Entryhazard
Banned
I wish it was the mobile bubble bursting
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"Candy Crush maker shares plunge after profit warning", could make meager $500M in Q2
- Thread starter oni-link
- Start date
It's a matter of sustainability. If Candy Crush is waning then King needs to be able to produce new hits or the valuation of the market is inflated because nobody can actually make that kind of money consistently. People had thought Soda was going to do it, but I guess this is not stopping the decline. One also wonders if the got big fast if they will crash just as fast.
So they aren't hurting but it's not a healthy look until we find what the bottom equilibrium actually is.
RockTurtle
Member
going down from making 550m to 500m a quarter.
what a problem to have .
*Konami wishes it had that kind of problem
what a problem to have .
*Konami wishes it had that kind of problem
I didnt wanna go there. lol. And I'm sure Nintendo is smarter to not think the same thing overall. Mobile gaming is the future...the future is now. Just dont put all your eggs in the mobile basket if you dont have to.
Quoted for Truth.
DrROBschiz
Member
Maybe they should be developing exit strategies as soon as a game explodes
I dont see them reinvesting enough money to make better and more indepth games
Interfectum
Member
Yeah King only has the #4 and #6 top grossing Apps on the App Store. Time for them to bail out. If I were them I'd just remove the games from the App Store now, they are done.
Cave Johnson
Member
I wouldn't add TF2 on the list. It was converted to a F2P to test the waters. The userbase as well as Steam's workshop allowed the feature to be facilitated smoothly, nevermind the large, solid, dedicated players behind it puts it in a more desirable level than say "Candy Crush" or "Angry Birds".
The roller coaster at the top of the hill.
That said, people who keep praying for mobile in general to crash are crazy. Individual games will crash, sure, but customers will just move on to the next one. The mobile game market dying would require smart phones in general to fall off, and I don't see that happening.
That said, people who keep praying for mobile in general to crash are crazy. Individual games will crash, sure, but customers will just move on to the next one. The mobile game market dying would require smart phones in general to fall off, and I don't see that happening.
RockTurtle
Member
so question. Mobile game companies make bajillions of dollars fast while making inexpensive games.
why exactly do they fail and close shop? what do they do with all that cash, given what i assume to be the small amount of investment.
surely having a small team of coders fixing bugs, and maybe paying for data to apple/google for a small MB game, it wouldn't be enough to bankrupt a company like this?
is it server costs?
where's all that money going?
why exactly do they fail and close shop? what do they do with all that cash, given what i assume to be the small amount of investment.
surely having a small team of coders fixing bugs, and maybe paying for data to apple/google for a small MB game, it wouldn't be enough to bankrupt a company like this?
is it server costs?
where's all that money going?
DrROBschiz
Member
Its interesting
There is no growth curve for these games. Its not the same
If Angry Birds taught us anything is that even sequels or even completely new games isnt enough
You cant seem to make a mobile game that brings people back every year like a Call of Duty game does
Thats because the people they are getting all this money from aren't strict gamers.
You almost have to start from scratch EVERY TIME and hope you strike gold.
Yeah, you're right. On the other hand I do think "real" games could bring in the "mobile games suuuuck" crowd.
MightyHedgehog
Member
Oh no, only half a billion dollars for the quarter. How will they keep the lights on? I wish I understood the whole 'bubble' line of thought when it came to mobile. People will, for the foreseeable future, want things to do on their phones they always carry with them and use all day long. Mobile games are relatively cheap to make and maintain, so as long as you're not burning through your cash with massive staffing, you can stay in the game much longer than console or PC land, I imagine. I'm not a huge fan of most mobile games or their rinky-dink hardware and lack of ergonomic or particularly positive and tactile-feeling controls for traditional game types, but it's got all of the attention and money being poured into it to create a more appealing set of software types that don't have to be all about extreme monetization all the time. Those in it for the long haul will probably end up doing some form of what consoles game makers used to be all about in the past generations well before now where they produced regular hits that were safe and took more creative stabs with other releases to balance out their offerings, giving themselves more ways to stay in it and appeal to more people.
Gravy Boat
Member
To be fair I haven't played very much TF2, I've just generally heard that it's got a good F2P model.
I agree. Mobile gaming isnt going anywhere. Thanks to app stores alone its not.
Cave Johnson
Member
There will always be a "game market" because anybody who can upload a "game" irrespective of cost and development have a marketplace to facilitate that easily. Question is, what is the broader view of the game's market - as in - actual solid userbase that don't jump from one game to another causing the result Candy Crush is facing right now.?
Where else? The shareholders' pockets of course. They're not going to wait till the money funnels down to where their shares are below their intended value. They're jumping the sinking ship the moment a golden cruise liner picks them up.
DrROBschiz
Member
Naw cuz then you split the audience and you arent going to get habitual gamers to put down the controller to play mobile games
At least not while better options are fighting for their time.
Dark_castle
Junior Member
KnockOneOff
Banned
Mobile gaming! Short bursts and quick cash!! they will never build established games on mobile
Even the famous angry birds has had its wings cut and taking the mighty fall
Even the famous angry birds has had its wings cut and taking the mighty fall
DrROBschiz
Member
Yup
Makes more sense to stay small and develop hundreds of cheap throw away games. Angry Birds did run a nice long time and had merchandise everywhere.
I imagine these companies will catch on and actually have the expansion and contraction of fickle mobile games down to a science.
Interfectum
Member
Rovio took a hit in consumer products (Angry Birds toys and shit). Their game revenue was up in 2014 iirc.
Yeah. People on GAF almost uniformly despise mobile gaming, and really hope that any major failure is a sign that it's going away.
King has not been able to repeat its success the way companies like Supercell and Gung Ho have. Obviously being able to create a monster hit can singlehandedly make you rich, but if you want your company to survive, you need to show the ability to do this repeatedly, and King is failing at that.
Which is why their stock is going down even though they may make tons of money this quarter; people are losing faith in their ability to repeat their success long term.
1st Course
Member
Profit is not everything. Declining revenue is a sign that the company is losing momentum and possibly heading to irrelevancy > some investors feels it is better to jump out before stock go even more down.
These days specially revenue growth is getting more and more important, especially when it comes to internet/mobile stocks. In many cases Investors are ready to overlook losses and reward companies as long as they are posting healthy revenue gains (see: Amazon and LinkedIn for example)
Interfectum
Member
Unless King is grossly overspending their profits I'd say they have time to make another hit. They might not be the big company on the block anymore but I don't see them crumbling over night. People in this thread seem to think Rovio is dead too simply because Angry Birds isn't the #1 craze anymore yet they are doing okay.
Actually they're learning it in an extraordinarily lucrative way.
Well that's my point. I think if Nintendo gives us decent games people will have no problem playing those games on their smartphone. Not having to buy a Nintendo console just to play their games could be a huge incentive for some.
Gravy Boat
Member
Your girlfriend is part of the problem. Think to rethink the relationship!jk
She kind of is, but I'd say in the 2 or 3 years she's been playing it she's spend maybe £10 total on it. Not bad value really when you look at it like that. Although it's more comparable to paying to feed an addition than paying to get any sort of enjoyment out of it.
Sometimes she asks me to help if she's stuck, which I do. But then I get mad at how the game is clearly designed to almost force you to pay to progress. She doesn't believe me that this is something companies would do to increase profits
Mobile gaming is headed for a massive crash. Anything that bubbles up that big inevitably reaches a point where it can't sustain itself followed by a massive drop. History is littered with examples.
I posted this a few months ago in a thread about a mobile game company tripling it's previous years revenue
I posted this a few months ago in a thread about a mobile game company tripling it's previous years revenue
Interfectum
Member
As long as hundreds of millions of people own mobile devices there will be no mobile gaming crash. You will see companies rise and fall within the mobile gaming space but it's not going anywhere.
Oh, I agree with that, but stocks don't work that way.
Investors aren't asking "will your company be bankrupt tomorrow?" But rather "will you be able to sustain and grow your business?" If the answer to the first question was yes, then King's stock would be in the penny category already. If the answer to the second question is yes, then stocks would tumble from their highs but not be worthless -- and it's that second thing we're seeing.
Investors are coming to terms with the fact that King is a big success, and it's still at least possible they could strike it big again, but it's no longer likely that they'll stay on top of the mobile market forever.
Or minor failure. Or perceived failure.
It's embarrassing that an enthusiast games forum probably has less incisive commentary on mobile games on average than somewhere like Mumsnet or TheCarWeldingForum. Sure, we have people that know their shit, but threads like this show just how few they are.
It's not heading for a crash, companies and investors just need to learn to keep expectations in check. If you look at a company like GungHo or DeNA or Gumi over in Japan you can see an extended plateau of success that is (mostly) sustained by releasing, gasp, multiple games that are well received.
Just like any other company, if you don't continue to innovate your product, you'll eventually stop making huge profits. Saying that Mobile Gaming is going to crash because King com has contracting profits is like saying that PCs are going to crash after HP had a market contraction. :-/
Gravy Boat
Member
It's not going anywhere. You might see a change in some of the big players, some companies will collapse while others take the top spot, but mobile gaming as a whole is staying for the foreseeable future.
I was gonna respond to the first quote and say....maybe....if done right.
IMO only a few types of games that use a controller, mouse can be a true 1:1 copy, port on mobile. Turn based RPGs is one. Point n Click games is another. (I didnt think RPG could until reading this forum. I never really thought about it before.)
One thing I wanted to mention in a thread recently but didnt is the size of the device and features of the device. They have an impact some might not think about. Games I can play comfortably on a 6" phone I cant on a 3.5" phone. Something as simple as Home Run Battle is alot better on a bigger device. And thats a mobile only game. AFAIK.
Then on screen buttons vs hard buttons. Hard buttons help with unintentional clicks off screen that can exit a game. Or on screen buttons that dont disappear when a game starts or somehow come back for whatever reason. That can be frustrating when you are in the middle of a game and you accidentally exit it.
Playing a classic platformer with on screen keys...the smaller the device the worse the experience. Forget a classic sport game like Tecmo Bowl. Its not worth it. And I mean play them like they originally were, not adapted for mobile. Then if the device is too big...do on screen keys even help?
It's not really a consequence of ignorance, in my opinion -- these are conclusions reached through a strong emotional bias. Some people hate mobile so much that they hope everything is a sign that it will just go away. This is unlike, say, TheCarWeldingForum, where people can look at the market more objectively because they don't hate it so much and hope it dies.
We already have someone in this thread suggesting that the enormous success and growth of mobile is a sign that it's going away. I mean, you can spin virtually anything to "prove" that mobile gaming is a fad if you're emotionally invested enough.
It's incredibly expensive to acquire players. On some channels it can cost you $5 to $10 per player or more. For most games the lifetime value of a player is $2 or less. The strategy is to spend large on marketing to push your way to the top of the download charts where you'll then start pulling in more "organic" players, who tend to be worth more than players bought with ads.
Consider that Clash of Clans gets about 50k downloads a day on iOS that means you need to spend at least $250k a day to make a push on the top 10 chart, all the while just hoping a publisher with deeper pockets isn't doing the same thing at the same time.
This is the Supercell and King playbook, and smaller devs simply can't compete. Supercell drops a million bucks a day or more on marketing but they can afford it because their game retains players very well and they are making something like $10 million a day. Candy Crush doesn't retain as well and players don't spend as much so when they are upside-down on player acquisition costs it's not sustainable for the long-term.
Felessan
Member
It's rise&fall, but market itself still expanding and expanding at rather fast pace.
It's one in a million chance to be a GTA5 of mobile gaming. But be successful, even be very successful reaping a big profits (just not a insane Supercell-level profits) - is much much easier.
This is what a current maturing trend in mobile development.
Basically the lifetime of mobile game is several years and you can expect your mobile games to eclipse at 2nd year (in COLOPL Q1 results there is a number of slides about that). So to remain viable you can't just sit and cash in on your hit game, you need to constant flow of new quality made games to replace older games.
Just as in usual gaming - you cannot sell the same COD:MW for 10 years.
Luckily there are sane and thoughtful posters too in MOST of these threads.
I used to be one of those Mobile Doom and Gloom sayers, like a Christian looking forward to sign of the apocalypse, I would take every mobile gaming failure and silently celebrate it as the final piece that would bring the tower crumbling down. God was I stupid.
Half a billion earnings in 3 months by just one company who just made one (or a couple of?) hit games that cost them salty crackers. Mobile gaming is collapsing .
Also, f*** the stock market. They create bubbles out of anticipation, big players slowly pump money to increase stock market value, and abandon at the first hint of "slowed down" revenue or "decreased profit". Not even a net loss. Then the stock value falls and small players usually get shafted.
My close to 0 knowledge of economics can easily be spotted but that's what I think.
Even if their earnings declined by 25% every three months and the shut down doors within a year, we are talking about revenues totalling more than a billion dollars. Not bad money flowing around for crushing candy bars.
Also, f*** the stock market. They create bubbles out of anticipation, big players slowly pump money to increase stock market value, and abandon at the first hint of "slowed down" revenue or "decreased profit". Not even a net loss. Then the stock value falls and small players usually get shafted.
My close to 0 knowledge of economics can easily be spotted but that's what I think.
What hard way?
Even if their earnings declined by 25% every three months and the shut down doors within a year, we are talking about revenues totalling more than a billion dollars. Not bad money flowing around for crushing candy bars.
……forgetit
Member
It's not a bubble though, it's basically a new industry that will be there as long as smart phones are around. The issue is it's more focused on luck rather than actually good products.
It's starting to balance out so that it's less based on luck and more based on advertising spending. Kinda sad that more marketing people are put to work by the mobile industry than developers. Not that the AAA model treats developers well anyway.
kinoki
Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Mobile gaming is the only interesting place for gaming at the moment. I really hope it grows and evolves. It's certainly more interesting than console gaming. I also expect King to grow when they come installed on Windows 10. They really need new games though.
Interfectum
Member
Yeah I just find it interesting that when investors are slightly disappointed in King's massive profits that signals the end of the mobile industry. Yet when Sony takes losses and their stock is thrown in the junk pile everything is okay and the console industry is still strong.
fluffydelusions
Member
UpDownLeftRight
Banned
There seems to be a large problem of sustainability with mobile games. In particular, games that rely on 'whales'. The common issue seems to be that there are a limited number of whales and once that threshold has been reached it becomes a slow climb back to the bottom. The whales find the next big thing to jump on instead and the current big company becomes the next slowly burning company, being replaced by another new company in the process. It seems really hard to sustain a single company for extremely long periods of time.
One thing I'd be interested to know is how sustainable is the entire approach of companies coming and going as little more than trends? How long until the whales stop looking for their new thing to move on to? The pattern keeps repeating so I'm guessing it's not slowing down anytime soon.
One thing I'd be interested to know is how sustainable is the entire approach of companies coming and going as little more than trends? How long until the whales stop looking for their new thing to move on to? The pattern keeps repeating so I'm guessing it's not slowing down anytime soon.
Having Candy Crush Saga installed on Windows 10 PCs probably won't expand their customer base by enough to sustain any kind of growth, but they have profits for days and more than enough time to come up with something that will keep them in the top 10.
And I agree that mobile gaming is super interesting right now. Giants like King and Supercell are propping up a market that is almost endless in its possibilities. Stuff like Out There and 80 Days make all the shitty freemium games worth it a hundred times over. For God's sake, Terraria has freaking TOYS in Walmart because of Mobile gaming. If that's not a testament to it's power and still unseen limits of potential, I don't know what is.