What I don't understand is the Wii U has an advantage in the userbase regarding nextgen, even if it is not selling well right now, PS4 and Durango have 0 install base, so that argument is flawed IMHO.
We know Nintendo will push the Wii U hard this second half.
Now Nintendo needs to fix a lot of things, I hope they pull through.
I don't doubt that Nintendo will make a push (especially Q4), but will be enough to matter and build a significant install base? That's a multi-front battle for Nintendo:
-- Last-gen hardware will likely be benefitting from price cuts and from a still-strong slate of software (Madden, FIFA, GTA, AssCreed, CoD, etc.)
-- New-gen hardware launches will catch the attention of the core gaming consumer with the promise of better graphics, newer games, etc.
I think that last-gen hardware rules (at least here in the US) this holiday season before new-gen transition gradually ramps up as 2014 goes on.
That puts Nintendo in a position where its games-- and its games only-- are the sole advantage the Wii U will have. I'm not sure that's going to be enough, even with games that I'm sure will make Nintendo fans very happy indeed.
To the original point, even with Nintendo's push, I don't think it's enough potential to improve install numbers enough to make Wii U development more attractive in terms of ROI. Most third-party pubs are going to trust that PS4 and Fusion/Infinity/WhateverIt'sCalled will perform & be worth the risk.