before. I seems like the libs will win a large portion of senate seats but probably not enough to form a majority.
 
I've always felt that the libs would win a second term but I've been wrong before. I seems like the libs will win a large portion of senate seats but probably not enough to form a majority.
They should win 5 in each state plus 2 from the territories. SA is a wildcard, they might only win 4 due to NXT. Might also be in with a shot with a 6th in QLD, NSW and WA. Probably end up with somewhere between 31-34, well short of the 39 required for a majority.
 

Antiwhippy

the holder of the trombone
I knew tony was gone after the first term, but I didn't predict how quick he actually went.

Knew during the election that he was too insufferable to actually last 1 term. If labor didn't implode with infighting we might not have had to deal with Tony.
 
I knew tony was gone after the first term, but I didn't predict how quick he actually went.

Knew during the election that he was too insufferable to actually last 1 term. If labor didn't implode with infighting we might not have had to deal with Tony.

Impossible to know, if Rudd won a second term he may have lost it anyway. If they won a third they most likely will be facing losing this election. But again, hypotheticals are hard. :p
 

Antiwhippy

the holder of the trombone
Hmm, true, but I was more thinking that it might have curbed Tony's faction in the liberal party over turnbull's, but I might be misaligning the timeline of the labour infighting with Tony being leader of opposition.
 
I know Tassie is pretty annoyed we didn't get anything we asked for funding for in the budget, Labor has promised us funding for some of the stuff we asked for, and we have 3 marginal seats, Lyons Bass and Braddon, where the liberals are ahead by <5% We might swing back to Labor for this election if Shorten keeps the deal sweet? But I'll admit, I'm not a Tassie native, I don't know much of the history of the parties here
 
I know Tassie is pretty annoyed we didn't get anything we asked for funding for in the budget, Labor has promised us funding for some of the stuff we asked for, and we have 3 marginal seats, Lyons Bass and Braddon, where the liberals are ahead by <5% We might swing back to Labor for this election if Shorten keeps the deal sweet? But I'll admit, I'm not a Tassie native, I don't know much of the history of the parties here
The north is fucked economically, so there's a lot of discontent and room for pork. It's very much socially conservative but would traditionally lean old, protectionist labor economically - it's the kind of area that would vote for Trump if it could. Iirc bass has switched hands for the last five elections.
 
So how long do we think Shorten's rejection of a Labor Greens coalition would hold given it was a path to government ?

(And I mean in the House because Shorten knows as well as I do his chances of a Senate majority without the Greens)
 
So how long do we think Shorten's rejection of a Labor Greens coalition would hold given it was a path to government ?

(And I mean in the House because Shorten knows as well as I do his chances of a Senate majority without the Greens)
About as long as it takes him to find di Natale's phone number. Both parties would sell their arses for government.
 
Greens were just about de facto government last term anyway. The CPRS was clearly partially or wholly designed by them. Part of the reason it no longer exists as well.
 
Greens were just about de facto government last term anyway. The CPRS was clearly partially or wholly designed by them. Part of the reason it no longer exists as well.
Funny that it was the most successful single term of government in recent memory. Fuck Abbott and the liberals for burying an extremely good piece of climate legislation.
 
Funny that it was the most successful single term of government in recent memory. Fuck Abbott and the liberals for burying an extremely good piece of climate legislation.
Depends how you define successful. If it's by the long-lasting effects then the only way it will be successful is if the ALP win government this election. Although I did really like Gillard personally and as a leader.
 
About as long as it takes him to find di Natale's phone number. Both parties would sell their arses for government.
And both parties would happily get into bed to prevent a second Coalition term. While the right-leaning part of Labor will grumble, the Greens under Di Natale have become a lot more willing to compromise and negotiate.
 
Tomrorow's tele. I'm predicting at least another 10 Anti-Greens front pages. You'd think they were the actual opposition party.
I wonder how many times the Tele staff had to wash themselves after printing that to feel clean again. Printing an article in support of Albanese must be their equivalent of Superman bathing in Kryptonite.
 
And both parties would happily get into bed to prevent a second Coalition term. While the right-leaning part of Labor will grumble, the Greens under Di Natale have become a lot more willing to compromise and negotiate.
Bowen was on 7.30 earlier insisting on no alliances or coalitions but let slip at the end that if someone wants place confidence [in parliament] in the ALP he'd be fine with that!
 
It's not the way I'll be voting, but an outcome I'm okay with (aka fan-fiction) is Malcolm winning, leading the coalition in his own right, flushing out the deadwood and god-botherers, and Bill Whatsisface being replaced with Albo.

I stand by the belief that Malcolm's ineffectiveness is due to the party holding him back. A win in his own right should improve sway over the party. The electorate is more progressive than the coalition's ideology and it would be nice to see that reflected in our elected representatives.
 
It's not the way I'll be voting, but an outcome I'm okay with (aka fan-fiction) is Malcolm winning, leading the coalition in his own right, flushing out the deadwood and god-botherers, and Bill Whatsisface being replaced with Albo.

I stand by the belief that Malcolm's ineffectiveness is due to the party holding him back. A win in his own right should improve sway over the party. The electorate is more progressive than the coalition's ideology and it would be nice to see that reflected in our elected representatives.
Sorry, but this is fantasy. Christensen, Bernardi, Hastie, Andrews, Abetz, Abbott: they are not going anywhere. Vote them out.
 
The first draft of this idea included Boba Fett and Hermione so be grateful this is at least somewhat grounded in reality.
I think the major issue here is that even if Malcom does win in his own right, it's mainly his support that are going to bite it with lost seats. The hard right are much safer and the National style seats generally even more so. So he'd need to be returned with a considerably larger margin than I think he'll get to genuinely be secure. if he just makes it across the line with less than ~10 seats then chances are he won't have the internal strength so survive a spill which probably puts him in an even worse position in the long run (they aren't going to knife him in under 12 months if he wins the election but 14 months afterwards ? Yeah , they totally would).
 
None of the people you listed will be in cabinet. They'll just be doing the exact same thing they're doing now, complaining loudly about fringe issues. I'll be voting liberal, but I'm not a huge fan of any of those guys either. I'm more than happy to accept some crackpots if it means that the ALP don't get government.
 
I thought Malcolm needed an election behind him to regain control, but the negative gearing and tax stuff isn't right wing craziness, it's just 'Labor is wrong' for the sake of it. Very poor leadership.
 
None of the people you listed will be in cabinet. They'll just be doing the exact same thing they're doing now, complaining loudly about fringe issues. I'll be voting liberal, but I'm not a huge fan of any of those guys either. I'm more than happy to accept some crackpots if it means that the ALP don't get government.
Hey, look, it's the internal monologue of every Republican in 1990!
 
Bernardi has lost the no.1 sentate ticket in SA, dropped to 2. Not really sure if it means too much as it's a full senate election so one of the no. 1s from the half-senate tickets had to drop to 2.

The far right nutters while not sitting in cabinet, they are all in safe seats/position and if Malcolm's position after the election is tenuous in seat numbers it will only embolden the RWNJs. You though the whole safe schools nonsense was bad wait till this loonies think they can control the government direction through withdrawal of their support/confidence.
 
Bernardi has lost the no.1 sentate ticket in SA, dropped to 2. Not really sure if it means too much as it's a full senate election so one of the no. 1s from the half-senate tickets had to drop to 2.

The far right nutters while not sitting in cabinet, they are all in safe seats/position and if Malcolm's position after the election is tenuous in seat numbers it will only embolden the RWNJs. You though the whole safe schools nonsense was bad wait till this loonies think they can control the government direction through withdrawal of their support/confidence.
That means a fresh election you realise?
 
I've become so disheartened with politics over the decades of voting I've been involved in my vote goes to whichever party will deliver a useful NBN in a reasonable time.

Call me shallow or what have you I just don't care to vote for the lesser of evils anymore. Mandatory voting probably skews our process anyhow.
 
That means a fresh election you realise?
We're already having an election because the Coalition doesn't like the makeup and wants to shuffle the decks. If they fall across the line but don't like the makeup again and try another election they will get punished by the electorate.
 
We're already having an election because the Coalition doesn't like the makeup and wants to shuffle the decks. If they fall across the line but don't like the makeup again and try another election they will get punished by the electorate.
No doubt. Hence why I think it won't happen.
 
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