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Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, and You: Navigating the Future of Tech (a NeoGAF discussion thread)

thefool

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Can you explain how the 7-8% APR is sustainable?
Can you link me exactly what the offer his?
Cosmos is a proof of stake chain, which is basically a network ran by a bunch of validators who stake their tokens to be part of the validation and get rewards for it. Cosmos has an inflation-rate of 7-12%, meaning the supply will grow 7-12%. By staking your tokens, you earn a portion of those rewards. Dollar-wise that sustainability is dependable of buying pressure and/or token appreciation that is dependable of many other factors. But most of defi apr actually comes from lousy traders lol, anyone selling you on long-term sustainability of high apr%s is scamming you.

But defi isn't that. Defi is decentralized finance. Permissionless on-chain financial operations like trading futures, options, borrowing, lending, synthetic assets, stablecoins, algorithmic stable coins, etc. all executed on chain (mostly ethereum, and preferably, through chainlink oracles). You should 100% get acquainted (as in, read, study, learn, etc.) with this world as it is fostering hyperbolic innovation in how we can actually control, manage and trade financial assets.
 
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Irobot82

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Can you link me exactly what the offer his?
Cosmos is a proof of stake chain, which is basically a network ran by a bunch of validators who stake their tokens to be part of the validation and get rewards for it. Cosmos has an inflation-rate of 7-12%, meaning the supply will grow 7-12%. By staking your tokens, you earn a portion of those rewards. Dollar-wise that sustainability is dependable of buying pressure and/or token appreciation that is dependable of many other factors. But most of defi apr actually comes from lousy traders lol, anyone selling you on long-term sustainability of high apr%s is scamming you.

But defi isn't that. Defi is decentralized finance. Permissionless on-chain financial operations like trading futures, options, borrowing, lending, synthetic assets, stablecoins, algorithmic stable coins, etc. all executed on chain (mostly ethereum, and preferably, through chainlink oracles). You should 100% get acquainted (as in, read, study, learn, etc.) with this world as it is fostering hyperbolic innovation in how we can actually control, manage and trade financial assets.
Sorry on Coinbase and even my Exodus wallet i can stake Algorange and ATOMS (COSMOS) and year coins back for staking them.
https://www.exodus.io/blog/cosmos-staking/
 

thefool

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Sorry on Coinbase and even my Exodus wallet i can stake Algorange and ATOMS (COSMOS) and year coins back for staking them.
https://www.exodus.io/blog/cosmos-staking/
Ok, in the case you linked it's what I described in the first paragraph. You'll get 8% of cosmos rewards because that's the inflation rate of the network (probably a bit higher and the validators split the difference with you). But the cosmos token can depreciate 50% of its value, which then won't make that additional 8% worth a lot, does it?
This has nothing to do with defi btw. I wouldn't call it a scam either tho.
 
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Irobot82

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Ok, in the case you linked it's what I described in the first paragraph. You'll get 8% of cosmos rewards because that's the inflation rate of the network (probably a bit higher and the validators split the difference with you). But the cosmos token can depreciate 50% of its value, which then won't make that additional 8% worth a lot, does it?
This has nothing to do with defi btw. I wouldn't call it a scam either tho.
Ok so I will make 8% APR but if I go in now and the coin is at $5 and some shit goes down and it drops to $2 it doesn't matter what the APR is because my money has been more than halved.
 
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hariseldon

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To be 100% clear, having been in this space for many years, I wouldn’t touch it with a 20 foot pole.
 

cryptoadam

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FOMO is a bad thing right now. Dumb money needs to stay out for another year.

I think we will see ups and downs for the next year before peak and crash.

What I am waiting on is the ALTS to go on a FOMO run. BTC will hit 50K within the next 30-60 days though. Question is will it retrace into the 30's before it runs to 50K.
 
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Belmonte

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FOMO is a bad thing right now. Dumb money needs to stay out for another year.

I think we will see ups and downs for the next year before peak and crash.

What I am waiting on is the ALTS to go on a FOMO run. BTC will hit 50K within the next 30-60 days though. Question is will it retrace into the 30's before it runs to 50K.

I agree that FOMO right now would cut bitcoin's potential in the long run. But if you are right and BTC hit 50K in the next 60 days, I think FOMO will be inevitable. Even more with all the money printing.
 
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M. Crassus

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For those new to crypto and wanting to invest in a balanced way, there are now crypto index funds available. I'd strongly recommend those over putting together your own portfolio. There's an index called BCP that contains 1/3 Bitcoin, 1/3 Ether and 1/3 promising DeFi projects. See here: https://pools.piedao.org/#/pie/0xe4f726adc8e89c6a6017f01eada77865db22da14

And yes, it's still a good time to get in. ETH has not even broken its all time high yet. The bull run will last through 2021 imo.
 
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hariseldon

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Just a friendly word of advice for anyone new to crypto. People will lie to you. They will shill absolute shit and tell you it's the safest option. People will rip you off. Your first time in crypto you will lose money. You will be scammed. You will be like the guy in my office who lost a grand in a scam back in the run to 20k. You'll click referral links that earn some arsehole a load of money. You'll see that tweet saying that if you send 1ETH to a smart contract you'll get 2ETH back. You'll mistype the recipient address when transferring crypto between wallets and lose a chunk of crypto. You'll buy some shitty ICO that never makes a profit. You'll buy something shilled on Twitter that sees a brief spike before said twitter arsehole who pre-bought a shedload of it dumps his stack and crashes the price.

You'll come out of the end of the market cycle wiser, knowing what to avoid, and during the bear market you'll quietly build up your holdings. Then the bull market will rip again and you'll sit on your pile of bitcoin and ignore the scams. You'll come out a winner. Good luck.
 

Vier

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Ascend

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To be 100% clear, having been in this space for many years, I wouldn’t touch it with a 20 foot pole.
I'm curious to hear what turned you off.

Crypto is great if you know what you are doing, and if you understand market cycles. The best time to buy is gone. Right now is the time to start taking some profits. We never know where the top is, so, taking profits here and there is a good idea. I'm not saying this is the top, but wave 3 seems to have completed, and we're in the process of starting to form a wave 4 correction.

I still have all my ETH. And I bought SNX when it was still HAV. I put in a mere $50 which is now worth over $1000. I also invested in some that have gone bust, like WIZ. But ultimately, I'm still up.
 

hariseldon

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I'm curious to hear what turned you off.

Crypto is great if you know what you are doing, and if you understand market cycles. The best time to buy is gone. Right now is the time to start taking some profits. We never know where the top is, so, taking profits here and there is a good idea. I'm not saying this is the top, but wave 3 seems to have completed, and we're in the process of starting to form a wave 4 correction.

I still have all my ETH. And I bought SNX when it was still HAV. I put in a mere $50 which is now worth over $1000. I also invested in some that have gone bust, like WIZ. But ultimately, I'm still up.

In part spider senses. Being a little more serious, in general POS is bad because it rewards holding rather than verifying transactions. That effectively creates bag-holders. Now the intent could be to discourage people from pumping and dumping as they do with so many shitcoins, but the thing is it doesn't work. People will still dump a coin when the price goes south. The problem is if people are having to hold their coins in staking wallets (usually not on exchanges) it means they can't move quickly if the market goes against them. It puts the whales at an advantage because they can dump their coins and people have less chance to get out before it crashes and burns.

Secondly, good crypto doesn't build in a fucktonne of inflation. I do not like to hold crypto that isn't BTC for any length of time anyway - though if ETH and LTC are trending up vs BTC I'll usually happily punt some in that direction. However, inflation is a huge turn-off that makes me even more wary than normal. If a shitload of coins are being created all the time, if there's rewards of coin y for holding coin x, all these things have historically crashed and burned and I see no reason why that should suddenly and magically change. Often these sorts of schemes are simply exit scams and honestly I don't have any interest in being involved in those. Going back to an earlier post - someone correctly pointed out that yeah you might get 8% interest, but if the price drops 50% then it's no good to you. Profit comes from price movement, not staking, as price movement is more rapid than any staking income can be (and if the staking income is high enough that this is not the case [and I've seen coins promise 1000% returns which are now worthless] then it's a scam).

Re the latter part of your post - it's good that you were lucky but with shitcoins it's a casino. Sure you might get lucky, but it's throwing chips on a roulette wheel and hoping for the best. Crypto is a risky investment vs shares and currency trading, so I prefer to trend towards lower-risk crypto.
 
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Bunker Hosted

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Two main things I have to add:
- The word delisting has been thrown around a lot lately, in regards to XRP. If it was delisted, you wouldn't be able to hold your coins on the exchange still. They are HALTING all trading pairs, not delisting. When the issues with the SEC get cleared up, the trading will resume again. With that being said, XRP is a shit coin but that doesn't mean you couldn't make money off it

- The other is in regards to DeFi and unsustainable APY's. Remember that if you are putting your coins into some DeFi protocol that is promising obscured annual return rates, you better have done your research and understand HOW they are actually pulling in this yield. Regardless, it generally ends in you needing to buy some Shitcoin to pool with your non-shit coin which is suspect.

If you understand the risk, and think the way they are pulling in decent APY then maybe it is worth putting your money into. If you are more hesitant, you can use something like BlockFi where you can get 6%~ APY on your bitcoin, 5%~ APY on ETH. Shit, you can even get 9%~ APY on USDT. Though its a centralized party with KYC requirements, beats getting the rug pulled from underneath you.

DYOR = Do Your Own Research
 
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Ascend

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In part spider senses. Being a little more serious, in general POS is bad because it rewards holding rather than verifying transactions. That effectively creates bag-holders. Now the intent could be to discourage people from pumping and dumping as they do with so many shitcoins, but the thing is it doesn't work. People will still dump a coin when the price goes south. The problem is if people are having to hold their coins in staking wallets (usually not on exchanges) it means they can't move quickly if the market goes against them. It puts the whales at an advantage because they can dump their coins and people have less chance to get out before it crashes and burns.
So... Does that mean you prefer PoW coins that are ASIC resistant, like ETH?
Ultimately, nothing can ever be fully balanced. Some people will always have bigger bags than others, simply because some people have better money/risk management than others, meaning, they will grow and keep growing, while others will stay in the same place or lose money.

Secondly, good crypto doesn't build in a fucktonne of inflation. I do not like to hold crypto that isn't BTC for any length of time anyway - though if ETH and LTC are trending up vs BTC I'll usually happily punt some in that direction. However, inflation is a huge turn-off that makes me even more wary than normal. If a shitload of coins are being created all the time, if there's rewards of coin y for holding coin x, all these things have historically crashed and burned and I see no reason why that should suddenly and magically change. Often these sorts of schemes are simply exit scams and honestly I don't have any interest in being involved in those. Going back to an earlier post - someone correctly pointed out that yeah you might get 8% interest, but if the price drops 50% then it's no good to you. Profit comes from price movement, not staking, as price movement is more rapid than any staking income can be (and if the staking income is high enough that this is not the case [and I've seen coins promise 1000% returns which are now worthless] then it's a scam).
Well... You're not incorrect. For one, I staked my XRP for a fixed term higher APY for 3 months. When XRP reached 60 cents, I wanted to sell, because I knew it was overinflated, but couldn't. Then, the news came out of XRP's conflict with the SEC, and it dropped back to exactly where I bought it. Unfortunate? Yes. Lesson learned: Always use a flexible term if available.
It was also a relatively small part of my portfolio. Again, risk management.

Additionally, one has to decide for oneself what one wants to do. If you're investing, or if you're trading, are two completely different things. You can gain a lot more by trading, but the risk is also higher. If you're smart with your investments, you can dollar cost average during bear markets in the top 50 coins, and you'll pretty much be fine.

Re the latter part of your post - it's good that you were lucky but with shitcoins it's a casino. Sure you might get lucky, but it's throwing chips on a roulette wheel and hoping for the best. Crypto is a risky investment vs shares and currency trading, so I prefer to trend towards lower-risk crypto.
Honestly, I don't consider it luck. Havven was one of the first DeFi tokens. When I read the white paper it looked like a great idea and project. Could it have been a scam? Sure. That's why I only invested $50 in it and not $1000. I wouldn't miss that money if the project shut down.
WIZ on the other hand, it was supposed to be a broker, sort of like eToro, but focused on crypto. Ultimately the project stalled, got into legal issues and even then, I got to convert all my WIZ back to ETH, so, it's not a total loss.

All investments have risk. The thing is, picking random cheap coins is stupid. It's always important to read the white paper and see if it offers something unique in the space. There are indeed many scams and clones out there that offer nothing.

I'm thinking in investing in Solana right now, with a small amount. It's the only time-based PoS blockchain out there.

Two main things I have to add:
- The word delisting has been thrown around a lot lately, in regards to XRP. If it was delisted, you wouldn't be able to hold your coins on the exchange still. They are HALTING all trading pairs, not delisting. When the issues with the SEC get cleared up, the trading will resume again. With that being said, XRP is a shit coin but that doesn't mean you couldn't make money off it
I fully agree. And people forget that there's a world outside the US. Things are quite normal for XRP (outside of the price) everywhere else.
I honestly don't base my decisions on news. I look at price charts and that's it. I knew it was the time to sell XRP based on the chart, before the news came out. Not saying it's infallible, but this time, it worked, except for the fact that I was locked in for a higher APY lol. I expected this run to come later and for the term period to end just before I would have to sell. Oh well. I'll simply hold it and sell it when it rises again. If it dies, it's fine with me too. It's a mere 2% of my total investments.

- The other is in regards to DeFi and unsustainable APY's. Remember that if you are putting your coins into some DeFi protocol that is promising obscured annual return rates, you better have done your research and understand HOW they are actually pulling in this yield. Regardless, it generally ends in you needing to buy some Shitcoin to pool with your non-shit coin which is suspect.
They generally make money with the staked coin. The money you use to buy their coin will go to other investments, making the money grow before they have to return the coin/tokens to you. It's basically the same thing that banks do with fiat when they give you a higher interest on a fixed term deposit. But because different blockchains cannot work with each other (yet), they have to do create a separate token to differentiate themselves from other platforms or the main blockchain.
 
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hariseldon

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Ascend Ascend - I'll do this point by point as a quote will get messy as fuck. Numbers correspond to each quote reply.

1. I prefer PoW in general - I consider it vital to have a big enough amount of hashing power dedicated to the coin to avoid 51% attacks. I've gambled on a few where there's not much cost to me, for instance mining $IPBC (now $TUBE) when it first came out and making a good few hundred quid on some basic GPU mining, and these speculative mines can be useful so long as you know when to dump, but generally I want a fucktonne of hashing power backing the crypto I hold. That means bitcoin. ETH has some concerns for me, being a bit more centralised than I like, but it's old enough and established enough that I'm happy to work with it for a medium-term investment. Not sure what your point is about some people having bigger bags due to better money management. The whales are usually people who are already rich before crypto, and those whales manipulate the markets. This is harder to do with Bitcoin - you have to be a much bigger whale - but is still done at various smaller levels on exchanges for small movements (eg the magic disappearing massive buywalls/sellwalls).

2. Glad you didn't lose too much - it's an avoidable loss that illustrates my point however. On your second point - not sure where you're going with it. Yes everyone can do what they like, but we're not in a point in the market cycle where it's a good idea to go buy bits of the top 50 so advising people (mostly newbies - this isn't a crypto forum) to do so is a little irresponsible and thus not something I'm willing to do. I do however agree that when Bitcoin is quiet and out of the news that's when you build your bags, using whatever strategy you've chosen, if a long play investment is your goal. Trading is of course a different animal and allows use of more shitcoins if you're going with short term trades, though I absolutely do not recommend putting large amounts into the trading fund.

3. Everyone considers it luck when they lose and skill when they win. I have learned to accept that my early losses were due to being too naive, they were due to a lack of skill. The later gains where I made decent money were due to learning a lot about the market and learning to avoid things that were overly luck-based. You mention risk management and I consider that key. As you note - £50 into a casino punt isn't the end of the world (assuming you can afford it) in the way that say £1k might hurt. The problem is that one has to be responsible with messaging. People reading this (don't forget most lurk) might see a project get shilled and put money in and lose that money. I don't want to be responsible for that. More to the point, there's endless shilling of shit projects. Hell, everyone shills their bags because naturally they want more buyers so the price goes up. Ultimately the big point here is nobody should trust anyone in crypto - it's unregulated and that's great if you know what you're doing, you can make good money, but for newbies it's a fucking meat grinder. There are people in this thread shilling shit, someone has to be the voice of "hey be careful with that shit" and I'm that guy.

For me - I don't need to read a white paper in detail. I just need to know what the inflation is likely to be, whether it's POS or POW or something exotic, and whether those involved have created other coins that have gone shit-shaped. I don't give a shit what the coin is used for, I don't care whether it's going to solve world hunger or any other ridiculous claim. None of these coins ever go on to actually do what they claim, so that's an irrelevance. My investments are based on how the coin works on the marketplace and the chart patterns, nothing more, nothing less.
 
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EviLore

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Crypto goes through boom-bust cycles. After a big bull run from BTC finishes, people will shift into altcoins with some of their BTC gains, then you’ll see a pullback where the people who stayed in altcoins are hit the hardest as the altcoin money all shifts back to btc and fiat. BTC pulls back from there but has the most long term holders.

You can see it right now with ETH continuing to gain as BTC’s run begins to cool. Don’t get burned holding altcoins at the wrong time, or by jumping in too late in the cycle generally. The bull runs end, typically in dramatic fashion.
 

hariseldon

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Crypto goes through boom-bust cycles. After a big bull run from BTC finishes, people will shift into altcoins with some of their BTC gains, then you’ll see a pullback where the people who stayed in altcoins are hit the hardest as the altcoin money all shifts back to btc and fiat. BTC pulls back from there but has the most long term holders.

You can see it right now with ETH continuing to gain as BTC’s run begins to cool. Don’t get burned holding altcoins at the wrong time, or by jumping in too late in the cycle generally. The bull runs end, typically in dramatic fashion.

Yep - the blow-off top is usually spectacular to watch. The 20k top was particularly impressive. It's worth being aware that us mortals will NOT time the top and bottom perfectly and that when the top happens exchanges will buckle under the pressure and you won't be able to get your sell order in - that's something everyone should plan around.
 

n0razi

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I've been trying to maintain a "conservative" 10%/90% crypto/stocks ratio but this recent bull run has made it more like 50/50 lol... do I leave as is or cash out some BTC and put it in stocks to balance out again?
 
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Bunker Hosted

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I've been trying to maintain a "conservative" 10%/90% crypto/stocks ratio but this recent bull run has made it more like 50/50 lol... do I leave as is or cash out some BTC and put it in stocks to balance out again?
That depends on how much risk you want to take on, just remember that stocks are inflatable like fiat. In the long term, I personally believe Bitcoin/Crypto will outpace majority of stocks and indexes
 
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Ascend

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Ascend Ascend - I'll do this point by point as a quote will get messy as fuck. Numbers correspond to each quote reply.

1. I prefer PoW in general - I consider it vital to have a big enough amount of hashing power dedicated to the coin to avoid 51% attacks. I've gambled on a few where there's not much cost to me, for instance mining $IPBC (now $TUBE) when it first came out and making a good few hundred quid on some basic GPU mining, and these speculative mines can be useful so long as you know when to dump, but generally I want a fucktonne of hashing power backing the crypto I hold. That means bitcoin. ETH has some concerns for me, being a bit more centralised than I like, but it's old enough and established enough that I'm happy to work with it for a medium-term investment. Not sure what your point is about some people having bigger bags due to better money management. The whales are usually people who are already rich before crypto, and those whales manipulate the markets. This is harder to do with Bitcoin - you have to be a much bigger whale - but is still done at various smaller levels on exchanges for small movements (eg the magic disappearing massive buywalls/sellwalls).

2. Glad you didn't lose too much - it's an avoidable loss that illustrates my point however. On your second point - not sure where you're going with it. Yes everyone can do what they like, but we're not in a point in the market cycle where it's a good idea to go buy bits of the top 50 so advising people (mostly newbies - this isn't a crypto forum) to do so is a little irresponsible and thus not something I'm willing to do. I do however agree that when Bitcoin is quiet and out of the news that's when you build your bags, using whatever strategy you've chosen, if a long play investment is your goal. Trading is of course a different animal and allows use of more shitcoins if you're going with short term trades, though I absolutely do not recommend putting large amounts into the trading fund.

3. Everyone considers it luck when they lose and skill when they win. I have learned to accept that my early losses were due to being too naive, they were due to a lack of skill. The later gains where I made decent money were due to learning a lot about the market and learning to avoid things that were overly luck-based. You mention risk management and I consider that key. As you note - £50 into a casino punt isn't the end of the world (assuming you can afford it) in the way that say £1k might hurt. The problem is that one has to be responsible with messaging. People reading this (don't forget most lurk) might see a project get shilled and put money in and lose that money. I don't want to be responsible for that. More to the point, there's endless shilling of shit projects. Hell, everyone shills their bags because naturally they want more buyers so the price goes up. Ultimately the big point here is nobody should trust anyone in crypto - it's unregulated and that's great if you know what you're doing, you can make good money, but for newbies it's a fucking meat grinder. There are people in this thread shilling shit, someone has to be the voice of "hey be careful with that shit" and I'm that guy.

For me - I don't need to read a white paper in detail. I just need to know what the inflation is likely to be, whether it's POS or POW or something exotic, and whether those involved have created other coins that have gone shit-shaped. I don't give a shit what the coin is used for, I don't care whether it's going to solve world hunger or any other ridiculous claim. None of these coins ever go on to actually do what they claim, so that's an irrelevance. My investments are based on how the coin works on the marketplace and the chart patterns, nothing more, nothing less.
I mostly agree. I do disagree about coins not not ever doing what they were set out to do. Many of them have done it. But even then, those are a very small percentage of the ones that were scams, so I do understand your sentiment.

Also, whales are present in every market, including the traditional stock market. Sure, it's harder there because of the mass amount of money compared to crypto. So Crypto is pushed around easier. But that's exactly what creates the bigger opportunities, but also the higher risk.

Yep - the blow-off top is usually spectacular to watch. The 20k top was particularly impressive. It's worth being aware that us mortals will NOT time the top and bottom perfectly and that when the top happens exchanges will buckle under the pressure and you won't be able to get your sell order in - that's something everyone should plan around.
Very true. This will be the first bull market where there are many DEXs around. We'll see how they hold up near the top. Gas fees on ETH will go through the roof most likely, but maybe that will be worth it.

Yep - the blow-off top is usually spectacular to watch. The 20k top was particularly impressive. It's worth being aware that us mortals will NOT time the top and bottom perfectly and that when the top happens exchanges will buckle under the pressure and you won't be able to get your sell order in - that's something everyone should plan around.
There's this thing called the pi-cycle. When there's a cross, historically speaking, it has been the top. But obviously if everyone finds out about it, it will no longer work, most likely.

I've been trying to maintain a "conservative" 10%/90% crypto/stocks ratio but this recent bull run has made it more like 50/50 lol... do I leave as is or cash out some BTC and put it in stocks to balance out again?
This is not financial advise, but what I would do right now in your situation, is sell half the crypto you have and leave the other half in play. If it drops you've taken some profit, and if it rises, you're still in the race.

For what it's worth, I don't think we'll ever see BTC below 10K again.
 
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cryptoadam

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I agree that FOMO right now would cut bitcoin's potential in the long run. But if you are right and BTC hit 50K in the next 60 days, I think FOMO will be inevitable. Even more with all the money printing.

Getting close to 50K. But I think there is going to be a big retrace at any moment.
 
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Belmonte

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Getting close to 50K. But I think there is going to be a big retrace at any moment.

Yeah, bitcoin is on its way of your prediction. Very possible. The retrace is a worry for me too, and I'm not sure where should I put my stop loss. The huge bear trap from days ago got me, even thought I had my stop very low.
 
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cryptoadam

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Yeah, bitcoin is on its way of your prediction. Very possible. The retrace is a worry for me too, and I'm not sure where should I put my stop loss. The huge bear trap from days ago got me, even thought I had my stop very low.

and we broke 50K. If we are going by CAD of course since I am canadian. We might be in the parabolic growth right now not sure how much longer it can keep growing. I was looking at a peak in Nov/Dec 2021 so I think we will see a drop at any time and then a continued slow increase, but maybe the timeline has moved up.

I have made 50% gains in the last week after months of floundering around. Only thing I am kicking myself for not putting down more money a month or so ago LOL. Story of crypto you always regret what you didn't do in the past.

Probably going to kick myself for not taking profits, but if I take profits then I will kick myself when BTC goes up another 50% LOL.
 

Ascend

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and we broke 50K. If we are going by CAD of course since I am canadian. We might be in the parabolic growth right now not sure how much longer it can keep growing. I was looking at a peak in Nov/Dec 2021 so I think we will see a drop at any time and then a continued slow increase, but maybe the timeline has moved up.

I have made 50% gains in the last week after months of floundering around. Only thing I am kicking myself for not putting down more money a month or so ago LOL. Story of crypto you always regret what you didn't do in the past.

Probably going to kick myself for not taking profits, but if I take profits then I will kick myself when BTC goes up another 50% LOL.
That's generally how it goes. But you simply have to accept that you will never really get the perfectly time the top and the bottoms. If you're worried, try taking at least some profits along the way up, and dollar cost average on the way down. Or use this as a reference;



Thinking of buying some ALGO or LINK but worried about a possible retrace in the market soon
I also expect a retrace soon, but we don't know when that 'soon' is. If LINK's daily close is above 15.5, it's likely a good entry at this point. Link has not broken its all time high of August last year, and it seems to be in an uptrend, with some huge bullish hammer candles on both the weekly and the daily charts. That is, with the USD (or stable coins) as the pair.

LINK vs BTC is another story. To me it seems that when BTC starts dumping, LINK will either stay stable or pump instead. But we'll see.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice, just what I see in the charts, and is my opinion only.
 
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SatansReverence

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I keep checking prices after half a day or so thinking it's gotta have burst by now but it's still up every single time. Nearly doubled my money.

I'm half thinking this is the one so to speak. It's been 2 years since the last big bubble. We could be on the way to the 10x or more ATH.
 
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Irobot82

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I keep checking prices after half a day or so thinking it's gotta have burst by now but it's still up every single time. Nearly doubled my money.

I'm half thinking this is the one so to speak. It's been 2 years since the last big bubble. We could be on the way to the 10x or more ATH.
I keep thinking, wow maybe PlanB is correct. Stock2Flow model!
 

DadEggs

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laymen and top analysts have been calling for a correction since before 18k usd and yet time and time again they are wrong. we all know this doesnt go up forever and a crash is imminent but theres no sense trying to predict/fear it. bitcoin (crypto) is in price discovery and theres certainly no way to look for patterns or correlations. every time someone tries to zig bitcoin zags. of course if youre truly playing for short term gains then youre just setting limits and praying daily. as a long term hodlr I've already come to terms with the fact that my portfolios gains will most likely crash down to a btc floor of 15-25k. and thats okay because I have faith in that next cycle.

a correction will just mean its time to stack sats

I think the most sensible expectation we can have any amount of certainty in is the fact that institutions massively bought in (and still are) between the 10-25k range and they're not just going to let the market crash nearly as easily as last time. theyll be scooping up every sell order from here to kingdom come.



If i'm gonna armchair speculate with my layman experience I'd say we are around the thrill section right now.
 
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Ascend

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On the largest exchanges, margins are about 75% longs, 25% shorts... It's in the interest of the exchanges to drop the price to liquidate the longs. Just FYI.
 

Ascend

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So... currently BTC is climbing up to 41,000... Who thinks we've reached cycle peak?
I see no sign yet.

Current daily candle is an indecision candle. Peaks rarely happen with indecision candles. Even if we drop to 36k by Sunday, that would be an indecision candle on the weekly.
On the hourly and 4-hourly chart, things don't look parabolic, nor are their any signs of a top. Structurally, the price looks the same as when we reached 35K. We then dropped to 28K, then pumped to 40K. If a similar thing happens now, we drop to 35k, then pump higher again. If that happens, expect us to reach close to 70k.

Is this infallible? Definitely not. Are you comfortable with exiting at 15% lower value than where we're at now? If your answer is no, you should be taking at least some profits.
 
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prag16

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I thought crypto was crap, and probably still do, but bought some a month ago on a whim after a larger than expected annual bonus as stated in this thread. I've more than doubled my money. I'm heavily tempted to sell half so that I'm playing with house money, but I also don't want to stunt my upside if this mania is going to continue for a while longer..
 
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DadEggs

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I thought crypto was crap, and probably still do, but bought some a month ago on a whim after a larger than expected annual bonus as stated in this thread. I've more than doubled my money. I'm heavily tempted to sell half so that I'm playing with house money, but I also don't want to stunt my upside if this mania is going to continue for a while longer..
as much as everyone is expecting a large correction, it seems everyone on these boards is expecting the bull run to continue a little while longer.

but we're just armchair enthusiasts so heed what your read here and everywhere else
 
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Bunker Hosted

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as much as everyone is expecting a large correction, it seems everyone on these boards is expecting the bull run to continue a little while longer.

but we're just armchair enthusiasts so heed what your read here and everywhere else
Just remember that the bull run will continue, regardless of big corrections. We already seen a 17% daily drop last week, and it was eaten up FAST. Sometimes it won't be as fast, other times it will be even faster.

Previous bull runs included MANY big corrections, that's why trading this market is so challenging. Dollar cost averaging will likely outpace trying to time the market.
 

cryptoadam

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That's generally how it goes. But you simply have to accept that you will never really get the perfectly time the top and the bottoms. If you're worried, try taking at least some profits along the way up, and dollar cost average on the way down. Or use this as a reference;




I also expect a retrace soon, but we don't know when that 'soon' is. If LINK's daily close is above 15.5, it's likely a good entry at this point. Link has not broken its all time high of August last year, and it seems to be in an uptrend, with some huge bullish hammer candles on both the weekly and the daily charts. That is, with the USD (or stable coins) as the pair.

LINK vs BTC is another story. To me it seems that when BTC starts dumping, LINK will either stay stable or pump instead. But we'll see.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice, just what I see in the charts, and is my opinion only.

Yes if only we could all have 20/20 hindsight to know when the peaks and lows are LOL.

I don't have much in so I am just going to ride it out. My plan is to go till next Nov/December and sell out then because I am predicting a big crash like the 2017 crash. Then probably get back in a year later and hopefully ride out big gains over the next 3 years.

You can just feel it in the market there is a drop coming but FOMO don't want to sell half my stack and lose out on it doubling again.
 
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RoboEight

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Just wondering if anyone has used Switchere to purchase digital currency? I'm looking to buy some but was wondering if anyone has had any experiences with them and if they're safe, so far everything I've read is positive but I just want to be sure.