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[IcyBlueStrawberry]

Did anyone else misread the title as "Charlie Sheen overtaking US"?

 

[MrHicks]

China's problem is what they're doing is not sustainable. Their "one child policy" (and yes I know it's looser in some areas and often poorly enforced) has led to the younger generation being HEAVILY skewed towards males. That sounds great in the short term but as for a long term future... if we think the US has it bad with the baby boomers retiring first imagine as the current generation of chinese gets too old to work and THEN realize there won't be NEARLY enough women pumping out babies to REPLACE that generation. China's economy is going great, it's their demographics that are getting fucked over.

so what?
abandon one child?

you want infinite chinese pop explosion?
thats also not sustainable

 

[numble]

I agree with this though ... that's why I came out of China ... to find easy pussies

The Shanghai male:female ratio is 1:1...

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

The bubble is there is not because there's no people to fill in, it's because many people can't afford it.

Besides, the one child policy isn't what you think:
1. For people from countryside, they can have 2 kids if the first one is a girl (yeah it's stupid but ...). In fact they can have more and the local governments are not that strict about this like they used to be.

2. For some cities they can have a second one if one of the parents is a "one child".

Thanks for the clarification

It's not like the US will LET them become the dominant military power.

Bald eagle vs. Panda. Who will win?

 

[_Xenon_]

The Shanghai male:female ratio is 1:1...

You forgot the foreigners, rich dudes from HK / TW, lesbians, and

Spoiler

sharp knees

.

 

[Gaborn]

Comparing it to North Korean censorship is idiotic.

Howso? Denying people access to information to the point that people are ignorant of basic historical facts seems comparable. Yes North Korea is considerably more isolated and considerably more closed but dismissing it just "because" is lazy.

I think most educated Chinese are more aware of world events and their own history than you give them credit for.

Source? I provided a news source that directly contradicts this claim. What've you got? It's nice to think things but I'm dealing in actual information here, not just what I think.

And I think the censorship of those sites have more to do of propping up their own domestic industries than controlling thought and news (multimillion companies/services like Baidu, Hudong, Weibo, Youku, Tuduo, Renren, etc. owe most of their success to Chinese limiting access of foreign tech companies), as critical Chinese papers/magazines like Caixin and Southern Weekend have demonstrated (not to mention the unbridled coverage by NPR and NYT).

I think that characterizing news coverage as "unbridled" is extremely misleading. Remember the thread about Dateline's coverage of china's "Ghost Cities" and their empty malls? Several times during the story the reporters were stopped by police from going into areas that you would expect to be public. The fact that the NYT and NPR are able to churn out stories about China doesn't prove much either, heck, CHINESE newspapers are able to churn out stories about China. It's the type of stories and the CHINESE access to those stories that matters more. Then again even if the Chinese had access to them I'm somehow guessing the poorer Chinese would not be able to read them in English.

Mr. Hicks - Actually as countries industrialize the birth rate tends to go down. As Numble just mentioned Shanghai (and other urban centers) have very low birth rates and would likely do so with or without "one child." However, ending forced sterilizations and involuntary abortions as government policy would be good in my opinion, yes.

 

[ThisWreckage]

What about South Korea? I thought I recalled an article that stated that eventually South Korea will surpass Japan when it comes to influence because of Japan's population crisis.

 

[numble]

Howso? Denying people access to information to the point that people are ignorant of basic historical facts seems comparable. Yes North Korea is considerably more isolated and considerably more closed but dismissing it just "because" is lazy.



Source? I provided a news source that directly contradicts this claim. What've you got? It's nice to think things but I'm dealing in actual information here, not just what I think.



I think that characterizing news coverage as "unbridled" is extremely misleading. Remember the thread about Dateline's coverage of china's "Ghost Cities" and their empty malls? Several times during the story the reporters were stopped by police from going into areas that you would expect to be public. The fact that the NYT and NPR are able to churn out stories about China doesn't prove much either, heck, CHINESE newspapers are able to churn out stories about China. It's the type of stories and the CHINESE access to those stories that matters more. Then again even if the Chinese had access to them I'm somehow guessing the poorer Chinese would not be able to read them in English.

Mr. Hicks - Actually as countries industrialize the birth rate tends to go down. As Numble just mention Shanghai (and other urban centers) have very low birth rates and would likely do so with or without "one child." However, ending forced sterilizations and involuntary abortions as government policy would be good in my opinion, yes.

They weren't stopped by the police, they were stopped by the mall cops.

I already said Caixin and Southern Weekend. I guess you could browse mopu, weibo, and netease, if you want.

 

[Gaborn]

They weren't stopped by the police, they were stopped by the mall cops.

I already said Caixin and Southern Weekend.

Are they allowed to talk about Tiananmen square? And not just as some sort of feature on the square's history prior to 1989.

 

[zero_suit]

What about South Korea? I thought I recalled an article that stated that eventually South Korea will surpass Japan when it comes to influence because of Japan's population crisis.

Where did you read that? That seems highly unlikely. Japan has about ~80 million more people than South Korea.

 

[ThisWreckage]

Where did you read that? That seems highly unlikely. Japan has about ~80 million more people than South Korea.

I'll try to find it, but I'm not having any luck. I recall the article mentioning emerging businesses like Hyundai, etc. being factors in this.

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

Where did you read that? That seems highly unlikely. Japan has about ~80 million more people than South Korea.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan#Age_structure

It's population is aging which raises concerns about whether enough young people will be working to support those who are retired. Same thing people are saying in this thread about China due to their one child policy.

 

[numble]

Are they allowed to talk about Tiananmen square? And not just as some sort of feature on the square's history prior to 1989.

http://www.google.com/search?q=site:caing.com+六四+风波

 

[Parch]

Let' see...

Iraq
Afghanistan
Iran
Pakistan

Now the Americans will add Turkey to the "to do" list.

 

[Gaborn]

http://www.google.com/search?site:caing.com+六四+风波

I don't have the chinese character set installed. However, considering government policy I'm going to assume the answer is no.

 

[_Xenon_]

Are they allowed to talk about Tiananmen square? And not just as some sort of feature on the square's history prior to 1989.

I'm not sure why you are so concerned about the 1989 clash. I mean do you care about how your founding fathers got their land from native Americans? Do you think your government is the same as the one before your civil war? Heck I mean according to this video 1/5 of your people can't point out your country on a world map (I'm not sure if it's true though) but you are still doing fine isn't it?

I'm not defending censorship though, but I don't think sticking with a 20 yo incident is helping either.

 

[delirium]

So you actually get the idea. Yes a defensive power is needed because you can't let the others do whatever they want, but you DO NOT need military bases ALL OVER the planet and have to cut your education / healthcare / social security to make up for it. Best defense is offense? Sure but that only works in soccer games.

You assume those military bases are there just for show? What American military power projection provides Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan is a huge boon to American international politics. Same with military bases in the Middle East. You think China has the same political clout in those areas in which it has no military bases to back up its rhetoric?

the awesome thing about chinas ruling elite though is that they are highly educated/intelligent engineers/scientists/.... for the most part

compare that to the countless braindead moron US politicians and you can see democracy is not without its faults

hu jintao must have been einstein compared to bush

It doesn't make them better statesmen than lawyers. Are these people really scientist/engineers or politicians with engineering/scientific degrees? Being an engineer myself, I don't think I would make a better ruling elite than a lawyer would.

 

[kingofthedead45]

I read this as "Charlie Sheen" lol.

As did I my friend, as did I.

 

[elrechazado]

I'm not sure why you are so concerned about the 1989 clash. I mean do you care about how your founding fathers got their land from native Americans? Do you think your government is the same as the one before your civil war? Heck I mean according to this video 1/5 of your people can't point out your country on a world map (I'm not sure if it's true though) but you are still doing fine isn't it?

Way to miss the point and what the hell are you talking about with the map shit? The point was that one can talk about any of those things you mentioned and not be imprisoned or arrested in this country.

 

[Gaborn]

I'm not sure why you are so concerned about the 1989 clash. I mean do you care about how your founding fathers got their land from native Americans? Do you think your government is the same as the one before your civil war? Heck I mean according to this video 1/5 of your people can't point out your country on a world map (I'm not sure if it's true though) but you are still doing fine isn't it?

I care because it's part of history. I care about the good the US does, and I care about the bad. Our nation has a long and tortured history that I don't think we should whitewash away or get rid of because it's part of what defines us. What if textbooks started deleting coverage of the Trail of Tears and our treatment of native Americans? Slavery? Probably just bringing over some "hired help." The Civil War? a mere shouting match! No.

I don't want to live in a country that can't allow it's own people to see it's faults. That can't come to us, even if it ends up being years later and says that we conducted eugenics experiments at Tuskegee and in Guatemala. I don't want to live in a country so distressed by it's own behavior, so determined to wipe out it's own misdeeds that it erases history.

 

[_Xenon_]

Way to miss the point. The point was that one can talk about any of those things you mentioned and not be imprisoned or arrested in this country.

Sure, but the point is do the Chinese people have an accurate view of China and the rest of the world when their view is distorted with censorship?

He's talking about our view of China not free speech.

I care because it's part of history. I care about the good the US does, and I care about the bad. Our nation has a long and tortured history that I don't think we should whitewash away or get rid of because it's part of what defines us. What if textbooks started deleting coverage of the Trail of Tears and our treatment of native Americans? Slavery? Probably just bringing over some "hired help." The Civil War? a mere shouting match! No.

I don't want to live in a country that can't allow it's own people to see it's faults. That can't come to us, even if it ends up being years later and says that we conducted eugenics experiments at Tuskegee and in Guatemala. I don't want to live in a country so distressed by it's own behavior, so determined to wipe out it's own misdeeds that it erases history.

That's good you are not living in China and nobody is forcing you to, but we are not talking about how awesome or not the life in China is either. I think we are talking about what the government should focus on.

 

[Spokker]

Way to miss the point. The point was that one could talk about any of those things you mentioned and not be imprisoned or arrested.

The underlying theme of his posts, however, is that the Chinese won't necessarily care about not being able to talk about those things if they are seeing high growth. Lack of freedom isn't the sole reason why people revolt. It's poverty and famine. Some Americans are more likely to revolt because they can't jerk off to lolicon, but the majority Chinese may not care if they can talk about past incidents if they experience upward mobility.

Jackie Chan got in trouble for saying that Chinese people need to be controlled. He may have a point, but he would know better than I.

Maybe Jackie Chan is in this thread right now.

 

[elrechazado]

He's talking about our view of China not free speech.

And how is the view of china not affected by the restrictions on what those views can be? You are still missing the point.

 

[numble]

Way to miss the point. The point was that one could talk about any of those things you mentioned and not be imprisoned or arrested.

But you can talk about those things without being imprisoned or arrested? I sat in on a Peking University Law School class where the Chinese (Con Law) professor argued his theory to students that the 1989 incident was when the people became disconnected with the party.

And I've talked about Tiananmen with a lot of Chinese in China, from human/civil rights lawyers, to students and migrant workers. I've even talked to a soldier on a train about their suppression of Uyghur "terrorists."

 

[Gaborn]

And how is the view of china not affected by the restrictions on what those views can be? You are still missing the point.

Bingo! I mean, if all the German people knew about Hitler was his economic reforms and making Germany a military power he might STILL be viewed as a genius man who was very popular. Imagine if Germans never learned about the Holocaust in schools. How do you think that would affect Germany's perspective of Hitler?

Numble - Incident? call it what it was. A massacre. A slaughter.

 

[_Xenon_]

And how is the view of china not affected by the restrictions on what those views can be? You are still missing the point.

Then we must have different point. My point is what matters for joe average RIGHT NOW is how to make money not what was going on 20 years ago.

 

[elrechazado]

But you can talk about those things without being imprisoned or arrested? I sat in on a Peking University Law School class where the Chinese (Con Law) professor argued his theory to students that the 1989 incident was when the people became disconnected with the party.

And I've talked about Tiananmen with a lot of Chinese in China, from human/civil rights lawyers, to students and migrant workers. I've even talked to a soldier on a train about their suppression of Uyghur "terrorists."

You'll have to explain a large number of non exceptions to the rule I've posited.

 

[Spokker]

And I've talked about Tiananmen with a lot of Chinese in China, from human/civil rights lawyers, to students and migrant workers. I've even talked to a soldier on a train about their suppression of Uyghur "terrorists."

What I heard from a professor who studies the Chinese economy, it tends to be a lot looser in China in terms of what you can and cannot talk about now. Basically, talking about the past is tolerated as long as you aren't causing any real trouble in the present. But those with more knowledge can correct me if I got that wrong.

 

[numble]

You'll have to explain a large number of non exceptions to the rule I've posited.

You can discuss, but not try to politically mobilize. There are no arrests for discussion. That's the gist of the rule.

 

[elrechazado]

You can discuss, but not try to politically mobilize. There are no arrests for discussion. That's the gist of the rule.

And this is defensible as a distinction how?

 

[Gaborn]

You can discuss, but not try to politically mobilize. There are no arrests for discussion. That's the gist of the rule.

Are you allowed to say "I think the chinese government was wrong to slaughter pro-democracy protestors in 1989 and that Democracy should be allowed in China"?

 

[numble]

And this is defensible as a distinction how?

Because we are not talking about politics, but about knowledge and discussion.

 

[elrechazado]

Because we are not talking about politics, but about knowledge and discussion.

See my previous response, as well as gaborn's, on the value of institutional knowledge.

 

[GTP_Daverytimes]

And you're reasoning for that is? Did the US fall down when Japan's economic bubble burst in the 90s? Companies will just move to another country with a cheap labor pool.

Are you shitting me, if China falls America is right behind them. Anyone in America wishing for China to fall knows no better.

 

[Spokker]

And this is defensible as a distinction how?

I don't know. Ask China. It wouldn't be defensible for the United States and our culture. But it's up to Chinese citizens to fight for freedom if that is what they want.

 

[Puddles]

So? It is bound to happen as hundreds of millions of its citizens are becoming middle-class.

And millions of Americans are dropping out of the middle class.

 

[Gaborn]

I don't know. Ask China. It wouldn't be defensible for the United States and our culture. But it's up to Chinese citizens to fight for freedom if that is what they want.

And they ARE trying. Some dissidents came up with this wonderful video/song as a fuck you to the government censorship (the annotations explain it as well as translate)

 

[Spokker]

And they ARE trying. Some dissidents came up with this wonderful video/song as a fuck you to the government censorship (the annotations explain it as well as translate)

There is no doubt that there are some groups fighting right now. But the issue at hand is whether or not the majority of the Chinese will join them even if they are seeing living standards rise.

 

[Ivan A Nguyen]

So we can sit back and have it good like Canada now? I'll be ok with that.

 

[Gaborn]

There is no doubt that there are some groups fighting right now. But the issue at hand is whether or not the majority of the Chinese will join them even if they are seeing living standards rise.

agreed, I think it's going to be a long hard slog and the government will fight it as long as possible.

 

[numble]

And they ARE trying. Some dissidents came up with this wonderful video/song as a fuck you to the government censorship (the annotations explain it as well as translate)

I love Chinese netizens, but I wouldn't call the people that made that video dissidents. Not everybody that makes gifs and videos on netease/mopu/weibo making fun of the government is a dissident. A friend at Princeton did a study on the effect of this video as part of her thesis, and the conclusion was that its just a tongue-in-cheek viral meme poking fun at the government.

If you're really interested in dissident stuff, HRIC (hrichina.org (though they have a heavier focus on expat dissidents), follow some twitter/weibo feeds, or if just interested in the development of the press in China, you can look at CMP http://cmp.hku.hk/. If you're interested in what people are discussing in China, news or otherwise you can look at ESWN http://www.zonaeuropa.com/weblog.htm or even Chinasmack http://chinasmack.com or Ministry of Tofu http://www.ministryoftofu.com/.

I think you have a limited view of things if you think it is at all comparable to North Korea.

 

[Calculon]

... where did you get this? My family have 3 apartments in Shanghai but I never know that!

Having an apartment and owning a home are two different things. The CRBC instituted it this year as an attempt to cool off speculation on housing prices in an attempt to avert a credit crunch.

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prop...to-impose-50-down-payment-on-china-s-home-buy

Like I said earlier, I'm not happy about the prospect of a chinese economic implosion, I just don't see how it can be averted given the way the government is incestuously investing a large percentage of their money right now.

Even if they do have a downturn, it's not like it will be the end of China. As others have pointed out it is impossible to maintain such huge economic growth every year.

 

[numble]

Having an apartment and owning a home are two different things. The CRBC instituted it this year as an attempt to cool off speculation on housing prices in an attempt to avert a credit crunch.

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prop...to-impose-50-down-payment-on-china-s-home-buy

Like I said earlier, I'm not happy about the prospect of a chinese economic implosion, I just don't see how it can be averted given the way the government is incestuously investing a large percentage of their money right now.

Even if they do have a downturn, it's not like it will be the end of China. As others have pointed out it is impossible to maintain such huge economic growth every year.

"Having an apartment" in China is the same as owning a home. People buy apartments (they should probably be calling them condominiums), and constant construction/investment in apartments are the cause for the rise of property prices.

 

[MidnightScott]

Well our companies do outsource all the jobs over there because it's cheap labor. So it's no surprise that they would pass us.

 

[Slayer-33]

We need to cut military spending by 60% man, invest in the country/infrastructure/education/renewable energy of all types/projects.

 

[MidnightScott]

We need to cut military spending by 60% man, invest in the country/infrastructure/education/renewable energy of all types/projects.

No we don't. My brother is in the air force. There aren't any jobs for people who never got an education before they entered in the service...

What they need to do is crack down on how the government wastes money so much. But they never will.

EDIT: The news was talking about how Apple's stock gained a huge boost the other day. They even mentioned how there is a fake Apple store in China. lol

 

[Phobophile]

No we don't. My brother is in the air force. There aren't any jobs for people who never got an education before they entered in the service...

What they need to do is crack down on how the government wastes money so much. But they never will.

EDIT: The news was talking about how Apple's stock gained a huge boost the other day. They even mentioned how there is a fake Apple store in China. lol

They WILL have jobs doing construction if we fucking fix our goddamned roads and bridges.

 

[SpacLock]

It's not the weapons, money, political influence, etc. that makes you a super power.

It's all about Olympic Gold Medals, son.

 

[WARCOCK]

As an american, I don't care if we get overtaken,but id rather it not be by china

I feel the same way. I personally would like to see a synergistic, harmonious EU or even a federal EU lead the world instead of either China or the US.

 

[SiteSeer]

I feel the same way. I personally would like to see a synergistic, harmonious EU or even a federal EU lead the world instead of either China or the US.

if history is anything to go by, that would be the least appealing thing for those 'lead'.