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[Jackpot]

Leave.eu has more followers on Twitter than StrongerIn and VoteLeave. They are a very influential group and to say they aren't an official campaign is folly.

That's not what official means...

 

[Psychotext]

And this is how it looks like in the bigger picture

Which makes it all the more terrifying when you look at the percentages been thrown around for how much the economy is going to be impacted.

Any significant percentage drop on GDP is going to dwarf the EU contribution.

 

[mr-paul]

Then dis-credit it....that is how it works....we post...we debate...we challenge, rather than turn it in to a attack anyone who does not vote remain...

I told you my reasons for voting out, I am not going to be bullied into changing because you think my reasons are shit....if you only want remain stuff to be posted the ask a mod to rule on it

and you know what, come the result I will be one of the first ones here, congratulating remain if they win, and looking at ways to move forward, people like you wont, you will be here to attack anyone who had voted leave if we win...and it is so unnecessary.... if you don't like my opinion then fine.

I'm not saying that everything in this thread has to be pro-leave - as you said, it's good to have a healthy debate. But if you're going to be pro-leave, have the arguments to back it up, without using the most dubious sources. I think people are genuinely interested in why you're pro-brexit, because from what you said yesterday, your reasons for voting out aren't related to the EU at all. I've sensed a little bit of anti-immigration in your posts, is that a key issue for you?

And with regards to that spending graph, the 2016 Budget: Total expenditure - £772billion. Net spend on the EU - around £8.5bn. It's such a small part of our spending.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Latest poll from opinium, legwork mostly before campaign paused has remain and leave tied at 44% and the rest don't knows.

 

[Tak3n]

Latest poll from opinium, legwork mostly before campaign paused has remain and leave tied at 44% and the rest don't knows.

yeah, I think we need to see the affect of the last few days, but then can that be ignored as people may knee jerk vote remain but as the week progresses they may go back to dont know

 

[ferrasvansen]

yeah, I think we need to see the affect of the last few days, but then can that be ignored as people may knee jerk vote remain but as the week progresses they may go back to dont know

True enough, no matter what happens the result is going to be a too close to end this, narrow win for either side solves nothing and we go around in circles, sigh.

 

[Jasup]

Which makes it all the more terrifying when you look at the percentages been thrown around for how much the economy is going to be impacted.

Any significant percentage drop on GDP is going to dwarf the EU contribution.

Basically yes.
Also, the total UK's contribution to EU is a bit over 1% of the government's total budget. If that 1% is spread over all the policy areas of the that the money is supposed to go after Brexit, it'll be spread out really thin.

 

[Tak3n]

I'm not saying that everything in this thread has to be pro-leave - as you said, it's good to have a healthy debate. But if you're going to be pro-leave, have the arguments to back it up, without using the most dubious sources. I think people are genuinely interested in why you're pro-brexit, because from what you said yesterday, your reasons for voting out aren't related to the EU at all. I've sensed a little bit of anti-immigration in your posts, is that a key issue for you?

And with regards to that spending graph, the 2016 Budget: Total expenditure - £772billion. Net spend on the EU - around £8.5bn. It's such a small part of our spending.

I am oddly a little bit pro immigration, I never had or will have any issue with anyone coming, I do believe they should not be able to claim benefits, and had David Cameron secured that I would of voted to remain, the 4 year deal is worthless, as i am sure most would agree...

I am a big 'pay for yourself' kinda guy, always bought up with the 'don't take handouts' life, so that is where my no benefits line comes from....once they have paid in to the system then by all means take out..

as strange as this sounds the biggest anti-immigrant I know is a dad of one of my sons friends, who is Chinese and is vicious about people coming over, always blows my mind, but I think it is a bit of that condition like people on benefits get, where they dont want other people getting benefits

 

[phisheep]

Just over 5 days until the polls close. The real polls that is, rather than these silly opinion polls.

I don't think I can stand the tension of waiting up all Thursday night, so it'll be early to bed and pick up the excitement about 6:00 Friday.

I hope:
(a) that Remain wins,
(b) that whatever the outcome, the margin and turnout are sufficiently decisive

Don't want to have to do this all again, it is way too stressful.

 

[PJV3]

Latest poll from opinium, legwork mostly before campaign paused has remain and leave tied at 44% and the rest don't knows.

Really we had it about right, in the EU but not fully Euro'd. Now half the population possibly are gonna have it all and the other half nowt.


Compromise isn't fashionable anymore.

 

[Kabouter]

I am oddly a little bit pro immigration, I never had or will have any issue with anyone coming, I do believe they should not be able to claim benefits, and had David Cameron secured that I would of voted to remain, the 4 year deal is worthless, as i am sure most would agree...

I am a big 'pay for yourself' kinda guy, always bought up with the 'don't take handouts' life, so that is where my no benefits line comes from....once they have paid in to the system then by all means take out..

as strange as this sounds the biggest anti-immigrant I know is a dad of one of my sons friends, who is Chinese and is vicious about people coming over, always blows my mind, but I think it is a bit of that condition like people on benefits get, where they dont want other people getting benefits

Are there any stats on the average net contribution of EEA migrants to the British government budget?

 

[ferrasvansen]

Just over 5 days until the polls close. The real polls that is, rather than these silly opinion polls.

I don't thing I can stand the tension of waiting up all Thursday night, so it'll be early to bed and pick up the excitement about 6:00 Friday.

I hope:
(a) that Remain wins,
(b) that whatever the outcome, the margin and turnout are sufficiently decisive

Don't want to have to do this all again, it is way too stressful.

Yeah between the Indy referendum, last year's general election and this Brexit referendum almost all my hair has fallen out, must be the anxiety. I only hope it would end but I suspect a general election is coming in October and possibly another INDY REF next year to keep Scotland in EU, sigh.

 

[mr-paul]

I am oddly a little bit pro immigration, I never had or will have any issue with anyone coming, I do believe they should not be able to claim benefits, and had David Cameron secured that I would of voted to remain, the 4 year deal is worthless, as i am sure most would agree...

I am a big 'pay for yourself' kinda guy, always bought up with the 'don't take handouts' life, so that is where my no benefits line comes from....once they have paid in to the system then by all means take out..

as strange as this sounds the biggest anti-immigrant I know is a dad of one of my sons friends, who is Chinese and is vicious about people coming over, always blows my mind, but I think it is a bit of that condition like people on benefits get, where they dont want other people getting benefits

Apologies if I misjudged, it was just the other day when you were saying you felt that your town had 100,000 Polish people or whatever it is that made it seem a big issue for you.

Why is the four year deal worthless?

Surely once they've been here 4 years, they've been paying into the system, they've essentially become a permanent resident here, why shouldn't they be able to claim the same as someone born here?

I understand the pay for yourself mantra, but benefits are essentially there as a safety net for those in need. I think it's unfair to say someone who has been contributing to our economy for that long shouldn't have that net available to them.

 

[Maledict]

I am oddly a little bit pro immigration, I never had or will have any issue with anyone coming, I do believe they should not be able to claim benefits, and had David Cameron secured that I would of voted to remain, the 4 year deal is worthless, as i am sure most would agree...

I am a big 'pay for yourself' kinda guy, always bought up with the 'don't take handouts' life, so that is where my no benefits line comes from....once they have paid in to the system then by all means take out..

as strange as this sounds the biggest anti-immigrant I know is a dad of one of my sons friends, who is Chinese and is vicious about people coming over, always blows my mind, but I think it is a bit of that condition like people on benefits get, where they dont want other people getting benefits

If you are anti "don't take handouts" then you should be in favour of immigration, and should be campaigning to deport the white working class long term unemployed. Immigrants pay more into the treasury coffers than they take in benefits.

 

[Maledict]

Yeah between the Indy referendum, last year's general election and this Brexit referendum almost all my hair has fallen out, must be the anxiety. I only hope it would end but I suspect a general election is coming in October and possibly another INDY REF next year to keep Scotland in EU, sigh.

Westminster just won't agree to another Scottish referendum, and the EU won't deal with Scotland as a separate country no matter how bad the blood due to Brexit. Unless Scotland seceedes (which I cannot see happening due to the legal issues), there's no reason for Westminster to grant Scotland another referendum in our lifetimes.

 

[Ovek]

Westminster just won't agree to another Scottish referendum, and the EU won't deal with Scotland as a separate country no matter how bad the blood due to Brexit. Unless Scotland seceedes (which I cannot see happening due to the legal issues), there's no reason for Westminster to grant Scotland another referendum in our lifetimes.

They won't and the SNP know that, won't stop them bleating on about it though.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Westminster just won't agree to another Scottish referendum, and the EU won't deal with Scotland as a separate country no matter how bad the blood due to Brexit. Unless Scotland seceedes (which I cannot see happening due to the legal issues), there's no reason for Westminster to grant Scotland another referendum in our lifetimes.

I think if Scotland votes heavily remain and England votes to leave things will change, Boris Johnson and Co will need every mps vote to get close to enough mps for Brexit, he will dangle another referendum to get Snp to abstain. A few months is a long time in politics and can seem like a lifetime.

 

[RedSparrows]

I am so looking forward to the campaigns being over. I am for Remain, and I am sick to the back teeth of the bile coming out over this issue. It's hideous. Yes, I'm a coward for wanting it to go out of sight, out of mind, but the sooner it does...

 

[Tak3n]

Apologies if I misjudged, it was just the other day when you were saying you felt that your town had 100,000 Polish people or whatever it is that made it seem a big issue for you.

Why is the four year deal worthless?

Surely once they've been here 4 years, they've been paying into the system, they've essentially become a permanent resident here, why shouldn't they be able to claim the same as someone born here?

I understand the pay for yourself mantra, but benefits are essentially there as a safety net for those in need. I think it's unfair to say someone who has been contributing to our economy for that long shouldn't have that net available to them.

yeah, I was saying Gordon Brown promised us only 20,000 were coming, but in fact it was 100,000....not sure if you remember his famous, not many coming speech...that was what I was referring to, and had he been up front and honest I honestly believe there would not be half the hatred there is today

 

[Maledict]

I think if Scotland votes heavily remain and England votes to leave things will change, Boris Johnson and Co will need every mps vote to get close to enough mps for Brexit, he will dangle another referendum to get Snp to abstain. A few months is a long time in politics and can seem like a lifetime.

There aren't *nearly* enough Leave MPs in parliament to drive through stuff though under those circumstances, and Johnson giving Scotland another referendum would mean he'd be dead and buried as the Tory party leader. It's probable we'll have another general election under those circumstances anyways, and the SNP would campaign on independence + staying in the EU - but I just don't see Westminster giving it to them.

 

[Tak3n]

Are there any stats on the average net contribution of EEA migrants to the British government budget?

I feel like this is a Trap like the one Ed Miliband once did to David Cameron where Ed allready knew the answer!

 

[ferrasvansen]

There aren't *nearly* enough Leave MPs in parliament to drive through stuff though under those circumstances, and Johnson giving Scotland another referendum would mean he'd be dead and buried as the Tory party leader. It's probable we'll have another general election under those circumstances anyways, and the SNP would campaign on independence + staying in the EU - but I just don't see Westminster giving it to them.

I'm thinking more along the lines of after a general election, tories will select more anti EU candidates as the grass roots of the party are very pro Brexit, after that they may get close to enough, anyway hope remain wins easily and ends all this crap for a while, country needs a break from elections for a while.

 

[Tak3n]

If you are anti "don't take handouts" then you should be in favour of immigration, and should be campaigning to deport the white working class long term unemployed. Immigrants pay more into the treasury coffers than they take in benefits.

I have heard that argument many a time, but the reality is there are UK citizens and as such for all their ills we have to lump it... EU citizens are not, and I don't believe it is that unreasonable to say, put in to take out....just like our state pensions where you need 30 years stamp to claim a full one...

is it so wrong....and you will know more than me the it is working tax credits that is the bulk of benefits for EU citizens....I just dont feel they should qualify for any benefits until 5 year stamp duty

 

[Beefy]

Just over 5 days until the polls close. The real polls that is, rather than these silly opinion polls.

I don't think I can stand the tension of waiting up all Thursday night, so it'll be early to bed and pick up the excitement about 6:00 Friday.

I hope:
(a) that Remain wins,
(b) that whatever the outcome, the margin and turnout are sufficiently decisive

Don't want to have to do this all again, it is way too stressful.

You forgot (c) Tories implode and a general election is called. Labour win.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Just over 5 days until the polls close. The real polls that is, rather than these silly opinion polls.

I don't think I can stand the tension of waiting up all Thursday night, so it'll be early to bed and pick up the excitement about 6:00 Friday.

I hope:
(a) that Remain wins,
(b) that whatever the outcome, the margin and turnout are sufficiently decisive

Don't want to have to do this all again, it is way too stressful.

I'll be staying up! Booked the next day off work (learned my lesson after the Scottish Indyref). Anyone else doing an all-nighter?

I do fear we may have to do this all again Phi

 

[Tak3n]

Reuters

Implied probability of Remain vote in Britain's EU referendum falls to 65 percent: Betfair odds

The implied probability of a British vote to remain in the European Union on June 23 fell to 65 percent on Saturday, according to Betfair betting odds.

The probability of a Remain vote fell as low as 60 percent on Thursday before rising to around 67 percent on Friday.

no surprise there really, Bookies still strongly favour a remain vote

 

[ferrasvansen]

I'll be staying up! Booked the next day off work (learned my lesson after the Scottish Indyref). Anyone else doing an all-nighter?

I do fear we may have to do this all again Phi

Not sure, I have stayed up for every election since 1983 but I'm not sure I could this time, kinda burnt out.

 

[Hasney]

I'll be staying up! Booked the next day off work (learned my lesson after the Scottish Indyref). Anyone else doing an all-nighter?

I do fear we may have to do this all again Phi

Maybe.. I've got tickets to David Cross that night and working from home the day after. Depends how much I've had to drink most likely!

 

[Jimbob Smalls]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/jun/18/eu-vote-brexit-working-people-rents-wages

Sums up my thoughts earlier in the thread quite nicely.

 

[phisheep]

You forgot (c) Tories implode and a general election is called. Labour win.

I was listing my hopes, not yours.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Not sure, I have stayed up for every election since 1983 but I'm not sure I could this time, kinda burnt out.

Impressive! I usually try and stay up for GE's as it's quite exciting to watch the picture gradually form. Didn't bother staying up for the AV referendum though.

Maybe.. I've got tickets to David Cross that night and working from home the day after. Depends how much I've had to drink most likely!

Stay up and drink some more! I'm sure we can come up with some sort of drinking game for the BBC coverage.

I hope a few people on Gaf stay up and post in the thread. I'm expecting Thurs night to be very exciting if it's as close as it looks right now, with the lead for Remain / Leave possibly switching hands several times as different areas report in.

 

[Beefy]

I was listing my hopes, not yours.

I was adding mine to yours.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

I'll be staying up! Booked the next day off work (learned my lesson after the Scottish Indyref). Anyone else doing an all-nighter?

I probably shouldn't but will because of the anxiety. Its what happened with the Scottish vote last time.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Impressive! I usually try and stay up for GE's as it's quite exciting to watch the picture gradually form. Didn't bother staying up for the AV referendum though.



Stay up and drink some more! I'm sure we can come up with some sort of drinking game for the BBC coverage.

I hope a few people on Gaf stay up and post in the thread. I'm expecting Thurs night to be very exciting if it's as close as it looks right now, with the lead for Remain / Leave possibly switching hands several times as different areas report in.

I will likely stay up as usual, last Scottish Election in May I hadn't planned to but damn at about 2300 election fever caught hold of me again, best election to watch ever was 1997. I could hear the cheers in the streets around me in Glasgow as Michael Portillo and Co lost their seats, was unreal.

 

[jelly]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/jun/18/eu-vote-brexit-working-people-rents-wages

Sums up my thoughts earlier in the thread quite nicely.

I don't get it, leaving the EU isn't going to stop migration, we get loads of people from outside the EU which they don't care to control much and they will still want those jobs filled so nothing will change to make what he argues any better.

 

[Tak3n]

this is a good table, looking at peoples concern, shows economy and NHS ahead of Immigrations, but look at the top one, as a lot of broadcasters feel older generation are in it for themselves, but this would go against that sentiment

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ly-28-would-feel-the-same-if-we-a7089036.html

 

[jufonuk]

I'll be staying up! Booked the next day off work (learned my lesson after the Scottish Indyref). Anyone else doing an all-nighter?

I do fear we may have to do this all again Phi

I'm off work on Friday but working until 22:30 on the night of the vote.

all I keep hearing at work is Euro based 2016 and Brexit.

 

[phisheep]

this is a good table, looking at peoples concern, shows economy and NHS ahead of Immigrations, but look at the top one, as a lot of broadcasters feel older generation are in it for themselves, but this would go against that sentiment

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ly-28-would-feel-the-same-if-we-a7089036.html

It would be a lot more interesting if it showed how this broke down between Leave and Remain voters - I suspect the main concerns to be different on each side. But of course:

ComRes did not ask respondents how they intended to vote on Thursday, because the company believes that – on the EU referendum question – online polling is not as reliable as phone polling.

Bother, at last something I'd be able to put some sensible interpretation on and they don't ask the damn question.

 

[Undead]

I don't get it, leaving the EU isn't going to stop migration, we get loads of people from outside the EU which they don't care to control much and they will still want those jobs filled so nothing will change to make what he argues any better.

The general public do not understand that migration won't stop.
In any case it reads like a selfish article, willing to destroy all of the benefits in the first paragraph because someone gets undercut in pricing, that's business, it happens all the time and has been happening long before migrants came over from the big bad EU.

 

[Tak3n]

It would be a lot more interesting if it showed how this broke down between Leave and Remain voters - I suspect the main concerns to be different on each side. But of course:



Bother, at last something I'd be able to put some sensible interpretation on and they don't ask the damn question.

this was also in the article, it might help

 

[Tak3n]

The general public do not understand that migration won't stop.
In any case it reads like a selfish article, willing to destroy all of the benefits in the first paragraph because someone gets undercut in pricing, that's business, it happens all the time and has been happening long before migrants came over from the big bad EU.

Michael Gove was honest on question time, and it kind of went unnoticed, he expressly said immigration wont start to come down until after 2020

a Radio 5 commentator thought it was unusually frank, but for some reason main stream media did not pick up on it

 

[Undead]

Michael Gove was honest on question time, and it kind of went unnoticed, he expressly said immigration wont start to come down until after 2020

a Radio 5 commentator thought it was unusually frank, but for some reason main stream media did not pick up on it

The cynic in me would say it's because they don't want to inform people about it.

 

[phisheep]

this was also in the article, it might help

Trouble is it doesn't tell me - what I'd want to know - what matters were important to, for example, those who would be delighted to leave versus those who would be delighted to remain. Which makes it kind of meaningless.

I could guess of course (and probably guess quite closely), but that's not really what a poll is for.

 

[phisheep]

Michael Gove was honest on question time, and it kind of went unnoticed, he expressly said immigration wont start to come down until after 2020

a Radio 5 commentator thought it was unusually frank, but for some reason main stream media did not pick up on it

I do like Gove. He seems to do unusually well at not having hidden agendas, whatever his agenda is it is right there in the open.

Obviously this was a bit of a disaster in Education, where a bit of tact might have worked wonders, but he's done a lot better in Justice and now on the Leave campaign. I don't agree with everything he does, but we could do a lot worse for PM than someone this transparent. Mentioning no names of course.

 

[Tak3n]

Ken Clarke slams both sides for exaggerated claims (more angry at leave) and feels referendum should never of been called, and felt Johnson and Gove was using rhetoric they did not personally feel

In an interview with the Observer, Kenneth Clarke, a former Tory chancellor and a strong supporter of remaining inside the EU, criticised both campaigns for making overblown claims, which he said had left much of the electorate “angry and confused”. Clarke said a referendum on such a complex and important matter should never have been called and that the result was more uncertain than the Scottish referendum in 2014 had ever been. The outcome was now “in the lap of the gods”.

Taking aim at the remain camp, led by David Cameron, Clarke said it had “dramatised” Treasury reports which suggested Brexit would have serious negative effects on the economy.But he was far more damning of the leave camp, headed by his Tory colleagues Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, which he said had echoed the “bigotry and prejudice” of Nigel Farage. Its leaders, he suggested, had voiced opinions that he felt they did not truly hold, particularly on immigration.

Clarke added: “People have not been impressed by the campaigning. They do feel they don’t know enough about it. And they are slightly uncertain as to which way to vote.”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/18/eu-referendum-britain-voting-campaign-jo-cox

 

[liquidtmd]

Ken Clarke slams both sides for exaggerated claims (more angry at leave) and feels referendum should never of been called, and felt Johnson and Gove was using rhetoric they did not personally feel



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/18/eu-referendum-britain-voting-campaign-jo-cox

This and the larger quote sums up my opinion very well at this point

 

[ittoryu]

I have heard that argument many a time, but the reality is there are UK citizens and as such for all their ills we have to lump it... EU citizens are not, and I don't believe it is that unreasonable to say, put in to take out....just like our state pensions where you need 30 years stamp to claim a full one...

is it so wrong....and you will know more than me the it is working tax credits that is the bulk of benefits for EU citizens....I just dont feel they should qualify for any benefits until 5 year stamp duty

Too bad that the EU citizens that are actually using benefits, last I've checked, are a really low percentage...
Came here 10 years ago, never got a single day of benefit and yet I have to read that the problem are the EU citizens on benefits.

 

[Tak3n]

how on earth are the tories still polling well above Labour

ComRes UK Poll:
Conservatives 34%
Labour 29%
UKIP 19%
LD 8%
Conservative Lead 5%. Labour slip below 30%

 

[Undead]

how on earth are the tories still polling well above Labour

ComRes UK Poll:
Conservatives 34%
Labour 29%
UKIP 19%
LD 8%
Conservative Lead 5%. Labour slip below 30%

When a party says something about having cups of tea with Isis, it's not a good sign to the public they can be trusted to be the firm hand of justice Isis requires.

 

[IpKaiFung]

is it so wrong....and you will know more than me the it is working tax credits that is the bulk of benefits for EU citizens....I just dont feel they should qualify for any benefits until 5 year stamp duty

Out of interest do you know how much WTC someone working full time on National Living Wage will get? The person is single with no children and over 25.