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Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, and You: Navigating the Future of Tech (a NeoGAF discussion thread)

longdi

Ni hao ma, fellow kids?
Jun 7, 2004
7,360
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Another question, i hear bitcoin is terrible at what it is supposed to solve, quick transfer between 2 parties without an intermediary.

Will this get improved within btc network or you need a whole new code, aka btc2? If later, tech gets cheaper and faster, but it is a chore to keep upgrading your digital coins.
 

hariseldon

Gold Member
Aug 22, 2018
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I said when this bear started that it looked like 2/3 year's of pain. Last time BTC dropped like this it took about 3 years for it to work its way back up and then hit the 20k bull run.


I just think that the pain is far from over and at this point there can still be more drops. If someone would of bought a few days ago after going from 6K to 5K they still would of lost money today. Way too much risk, but my twitter is full of shills saying the same shit they say every time there is a drop LOL.


I really think all these scam ICO's fucked things up. The way I see it scammers just added block chain and a white paper to some tech project and got people to send them free ETH, which they then sold to BTC. This to me is the main reason why BTC went so crazy. ICO's with free ETH paying any price to get BTC to sell into cash to run to the bank. Once the scam ICO's started going away the market collapsed on itself because there weren't people willing to pay anything for BTC since it would cost actual money, not free money people gave away.
I'd agree this will be a pretty nasty bear, likely akin to that post the 1k bull run. That said, anyone accumulating slowly during that bear market (and that's what bear markets are for) will have done very nicely out of the late 2017 bull. I think the same approach will work again, putting a small amount in each month that you won't miss, patiently sitting on it and waiting. I played the high-leverage game and won some, lost some, but honestly don't think it's the right play for me, so this method works for me.

The scam ICOs were absolute poison. In terms of price impact - don't forget you can track transactions quite easily on the ETH blockchain and most of the ICOs, even the shittier ones, kept hold of their ETH for quite a while, though any that haven't dumped yet have been very irresponsible. Now if they sold to BTC that would of course push the price of BTC up and ETH down (and one can reasonably make a case that this may be what kept us above the 6k line for so long). Once they have BTC they then become like any other BTC investor - likely panic-selling when the price goes down and in some cases panic-buying when it goes up (never underestimate the power of FOMO). Don't forget, while they think ETH is going to go up, they're holding that ETH. Same goes for BTC. I would agree that scammy ICOs did a lot of harm but I think their price effect was later in the cycle. I think Tether issues are probably a bigger factor here.


longdi longdi - Bitcoin does a fantastic job of solving the problem of sending a large amount of money. Send £10k for a £5 fee in half an hour? Yes please. I would agree that for smaller amounts it's not so useful. That said, the Lightning network being overlaid on top of the BTC blockchain solves much of that, and no you don't need to upgrade your coins for that. You'll want to upgrade your wallet software, as you do for any software, but that also takes in security improvements etc (and so far BTC has proven to be ridiculously secure). That said, if you have a lot of different shitcoins it can be a problem, especially tracking forks and things like tokens coming off the ETH ERC20 standard to go onto their own separate blockchain to become a real coin. Exchanges offer some convenience in this regard, but of course storing money on exchanges carries its own level of risk - I'm cautious about what I put on them.
 

hunterjess08

Member
Oct 16, 2018
53
11
150
Great idea for a thread. I feel like there's a lot of misinformation out there, and while Reddit is a decent resource, I fear that half of the posts there are shilling their favorite shitcoin, hoping to make it jump 200% in value.
Not only that, people over there are also sometimes not THAT helpful. You ask something about bitcoin and other coins worth discussing and they either troll you or ignore you. Ugh.
Anyway, I think bitcoin is in a bit of struggle these past few months because of the continuous dip in the price. I mean, I'm sure it will recover because this isn't the last time this happened, but waiting for it to change back up again is like hoping immortality will happen, which is highly unlikely.
 

JimmyJones

Banned
Mar 19, 2015
1,866
2,065
650
I bought like £20 worth if bitcoin about 4-5 years ago. It went up to about 200 odds and is now sitting around 90 something I believe.
 

cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
23,354
48,908
1,160
I wonder if the MT GOX whale sold more coins like last time. That tanked the price too.

Anyways anyone looking to get into BTC know its a big risk and avoid taking advice from anyone on Twitter or Youtube. I have followed and watched for a year and these guys don't know anything more than you and I. And they will always spin it positive because they need someone to take their bags off of them.
 

hariseldon

Gold Member
Aug 22, 2018
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I wonder if the MT GOX whale sold more coins like last time. That tanked the price too.

Anyways anyone looking to get into BTC know its a big risk and avoid taking advice from anyone on Twitter or Youtube. I have followed and watched for a year and these guys don't know anything more than you and I. And they will always spin it positive because they need someone to take their bags off of them.
https://twitter.com/DumpMt is tracking that for you.
 

hariseldon

Gold Member
Aug 22, 2018
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BTC - We had an Adam and Eve bottom, which succeeds 60% of the time, but I suspect this one is going to fail. We've just rejected at 4300 for the second time (previously last night at 9pm GMT), both times with decent volume indicating strong selling pressure. I'd say there's a decent chance we'll head back down to 4000-4100 area and we need that to hold, though tbh volume down there isn't huge. My feeling is that the support in that region is weaker than the resistance around 4300 which would imply that we're likely to go lower, but I don't want to speculate too much on exactly where that would go. I still think we're in for some medium-term pain.

XMR (Monero) - A good solid coin with a strong use-case (privacy) and excellent technical implementation - currently heading down to 0.0143BTC imo, a strong area of support. Buying there would be smart and would increase your BTC holdings.

BCH (bitcoin cash aka fake bitcoin) - absolute train-wreck. HEAVILY manipulated, far more than any other large-cap coin, I simply wouldn't recommend trading this right now, nor would I recommend holding it.

ETH (Ethereum) - A fantastic idea but tainted by shitcoins and the network not being able to handle large volumes of activity - smart contracts have proven to not be that useful and, much like a smartwatch, they're a solution looking for a problem. Price action is similar to bitcoin with an Adam and Eve bottom, however both look nasty on the 6H stochastic, and like bitcoin ETH was recently rejected at a level (125) with volume - in this case the 2nd pass didn't even get that high. I'd expect ETH to go down, $115 seems feasible to me, could touch $113 in a wick.
 
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CasinB

Banned
Dec 15, 2018
23
13
75
the owner of bitconnnect.com got arrested in India for $14 billion ponzi scheme using bitcoins
 

hariseldon

Gold Member
Aug 22, 2018
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the owner of bitconnnect.com got arrested in India for $14 billion ponzi scheme using bitcoins
That shit was such an obvious scam. Someone at my work fell for it to the tune of £500. I took the piss when I found out.
 

joombo

Banned
Aug 20, 2018
153
101
225
Not sure about BTC but hope altcoins still have a future. I never invested major money into btc but made a few successfull investment in ICOs. One of the tokens that I support right now is Mobilego. I'm follow MGO crypto price at http://mgo-crypto-price.com and it seems to be very promising project. It is gaining popularity at a rapid race.
 
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hariseldon

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Aug 22, 2018
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Not sure about BTC but hope altcoins still have a future. I never invested major money into btc but made a few successfull investment in ICOs. One of the tokens that I support right now is Mobilego. I'm follow MGO crypto price and it seems to be very promising project. It is gaining popularity at a rapid race.
ICOs were an absolute cancer on crypto - the vast majority were absolute out-and-out scams. While one can make money from scam-coins (see $TRX, $BCH, etc) in general a sensible person does not hold them in a long-term investment. In choosing altcoins to invest in, my criteria these days are pretty strict. First, does it have a decent use-case, and can that use-case already be filled by another coin. Second, are the economics sound? What's the inflation rate (be that through mining or stakeholding/masternodes). How good is trading volume? Third, is there a decent community? What do we know about the people and companies behind it?

Looking at your chosen coin:

- Use-case: Match-entrance fee and prize, and purchasing in-game content. My first issue here is that $DOGE would perform just as well for this. My second issue is that games companies have no incentive to use the platform when they can instead maintain their pretend money without the need for a blockchain in the old-fashioned way. There's no incentive to have a general-purpose coin that can be spent in other games economies, and indeed the potential to imbalance their economy would be bad, further the fluctuation in value of the coin creates risk for the game company which doesn't exist with their own coin at a fixed price redeemable only within their own in-game item-store.
- Economics: 70% of the coins go to those who participated in the crowd sale, and the makers keep 30%. That's a HUGE amount, which could easily be used to destabilise the economy. If they decide the thing isn't going to make money they can sell that 30% and completely crash the market. It's another ETH token - yes it's also on WAVES but fundamentally it's a token without its own blockchain. I would speculate that the extra complication they've added by having the two chains, with a smart contract for conversion, creates some considerable risk of duplicated coins, etc as well as making it more challenging for exchanges to list. On that subject, the vast majority of volume is on some very very sketchy-looking exchanges. Ethfinex is the only vaguely-respectable exchange with any real volume, while cryptopia has bugger all. If you're left holding the bag you'll have a hard time offloading it for a good price.
- Community: Bitcointalk thread is semi-active, but mostly with noobs posting very very basic questions and getting fairly terrible answers. Zero discussion on twitter, only bots posting price updates, and those annoying spam posts that list random cashtags.

Sorry but I have a feeling you've been sold a lemon.
 

cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
23,354
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I expected BTC to be at 2500 by now, it managed a nice little bump over the last few days. But I haven't lost faith I still think we are in for the holiday pain as I always felt a drop would come sometime between the 21st and the Jan 3rd. A nice holiday kick in the balls.

And ICO's were pretty much all scams. Just a way for people to get free ETH. Which was probably one of the big reasons for the huge BTC bear run. Just imagine creating fake money and having someone give you real money for your fake money. At that point you have tons of sellers with millions of ETH looking to convert to BTC.

EvilLore could of easily created a GAFcoin and had people send him ETH for it. Cost of GAFcoin for EvilLore = 0$. Sells 1000 GAFcoin for 10 ETH, with ETH being woth 1000$, thats just free money. This was what ICO's were.
 

hariseldon

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Aug 22, 2018
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cryptoadam cryptoadam my expectation was around 2950-ish, but we didn't quite hit that level. There could well be another low but I'm ok with that, just accumulating at the moment anywhere between 2k and 4k. I'm reasonably confident that this will prove to be a good choice. Agree 100% with your assessment of ICOs as free ETH, though the effect on pricing is uncertain. Some smarter guys will have cashed the ETH out at $1k into USD, depressing the price of ETH, but I don't think many did that. Likely they held on thinking the price would go up. Eventually they realised it wouldn't (likely some of those who did sell pushed the price down) and sold their bit, and the sell-off of ETH accelerated driving the price down. The tricky bit is that some would have been sold to USD and some to BTC. It could be that panic-sellers will have gone to BTC and then to USD, but I'd be surprised if they didn't just go straight to USD in the main.

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin peaked in mid-December, while ETH peaked in mid-January. That points more towards the market troubles starting before any ETH sell-off, it's possible that at this point the smarter guys realised BTC wasn't going any higher and that the market in general would come down from there, perhaps a result of a lower 2nd peak for BTC which is usually a solid indication, especially after the mania of the 20k run. I'd also add that a lot of the scamming happened during the down-run, so it's hard to link the sell-off of ICOs to the price crash.

Hmm.. I had more to say but a lot of distractions here so I'll try to pop back later with my thoughts a bit more connected.
 

cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
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cryptoadam cryptoadam my expectation was around 2950-ish, but we didn't quite hit that level. There could well be another low but I'm ok with that, just accumulating at the moment anywhere between 2k and 4k. I'm reasonably confident that this will prove to be a good choice. Agree 100% with your assessment of ICOs as free ETH, though the effect on pricing is uncertain. Some smarter guys will have cashed the ETH out at $1k into USD, depressing the price of ETH, but I don't think many did that. Likely they held on thinking the price would go up. Eventually they realised it wouldn't (likely some of those who did sell pushed the price down) and sold their bit, and the sell-off of ETH accelerated driving the price down. The tricky bit is that some would have been sold to USD and some to BTC. It could be that panic-sellers will have gone to BTC and then to USD, but I'd be surprised if they didn't just go straight to USD in the main.

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin peaked in mid-December, while ETH peaked in mid-January. That points more towards the market troubles starting before any ETH sell-off, it's possible that at this point the smarter guys realised BTC wasn't going any higher and that the market in general would come down from there, perhaps a result of a lower 2nd peak for BTC which is usually a solid indication, especially after the mania of the 20k run. I'd also add that a lot of the scamming happened during the down-run, so it's hard to link the sell-off of ICOs to the price crash.

Hmm.. I had more to say but a lot of distractions here so I'll try to pop back later with my thoughts a bit more connected.
LOL I should of bought a week ago could of made some decent coin on BTC, but I feel another drop coming. and post New Years usually sees a dip too so I think we are going down again. But hey I have been wrong before maybe the thing will stablize or even go up. Perferably I would like to see it stay between 4-5 for a while and then see steady climbs to new ATH's rather than a 6 month bull run.

As far as my ETH theory, I don't think it was the sole driver of the bubble, but a major contributing factor. FOMO was also major, manipulation was another(which is tied to ETH as well). I just see it in the background where people were able to get free ETH for nothing. I don't really think there is a correlation between price crashes or what not, but if tons of scammers are getting free ETH that they can convert to BTC and then cash I can see how that created the crazy bull run.

I actually have a good feeling that most of these ICO scammers aren't holding onto their ETH bags at 100 bucks when they were worth 1200. Those guys made out like bandits.

I would add that youtube/twitter etc.. also played a huge role. Everyone and their mother became a crypto expert shilling coins for the purposes of pump and dumping. I don't doubt most were given free coins to shill. I am sure even on GAF there were probably paid shillers. Heck on ERA they were pushing ADC (might have been on GAF too) what a shit coin.

I think the space needs to die down a bit. Right now people still remember 80% loses. I expect another year of pain at least and then if its a real market it can hopefully bounce back. But right now all the naysayers calling it tulips and a fad are being proven right.
 

hariseldon

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Aug 22, 2018
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cryptoadam cryptoadam (not quoting, just tagging, to be a bit more space-efficient) - ETH is one of the currencies along with LTC you can cash straight to USD/GBP/EUR without the need to go via BTC fairly easily, which makes the dynamics a bit different I think in that the step to BTC isn't one we can assume. Your point about manipulation is valid though - perhaps manipulation pushed ETH to 1k after BTC had already peaked and the ICOs got out there. With no buyers in the market at that point, any sell-off led to a dramatic price drop.

The price run was definitely driven by FOMO in general, but that's true of all market bubbles, even the tech bubble which appears to be bursting as we speak on the stock market. And yes you're right about twitter - some serious shilling going on there for absolute horse-shit. I've not followed youtube so much on that stuff so that's a little harder to keep up with. There are some guys on twitter posting some solid Technical Analysis which is worth following up on [I've been trying to improve my own skills in this area], but there are some absolute scammy fuckwits of the highest calibre, and that's before you get to the likes of Fake Satoshi, Roger Ver, etc, the ULTIMATE scam bastards.

For me I'm hoping for a nice long bear market to drive people to despair and selling me their coins cheap. I won't mind overpaying right now if I can get more cheaper later, because the upside will still be pretty good, the next big bull run ought to get us somewhere past 30k imo, and with where we are in the market cycle this is the best opportunity I'll have for a while. I'll wait til BBC news is talking about bitcoin or NBC is telling me how to by $shitcoin for my cue to sell up ;)
 

cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
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hariseldon hariseldon all we can say for now is we don't know anything LOL.

When you think you have the answers for BTC it changes the question.

I think we are in the first stages of this long bear market. People have long memories so they won't forget what happened, but they have short memories so once BTC starts showing strong positive growth everyone will FOMO back in.
 

OSC

Member
Jun 16, 2018
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fungibility is of utmost importance which is why I believe monero has great promise. Though governments are likely going to try to destroy that aspect or ban it, hopefully they will fail.
 

hariseldon

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Aug 22, 2018
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fungibility is of utmost importance which is why I believe monero has great promise. Though governments are likely going to try to destroy that aspect or ban it, hopefully they will fail.
I'm a big fan of XMR and have a reasonable stock of it. I personally rank it in the same ballpark as bitcoin and Ethereum in importance and consider it an essential part of any balanced portfolio.
 

Skyr

Member
Sep 4, 2013
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Only at -60% now, lets go!!!
I say will will move down again but to higher lows this time.
It will prolly take at least 6 months to a year until the next rocket will take off.
 

DadEggs

Member
May 26, 2011
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just bide your time. this is what being a hodl'r is all about! :D

my portfolio is: btc, eth, eos, xrp, and nano. content with their positions aside from nano. that block lattice should be owned way more. dealt with such bs drama last year/2017

the btc halving is slowly coming, so maybe whales are slowly reaccumulating
 
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hariseldon

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Aug 22, 2018
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I'm happy with my profits right now, I accumulated a nice chunk before the big spike to 5k, and will continue to buy any dips. I think a small dip is due soon, and it'll be an opportunity to add to my portfolio. Bought TRX at 560, it's at 594 as I type this, it's a scam coin of course but scams pump hardest and I see nice chart patterns that tell me it's got a decent chance of pumping once accumulation is done. The key goal right now is to increase my BTC value as much as possible, ready for the next pump. It won't be this year imo so I've got time to build my fund, and that's alright with me.
 

DadEggs

Member
May 26, 2011
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I'm happy with my profits right now, I accumulated a nice chunk before the big spike to 5k, and will continue to buy any dips. I think a small dip is due soon, and it'll be an opportunity to add to my portfolio. Bought TRX at 560, it's at 594 as I type this, it's a scam coin of course but scams pump hardest and I see nice chart patterns that tell me it's got a decent chance of pumping once accumulation is done. The key goal right now is to increase my BTC value as much as possible, ready for the next pump. It won't be this year imo so I've got time to build my fund, and that's alright with me.
yeah, I dont think this well see much this year aside from slow small gains. thats good enough for me. granted i thought btc bottomed out when it was in mid 6ks for awhile.
 

hariseldon

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Aug 22, 2018
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yeah, I dont think this well see much this year aside from slow small gains. thats good enough for me. granted i thought btc bottomed out when it was in mid 6ks for awhile.
For my current position I don't mind too much if we have another leg down, though in general I'd say a high clearing previous highs (ie this run to 5k) is indicative of a decent upward move. Honestly I'd like it to go nice and slow so I can build up my position! I still regret that I had 2.4BTC at one point (when it was 1k) but didn't have it when it mattered at 20k, after selling like a moron.
 

Liberty4all

Member
Nov 11, 2007
10,583
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I hold LTC. Way up almost double. I fully expect LTC to go even higher as the Halving in August approaches.

To any of my friends from /r/litecoinmarkets

Upvote the dailllllllllyyyyyy 😉
 
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DadEggs

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May 26, 2011
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btc still rising consistently. rest of the market is priiiiiiiiddddddy stagnant though unfortunately.

thankfully my btc wasnt stolen out of binance, i know dumb to keep on their exchange.....just havent made the effort to get a cold wallet

is anyone accumulating? I have like zero funds I can dump in without any sort of remorse, but ive got such an itch to increase my stacks a bit.
 

DadEggs

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May 26, 2011
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I'm deep into LTC. Wish I'd converted to BTC a few weeks ago when 55 LTC bought 1 BTC.
well with LTC halving in august, you might see a run up at least

Just buying a bit of BTC every couple of weeks. Super new to crypto.
im jealous - the money i do have to put in, i cant justify it as I have other family priorities that have been itching and need scratching. but i REALLY want to..... what my wife doesnt know she wont miss right?
 
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crowbrow

Banned
Feb 28, 2019
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I have most of my investments in altcoins right now, maybe I should go back to btc. Holding tezos for long term too
 

DadEggs

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hopefully we dont see a drastic correction. market went haywire these last few days/weeks. I imagine were gonna see some sideways movement for a bit now.

I bit the bullet and increased my stacks some.
 
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Skyr

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Sep 4, 2013
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I still think we are in for a correction to the low 6k area soon. What do you guys think?
 

DadEggs

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I still think we are in for a correction to the low 6k area soon. What do you guys think?
I agree. was anticipating that during the correction last week.

Vaneck and bitwise ETF decisions delayed again today. next due date is August 19th. I dont know how many times they can delay, but i think theyll delay it for the inevitable future. until the timing is right.
edit: final deadline is october 18th. cant delay past that.

im hoping for a bit of sideways movement around 5-6k for a few months, so i can build up some funds again to buy some more btc. thats the next token I want to increase my stack. I'm done with alts for now.
 
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DadEggs

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Any predictions on how Libra will go?
i mean if they can get it to catch on in 3rd world countries then sure I guess.... but who the hell wants Facebook as their bank?

also how are they going to get people to put their money IN? airdrop? sign up promotions? high interest?

I think what pisses me off the most is how there are a tons of better altcoins already out there that should be in Libras shoes.


Does anyone know whats going to happen on binance for the US customers... am I supposed to leave all my coins there and theyll allow me to transfer them all once binance US becomes available? I read that many coins wont be tradeable in US, makes me thing I should just convert them to another alt and take the losses
 
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DadEggs

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How are people feeling during this correction? Can we suspect a further drop or just some sideways llama season
 

JimmyJones

Banned
Mar 19, 2015
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My 0.018 bitcoins are currently worth $189 dollars. Will I ever make it to the millionaires club?
 

Liberty4all

Member
Nov 11, 2007
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I sold off all my LTC last month to pay for a 2 week Caribbean cruise in December and a 65 inch Sony Bravia.

At the time I felt bad but now I'm feeling way better.