That assumes that Mario Kart is a system seller, rather than a game that sells to a high proportion of the existing userbase. I'm not convinced that is a safe assumption.
-
Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
Can Nintendo really turn the Wii U around?
- Thread starter nhlducks35
- Start date
POWERSPHERE
Member
When I buy one, you'll see a spike in the numbers, look out for it.
I can't see them turning it around this year...or getting anywhere near their sales targets
As has been said ...they needed Mario Kart to do that and Wii Sports U. They prioritised completely the wrong games. I'd be pausing production of Mario World, Wii Party U and DK now and switching all those teams to finish Mario Kart for this year.
Having said that, they can turn it around in 2014..as long as their key games are released in a timely manner and they are backed with a large, long marketing campaign and a strong price cut.
As far as the Gamecube vs Wii U..the fact is that had far,far better games, a far better price and better marketing during its launch window. Gamecube deserved to sell far more than it in that period.
As has been said ...they needed Mario Kart to do that and Wii Sports U. They prioritised completely the wrong games. I'd be pausing production of Mario World, Wii Party U and DK now and switching all those teams to finish Mario Kart for this year.
Having said that, they can turn it around in 2014..as long as their key games are released in a timely manner and they are backed with a large, long marketing campaign and a strong price cut.
As far as the Gamecube vs Wii U..the fact is that had far,far better games, a far better price and better marketing during its launch window. Gamecube deserved to sell far more than it in that period.
You're not convinced Mario kart is a system seller? That's ok, I'm convinced for you and I!
N64 seemed to have some games to get non nintendo people to get a system and gamecube seemed to fall back a bit to just the Nintendo fans but even it had a couple games like Resident Evil that had lots of other console owners port begging. I don't see that now for the WiiU and don't really expect it to happen. Will be dismal.
Didn't hurt the 3DS' fortunes.
I think it just needs to have a series of high quality popular releases. I think the Pikmin to Zelda to Mario to DKC to Kart to Smash schedule they seems to have going will get a lot of people interested. Going from attracting more hardcore fans to more casual as it picks up steam. If this release schedule doesn't work then the system is 90% fucked.
Freezie KO
Banned
I don't know how we can attempt to answer this without a clear definition of what it means to "turn the Wii U around".
Right now, the system looks to be selling towards a 15-20 million lifespan. But there's a huge grey area beyond that point. Does turn it around mean selling 100 million? 80? 40? Also, are we assuming 4 years or 6 years before they pull the plug?
Right now, the system looks to be selling towards a 15-20 million lifespan. But there's a huge grey area beyond that point. Does turn it around mean selling 100 million? 80? 40? Also, are we assuming 4 years or 6 years before they pull the plug?
Franchise fatigue on Nintendo's consoles is the worst in the industry. I frankly cringe now when I see names like Mario, Donkey Kong, Zelda, Mario Kart, Kirby, and the others. The Wii U lineup really does sound exactly like what I played on the Gamecube, and it was already a tired lineup a decade ago then.
They have got to start putting franchises into semi-retirement and start putting out primarily new stuff. The Wii U just has no excitement or buzz.
They have got to start putting franchises into semi-retirement and start putting out primarily new stuff. The Wii U just has no excitement or buzz.
nhlducks35
Member
I put it in the OP.
Can you convince me with actual data?
I'm not convinced it's a system seller, but I'm not convinced it isn't either.
There was a huge price cut and Mario 3D Land at the same time though, making it hard to measure how big an impact Mario Kart had.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
I'm unconcerned. I was unconcerned when GC was unpopular as well. I'll buy it for cheap with about 8 outstanding games.
Rush2thestart
Member
Good thing Wii U has 3D World then right?
Mario Kart DS also helped push DS sales. Mario Kart Double Dash also spiked Gamecube sales for the holidays and was one of the best selling titles after SSBM on the system. Mario Kart is a known quantity at this point.
NSMB2 / NSMBU suggests life isn't that simple. There's also the question of a price cut.
Cool, that's all I was asking. Actual numbers would be ideal, but I don't expect you to drag 'em up and I'm not going to bother either. So, Mario Kart is a known system seller. Understood.
The biggest problem going forward is the lack of games. I know everyone is on an "it's got one game a month for the rest of the year! What more do you need!?" trip but the real issue here is a lack of choice and variety.
No sports games at all is a massive black mark against the console. Missing FIFA and Madden is usually the death knell for any console but to also be lacking second-string games like PES and NBA 2K and to have n Nintendo sports presence either is unthinkable.
It's lacking in so many areas; no racers, no shooters, no RPGs, no fighters. That's the biggest challenge Nintendo faces right now. The promise of maybe one game in each of those genres in the next year-18 months isn't going to cut it.
No sports games at all is a massive black mark against the console. Missing FIFA and Madden is usually the death knell for any console but to also be lacking second-string games like PES and NBA 2K and to have n Nintendo sports presence either is unthinkable.
It's lacking in so many areas; no racers, no shooters, no RPGs, no fighters. That's the biggest challenge Nintendo faces right now. The promise of maybe one game in each of those genres in the next year-18 months isn't going to cut it.
With Nintendo's financials they don't need to "turn it around". The only thing that's getting hurt is the brand. If they'd listen to consumers (to the fans especially) and kept up with technology i think they'd be in the big boys league right now; instead of having a sub-par console that's been recognized as the "nintendo device" - if you want Mario and Zelda you go buy a Wii U, but if you wan't everything else there's three other platforms there for ya.
Sure they can, Sony did it with PS3, but there are differences that separate the two scenarios. Sony had every third party in the world making titles for the struggling PS3 at the time, Nintendo clearly does not have that luxury.
Thus they are dependent on the few big Nintendo games, rather than a rain of third party titles hitting every month.
The hope hinges on Mario Kart being some sort of savior, yet NSMB U has not had any effect on Wii U sales, the idea that people will buy a Wii U just to play a sequel to a very popular Wii game has clearly been proven to not work.
The failure of NSMB U to move systems above GameCube levels has been attributed somewhat the fact that 3DS had a NSMB game released, yet the same argument can be applied to Mario Kart 7 on 3DS. I can see no logical argument for why MK will have a massive impact, when NSMB U did not, what seperates these 2 series so much for that to happen?
If the Wii U is to be saved, it wont be done through the same old same old, they need a big fresh title that appeals to a huge audience, something akin to Wii Sports or Nintendogs like, something you cannot play elsewhere, not even on 3DS or Wii.
The bad news is that they likely cannot save the Wii U to become as big as Wii, that is unrealistic, nothing hints at that. The good news is that they do not really need the Wii U to do 100 million or win the ever prestigious and important "console war". They will make money off it, because for all their faults, Nintendo is still smart. And 3DS is doing just fine, it wont have trouble doing 100 million, i can see that happening. So while the Wii U might seem "doomed", Nintendo certainly is not. So there is no reason to panic, even if the Wii U is failing.
Thus they are dependent on the few big Nintendo games, rather than a rain of third party titles hitting every month.
The hope hinges on Mario Kart being some sort of savior, yet NSMB U has not had any effect on Wii U sales, the idea that people will buy a Wii U just to play a sequel to a very popular Wii game has clearly been proven to not work.
The failure of NSMB U to move systems above GameCube levels has been attributed somewhat the fact that 3DS had a NSMB game released, yet the same argument can be applied to Mario Kart 7 on 3DS. I can see no logical argument for why MK will have a massive impact, when NSMB U did not, what seperates these 2 series so much for that to happen?
If the Wii U is to be saved, it wont be done through the same old same old, they need a big fresh title that appeals to a huge audience, something akin to Wii Sports or Nintendogs like, something you cannot play elsewhere, not even on 3DS or Wii.
The bad news is that they likely cannot save the Wii U to become as big as Wii, that is unrealistic, nothing hints at that. The good news is that they do not really need the Wii U to do 100 million or win the ever prestigious and important "console war". They will make money off it, because for all their faults, Nintendo is still smart. And 3DS is doing just fine, it wont have trouble doing 100 million, i can see that happening. So while the Wii U might seem "doomed", Nintendo certainly is not. So there is no reason to panic, even if the Wii U is failing.
PdotMichael
Banned
Depends what you mean by "turn around". At this point it seems like it's going to be a repeat of the NGC, more or less. Maybe slightly better numbers in the end, that's possible. But it won't suddenly start selling like hotcakes.
WiiU's problem is that the release of some big guns will coincide with new console launches. As for the market that made the Wii so successful, it seems that ship has sailed.
WiiU's problem is that the release of some big guns will coincide with new console launches. As for the market that made the Wii so successful, it seems that ship has sailed.
It's also going to coincide with the release of the new Pokemon games which could also hurt Wii U sales because people may opt for the cheaper 3DS and Pokemon. Nintendo could end up being their own worst enemy this holiday.
Keep supporting the system until fall 2015. With all the announced games. But Nintendo should announce their next system at early 2015 and release it on fall 2015. The next system should be similar power of PS4 with PC architecture. They should also let a western company sort their online infrastructure and OS out. They should instantly get 3rd party support due to similar architecture and power of PS4. And Nintendo 1st party should get people to switch over.
freefornow
Gold Member
Well it will need 3rd party support to keep this "new" system viable because it will take Nintendo 5 years after launch to come to terms with developing for this new architecture. Please understand!
Steve Youngblood
Member
I don't have hard numbers either, but I don't think there's any doubt that Mario Kart is capable of moving units. However, I would also suggest that "system seller" is another vague term. Sales will surely spike for Nintendo when MK8 releases, but by how much, and for how long? It'll sell Wii Us, but I think we need to see a better baseline number than 35k a month before we surmise that a big title or two is all it needs.
Some are banking on the fact that the 2012 launch was a soft launch, and we'll see what this puppy can do when they "relaunch" it this fall. But after E3, I'm not convinced they're going to have enough quickly enough. 3D World will help, but I think they'd be in better shape if that it Mario Kart was ready for an aggressively priced bundle.
Terrible Majesty
Member
They need better demo kiosks showing off Mario Kart playable. A price drop to 299 would help. A bundle with Mario Kart would be even better.
I can't see Wii U selling more than half of what the Wii sold in its lifetime.
I can't see Wii U selling more than half of what the Wii sold in its lifetime.
The thing is, it didn't bomb after a full fledged marketing setup.
There was no marketing to speak of in fact. Many potential buyers around the world still don't know it exists and that it's an actual new system. The launch of the other two consoles might in fact be beneficial if they promote the WiiU as "their" new HD system along PS4/XBone. Many people won't even know it's been out for a year at that point, and might see it as a cheaper alternative (with built in tablet features), with a software line-up that is more appealing than the launch line-up of the other two consoles (if by that time you don't only have the games out now, but 3D Mario, Donkey Kong, Sonic, Pikmin, and also 3rd party blockbusters as AC4, Watch_Dogs, Splinter Cell, COD...). Plus, being readily available when PS4 (most likely) sells out.
It's a tough spot, but they can still turn this around. People don't know it exists, that means people don't know it bombed. They can still turn this around, but it won't be easy.
There was no marketing to speak of in fact. Many potential buyers around the world still don't know it exists and that it's an actual new system. The launch of the other two consoles might in fact be beneficial if they promote the WiiU as "their" new HD system along PS4/XBone. Many people won't even know it's been out for a year at that point, and might see it as a cheaper alternative (with built in tablet features), with a software line-up that is more appealing than the launch line-up of the other two consoles (if by that time you don't only have the games out now, but 3D Mario, Donkey Kong, Sonic, Pikmin, and also 3rd party blockbusters as AC4, Watch_Dogs, Splinter Cell, COD...). Plus, being readily available when PS4 (most likely) sells out.
It's a tough spot, but they can still turn this around. People don't know it exists, that means people don't know it bombed. They can still turn this around, but it won't be easy.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
No. Mario Kart for Christmas this year in conjunction with a $250 price point for the "premium or 32gb" may have had a chance, but now the future has been written and so shall it be done.
Honestly at this rate it seems a push for it to get to 20-25 million lifetime. Theres a danger that even after Kart and Smash arrive, theyre temporary bumps and then the bottom falls out permanently.
Honestly at this rate it seems a push for it to get to 20-25 million lifetime. Theres a danger that even after Kart and Smash arrive, theyre temporary bumps and then the bottom falls out permanently.
I think they'd be pretty happy with selling half of what the Wii did. If it can pull that off, it will have outsold the Gamecube and the N64 by a considerable margin.
I agree, Nintendo planned for this schedule and likely knew it before or around launch.
EmCeeGramr
Member
The thing about any comparisons to GameCube that gets me is that there's never been a console handled in as such a bizarre fashion as the Wii U. Nintendo pushed GameCube hard with a relatively strong launch window lineup (Wave Race, Luigi's Mansion, Rogue Squadron II, Pikmin, SSBM), then there were a few notable anticipated games (REmake, Eternal Darkness) and a $50 price cut in spring and summer, and the latter half of the year closed out with... games that are good in retrospect (well, some of them) but didn't sell all that much relatively (Mario Sunshine, Animal Crossing, Star Fox Adventures, Metroid Prime).
With Wii U, Nintendo released two of the least exciting launch titles in a long time (NSMBU, NintendoLand) and then only two months later was all "Oh shit, our bad. We forgot to make games. Hold on until the second half of the year, we'll have a shit ton of games. Sorry!"
With Wii U, Nintendo released two of the least exciting launch titles in a long time (NSMBU, NintendoLand) and then only two months later was all "Oh shit, our bad. We forgot to make games. Hold on until the second half of the year, we'll have a shit ton of games. Sorry!"
It's possible. There are a lot of factors going against it now, but I think there's a chance. If they can really build that fan base up within the next year to about 10 million or so, I think they'll have some good momentum to bring in more third parties. Their success is contingent on the performance of their lineup for the next half year.
Exterminieren
Banned
Is it not the case that spreading Kart and Smash out might reduce the chance of a temporary spike?
We know the 3DS came back atrong with price cut/ 3D Land/ Mario Kart, but the momentum was stopped in its tracks by the fact that only Kid Icarus sold any sort of numbers in the first half of last year. Spacing out Mario Kart, Smash, Yoshi, X, Bayonetta, whatever the hell else... is that not more likely to build lasting momentum, rather than chucking everything at this Christmas?
Yeah 3DS's main problem was the lack of games after Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7. 2012 was simply horrible. The system picked up an 2013 has picked up the slack release wise and the sales picked up too. If Wii U can keep up the releases (at least one good and big exclusive per month) throughout 2014 then I see no reason why it couldn't succeed. FExSMT, X, Bayonetta 2, SSB, Mario Kart 8 and Yarn Yoshi are all already scheluded for 2014 so I would say that it is not unreasonable at all.
biggersmaller
Banned
Yup. Those systems also competed graphically and promoted ground-breaking mature games (RE4/007), which in addition to the kiddie stuff created a base to be considered moderately successful.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
3DS owns that "kid wants a handheld" market, and its clearly where Nintendo holds all the cards from Monster Hunter to Pokemon.
Nintendo's home console business is in the process of dying however. Only Kart and Smash have the chance to move hardware, none of the other stuff you mention will make a dent. Any sort of "it'll revive like 3DS!" assumptions are moot because the handheld market isnt the exact same dog the home console one is. The perceived true market leaders of home consoles are releasing "the next big thing" this November, which is a month before Nintendo even gets out some software that will do anything worth a damn (3d world).
The only chance for a turnaround is for a "Pokemon situation", like with the GameBoy (which wasnt in trouble anyway), where a brand new IP arrives that offers something entirely new and drives the world crazy around it. Except I don't think they do as seemingly none of Nintendo's designers have any good ideas for the GamePad.
RumblingRosco
Member
That's my major concern. I'm enjoying my Wii U, but ultimately, they've only proved the GamePad is fun for minigames, such as NintendoLand and presumably Game & Wario (which I haven't had a chance to play yet). Lego City used the GamePad nicely, but it didn't feel like it -needed- the GamePad. What I've seen from Mario Kart and 3D Land don't really suggest to me that they know what they're doing with the GamePad yet.
Exterminieren
Banned
It sold that in a month where the only software release of any import was a port of a Wii game. It was the best selling platform of the month, it had software in the 2rd and 3rd places of the chart and Iwata's already mentioned that 3DS sales quadrupled in the week after the reporting period with the release of Animal Crossing.
No one's claiming it's some big smashing DS-like success, but it's a platform with some degree of momentum and big titles heading down the pipe.
Bigmac1910
Member
I think they need a massive price drop to increase the user base, so it can become an impulse buy and the third parties can finally offer some proper support. I don't think selling the usual franchises are enough to bring in people from the "outside" this time. Personally the more time goes by the more afraid I am that it will fail hard, and because of this fear I want to spend less and less money on it, a true catch 22 tbh.
Kai Dracon
Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
The N64 sold 32 million in its lifetime. Not that great, or that much better than the GameCube. One must wonder how much of its sales were due purely to inertia from the 16-bit era. Buyers who expected it to do better than it did purely by virtue of being a Nintendo device - the company video games were formerly associated with almost exclusively by many.
The N64 didn't really get any more competitive "matoor" 3rd party games than the Wii U is getting. Besides Goldeneye and a handful of other titles, N64 was treated like the Wii: receiving c-tier shovelware and "special" versions of 3rd party IP rather than direct ports. There's already going to be more major 3rd party games on the Wii U by the end of this year, thanks to Ubisoft.
The Gamecube may have gotten more competitive 3rd party support than the N64 did, and it didn't do any good - the general public had decided Nintendo was not the cool spot anymore and went to Playstation.
The N64 didn't really get any more competitive "matoor" 3rd party games than the Wii U is getting. Besides Goldeneye and a handful of other titles, N64 was treated like the Wii: receiving c-tier shovelware and "special" versions of 3rd party IP rather than direct ports. There's already going to be more major 3rd party games on the Wii U by the end of this year, thanks to Ubisoft.
The Gamecube may have gotten more competitive 3rd party support than the N64 did, and it didn't do any good - the general public had decided Nintendo was not the cool spot anymore and went to Playstation.
Nintendo can't price drop until the PS3 and the 360 both get significant drops. It would look pretty bad if they were competing directly with current consoles when they're ostensibly a "next-gen" machine.
They're not going to just sit idly by while these new consoles drop, though. When November hits I expect to see some pretty good deals on a Wii U that by then will have an impressive lineup of games that are competitive with what are likely to be mostly jank filled launch lineups on the PS4 and Xbone.
They're not going to just sit idly by while these new consoles drop, though. When November hits I expect to see some pretty good deals on a Wii U that by then will have an impressive lineup of games that are competitive with what are likely to be mostly jank filled launch lineups on the PS4 and Xbone.
test_account
XP-39C²
Sure, they've turned the WiiU around before:
He is turning it around
Seriously though, i think that much will depend on how popular the PS4 and Xbox One becomes. I think that they can turn it around so that it sells better than what it does now at least.
He is turning it around
Seriously though, i think that much will depend on how popular the PS4 and Xbox One becomes. I think that they can turn it around so that it sells better than what it does now at least.
Angel Whispers
Member
Actual numbers? Sure.
Mario Kart Wii has sold over 34 million copies, as of 31st March 2013; Not having a go at you here, but to put that figure into some sort of context...
The lifetime sales of Mario Kart Wii are higher than those of both the GameCube (about 22m) and the Nintendo 64 (nearly 33m). What's even more impressive than that is that around 7 million of those units have been sold since April 2011, with over 2 million of those since January 2012, some 7 months after the Wii U was revealed, and considering that there weren't many Wii games since then. It's been out for a bit over five years (since April 2008).
With that in mind, the fact that the DS numbers are no slouch at over 23 million, and that 7 helped the 3DS to become the fastest-selling console at one point, I think it's fair to say that it will shift consoles and help it to sustain some momentum for much of its life cycle - More so, when one considers that SM3D World, Wii Fit U, DKC: Tropical Freeze, possibly Smash Bros. and Bayonetta 2 will be there by the time it hits stores. When you add that Mario Kart 8 is the first in HD to the prospect of playing this with an improved online system in Miiverse/Nintendo Network, those writing if off at this point sound even more preposterous and bizarre. Its primary problem is that it currently lacks its own Nintendo games, exclusives and retail titles that aren't ports. That's why I've always said that it's fine, and they're right not to panic - It's done as well as it could have done in the current circumstances, and one would expect them to improve once others feel there are sufficient reasons to bite.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Mario Karts DS and Wii numbers are on consoles whose userbase exceeds 100 million or were well on their way to those points anyway. Its a great "I have the console already, why not!!" title that feeds on nostalgia and such forth.
Kart 8 will be launching on a platform with (greatly) sub 10 million owners, and possibly even reaching a brand fatigue moment that NSMB has experienced and other Nintendo properties are in danger of reaching if their console is perceived as having just the same ol' shit again.
Smash on 3DS looks far more exciting for instance than the WiiU model, which to be quite frank at E3 looked like some Dolphin ISO-hack with new characters.
The WiiU just doesnt have a product home it seems, especially when its competing with its actual portable little brother. And thus the poor sales.
Kart 8 will be launching on a platform with (greatly) sub 10 million owners, and possibly even reaching a brand fatigue moment that NSMB has experienced and other Nintendo properties are in danger of reaching if their console is perceived as having just the same ol' shit again.
Smash on 3DS looks far more exciting for instance than the WiiU model, which to be quite frank at E3 looked like some Dolphin ISO-hack with new characters.
The WiiU just doesnt have a product home it seems, especially when its competing with its actual portable little brother. And thus the poor sales.
Similar threads
- Poll