NekoFever
Member
Because Labour's done fuck all.
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Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016
- Thread starter QuicheFontaine
- Start date
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Because Labour's done fuck all.
i mean i think everyone knows exactly why this is the case
PJV3
Member
This referendum was never going to be good for Labour, forgetting their position on immigration, it's a nationalist pride pumping topic.
Exterminieren
Banned
I've always liked Ken Clarke.
Mr Nash
square pies = communism
I'd imagine former blue collar Labour supporters have been shifting to UKIP or going unaffiliated the last while. There seems to be a fair bit of (and growing) disillusionment in Labour among people in that part of the socio-economic spectrum.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Well, I suppose I could trot out a whole bunch of reasons, but the real answer is ....
.... who the hell cares in the middle of a tense referendum campaign?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social
it is all going to be about the murder now isn't it.... if leave lose
UK's 'In' camp takes 3-point lead after lawmaker killed: poll
it is all going to be about the murder now isn't it.... if leave lose
UK's 'In' camp takes 3-point lead after lawmaker killed: poll
Phew, that's a bit better. Hopefully it holds up.
Exterminieren
Banned
There we go. Interesting to see if it holds up.
jufonuk
not tag worthy
ferrasvansen
Member
Another poll notice date and changes...
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/744273560265449474
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/744273560265449474
ferrasvansen
Member
Please be right.
According to yougov poll looks like swing had already started before campaign was suspended.
Exterminieren
Banned
So, according to this, Remain was on the rebound before Ms. Cox was murdered- an event that happened at 1 on the second day and who's ramifications didn't become clear until hours later surely wouldn't have affected the poll that much.
Wonder if Farage's poster tipped some undecideds over, or if it's just the status quo winning out as we get closer?
You could walk Lands End to the Scottish border without leaving an area where Conservative election fraud is being investigated.
PJV3
Member
Yeah, I've got plenty of reservations about the current EU, but I've had a glimpse of something worse the last few weeks.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah poster caused a bit of a backlash on twitter and Facebook, the comparison to Nazi propaganda was quite shocking and would certainly start to sway middle ground voters.
(Reuters) - The campaign for Britain to leave the European Union held a two-point lead over the rival "In" camp, according to an opinion poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday and was reported by The Mirror newspaper on Saturday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social
This been posted?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social
This been posted?
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah posted it earlier was a swing to remain and mostly done before campaign was stopped.
Exterminieren
Banned
Didn't expect this;Mail on Sunday backing Remain.
The Daily Mail proper will almost certainly be backing Leave, but between this and The Times, it's a weekend for papers you wouldn't expect backing Remain.
It has been mentioned, but that article doesn't touch on the most interesting bits of the story- the previous poll had Leave with a seven-point lead, and that poll was mostly completed before Jo Cox was murdered.
EDIT: Same poll held over the last two days has Remain with a one-point lead.
Still tight, but a definite swing towards Remain over the last few days.
The Daily Mail proper will almost certainly be backing Leave, but between this and The Times, it's a weekend for papers you wouldn't expect backing Remain.
It has been mentioned, but that article doesn't touch on the most interesting bits of the story- the previous poll had Leave with a seven-point lead, and that poll was mostly completed before Jo Cox was murdered.
EDIT: Same poll held over the last two days has Remain with a one-point lead.
Still tight, but a definite swing towards Remain over the last few days.
ferrasvansen
Member
It could be the status quo effect, it was expected normally in days before so could be starting now. That's why leave needed a steady 10 point lead to be certain.
Exterminieren
Banned
The polls are a nice snapshot of where the public mood is at any given points, but they can't really predict future trends. The bookies were looking at their model for how a referendum would normally go- there's usually a big swing back towards the status quo in the final days and hours of a referendum, and Leave's lead was not considered to be commanding enough to likely counteract that.
Perhaps these polls represent the expected last-minute swing. Maybe the overall tone of the campaigns has had an effect. Maybe Thursday's horrific events have properly solidified a swing. Perhaps Leave will be empowered and come out swinging. Who knows for certain?
Myself, I've been predicting a tight Remain win as a result of this last-minute conservatism for months now. Whether these polls are representative of this, or whether that status quo swing is yet to come and this is a reaction to Thursday, I couldn't honestly tell you.
brain_stew
Member
As expected, then. Leave needed to be going into the last week with a clear 10 point lead to have a real shot at this.
I'm feeling a lot more relieved now.
PJV3
Member
We just need Cameron and Osborne to keep feet out of mouths for the next few days. Corbyn can carry on going town to town being ignored, we should be alright.
jamieson87
Member
Crazy how fickle people are.
ferrasvansen
Member
Was looking at the polls over the last 6 years, leave was ahead for most of that time but there was changeover multiple times. I guess it just depends on many things people also forgetting England winning at euro 2016 is likely swaying folk too, I always reckoned if England were still in euro 2016 by polling day it would be remain and if they got knocked out, it would be leave, so yeah folk are fickle.
Psychotext
Member
Barking. I never saw that coming.
I'd say an issue like this where a large portion of the public wouldn't care if it wasn't for the referendum, who aren't informed about the benefits of in or out because the campaigns can't lay out facts properly and where people (wrongly) said the audience were the winners in debates is going to cause a percieved fickleness. I'd guess that the polls just reflected how that average person felt on the day they were called/invited to the online poll.
ferrasvansen
Member
There's a lot of press hedging, they can't afford to be seen as completely biased so funnily enough it will be evenly split.
Yup. Benefit of having a different editorial team on the Sunday. You can just split it between the two.
In the US at least there have been studies stating that first generation immigrants and generally a net loss on society between services they require, taxes they pay and economic activity they contribute. Basic surplus of unskilled labor problems, amplified by cultural and economic differences.
By the second generation though the differences were gone.
Hopefully this latest shift holds until Thursday.
The pause in campaigning should hopefully make it tough for any serious momentum or movement to be built to swing it back to Leave.
If Remain are feeling crafty they could say they'll do no more campaigning out of respect for Mrs Cox and put this thing into total stasis until the day of. Leave would look like right bastards if they jumped back on their bandwagon unopposed.
The pause in campaigning should hopefully make it tough for any serious momentum or movement to be built to swing it back to Leave.
If Remain are feeling crafty they could say they'll do no more campaigning out of respect for Mrs Cox and put this thing into total stasis until the day of. Leave would look like right bastards if they jumped back on their bandwagon unopposed.
NekoFever
Member
Plus the Mail and Mail on Sunday editors fucking hate each other. Good chance to piss off Paul Dacre.
I specifically said EEA migrants though, not migrants in general. I don't know how it is for the UK, but in the Netherlands here, Polish people for instance are half as likely to be on benefits as ethnically Dutch people and because almost all the immigration from those countries is of working age people...
Psychotext
Member
There were figures released recently showing they were a fairly net benefit (not massively surprising, tend to be young, healthy and working all the hours god sends), but there's been so much referendum related activity that I haven't got a chance of finding them.
Yeah I figured as much. This is the narrative that is harder to broach because data to support this tends to be people's own individual experiences, rather than net whole.
Having said that, data does support this idea that painter/decorators are doing worse off compared to average salary pay rises. It was the only one I believe in the construction salary chart I posted earlier that was down over the last three years. The industry as a whole is doing better than a lot of other industries e.g. for example electricians are doing way better than average.
Now migration has pros and cons, and I looked for care work too, and in that case, it can be argued, that migration has a negative effect, small, when averaged out, but demonstrable. Now whilst I don't think we should be cynical and point out that the jobs the author happened to choose was supported by evidence, because that's kind of good journalism - commentary backed up by quantitative and qualitative data; I do think we shouldn't be so blasé about end results.
Some people make what sounds almost like an implied protest vote - like it doesn't matter, considering Remain will win anyway, so I am going with this way. So when they look back at the vote, what affects my thinking will be taken more seriously by policymakers. Your vote should have full force, knowing all the consequences, short term and long term.
Wage policy is difficult from a national perspective; this government does one good thing accompanied by several bad things - raising the minimum wage then calling it the living wage ( which to me directly undermines the living wage foundation disgracefully), when the living wage isn't that - a wage you can actually live on.
There have been 'warnings' by the care sector, that this raise will negatively affect them (wages go up but available positions go down or something like that, maybe even quality of care will go down too), so how do you solve this quandary? I dunno. I honestly got nothing. The care sector doesn't have tons of money, so how high can wages go. Alternatively, decorators can only ask so much, before more people opt to paint themselves. So even with less competition salaries for these jobs - we can't automatically presume they will go higher. Though truth be told perhaps they will do. I dunno.
I'd prefer people work on the premise that brexit will win, and that's the destiny they choose, rather than protest vote. Still, even taking that into consideration, I do think that brexit politics seems to be the best fit for you personally. And I am grateful for getting to hear it at least.
That site puts me on the fence. it's not very well thought out with the type of questions that directly affect people.
I am remain because I like having EU261 and other rights to compensation when something goes wrong.
Freedom of movement allows me to go to Europe without applying for any sort of visa, from just a visit to getting cheap Ex-mainland Europe flights without paying the extortionate UK taxes.
We will go through at least 10 bad economic years, this seems to be widely acknowledged and I don't understand considering people's pensions and savings are going to be lost if it gets too bad, I remember all the crying when banks went under last time and if it happens again, it will be their own fault for voting out.
I do not trust an isolated UK not to destroy the NHS.
Even if we leave, we will still have to pay a lot of the costs for the EU we do today and will have many of their rules if we want any sort of trade deals.
The vote isn't whether we want to be free of EU rules or not, it's whether to remain a full member or not and as we can see from other countries within Europe, even if you're not a member but want to trade, you get a shit deal and no right of say in anything to do with the EU.
PackAPunchedMick
Member
I'm truly surprised at how one sided this thread is.
The polls suggest that those who have decided are split 50/50 whether to stay or leave yet GAF is predominantly IN.
The polls suggest that those who have decided are split 50/50 whether to stay or leave yet GAF is predominantly IN.
anonymous_abc
Member
GAF is very international(-minded) so that is hardly surprising.
Lots of Mainland Europeans here weighing in too!
anonymous_abc
Member
PJV3
Member
Honesty, getting treaty change isn't a likely event.
100%, well done to him, but 4 days before a referendum where Immigration is being shown as one of the main reasons for people to vote out....
not sure it was well advised at this juncture
agreed, and we all know it, but when Watson and other Labour people are trying to get out to their voters they are open to a discussion on migration, this goes against that
Done some readin this last two weeks on other EU countries. I would strongly suspect if the UK left the EU, it will trigger other countries to think about leaving too. The open door immigration policy appears to be a huge issue for many normal working class people across the EU. It's not reported by main stream media but the mass movement of people is stifling many towns. The huge problem with the Euro too and mass unemployment is really pushing some counties to breaking point (Italy for example).
I feel a sense of unease much of it not reported.
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