I'm not sure, As a Chinese gamer myself. I can see PS4 being more popular than Xbox one among hardcore console gamers, due to MS screw it up with DRM and being less powerful etc, but I don't think Xbox as a brand is much weaker than PlayStation in China.
And I'd say Chinese gamer's taste are not that close to Japanese gamer's. like, Monster Hunter is very popular, but Halo is equally popular too. and call of duty more welcomed them both above. and I can say elder scroll is more popular than FF here since last gen
That being said, I don't believe the number of hardcore gamers in China is great enough to call itself a market. and even with the ban lifted, I doubt the gov will allow to have video game advertise outside of websites and game magazines, there's no big gamer retailers like EB or gamestop as well. there's few ways the consoles can reach the masses.
As for the PS4, XBox One and Wii U. My opinion is PS4 does not stood a chance, simply because it's a gamer's console, which is the last thing you want to be when trying to tap Chinese market, most Chinese parents are anti-gaming and they are the one with buying powers, their kids (Even maybe already in Uni with a part time Job) unlikely able to afford one themselves. Which is why most Chinese youth gaming on PC, you tell your parents you need one for your uni work, they will happily buy you one, you don't tell them what you actually want the PC for.
Xbox one may have a slim chance in this regard if it able to have local partners on on demand Movie and TV, or maybe just partner with Tecent as a local agent. but it will be much more expensive then other TV boxes. Kinect may have certain appealing to adults because unlike in Japan, Most Chinese family in cities have big enough room to play it. but the cities don't have enough spaces for people to exercise outside. still the price having to be really affordable for people to even consider it (like at about 200 USD)
